PopulationPopulation♥ ♥ Introduction to Population Analysis Introduction to Population Analysis

♥ ♥ Population DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

♥ ♥ Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis

♥ ♥ Quiz QuestionsQuiz Questions

♥ ♥ This chapter deals with population which is one of the core This chapter deals with population which is one of the core dynamics within the scenario analysis of the International dynamics within the scenario analysis of the International Futures programFutures program

♥ ♥ Population is a key player in any model trying to create a Population is a key player in any model trying to create a reasonable prediction of the future with a given date set of reasonable prediction of the future with a given date set of indicators and parametersindicators and parameters

♥ ♥ One the next slides you will see two graphical representations of One the next slides you will see two graphical representations of the worlds population growth for the next fifty years. Notice that the worlds population growth for the next fifty years. Notice that in the year 2050 the high and low forecast vary by approximately in the year 2050 the high and low forecast vary by approximately 2 billon people. This can be caused by many contribution 2 billon people. This can be caused by many contribution factors that you must consider in the input stage of your factors that you must consider in the input stage of your scenario. scenario.

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♥ ♥ The difference shown in the high and low predictions can be The difference shown in the high and low predictions can be influenced by the following factors and many moreinfluenced by the following factors and many more

♥ ♥ Contraceptive use and promotion of family planning programsContraceptive use and promotion of family planning programs♥ ♥ Improving the status of womenImproving the status of women♥ ♥ Over all increase in the wealth of the population, As shown on the Over all increase in the wealth of the population, As shown on the

next slide this can have a great impact on populationnext slide this can have a great impact on population♥ ♥ Controlling the rate of infections and general heath of the Controlling the rate of infections and general heath of the

populationpopulation♥ ♥ Size of a population might seem important, however there are Size of a population might seem important, however there are

other factors such as the percent of the population that can be other factors such as the percent of the population that can be considered as “Dependent Population” i.e. those individuals under considered as “Dependent Population” i.e. those individuals under 15 and over 65. That also play a large role in future predictions 15 and over 65. That also play a large role in future predictions

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Population DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

♥ ♥ There are many types of population analysisThere are many types of population analysis

♥ ♥ The simplest are pure extrapolations of of current growth patternsThe simplest are pure extrapolations of of current growth patterns

♥ ♥ high/low extrapolation will give you a general idea of the future size of a high/low extrapolation will give you a general idea of the future size of a population. Growth rate changes dramatically from year to year and population. Growth rate changes dramatically from year to year and therefore could significantly change a predicted out come therefore could significantly change a predicted out come

♥ ♥ One of the major tools available to you in IF to manipulate growth rate is One of the major tools available to you in IF to manipulate growth rate is - Cohort-component analysis Cohort-component analysis

This will allow to combine age-sex, fertility, and mortality This will allow to combine age-sex, fertility, and mortality distributions to get a more realistic picture of a possible future distributions to get a more realistic picture of a possible future populationpopulation

Population Dynamics (cont)Population Dynamics (cont)

♥ ♥ TFR Total Fertility Rate. Is a measure of all the births a woman can have TFR Total Fertility Rate. Is a measure of all the births a woman can have over a life time.over a life time.

♥ ♥ This indicator varies greatly over time from many reasons related to other This indicator varies greatly over time from many reasons related to other aspects of a country.aspects of a country.

♥ ♥ Some of the influencing factors are:Some of the influencing factors are:- Income per- capita- Income per- capita- Cost Vs Return on the value of having children - Cost Vs Return on the value of having children - nutrition and general heath of a population- nutrition and general heath of a population- family planning programs- family planning programs- Percent of women mobilized in the work force- Percent of women mobilized in the work force

Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis

♥ ♥ This will allow you to select a set of indicators upon which you wish This will allow you to select a set of indicators upon which you wish to focusto focus

♥ ♥ Multipliers allow you to effectively increase or decrease variables that Multipliers allow you to effectively increase or decrease variables that are otherwise calculated automaticallyare otherwise calculated automatically

♥ ♥ You should have in mind a basis or rational for changes that you You should have in mind a basis or rational for changes that you make in multipliers or other parametersmake in multipliers or other parameters

♥ ♥ This will be a process of trial and error This will be a process of trial and error

Draw your Own ConclusionsDraw your Own Conclusions1.1. A booming economy will ______ the fertility rate of a country.A booming economy will ______ the fertility rate of a country.

a. increase a. increase b. decreaseb. decreasec. All of the abovec. All of the above d. none of the aboved. none of the above

2.2. A highly educated female population will ______ the fertility rate of a A highly educated female population will ______ the fertility rate of a country.country.a. increase a. increase b. decreaseb. decreasec. All of the abovec. All of the above d. none of the aboved. none of the above

3.3. T F Sheer size of a population is the only factor that influences T F Sheer size of a population is the only factor that influences productivity.productivity.

4.4. T F The growth rate of a population is an exponential constant.T F The growth rate of a population is an exponential constant.5.5. T F A change in agricultural yield will have an effect on populationT F A change in agricultural yield will have an effect on population6.6. T F International futures can predict the futureT F International futures can predict the future

Draw your Own ConclusionsDraw your Own Conclusions

7.7. T F A government could use a population analysis to T F A government could use a population analysis to test the effectiveness of implementing a family test the effectiveness of implementing a family planning programplanning program

8.8. The IF program uses parameters and ____ to The IF program uses parameters and ____ to manipulate its datamanipulate its data

a. multipliersa. multipliers b. dividersb. dividers

c. calculus c. calculus d. indicatorsd. indicators

9.9. T F Population has no influence on a counties powerT F Population has no influence on a counties power

10.Danno’s presentation was the ______.10.Danno’s presentation was the ______.

a. BESTa. BEST b. BEST EVERb. BEST EVER

c. Most informative thing I’ve ever listened toc. Most informative thing I’ve ever listened to

d. Greatest 10 min’s of my lifed. Greatest 10 min’s of my life