Population Theories

Framework

• Introduction• Early Thinking on Population issues• Pre Malthusian Theory• Malthusian Theory• Post Malthusian Theory

Introduction• Since time immemorial ,scholars and thinkers have concerned

themselves with the population question?• Large population has been sometimes been considered as a

source of the nation’s strength and wealth and underlying factor for technological development.

• At the other extreme ,it has been viewed as a contributory factor in poverty and such catastrophes as wars , famines and epidemics.

• Thus the size and the growth of the population has thus been viewed as an important factor underlying the development of a country.

Early thinking of Population Issues

• Greek Thinkers• Roman Thinkers

Greek Thinkers

• Greek scheme of Political life ,the individual was only part of the state.

• Marriage was an institution created by the legal and political system.

• Main objective of marriage was procreation.• Continual wars had decreased the population and

demanded constant supply of men.• All Spartans were compelled to get married.• Celibacy was a punishable offence by Law and

denounced in public.

Roman Thinkers

• Conquest ,Power and Empire-thus needed a rapidly expanding population.

• Encouraged Procreation by granting special privileges.

Pre Malthusian Theories• The Mercantilist School• Beginning of the 16th Century to the End of 18th

Century.• Almost all trading nations adopted the ‘Mercantilism’

economic thought.• Agriculture alone couldn’t sustain the economy of

nation , so they had export goods.• In such situations demand for workers increased.

Malthusian

•Malthus was the first to notice the impending issue of there being more people than could be supported by the food supply.•In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply. His theory has two basic principles:Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc. Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

• The consequence of these two principles is that eventually, population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers. Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering

of fertility rate), increased cost of food etc.positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the

death rate. • Malthusian ideas are often supported by Western

governments because it highlights the problem of too many mouths to feed, rather than the uneven distribution of resources;

'J' Curve - Population Crash Model

• Easter Island : • Isolated island in the Pacific

• Evidence of a thriving culture in the 1600s-1700s

• Population grew, cultivated more land and thrived.

• By 1800 the population had declined considerably and was in a state of poor diet, poor health and much deprivation.

• It is believed that as the population grew, more land was cleared of forest for farmland.

• As all the land was used up, the soil was over-used and then exhausted.

• Deforestation caused soil erosion and reduced the food production

• As resources declined, tribal groups went to war with each other for scarce resources

• The loss of trees meant no more boats could be built to allow people to escape the islands.

• By the 1800s the population was declining through warfare, inadequate food, and deteriorating soil conditions.

Post Malthusian Theory

• Anti-Natalist Policies : Reducing the Birth Rate• Pro-Natalist Policies : Increasing the Birth Rate

Anti-Natalist Policies : Reducing the Birth Rate

• Theory : Neo-Malthusians

• Belief : Population is growing faster and the world is running out of finite resources. Unless governments limit the growth of their populations, the world will face a crisis of resource-shortage leading to conflict and war

• Evidence : Oil wars (Iraq invading Kuwait 1990). USA invading Iraq (1991 and 2001). Water conflict between Israel and Palestine. Easter Island – 1800s.

• Policy : Reduce Birth Rates by introducing free contraception, improving education of poor women, encouraging people to have fewer children

• Examples : Mauritius, China.

Mauritius

• Isolated island in the Indian ocean

• Population was growing rapidly in the 1950s leading to over-cultivation

• The island was rapidly approaching over-population.

• The government and religious faiths came together to…

a) Reduce the population growth rate by introducing contraceptives. The fertility rate fell from 4.2 to 2.8 in a decade as women embraced the opportunity to limit the number of children they gave birth to

b) Increase the food production of the island by (i) de-rocking the fields to increase the land that could be cultivated (ii) dual-cropping – growing bush/tree crops in strips alongside food crops. The taller trees shade the lower ones and stop the soil drying out.

c) The island moved away from trying to be self-sufficient in food, and encouraged foreign firms to relocate there – making use of the island’s well-educated workforce and low tax rates. The money raised from taxes on the businesses has been used to import food.

• Evaluation : by reducing population growth, increasing food production, and increasing wealth to import food from abroad, Mauritius used its creativity and ingenuity to prevent the island getting out of balance with its resources. Boserup’s theory, with a bit of Malthus too.

Pro-Natalist Policies : Increasing the Birth Rate

• Theory : Boserup , Mao-Ze-Dung

• Belief : Population is a country’s greatest asset. People can work, are productive, and can be inventive. The more people you have, the more workers, the greater the number of consumers for industrial goods, the more taxes can be paid, the more trade can take place.

• Evidence : When countries face starvation – it’s usually due to civil war or climate change – not too many people to feed. As the world’s population has grown – there have been fewer famines – not more. The most successful economies of the 21st century are the ones with larger populations (USA, China, Brazil, India, UK, Germany..)

• Policy : Increase Birth Rates by introducing incentives for women to have more children (paid maternity leave, free child-care, increased child-allowance for 3rd child). Or increase immigration by encouraging new settlers.

• Examples : Under-populated countries with large land areas and sparse population – Canada, Australia, Brazil, New Zealand. Countries in Stage 5 of the DTM with increasing elderly populations and few young people – Japan, Sweden, France, Italy, Germany.

Esther Boserup’s Theory of Population Growth

• In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population;

• In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the more hands there are to work.

• She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention;

• The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields.

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