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Populations
Chapter 24
http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html
Human Population
• We have seen factors that influence the growth of populations in general.
• Next we will apply some of these to the human population.
Fig. 24.22
Exponentialgrowth in thehuman population
G = r x N World Population: 2002
N = 6,228,394,430
r = 1.18
G = 73,915,261
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html
Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka
Births - Deaths = r
World Population Events
Time unit Births Deaths Growth
-------------------------------------------------
Year 131,571,719 55,001,289 76,570,430
Month 10,964,310 4,583,441 6,380,869
Day 360,470 150,688 209,782
Hour 15,020 6,279 8,741
Minute 250 105 146
Second 4.2 1.7 2.4
-------------------------------------------------
Fig. 24.25
Examine the population demographics of these countries.
• Sweden
• Mexico
• United States
– Determine G, N and r
• http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
Age structures of three nations
Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
Shrinking Growing Stable
Your assignment• Create a single powerpoint slide containing
– Data on your assigned variable for France, Tanzania and the United States (be sure to include units).
– Explain the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on your variable – OR -
– Explain the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 your variable.
– The name of your group members.
• Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.
Variable Predict1. N, r, and G Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable2. Life expectancy Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable3. Kids/woman Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable4. Infant Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable5. Adult Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable6. Immigration Emigration Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable7. Ecological footprint Change of variable in 2050 vs. today8. Water supply amt./quality Change of variable in 2050 vs. today9. Population density Change of variable in 2050 vs. today10. Land use Change of variable in 2050 vs. today11. Wildness Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
N, r, and G http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.
Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humansannually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)
Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito
Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Example:
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
I.M. Smart
M.E. Too
NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECTANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES
Tanzania France USA
Life
Expectancy
65 yrs 75 yrs 70 yrs
Curing
Malaria
No impact
Increase Decrease
Curing
Heart Disease
Increase Decrease No impact
Next class period we will…
– Present your slides in class and use them for discussion.
– Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on some of these variables.
– Discuss the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 on the other variables.
– This is worth 5 points on the final exam.
Fig. 24.25
Age structures of three nations
Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
Shrinking Growing Stable
Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.
Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humansannually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)
Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito
Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Examine the data you collected
By: Tiffany Tyson, Chantelle Pelzer, and
Emily Brickert
Tanzania France USAN 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000 r Births/1000 population=41
Deaths/1000 population=18
R=23/1000 people
Births/1000 population=13
Deaths/1000 population=9
R=4/1000 people
Births/1000 population=14
Deaths/1000 population=9
R=5/1000 people
G 2000-2010 growth rate will be 2.0%
2000-2010 growth rate will
be 0.4%
2000-2010 growth rate will be 0.9%
Curing
Malaria
The population would increase
Malaria is common in underdeveloped
countries
No impactMalaria isn’t common in developed countries
No impactMalaria isn’t common in
developed countries
Curing
Heart Disease
No Impact Heart Disease effects
mainly developed countries
Would increase the population of adults
Heart Disease effects mainly developed
countries
Would increase the population of adultsHeart Disease effects
mainly developed countries
X=
N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
David Feivor
Tim Molinarolo
Chelsea Enger
Nathan Tock
Tanzania France USA
N (Total Population) 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000
R (Growth Rate) 1.1% -0.3% 0.7%
G (Change In) 396,781 (181,272) 2,051,196
Curing
Malaria
Increase N, r, and G
No Impact No Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Increase N, r, and G
Increase N, r, and G
Increase N, r, and G
G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Mike
Loeffler
Pete
Johnson
Tanzania France USA
G
r
N
864,000
2.4%
36 MIL
300,000
0.5%
60 MIL
2.93 MIL
1.0%
293 MIL
Curing
Malaria
Increase No Impact
No Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
No Impact Increase Increase
By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker
*If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase.
Life Expectancy in Year 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
France Tanzania US
Country
Ag
e in
Yea
rsAge
2
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States &Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart Disease
Tanzania France USA
Life
Expectancy
44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs.
Curing
Malaria
Increase No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease
No Impact Increase Increase
By: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang
Source: US Census Bureau
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Carrie Dietz
Kristin Minter
Jenn Moulton
Cassie Huettl
Ryan Meighan
Tanzania France USA
Life
Expectancy
44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs
Curing
Malaria
Increase Increase No Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Increase Increase Increase
Fertility Rate Per WomanSource: US Census Bureau
No impact for curing heart disease because the women are above childbearing age.
