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Population Health EraMedical Staff Development Planning
March 19, 2014
Overall Purpose
What is Medical Staff Development Planning (“MSDP”)?
3
Why is MSDP Both Necessary & Advised?
4
Why is MSDP Both Necessary & Advised?
5
Health ReformHealth Reform
Evolution of Medical Staff Development Planning
6
1980-90’s Late 1990’s 2004 2010 2014
IRS & “Community Need”
Rudimentary Medical Staff Development Plans
Compliance-Focused Using Dated Ratios
Oversupply Concerns (GMENAC)
Advent of ManagedCare
Stark Law Geography
Plans Still Compliance Oriented
Increasing Competition & Industry Complexity Requiring Better Solutions and Data
Affordable Care Act
Ongoing Competition, Complexity
More Sub-Specialization;Extenders;Patient Access; Changing Physician Workforce
Population Health; Clinical Integration;New Delivery Models;Value-Based;Industry Consolidation
Robust, Strategic Medical Staff Development Plans Required
What Are a Plan’s Key Components?
7
• One-on-One Interviews• Physician Survey• Patient Access Study
Local Market Reality
• Physician Supply Database• Community & Hospital Supply/Demand• Served Lives Analysis
Quantitative Results
• Synthesize All Inputs• 3-Year Recruitment Strategy• Population Health Scenarios
Recruitment Strategy
Final Medical Staff Development Plan
Steering C
omm
ittee Guidance
Who Should Be Involved in the Planning?
Steering Committee
• President / CEO
• Chief Medical Officer
• Medical Staff Leaders
• Informal Physician Leaders
• Strategy / Development
• Physician Recruitment
• Board Member
8
Local Market Reality
How Should You Gain Medical Staff Perspective?
10
Why is Senior Management Input Important?
11
How Does Patient Access Impact the Plan?
12
How Does Patient Access Impact the Plan?
13
Quantitative Inputs
What Should the Demand Data Include?Why Are Publicly Available Physician-to-Population Ratios Less Valuable?
GMENAC and other publicly available ratios:• Developed decades ago
• Do not adjust for age or gender make-up
• Do not account for changing utilization
• Do not account for changing practice patterns
15
Robust, all-payer actuarial use rate data
Specific to populationage and gender
Broad list of adult & pediatric sub-specialties
Utilization adjustments for well-managed population
Is There an Easy Way to Assemble Physician Supply?
16
Is There an Easy Way to Assemble Physician Supply?
17
Physician Practice Websites
Hospital Provider Rosters
Mailing List Data
State License
Databases
Vitals, Health-grades,
Yelp
AMA Masterfile
Is Primary Research Necessary?
• Multiple Office Locations
• Multiple Specialties
• Productivity Adjustments
• Source Counts
18
Dat
abas
e Ac
cura
cy
Number of Phone Calls
Strategic Analysis
What is the Purpose of a Strategic Analysis
• Identify market opportunities for services
• Customize the analysis for the institution: what are our needs?
• Integrate local market reality with the quantitative modeling
• Develop a recruitment strategy positioned for success
20
Hospital Strategic Need Calculation
21
Total Market Demand
Step 1:Define Strategic Service AreaUnderstand Related Age & Gender Demographics
Hospital’s Portion of Demand
Primary Service Area
Secondary Service Area
Tertiary Service Area
Calculate Total Demand in the Market
22
Total FTE Demand
40
40
40
120 FTEs
Hospital Strategic Need Calculation
23
Total Market Demand
Step 1:Define Strategic Service AreaUnderstand Related Age & Gender Demographics
Hospital’s Portion of Demand
Step 2:Determine Institutional Served LivesCurrent & Projected
Calculate the Hospital’s Portion of the Market
• Population-based “Portion of the Market”
• Served Lives = number of residents served by the hospital
• Estimate using inpatient, outpatient, & physician market share
• Apply a set of growth targets to model future market capture
24
Primary Service Area
Secondary Service Area
Tertiary Service Area
Calculate the Hospital’s Portion of the Market
25
Total FTE Demand
40
40
40
120 FTEs
30
10
4
