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Portucel presentation Investor Relations

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Page 1: Portucel presentation Investor Relations

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April 2013

April 2013

Confidential

DRAFT

Confidential 

Page 2: Portucel presentation Investor Relations

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April 2013 1

Disclaimer

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” regarding Portucel SA (“Portucel”) and its future business. Such statements are not historical facts and may include opinions and expectations about management’s confidence and strategies as well as details of management’s expectations regarding Portucel’s future financial position and results of operations, Portucel’s strategy, plans, objectives, goals and targets, future developments in the markets in which Portucel participates or is seeking to participate or anticipated regulatory changes in the markets in which Portuceloperates or intends to operate. Although Portucel believes its opinions and expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, not all of which will be exhaustively explored in this presentation or elsewhere. Accordingly, you should not regard such statements as representations as to whether such anticipated events will occur nor that expected objectives will be achieved. You are reminded that all forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and for the avoidance of doubt Portucel does not undertake to update any such statement made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. For the avoidance of doubt, Portucel does not accept any liability in respect of any such forward-looking statements.

This presentation contains developed estimates regarding the relevant segments of the paper industry, our position in the industry, our market share and the market shares of various industry participants based on experience, our own investigation of market conditions and our review of industry publications, including information made available to the public by our competitors. While we have examined and relied upon certain market or other industry data from external sources as the basis of our estimates, we have not verified that data independently. We cannot assure you of the accuracy and completeness of such data. While we believe our internal estimates to be reasonable, these estimates have not been verified by any independent sources we cannot assure their accuracy. Our estimates involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on various factors.

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April 2013 2

Portucel sells to around 115 countries in 5 continents

Forest Pulp Paper Sales Energy

Production capacity of 1.4mt

Production capacity of 1.6mt

120,000 ha of forest under management in

Portugal

Network of c.4,400 points of delivery

13 commercial subsidiaries

2.5 TWh of electricity capacity

2012 Revenue: €1.5bn 2012 EBITDA: €385mn

Leading European UWF manufacturer with strong integration into forestry, pulp and energy

Produces more energy than it

consumes65,000 ha owned by

Portucel95% sold outside

Portugalc.0.25mt sold

externally

Source: Company information.

Company snapshot

1. Overview

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April 2013

Consolidated revenues by division1

Portugal17%

Germany12%

Spain9%

France10% Italy

6%

UK7%

Holland4%

America11%

Other24%

Paper79%

Pulp8%

Energy12%

Other1%

3

83% of revenues from outside Portugal. Portuguese revenues primarily attributed to energy

Company snapshot

1. Overview

Source: Company information.1 Relates to 2012. Geographic split related to Pulp, Paper and Energy revenues.

Revenues by destination1

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April 2013 4

Controlling shareholder - Semapa Group

Forestry, pulp, paper and energy

Cement + RMC + Aggregates + Pre Cast Concrete Waste treatment

2012 Revenues: €1,502mn

2012 EBITDA: €385mn

2012 Revenues: €1,953mn1

2012 EBITDA: €447mn1

Market Cap.: €0.8bn2

Consolidated net debt: €1.6bn3

Net debt / 2012 PF EBITDA: 3.5x3

1 Revenues as reported with 51% proportional consolidation of Secil for the 1st quarter and 100% thereafter. EBITDA refers to recurrent EBITDA. Includes negative €12mn holding costs. 2 As at 10 April 2013.3 Excluding Treasury shares (both at Portucel and at Semapa level). PF EBITDA of €455mn (including 100% of Secil for the full year). 4 PF for 100% of Secil Group for the FY plus 50% of the Supremo Group.

2012 Revenues: €473mn4

2012 EBITDA: €72mn4

2012 Revenues: €36mn

2012 EBITDA: €9mn

81% 100%

Listed on the Euronext Lisbon

Included in main local index – the PSI 20

96%

Listed on the Euronext LisbonIncluded in main local index – the PSI 20

19% free floatMarket cap. €1.9bn2

Portucel has been majority owned by Semapa since 2004

1. Overview

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April 2013 5

2. Portucel investment proposition

A leading manufacturer in an attractive segment of the paper industry1

Geographically diversified and broad customer base3

Well-invested asset base6

Integrated business model4

A leading producer of green energy – more than meets own energy requirements7

Growth through differentiation and superior offering2

Business model delivering high profitability8

Strong and consistent EBITDA to cash conversion rate9

Attractive pulp expansion opportunity10

Key company highlights

Access to raw materials5

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Portucel

6

2. Portucel investment proposition

Source: Company information, Risi.1 To be closed or sold.