No impact for curing malaria in the USA or France because they are developed countries.
Increase in Tanzania because less children will be dying and pregnant women will have fewer complications.
By Sara Schlough, Kristine Tresemer, Abby Biesterveld
USA France Tanzania
Fertility Rate per woman
2000 – 2025 2.1 2.2
kids/woman
2000 – 2025 1.9 1.8
kids/woman
2000 – 2025 5.5 3.4
kids/woman
Curing Malaria
NO IMPACT
NO IMPACT
INCREASE
Curing Heart Disease
NO IMPACT
NO IMPACT
NO IMPACT
Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States in the year 2000 Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Brittany
Montgomery
And Brittany
Shipman
Tanzania France USA
Women/
Children
7,464/
18,624
23,076/
15,066
104,477/
80,559
Curing
Malaria
Increase No
Impact
No
Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
No Impact
Increase Increase
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Katie McNeely,
Elissa Bauer,
Amy Calhoun,
Nick Cerwin,
Becca Long
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality
112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000
5(male)/
4(female) per 1000
9 (male)/ 7 (female)
per 1000
Curing
Malaria
Decrease Mortality
Decrease Decrease
Curing
Heart Disease
No Impact
No Impact
No impact
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
*Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health Organization
By: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin Mueller
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality
109 per 1000
5 per 1000
7 per 1000
Curing
Malaria
Decrease No impact
No impact
Curing
Heart Disease
No impact
No impact
No impact
4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.comBy Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births
109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths
Curing
Malaria
Decrease No Impact
No Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Decrease No Impact
Decrease
France Tanzania USA
Adult Mortality (m/f per 1000)
133/60 561/512 140/83
Curing Malaria No Impact No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Diseases
Decrease No Impact Decrease
By: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania France USA
Adult Mortality 561-M
512-F
133-M
60-F
140-M
83-F
Curing
Malaria
Subtle impact
Subtle impact
Subtle impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Decrease Decrease Decrease
Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA
Source: US Census Bureau
By: Casy Dunphy
Meghan Jablonski
By: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ
Adult Mortality
N= 60,424,000 ppl
R= 0.5% growth
G= RN = 302,120 ppl
N= 33,065,000 ppl
R= 2.4% growth
G= RN= 704,000 ppl
N= 293,028,000 ppl
R= 1.0 % growth
G= RN= 2,930,000 ppl
Info not available on the WHO website, but the death rate is 18 per thousand in the population
Males: 140 per 1000
Females: 83 per thousand
Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria primarily effects kids
Will slightly lower adult mortality because malaria is prevalent in subsaharan Africa
Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria is not prevalent in the US
Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries
Will not significantly lower adult mortality because it is not a big killer of adults in Tanzania
Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries
France Tanzania USA
N,R,G
Adult Mortality
Curing Malaria
Curing Heart Disease
Source: US Census Bureau, World Health Organization
Males: 133 per 1000
Females: 60 per 1000
United States ---------12.22 hectares per capita
France-------------------7.27 hectares per capita
Tanzania----------------1.02 hectares per capita
1.0 hectares =2.471 acres
As the population increases over the next 45 years, the concentration of people per hectare will increase which results in a lower ecological footprint per capita.
By:
Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
Burma France Canada
Water Availability
21,898 cubic meters
3,349 cubic meters
94,353 cubic meters
Population Changes
Increase Decrease Decrease
By: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller Water Availability for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: Nationmaster.com
Tanzania France United States
Water Supply Amount*
(in cubic meters)3.64 thousand cubic
meters3.26 thousand cubic
meters 7.09 thousand
cubic meters
Freshwater pollution*
(in tons per cubic km)N/A 2.49 tons per cubic
km1.14 tons per cubic km
Population from present time to 2050
Increases Increases Increases
*The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050 will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to increase.
Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and the United States
Source: nationmaster.com
Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista Woolever, and Sarah Kleman
Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United States
Tanzania France USA
Water Supply
Amount and Quality Today
Water Availability: 3.64 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution: 0.00 tons/cubic
km
Water Availability: 3.26 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution:
2.49 tons/cubic km
Water Availability: 7.09 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution:
1.14 tons/cubic km
Water Supply
Amount and Quality in
2050
Water Availability: Decrease
Freshwater Pollution: Increase
*POPULATION PREDICTED TO
DOUBLE BY 2050
Water Availability: Same
Freshwater Pollution:
Increase
*POPULATION PREDICTED SAME
SIZE AS NOW
Water Availability: Decrease
Freshwater Pollution:
Increase
*POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 1.5 TIMES LARGER
Sources: www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/env_eco_foo&int=-1; US Census Bureau
By: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth
Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base
By: Brian
Peters,
Alexa
Jaime
In persons / sq. km.
Tanzania France USA
Today 40.7 110.7 32
2050 81.2 111.8 45.8
France Tanzania U.S.
Population Today
Density (persons per sq. km.)
60,424,213
110.7
36,071,799
40.7
293,028,571
32.0
Population 2050
Density (persons per sq. km.)
61,017,122
111.8
71,949,135
81.2
420,081,587
45.8
Impact Increase Increase Increase
Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S.
Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density)
Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn
United States
France Tanzania
Population
2004
293,027,571 60,424,213 36,070,799
Population
2050
420,080,587 61,017,122 71,949,135
Population
Density
Increase Increase
Slightly
Increase
Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann
Population Density for United States, France and TanzaniaSource: U.S. Census Brureau
Land UseLand Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent
crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands.
It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the growth rate of France is not nearly as high.
By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah
Country Type of Land Percent of land (%)
Prediction for
2050
Tanzania Arable 4.52 Increase
Permanent 1.08 Decrease
Other 94.4 Increase
United States Arable 19.13 Decrease
Permanent 0.22 No Impact
Other 80.65 Increase
France Arable 33.53 Decrease
Permanent 2.07 Decrease
Other 64.4 Increase
Wildness Tanzania France USA
Today 9.30% 0.04% 35.89%
2050Decrease
substantially Decrease Slightly
Decrease
Wildness for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: www.nationmaster.comBy: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch,Alison Smetana, Ethan Lor
Tanzania will decrease because they are still a developing country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used because the United States has one of the largest masses of preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness because the world population has not reached its carrying capacity.
# 11 WildnessMichelle TentisMegan BrennanRachael Stanze
United States France Tanzania
Wildness 35.89% .04% 9.3%
Current Population
290,342,554 60,180,529 35,922,454
Growth Rate .92% .42% 1.72%
Effect of Pop. On Wildness
in 2050
Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted
as a result of necessary expansion.
Examine the data you collected
• For each variable, determine the impact of curing malaria and heart disease on that variable.
In developed countries, what happens if we cure heart disease?
• Population
• Consumption
• Quality of life
No significant increase
Increase
Increases life expectancy, but will also increaseheath costs and drain on resources
In developing countries, what happens if we cure malaria?
• Population
• Consumption
• Quality of life
Significant increase
Increase
Increases life expectancy, but will also dramatically increase use of already scarce resources
Impact of Disease on Population
• Which would have a greater impact on world population, curing heart disease or curing malaria?
MALARIA
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• What happens if we don’t cure malaria?
• What happens if we do cure malaria?
• What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?
Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressed
Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly
What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?
Decrease fertility rate per womanLess developed countries 3.05
More developed countries 1.57
Spread out the generationsStart having children at age 30 vs. 15
Birth-controlAbstinence, contraception, sterilization
OtherEducation of women, affluence (wealth)
Why do we want to keep population growth low?
• In many poor countries resources are already scarce.– Tanzania < 2,000 calories per day– France, USA >3,200 calories per day
• If population increases, available food per person decreases.
• This leads to increased pressure on the environment and ecosystems around the world
France Tanzania USA
Consumption
Quality of Life
Is there a correlation between consumption and quality of life?
France Tanzania USA
Consumption Average Low High
Quality of Life Highest Low High
0123456789
10
0 5 10 15
QualityOf Life
Consumption (ecological footprint)
Is the current level of consumption in the US sustainable?
• No, we must import a third of our resources.
