PORT MORESBY TCWC 2014-2016 RECENT AND

CURRENT ACTIVITIES

16th RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee Meeting

Honiara, Solomon Islands, 29 August – 02 September 2016

Mr. Jimmy GOMOGA

ASSISTANT DIRECTOR

FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE

PH: +675 324 4583

FAX: +675 325 5544

Mobile: +675 6812484

EMAIL: jgomoga@icloud.com

Presented by

Introduction

• Recent and Current Activities

• RIMES Sub Regional Hub

• Summary & Conclusions

RECENT & CURRENT

ACTIVITIES

Seasonal & Monthly Variation of

Tropical Cyclones

• On the average, PNG receives one tropical

cyclone a season

• Many of these have occurred in Jan/

February

• 2002: TC Upia late in the season, May -

June

• 2007: TC Guba early in the season, Nov

• 2014: TC Ita named at 10pm on 5 April 2014

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Fre

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cy o

f T

rop

ical

Cyclo

nes

Months

Monthly Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93 - 2015/16

Monthly Total

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Nu

mb

er

of

Tro

pic

al C

yclo

nes

Season

Seasonal Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93 - 2015/16

Seasonal Total

Seasonal Average

Past Disasters Related to

Weather & Climate • 1997/98 El Nino – Major Drought, Migration,

Wakeup call to take note!

• 2007 TC Guba – Flooding, over 200 deaths,

Bridges, roads and houses washed away, 145,000

people affected, Estimated Cost: $US71.4 million.

• 2012 Gale Warning for Vitiaz Strait was issued 5

days before the sinking of Rabaul Queen which

claimed more than 300 lives. Commission of Inquiry

and Court Case, NWS was cleared.

• April 2014: TC Ita, 54, 414 people affected, no

deaths, Estimated Cost: $US 10 million.

• March 2015: TC Nathan, West New Britain Flooding

and destruction of Oil Palms, $US Several Millions.

TC Nathan: March 2015

Forecasting Tools Available Satellite Images (IR, Microwave, VIS)

Available Numerical Models (BOM, 12k, 70 levels)

Near real time observations from satellites – Himawari 8

RANET, EMWIN, LRIT (Microwave prod.)

Real time observations from Observations network

SMART MET (Finish Met. Service) – Operational in 2014, Weather Forecasting and Risk Mapping Tools – Uses GFS data

SCOPIC – Statistical Model Climate Predictions (BOM)

RIMES WRF (9km) rainfall and temperature forecasts up to 10 days

Communications PNGNWS continues to use TELIKOM Systems (Fiber

Link, unlimited, 2MBPS uplink and downlink), however,

getting the information from and to the remote locations

continue to be a challenge.

EMWIN system, probably the only one still operating in

the Pacific has been maintained and continues to

operate well since installation. The Dish has grown

rusty and requires replacing and system upgraded for

two way communications (downlink and uplink).

PNGNWS do not have these RANET/ Chattee Beetle

systems set up yet. There have been some site testing

and RANET Dish setup, but no further progress has

been made.

HF Radios, PNGNWS continues to use these as

backup systems to the main Telikom telephone/ fax

lines. Again PNGNWS look forward to opportunities to

have these systems upgraded to HF email.

PNGNWS had VSAT communication link into Hawaii

Communications Portal and the system worked very

well, however, local ISP representing the Hawaii

Communications Portal switch to mobile carrier within

the country the dish was turned off. Plans are under

way to have this system upgraded for the end to end

multi-hazard early warning system and the RIMES Sub

Regional Hub for the Pacific.

LRIT has been turned off and awaiting system upgrades,

In the meantime Goes DCS system user Agreement is

been completed for PNGNWS.

PNG has installed five (5) AWS's, however;

communication continues to be a major challenge in

getting the information back to the Headquarters in Port

Moresby. The SIM Card option needs continuous top up to

maintain the mobile link. Second option is through

Satellite; however, the access to these servers where the

data is stored continues to be a challenge and requires

clearance.