No. 1 in European UWF fine paper. As well as being integrated into pulp and paper, Portucelhas the largest and most modern mills in Europe

Portucel13%

Mondi12%

StoraEnso11%

UPM10%

IP9%

Other45%

European uncoated fine paper - total est. capacity

1. A leading manufacturer in an attractive segment of the paper industry1

Uncoated woodfree (UWF) European mills

Capacity,1,000 t/a

UPM

Arctic paper

Zicuñaga

Clairefontaine

Mondi

Sappi

International Paper

Metsa

Non Integrated

Stora Enso

Integrated

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

SetúbalFigueira da Foz

Everbal

KuusankoskiDocelles1

Nordland

Kostrzyn Munkedal

Zicuñaga

Mandeure

Ruzomberok SyktyvkarKematen

Saillat Kwidzyn Svetogorsk

Husum

Veitsiluoto Nymolla Varkaus

Stockstadt

Theresienthal

Clairefontaine

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2. Portucel investment proposition

1. A leading manufacturer in an attractive segment of the paper industry1

Significant focus on the value–added premium segment and Cut-size and Folio vs. Reels. High mill brand share of sales

7

Mill brand sales evolution

37%

32% 32%

36%

41%

45%

52%

59%

63%

60% 59%

64%

62%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Company information.

Portucel gaining market share

56%

26%

18% 8%

21%

18%

9%

22%

20%

Sales mix 2011 2012Estimated market share

Increase

1%

1%

2%

Cut-size Folio Reels

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April 2013

17%

9%

22%

20%

45%

Total

Reels

Folio

Cut-size

Premium

8

6. Growth through differentiation and superior offering

Source: Company information, Cepifine.1 Including Portucel.2 UWF market growth in Europe (2012 over 2011).

Portucel estimated market share in Europe – 2012Portucel

Europe industry average1

Premium Products

Sheets

Mill Brands

Operating Rates

55%

82%

62%

100%

17% (e)

69%

25% (e)

93%

Growth in 20122 +1% -3.6%

55% of business in premium products – highest quality and priced above standard market prices – and 62% in Mill Brands (own brands)

2

2. Portucel investment proposition

+

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4.3%

6.3%6.7%

8.0% 8.1%

9.3%

10.6%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

9

Share in Europe for UWF Cut-size < 80 g/m² Portucel Cut-size est. market share by basis weight in 2011

Source: CEPIFINE basis weight surveys of deliveries to EU27+NO+CH and Company information.Note: Europe relates to EU27 + NO + CH.

62%

13% 13%18%

60–80 gsm 80 gsm 90–120 gsm Total

Low basis weight market share is increasing continuously. Portucel, due to its technology, cost, brand and positioning, is winning in the market place

6. Growth through differentiation and superior offering2

2. Portucel investment proposition

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America13%

Germany12%

France12%

Spain11%Italy

8%

UK8%

Holland3%

Other Europe

13%

Other15%

Portugal5%

Germany32%

Spain11%

Poland15%

Holland12%

Other Europe

23%

Other2%

Portugal5%

10

2. Geographically diversified and broad customer base3

Portucel exports 95% of its pulp and paper production. Growing sales outside Europe

95% of total pulp sales in 2012 outside Portugal Majority of pulp sold to specialty paper and decor

95% of 2012 paper sales outside Portugal c.4,400 points of delivery

Paper – external sales

Portucel exports 95% of its pulp and paper production. Growing sales outside Europe

Pulp – external sales

Source: Company information.

2. Portucel investment proposition

€1,193mn €122mn

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April 2013 11

4. Integrated business model

Forestry EnergyPulp mills Paper mills Distribution

4

Production capacity: 1.4mt of pulp per year

Production capacity: 1.6mt

of paper per year

120 thousand hectares of forest under management

c.4,400 points of delivery

2.5 TWh of electricity capacity

.

Produces more energy than it

consumesc.15% of wood needs

80% of pulp integrated into paper

The group has three productive centres: two of them are integrated pulp and paper mills and the third is a market pulp mill. They are all partially supplied with Eucalyptus from the group’s own forests, which are certified by both FSC and PEFC schemes

2. Portucel investment proposition

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April 2013 12

Portucel sources most of its wood from Portugal and Spain

Wood purchase (m3)

Source: Company information.