Tanzania France USA
Footprint (ha/person) 1.0 7.3 12.2
Actual resources (ha/person) 0.6 7.4 8.0
Net Difference -0.4 +0.1 -4.2
Impact of consumption on the environment
• Consumption by the average American– The US uses 250-300 liters of water/person/day
• for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and watering yards (the minimum amount needed for those things MINUS the yard watering is 50 liters/person/day).
• In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5 liters of water/person/day.
– The average American consumed over 200 pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.
– The average coffee drinker in the United States drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.
Impact of consumption on the environment
• Consumption by the average American– In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of
garbage waste per day • (product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass
clippings, etc., before recycling).
• Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in 1960.
– About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year. This is over 300 liters/person/year!
– In 2001, the United States used 341.8 million Btus of energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of carbon/person.
• In the same year, France used 177.8 million Btus/person and emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.
What is the impact of consumption on the environment?
• To make a single 2 gram computer chip requires– 1.6 liters of fossil fuel– 72 grams of chemicals – 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water
What is the impact of consumption on the environment?
(compare Tanzania with France/USA)
Tanzania France USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112
SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600
Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1
Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36%
Ecological footprint 1 7.3 12.2
What is the impact of population density on the environment?
(compare France with the USA)
Tanzania France USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112
SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600
Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1
Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36%
Population Density (people/km2) 40 110 31
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• Should we try to cure malaria?
• Given your answer, are there other actions we should take at the same time?
Is there hope?
N
What type of growth is this?
Logistic
What determines K for humans?• Adapt our environment to meet our needs
rather than adapt to our environment.
• Predation– Only ourselves
• Parasites– Sanitation– Medications
• Competition– Mass extinctions
What is K for humans?
K = 1010 people?
Is this sustainable?
r
G
Feeding the world
• World’s farmers have doubled the food supply since 1973– Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice– Irrigation– Fertilizers and pesticides– Genetically modified crops– Actually have more food/person than in 1973
Agricultural Production per Person has remained relatively constant
020406080
100120140160180
1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Nor
mal
ized
to
1970
PopulationFood/personFood
Top 5 countries by population (2003)
1 China 1,286,975,468
2 India 1,049,700,118
3 United States 290,342,554
4 Indonesia 234,893,453
5 Brazil 182,032,604
Population x Consumption = Environmental Impact
Population Consumption
(hect/person)
Impact
(hectares)China 1,286,975,468 1.8 2,316,555,842
India 1,049,700,118 1.0 1,049,700,118
United States
290,342,554 12.7 3,687,350,436
Indonesia 234,893,453 1.5 352,340,180
Brazil 182,032,604 2.6 473,284,770
Sustainable Development:Land Used < Land Available
Impact
(hectares)
Available
(hectares)
Difference
(hectares)China 2,316,555,842 1,544,370,562 -772,185,281
India 1,049,700,118 656,062,574 -393,637,544
United States
3,687,350,436 2,322,740,432 -1,364,610,004
Indonesia 352,340,180 610,722,978 258,382,798
Brazil 473,284,770 1,019,382,582 546,097,812
Ecological impact
• Impact = population X consumption
• Americans consume more per capita than anyone else on earth.
• It would take 3.28 billion Indians to consume what 290 million Americans do.
Sustainable development
• A balance between population and consumption within the limits imposed by nature
• Need to achieve sustainability– Reduction in pop growth in developing nations– Reduction in consumption in developed nations
The End
Population pyramidsfor Tanzania-2000-2025-2050
Population pyramidsfor France-2000-2025-2050
Population pyramidsfor United States-2000-2025-2050
General Pop. Stats. Tanzania France USA
Pop. (in millions) 36.0 59.5 285.9
Infant Mortality
(death/1000 live births)
104 5 8
Fertility rate 5.5 1.7 2.0
Life Expectancy @ birth 46 72 76
Child mortality (per 1000) 159 5 8
Adult mortality (per 1000) 526 97 113
Health expenditure/
capita (Intl. $)
36 2,335 4,499
Growth
(G=r x N)
Tanzania France USA
r (%) 2.9 0.4 1.1
N 35,964,000 59,452,000 285,925,000
G 1,042,956 237,808 3,145,175