PNGNWS communications systems are upgraded to have

independent broadband communications link for the

Nation's Capital in Port Moresby and have terminals

located within key technical agencies (NDC, Geohazards,

and Hydrology) which are under different Departments.

Under the Recurrent Budget the fiber link was upgraded to

2mbps. PNG Government allocated some funding and

Communications and Data Centre projects were initiated .

The Rabaul Queen Court Case is continuing and PNG

National Weather Service was summoned to give

evidence in June 2016. Verdict is yet to be served.

WMO Information System (WIS) PNG Communication & Data Centre Project

Solutions Phase 1: Wireless Broadband for POM (Cost of equipments: USD $ 0.82M)

10

Phase 1: Wireless Broadband for PoM

FM

Radio

Others

TPNG

Network

Center

Fiber

Network

abroad

Email

Server

Submarine

Network

TPNG

Network

Center

Existing Network

Weather

Service

News

Paper

EMTV

News

Paper

EMTVWeather

Service

FM

Radio

Others

Fiber

Network

eLTE Wireless Broadband Network

eLTE Site

Site 2

Terminal

Advantage:1. From Internet to Private network, less nodes, high reliability.

2. From campus network to Wireless Broadband, low latency, high capacity.

3. Flexible expansion, easy for adding receiver sites.

11

Phase 1: Deployment Plan

1. Need to rent the Fiber link, sites facility include tower, power from TPNG.

2. Detail design and Cost should be after the site survey.

3. Frequency Suggestion: 450M, 1.8G

NO. Item QTY

1 eLTE Base Station &

Core network

2

2 eLTE Outdoor

Terminal with WIFI

function

20

3 Switch, Router &

Firewall

4

4 50M Carrier Leased

Line

1

5 Site facility

Rent(Tower, Power)

1

6 Frequency acquisition

Notes:

Phase 2: Container Data Center Solution (Cost of equipments: USD $ 1.58M)

5

Fire fighting

systemPower supply

system

Cooling

system

Cabling

system

Management

system

Container

system

Rack

systemContainer：Standard 20ft shipping container

Rack：One container support 4 IT racks

Cooling：Precious AC, 2+1backup

UPS: 20kVA*3, 2+1 redundancy (30KVA for IT, 10KVA for auxiliary )

Battery: 10 mins

Power：Total 24kW

Density: 6kW/rack（rated）

Phase 2: Container Data Center Solution

6

Main Data Center Disaster Recovery Data Center

Business network

Backup networkIP network

Blade Servers

Fiber Connection

SAN SAN

Huawei E9000

Servers

Huawei

S5500 V3

Fusion Sphere

vCenter ServervCenter Server

Huawei Fusion SphereStorage

Replication

Switch Switch

Operator1

Operator2

DMZExisting Network

Storage

Solution Topology

8

Phase 3: National 14 Branch Offices Communication System and Security Solution

Office Area

Data Center

Area

National Meteorological

Center(NMC)Data Collection Site (14)

Domestic Partners

USG6370 USG6320

USG6330

IPSec VPN

AntiDDoSWorld Meteorological

Center(WMC)

Solution

Add Anti DDOS and antivirus (AV)

isolation at borders for Internet

security.

IPSec VPN for the connection of

NMC, data collection sites and

domestic Partners.

Unified network security

Management in the NMC.

Solution Values

Private VPN networks are isolated

securely.

The solution prevents viruses

professionally and effectively.

The solution controls the range of

security events effectively.

The solution upgrades

vulnerabilities and patches with

unified management.

eSight Network

Manager

FM

Radio

Others

News

Paper

EMTV

AR22002*AR3200

Phase 3: National 14 Branch Offices Communication System and Security Solution (USD $ 1.12 M)

Summary of Project Costs Project phases Quotation

Phase 1 eLTE 0.82 M USD

Phase 2 Container Data Center 1.58 M USD

Phase 3 14 Branch Offices Communication System and

Security Solution

1.12 M USD

ICT Training 1.45 M USD

Sub-Total 4.97 M USD

10% 0.497 USD

Total Quotation 5.47 M USD

Status of the Project DOT Secretary has approved and signed instruments (Mini-

Contract) to engaged Huawei and for NMSA to release 10% of

K18M, promised Government Funding. Only K200, 000.00 has

been paid to the contractor.