0.5 0.8

0.5 0.4

2.9

3.2 4.0 3.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2009 2010 2011 2012

Own wood Purchased

4.5 3.4 4.1 3.9

The Group manages 120 thousand ha of land in Portugal:

73% is Eucalyptus Globulus

Forest management is certified by FSC® (CO10852) and PEFC

Largest producer of eucalyptus and pine in Portugal and an important producer of cork

€109m of biological assets on balance sheet as at December 2012

Dedicated research forest institute

Largest European certified forest nursery

Committed to forest fire protection, through sound silviculture practices and dedicated fire suppression teams

millions

4. Access to raw materials 5

2. Portucel investment proposition

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67

129 130

43 1952

247

505

96

33 300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

13

Source: Company information.Note: Data as per Annual Management Reports.

Capex driven by investments in new paper mill, natural gas and biomass power plants

High quality asset base reinforced by substantial investments

Over €1.3bn invested in tangible assets since 2002 Asset investment focus

Value-chain integration

Competitiveness of Eucalyptus Globulus pulp assets

Green energy from biomass

Cost and market leadership in UWF

Continuous cost reduction

3. Well-invested asset base6

2. Portucel investment proposition

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April 2013 14

7. A leading producer of green energy 7

Energy represented 12% of the Group’s net sales in 2012; the power generated at the three mills makes the Group more than self-sufficient for its industrial activities

901

169 337

543

471

76

2008 2009 2010 2010 2012

Biomass Natural Gas Fuel

Energy capacity evolution 2012 Energy production split by fuel type(GWh)

Biomass65%Natural Gas

32%

Fuel 3%

Source: Company information.

2. Portucel investment proposition

Setubal Cacia / Setubal

Figueira Figueira

2.5TWh / annum of capacity

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April 2013 15

8. Business model delivering high profitability8

Source: Company information.Note: The information above has been sourced from the publicly available financial reports of the companies considered. In each case, we have applied the definition of EBITDA as described therein, with the

exception of when it was not disclosed, in which case, we have estimated EBITDA by taking recurrent operating profit + D&A. These companies, as well as other companies in the industry, may calculate EBITDA differently, thereby limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure.

1 Other than for Portucel, financials represent the relevant division of each company.

EBITDA margins well above industry average

2. Portucel investment proposition

Average

Portucel EBITDA margin vs industry1

20.3

%

17.7

%

22.3

%

16.0

%

NA 16.1

%

7.8%

1.5%

28.9

%

18.4

%

20.7

%

21.5

%

8.5%

4.4%

8.5%

9.5%

25.9

%

21.6

%

19.2

%

21.6

%

10.9

%

7.1%

7.6%

1.5%

25.7

%

20.6

%

15.5

%

16.8

%

10.1

%

7.6%

9.8%

5.3%

Portucel Group Company A Company B Company C Company D Company E Company F Company G

2009 2010 2011 2012

Average: 25.2%

Average: 4.4%

Average: 19.6%

Average: 8.4%Average: 9.8%

Average: 8.8%

Average: 19.4% Average: 19.0%

na

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April 2013

25.8%23.6% 25.7% 24.1%

2.2% 1.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

EBITDAmargin

EBITDA -Maintenancecapex margin

EBITDAmargin

EBITDA -Maintenancecapex margin

Margin Maintenance capex

16

9. Strong and consistent EBITDA to cash conversion rate 9

Last 9 years average 2012A

Best in class cash generation profile

EBITDA and EBITDA - Capex margins

Average EBITDA – maintenance capexmargin well above 20%

Including all capex, margin of 14% over the last 9 years despite Setúbalinvestment

Strong performance in 2012

− EBITDA minus total capex of €355mn

− EBITDA minus maintenance capexmargin of 24.1%

2. Portucel investment proposition

Source: Company information.

Page 18: Portucel presentation Investor Relations

April 2013 17

8. Strong and consistent EBITDA to cash conversion rate 9

Source: Company information.Note: The information above has been sourced from the publicly available financial reports of the companies considered. In each case, we have applied the definition of EBITDA as described therein, with the

exception of when it was not disclosed, in which case, we have estimated EBITDA by taking recurrent operating profit + D&A. These companies, as well as other companies in the industry, may calculate EBITDA differently, thereby limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure.For all companies considered, financials relate to Group data.

