Population numbers and global sustainability

Stephen Bown, University College London

Malmesbury School and Bath University Global Connection Conference

Friday 5th July 2012

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE THERE IN THE WORLD TODAY?

7,100,000,000!!!This number is increasing by more than 1.5 million per week - about 9000 more mouths to feed during the course of this one hour

workshop

Each dot= 1 million

people

Population growth through the

ages

170 million to 7 billion!(X40 increase in 2000 years)

One dot = 1 million people

• Should we worry about these figures?• What will happen if we do nothing?• Should we do something?• If we should, what should we do?

THE AIM OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE BASIC FACTS AND TO

MAKE YOU THINK ABOUT THEM AND THE IMPLICATIONS

What determines how many people the Earth can support?

• What we eat and drinkOn a vegetarian diet, much larger numbers can be fed

• What we doHow restrained we are in the use of

irreplaceable resources• The balance between humans and all

other animal and plant lifeIn the natural balance of nature, any major changes, we make at our peril

How many people can the planet support?

Global Footprint Network www.footprintnetwork.org/

Ecological Footprints and Biocapacity (global hectares per person, 1961-2009)

UK

USA

Mali

China

www.footprintnetwork.org/

This is all about sustainabilityWe want a good quality of life for everyone, now and for future

generations.We want every child to be wanted, healthy, well educated, happy and to have a rewarding life and to be able to anticipate the same

for their own children

• The way the human race is acting at present, this dream is at risk, due largely to:

• OVER CONSUMPTION OF LIMITED RESOURCESand

TOO MANY PEOPLE

Threats to our environment Two sides of the same coin

perperson

no. ofpersons

World population – past and future(UNDESA)

16 billion

10 billion

6 billion

What about the UK?(UK ONS – Office for National Statistics)

DOES IT MATTER?YouGov poll in 2011 80% said yes.

Year Population1911 42 million2001 59 million

2011 63 million2030 (Projected) 73 million

What affects animal population sizes?

• Food availability• Disease prevalence• Predation• Procreation level

Animal populations stabilise at sustainable levels, but often explode and collapse

Are humans different?

• Are we subject to the same constraints

FAMINE, DISEASE, WAR

• Or can we rise above these limits through human ingenuity?

• Are we upsetting the balance of nature?• Why is the climate changing?

Perhaps there are some desirable aspects…..

What are more people and over consumption doing to the following:Water supplies Agricultural land area and food suppliesFish stocks (freshwater and sea)Biodiversity and wild life habitatsOil, coal and gas reservesMineral and plant resourcesWeather and the climate

• NOW IT’S TIME FOR YOU TO THINK

Divide into small groups to discuss ways of making consumption and population sustainable on our finite planet

Consumption: how to make limited resources go further• Group 1: Food and water• Group 2: Energy and technology

Population – how to encourage fewer births • Group 3: Family and cultural considerations • Group 4: Government policies

so where are we now?

• The world population is slowly stabilising, but to a level where it would be difficult to maintain a good quality of life for all

• With appropriate motivation, the stable number can be reduced

• This requires reducing the number of children being born

el “The elephant in the room…..

….that nobody talks about”

Population Growth

We have identified ways in which the effects of over population and over consumption

might be addressed

The key question now is how these options might be implemented!

How many people will be willing to reduce their consumption or have fewer children

than they would like for the sake of sustainability on Mother Earth?

Ignoring over population is like rearranging the

deckchairs on the Titanic

What actions are likely to be most useful?

Education. Men and women need to understand the consequences of large families and over consumption.

Overcome the “MAD TABOO” of not talking about population

Contraceptive advice and supplies should be available and affordable (preferably free) to all who want them

Every woman should have the right to determine how many children she has, but she must also accept the responsibility to

society and to the earth for each child that is born.

“Contraception should be used on every conceivable occasion”

There are plenty of options!

Good guideline: 2 offspring, replace the parents

We all love children – we want them to be healthy, happy, well educated and to live in a sustainable

world. It can only happen if population and consumption are stabilised

Decline in Total Fertility Rate (average number of children per

woman) in Nations with Well Organized Family Planning

Programmes (UNDESA)

5.6

1.1

6.4

1.7

5.5

2

6.76

2.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

TFR

S.Korea Thailand Sri Lanka Colombia

1960 2007

Good education; Contraceptives available & affordable; Misinformation/fatalism reduced

Biodiversity lossBiodiversity loss

People and the Planet(report by the Royal Society)

Rapid and widespread changes in the world’s human population, coupled with unprecedented levels of consumption present profound challenges to human health and wellbeing, and the natural

environment.

Slide 30

Slide 32

Good news from the top: Will and Kate

Prince William reveals wish for two children

The Duke of Cambridge has reportedly revealed he would like to have two children with his wife. Prince William made the comment when asked how many children he would like, during the second day of the couple's Diamond Jubilee tour to Singapore. A teenager at one walkabout said the prince had responded by saying "he was thinking about having two".Source: BBC 12 September 2012

SafeSearch on

Supplementary slides providing further information on population growth and

the consequences

Further information for schools can be found on the Population Matters Website;

www.populationmatters.org

“The Tragedy of the Commons”

EACH farmer thinks it better FOR HIS FAMILY to put yet another cow on the disappearing grass. Until…. all the grass goes and all the cows die!

Slide 35

Population policies - Iran

• Declaration that Islam favoured families with only two children".

• Introduced free contraceptives - pills, condoms, IUDs, implants, tubal ligations, and vasectomies, including mobile teams.

• Birth control classes required before a couple could get married.

• After the third child, withdrew food coupons, paid maternity leave, and social welfare subsidies.

• Population growth fell from 3% a year between 1956 and 1986 to 0.7% a year by 2007.

• Was Iran right or wrong?

Population policies - China

• Before the one child policy, there was a sharp reduction from more than five births per woman in the early 1970s to 2.5 in 1980.

• One third of population is subject to the one-child policy.• Violators are fined and may lose their work bonus. • The fertility rate fell from 2.63 births in 1980 to 1.61 in 2009• However, the policy itself is probably only partially responsible for

the reduction in the total fertility rate.• Criticisms: Was such a draconian approach required? Is it fairly

applied? Were there human rights abuses? Was the preference for boys worsened? Do single children lose out?

• Was China right or wrong?

“LaterLongerFewer”

Mao: “Every mouth has two hands”

TFR changes

1979

1970

Iran

China

NIGERIA 2008

55% say they never intend to use contraception. Total fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman, and the

women think 7 children is ideal. The men think 9 children is the ideal number.

Only 0.2% of Nigerians say they don't use contraceptives because services are not there.

Overcoming this situation takes more than access to contraceptive services.

It requires helping people understand the personal benefits in health and welfare for them and their

children of limiting and spacing births.• See: www.populationmedia.com

Awareness of over population and the

need for contraceptives has

been raised in many sub-Saharan countries through story lines on local

radio soaps

www.populationmedia.org

Population growth is a significant factor in essentially all the major environmental problems we face today

FACTS, NOT OPINIONS....