Phase 2 in progress with 41% of stage 1: Data Centre completed.

Budget: 6.3% of the planned Budget has been allocated.

RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the

Pacific

Background

5th RIMES Council Meeting, 18 June 2012, New Delhi:

Member States to engage with and facilitate the integration of

other countries into RIMES

Papua New Guinea for the Southwest Pacific region

7th RIMES Council Meeting, 9 July 2015, New Delhi:

Decentralization of RIMES program implementation through sub-

regional mechanisms

2nd RIMES Ministerial Conference, 10 July 2015, New Delhi:

Declared to pursue Papua New Guinea’s proposal

Background contd.

Papua New Guinea’s National Executive Council, 6 August 2015:

Approved PNG’s hosting of the RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for

the Pacific Region

Committed about USD 350,000 to establish a facility to function

as the Hub

Geohazards Management Division and National Weather Service

meeting with RIMES, 29 Nov – 1 Dec 2015

Detailed the features, technical design, and capacity

requirements of the Sub-Regional Hub

Prepared an action plan for establishing the RIMES Sub-

Regional Hub for the Pacific, which shall also function as

Papua New Guinea’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center

Background contd.

Papua New Guinea Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and RIMES

Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific is envisioned to have the

following operational units:

Geological Services: earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption,

landslide

Ocean, Weather and Climate Services: ocean state, extreme

weather, climate variability and change

Hydrological Services: flash flood, riverine flood, storm surge,

rain-induced landslide

Drought and Bushfires

Observation Systems Services

ICT Applications

Societal Applications

Program Support and Administration

Background contd.

Key functions as RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific:

Facilitate identification of EWS gaps and needs of countries in the region that

need external assistance for addressing

Facilitate establishment and maintenance of observing and monitoring

networks in the countries

Downscale RIMES products to make them relevant to the countries

Customize RIMES tools according to national and local contexts

Research and development for delivery of cutting edge technologies

Build capacity of warning information generators on new products and tools

Build capacity of users on application of new products and tools

Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of capacity building activities, and asses

residual gaps

Convene and report to the RIMES Sub-Regional Council on program status

Periodic reporting to the RIMES Council

RIMES Assessment Mission 15-19

August 2015, Papua New Guinea 1) Identified existing facilities and support services for establishing the

facility

2) Engaged with Government departments/ agencies that will be

participating to form the multi-disciplinary Multi-Hazard Early Warning

Center

3) Detailed the mechanism for staffing the Center and Sub-Regional Hub

4) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments for providing geological,

ocean, weather, climate, hydrological, and observation system services

5) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments in ICT and societal

applications, for bridging science-based information providers and users

6) Updated the action plan for establishing the Multi-Hazard Early Warning

Center and Sub-Regional Hub

RIMES Sub-Regional Hub System Design Flow

RIMES Sub-Regional Hub System Design

RIMES Data Management • ECMWF

• NCMRWF

• NCEP

• UK Met

• GiZ

• IRIS, USGS

• Solomon Islands

• Fiji

• Vanuatu

• Tonga

• Samoa

• Cyclone tracks

• Event database

Earthquake and Climate Data Receive/Retrieve from Centers

Data at different timescales

Processing

Downscale (high resolution)

Customize for country

Disseminate daily

Analysis

Model performance evaluation

Calibration

Observation Data Receive continuously from countries

Manual Station observation

Automatic weather station

Processed Observation for Analysis

Quality check

Missing data management

Regularly updated land use/demographic data

Observation Data Useful for

Model verification (Forecast vs reality)