1 Defined as: (EBITDA – Capex) / sales. “n.m.” represents Capex > EBITDA.

EBITDA – Capex margins well above industry average

3

2. Portucel investment proposition

Portucel EBITDA – Capex margin vs industry1

nm 2.4%

17.9

%

14.7

%

4.3%

10.8

%

4.7%

nm22.0

%

8.7%

15.3

%

10.8

%

7.9%

12.2

%

8.2%

9.2%

23.7

%

12.2

%

16.2

%

9.4%

7.8%

10.4

%

7.7%

3.3%

23.7

%

10.8

%

9.7%

7.6%

4.9%

8.9%

6.5%

5.7%

Portucel Group Company A Company B Company C Company D Company E Company F Company G

2009 2010 2011 2012

Average: 23.1%

Average: 6.1%

Average: 8.5%

Average: 6.8%Average: 6.2%

Average: 10.6%

Average: 14.8%

Average: 10.6%

Average

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April 2013 18

2. Portucel investment proposition

Mozambique

Attractive pulp expansion opportunity10

Portucel has an attractive option to grow in pulp

Granted the right by the Government of Mozambique to explore and develop an area of

c.356,000 ha into a forest base and a pulp mill

Two permits granted:

− One to develop 173,000 ha in the region of Zambezia

− Another one to develop 183,000 ha in Manica

273,000 ha is earmarked for eucalyptus plantation

Currently conducting field tests of the two locations, assessing logistics and overall feasibility

Portucel is the only pulp and paper company globally that has been granted such permit

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(€m unless otherwise stated, FYE 31 Dec) Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012

Revenues 1,095 1,385 1,488 1,502

EBITDA1 222 400 385 385

% of revenues 20.3% 28.9% 25.9% 25.7%

EBIT2 132 278 266 286

% of revenues 12.1% 20.1% 17.9% 19.1%

Capex3 505 96 33 30

% of revenues 46.1% 6.9% 2.2% 2.0%

EBITDA - Capex (283) 305 352 355

% of revenues n.m. 22.0% 23.7% 23.7%

Mainly driven by the start-up of the new paper mill in Setubal

Capex related to the new Setubal mill, natural gas and biomass power plants

19

3. Financial performance

Financial overview

Source: Company information.1 Calculated as: operating results + depreciation + provisions.2 Represents operating results. 3 Data as per Annual Management Reports.

Portucel consolidated key financials

Consistent and high level of cash flow

A

A

B

B

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700 687

463

364

2009 2010 2011 2012

20

Significant deleveraging since 2009 following completion of capital expansion plan. Furtherdeleveraging since Q3 2012 - net debt down from €489m as of end September 2012 to €364m asof end December 2012

Dividends1 and share buybacksNet debt(€m)

79

180

165

2

47

81

180

15

212

2009 2010 2011 2012

Dividends Buybacks

Source: Company annual and quarterly reports.1 Dividends as at year of actual payment.

(€m)

3. Financial performance

Deleveraging and returning cash to shareholders

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Share Price (€)

Number of shares (m)

Market capitalisation

Net debt

Other adjustments

Enterprise value

Multiples

EV / EBITDA

EV / EBIT

P / E

2.63

720

1,894

364

4

2012A

5.9x

7.9x

9.0x

2,261

Apr-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 May-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Apr-13

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

33.1%

(5.2%)

(12.3%)

(2.9%)

Portucel Euro STOXXPortugal PSI General MSCI Paper & Forest Products

21

Capitalisation and share price performance

Source: Share price based on FactSet as of 10 April 2013.1 Incudes pension adjustments, minority interest and associates investments. 2012 EBITDA €385mn, EBIT €286mn, Net earnings €211mn.

Portucel outperforming local, European, and Paper and Forestry indices, as investors recognise strong cash generation capabilities

Market capitalisation 3 year share price performance(€ millions except share price data and trading multiples)

1

3. Financial performance

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As of Dec-12, (€ millions)

Portucel Amount Maturity Security x EBITDACash and cash equivalents (329)

Bank loan 56 2018 Unsecured 0.1xBank loan 28 2021 Unsecured 0.1xBank loan 85 2024 Unsecured 0.2xBond loan 200 2013 Unsecured 0.5xBond loan 100 2015 Unsecured 0.3xBond loan 100 2015 Unsecured 0.3xCommercial paper and other2 124 2015 Unsecured 0.3xTotal debt 693 1.8xNet debt 364 0.9x

LTM EBITDA 385

Total debt / EBITDA 1.8xNet debt / EBITDA 0.9x

22

Capital structure

Portucel current capital structure

Conservative financial profile. Dependent on Portuguese banks

Maturity profile

220

60

305

35 74

(329)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

100

200

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 >2016

Debt Cash

1 Cash balance as of 31 December 2012 (excluding Treasury shares).2 Remaining balance of bank and bond loans.

22

1

2

(€ in millions)

1 Cash balance as of 31 December 2012 (excluding Treasury shares).2 Includes overdraft (€0.4m) + unrecognized issue costs (€1m).3 Date represents final year of maturity.4 Bank loans are amortized proportionately over remaining years.5 €40m maturing in 2014.

1

3. Financial performance

3

5

4

4

4