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Population Trends in North Carolina & Implications for Transportation
NC Department of TransportationJuly 12, 2019
Mike Cline, PhDState DemographerOffice of State Budget & Management,Demographic & Economic Analysis Section
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Population Growth
Population Estimate Change, 2010-2018
Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent
United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0
California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2
Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1
Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3
New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8
Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8
Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 -90,492 -0.7
Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3
Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6
North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9
Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.3
North Carolina Population vs. Other States
9th Largest State at 10.4 Million
4th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018
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Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage.
5.15.9
6.6
8.0
9.5
10.6
11.8
12.8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038
North Carolina Population 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038Millions of People
North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected
In-Migration Now Major Component of Population Growth
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Components of Population Change in North Carolina by Period, 1950 - 2018
76%
87%
53%
72%
24%
13%
47%
28%
V IRGINIA
TENNESSEE
SOUTH CA ROLINA
GEORGIA
NORTH CA ROLINA
Domestic International
Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.
387,595
359,822
290,164
200,978
Net Migration
More Migration to North Carolina vs Neighbors in Recent YearsNet Domestic and International Migration, April 2010 to July 2018
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560,003
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Urbanization
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Population Change in North Carolina by Urban/Rural Status, 2000-2010
22%
32%
12%
34%
53%
41%
3% 2%
Charlotte/Raleigh UA All Other UA* Urban Clusters* Rural
Population Population Change
Over Half the Population and Almost All Population Growth in Major Urban Areas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
*Urbanized Areas (UA) as defined in 2010. For this graph, the newly defined urbanized areas of New Bern and North Myrtle Beach-Socastee were included in the Urban Cluster totals. Urbanized Areas are statistical areas of 50,000 or more people while Urban Clusters include at least 2,500 but no more than 49,999 people. These areas do not follow legal (i.e. municipal) boundaries. The rural growth proportion may be slightly larger as this does not account for rural areas in 2000 that became urban in 2010.
-- Areas of 50,000 or More --
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Population Change by County - April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2017
Population Growth in NC Since 2010 Has Been Robust, But Uneven
NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED
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Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2038
Projected Growth in Majority of NC Counties
NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED
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NCDOT Division Growth as a Percent of State Growth
26.4%
25.1%
9.0%
8.3%
5.6%
5.2%
4.4%
4.2%
3.8%
3.3%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.5%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
10 - Charlotte
5 - Raleigh-Durham
3 - Wilmington
7 - Greensboro
12 - Gastonia
9 - Winston-Salem
4 - Wilson
8 - Carthage
13 - Asheville
14 - Sylva
11 - Wilkesboro
2 - Greenville
6 - Fayetteville
1 - Edenton
Divisions 5 and 10 Will Account for 51.5% of All Growth, 2019 – 2038
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
Projected 2.3 Million People Added to North Carolina
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Population Aging
Projected Percent Population Change by Age Group, 2019-2038
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18.5%
11.3%
8.5%
20.1%
7.7%
55.3%
21.7%
<5
5-17
18-24
25-54
55-64
65+
Total
Population 65 and Over is Projected to Grow More Than 2 1/2 Times Faster Than Total Population in the Next 19 years
Source: OSBM, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
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Population in North Carolina by Age, 2019 and 2038
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
<5 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
2019 2038
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
Median Age:2019: 392038: 41
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Race/Ethnic Diversification
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North Carolina’s Future Growth Is More Diverse
Projected Population Change from 2019 to 2038 by Race/Ethnic GroupNon-Hispanic Non-White includes: Black, Asian, American Indian, and those identifying as Two/ More Races
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
851,340 802,835
624,449
NonHispanic White NonHispanic NonWhite Hispanic
Projected 2.3 Million Total Growth
27% of Growth
35% of Growth
37% of Growth
Am. Indian2%
Asian3%
Black22%
Two or More
2%
White71%
Population by Hispanic Origin & Race
2017 203858%
29%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NH White NH Non-White
Hispanic
62%
27%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NH White NH Non-White
Hispanic
Source: NC OSBM Population Estimates, Vintage 2017 and Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
10.3 Million 12.8 Million
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NH = nonHispanic
Am. Indian2%
Asian4%
Black22%
Two or More
4%
White68%
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Median Household Incomes by Race/Ethnicity
All Households, $46,868
NH Asian, $68,933
NH White, $53,157
Hispanic, $34,708NH Black, $32,807
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Black and Hispanic Incomes are 60-65% of NH White Households
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015
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Implications for Transportation
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Demographic Challenges for Transportation
• Population growth
• More drivers
• More VMT
• More demand on all modes of transportation
• Urbanization
• Increased congestion
• Increased demand for alternative modes of transportation
• Need to maintain transportation system in rural areas
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Demographic Challenges (Continued)
• Aging & race/ethnic change
• Attenuate rate of growth in drivers & VMT
• Increase demand for alternative transportation modes
• Elderly giving up driving will still need transportation
• Retired drivers increase road use in non-peak commute hours• Proportionally fewer drivers in “risky” ages suggest overall
decline in crash rates• More elderly drivers suggest increase in elderly involved in
fatalities (due to frailty of people involved in crashes not severity of crash)
Thank You!
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Michael (Mike) E. ClineState Demographer
Demographic & Economic Analysis SectionNorth Carolina Office of State Budget and Management
For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See:
https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/demographics
Make NC Count!https://census.nc.gov/