Model forecast improvement

Through observation data assimilation

Long term climate analysis

Trend

Extremes

Disaster Data Historical track information

Disaster event database

Incident report

Loss and Damage

Extent of Impact

Risk analysis

Warning formulation

Decision Support Systems and

Web based warning

Dissemination system

Tsunami and Hydro-met

ShakeCast@RIMES

• 11, November 2012 ThabeikKyin

Event Scenario earthquake

simulation by DMH after added 3

cities building data

Map View in DMH-Shakecast

ShakeCast customized for

Myanmar

ShakeCast @ RIMES

INSPIRE: a computer based, tsunami propagation and risk assessment tool

Evaluates:

Tsunami arrival time

Tsunami amplitude

Tsunami risk

Output:

Inundation map

building collapse

damage ratio (human)

Estimation of potential damage level

INSPIRE Tsunami hazard and risk assessment tool

ESCAPE: a tool for computing the shelter accessibility and planning

evacuation

Helps for evacuation planning:

Where to go?

safest and fastest route

available time

shelter capacity

Basic requirement :

Building inventory (from observations),

hazard map (inundation height), obtained from numerical

analysis

Vulnerability function (from past experience)

Zoning (probability of damage/loss)

Outputs:

Evacuation basin and direction to the shelters

Required evacuation time

ESCAPE Evacuation modeling tool

Flash Flood Warning System

Finding rainfall intensity-

duration thresholds that

have initiated flash floods

in the area

Developing real time and

forecast rainfall database

Developing web-based

system to generate and

disseminate flash flood

advisory

Seasonal Outlook

ECMWF seasonal

forecast (rainfall and

temperature) as input

Conceptual rainfall-

runoff model (e.g.

IHACRES CWI)

employed after

calibration and validation

Discharge forecasted at

Hardinge Bridge

(Ganges) and

Bahadurabad

(Brahmaputra)

Climate Data analysis

Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015

Agro-met Advisory

38

Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015

Bulletin

Agro-met bulletin

includes rainfall and

other derived agro-

met parameters from

ECMWF forecast.

Also generate

automatically a

advisory of 10 days

outlook based on

these parameters

39

Public health

Energy

Ongoing Research

Transform the weather information to a automated

advisory system.

Using pattern based analysis to generate advisory

Use of statistical methods to train the model for past

and generate forecast for the future

Data requirement is huge

Public health data, weather data, other relevant data sets

related to proper training of the model

Ongoing Research

RIMES SUB HUB PROPOSED SITE

Spectrum of Hazards

Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Frosts, Hail

Storms, Floods, Tropical Cyclones, Drought

Marine Warnings – Strong Winds, Gales,

High Seas, Coastal Inundations

Strong wind and Gale Warnings during Dry

Season Months (June & July) and Wet Season

Months (February & March)

Tsunami, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Bush

Fire

Summary In 2014/2015 season Tropical Cyclone

Nathan with combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea.

The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several millions of dollars in the West New Britain Province.

These combined systems also enhanced the El Nino conditions to be established across the Pacific.

In 2015/2016 season, there were no tropical cyclone activity in Port Moresby’s area of responsibility, however, several Gale warning were issued during the peak of the SE Trade season (June – August).

During the period 2014-2016, number of installations took place; the Himawari 8/9 Satellite Receiving system became operation in February 2016 and under the Recurrent Budget Funding, Internet link was upgraded to 2mbps.

The Government released some funding to address the Rabaul Queen Inquiry Recommendations and PNG National Weather Service has started upgrading its Communications and Data Centre facilities. LRIT, RANET, Chattee Beetle and HF email options to be considered for last mile remote communications.

Preliminary Assessment has been completed by RIMES for establishment of country’s multi-hazard early warning centre and the RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Under WMO WIS framework the establishment of RIMES Sub Regional Hub will increase the status of Papua New Guinea from being a National Centre (NC) to Data Collection Product Centre (DCPC).

THANK YOU!