Hospital Portion: 30 + 10 + 4 = 44 FTEs
The Portion of the Market Varies by Specialty and Geography
Primary Care Example• The hospital’s portion of the
market is heavily weighted towards the population near the hospital campus
Sub-Specialist Example• Tertiary providers draw from
a wider geography and serve a larger portion of distant population centers
26
PSA
SSA
TSA
PSA
SSA
TSA
Hospital Strategic Need Calculation
27
Total Market Demand
Step 1:Define Strategic Service AreaUnderstand Related Age & Gender Demographics
Hospital’s Portion of Demand
Step 2:Determine Institutional Served LivesCurrent & Projected
Total Market Supply
Step 3:Assemble Service Area Physician Supply Data
Hospital’s Aligned Physicians
Hospital Strategic Need Calculation
28
Total Market Demand
Step 1:Define Strategic Service AreaUnderstand Related Age & Gender Demographics
Hospital’s Portion of Demand
Step 2:Determine Institutional Served LivesCurrent & Projected
Total Market Supply
Step 3:Assemble Service Area Physician Supply Data
Hospital’s Aligned Physicians
Step 4:Identify Aligned ProvidersQuantify Institutional Commitment
Calculate Physician Commitment Levels
29
1.0 1.0 1.0
100%Commitment
70%Commitment
0%Commitment
1.0
3.0 FTE Physicians in
the Market
1.7 FTE Physicians at the Hospital0.7
Hospital Strategic Need Calculation
30
Total Market Demand
Step 1:Define Strategic Service AreaUnderstand Related Age & Gender Demographics
Hospital’s Portion of Demand
Step 2:Determine Institutional Served LivesCurrent & Projected
Total Market Supply
Step 3:Assemble Service Area Physician Supply Data
Hospital’s Aligned Physicians
Step 4:Identify Aligned ProvidersQuantify Institutional Commitment
Step 5:Calculate Surplus or Deficit for the Market and Institution
Project the Strategic Surplus/(Deficit)
Specialty Supply Demand Surplus/ (Deficit)
Family Medicine 88.1 104.7 (16.6)
Internal Medicine 31.1 62.5 (31.4)
Obstetrics & Gynecology 27.2 24.1 3.1
Pediatrics 23.0 36.6 (13.6)
Urgent Care 4.7 6.8 (2.1)
Total Primary Care 174.1 234.7 (60.6)
31
Projected Surplus/(Deficit)Includes Impact of:
Total Service Area Hospital PortionProjected Retirements +Demographics & Aging
Projected Retirements +Demographics & Aging+
Targeted Strategic Growth
Supply Demand Surplus/ (Deficit)
22.1 34.3 (12.2)
14.0 20.5 (6.5)
11.0 11.9 (0.9)
10.3 11.3 (1.0)
1.9 2.3 (0.4)
59.3 80.3 (21.0)
Segment Projected Physician Needs by Driver
32
Current Gaps
Population Growth & Aging
Succession Planning
New Served Lives
Maintain Current Market Share
Capture Incremental Market Share
• Changing needs of aging patients
• Demand from new residents
• Address potential retirements
• Serve a larger portion of the population by specialty & geography
• Fill gaps in existing services
Strategic Priority
Other Services
No Priority
Define the Hospital’s Service Line PrioritiesService Lines/Specialties
Allergy & ImmunologyBariatric SurgeryBreast SurgeryCardiac SurgeryCardiology - EPCardiology - InterventionalCardiology - MedicalColon & Rectal SurgeryDermatologyEndocrinologyFamily MedicineGastroenterologyGeneral SurgeryGynecology OncologyHematology/OncologyInfectious DiseaseInternal MedicineMaternal Fetal MedicineNephrologyNeurologyNeurosurgeryNeurosurgery - SpineObstetrics & Gynecology
SOncology SurgeryOphthalmologyOrthopedic SurgeryOrthopedic Surgery - HandOrthopedic Surgery - SpineOtolaryngologyPain ManagementPediatricsPhysical Med./RehabPlastic SurgeryPodiatryPsychiatryPulmonaryRepro. EndocrinologyRheumatologySleep MedicineSports MedicineThoracic SurgeryTransplant SurgeryUrgent CareUrologyVascular Surgery
33
Develop Customized Recruitment Targets
34
Local Market Reality
Hospital Strategy
SuccessionPlanning
Quantitative Results
Quantify Recruitment Targets by Driver of Need
35
Fill Current Gaps 11
Demographic Changes 2
Succession Planning 11
Market Share Targets 8
Total New Physicians 32
Summary Recruitment
Targets:
Create the Recruitment Strategy
36
Recruitment Approach• Increase alignment• Employ existing area physicians• New recruitment• Physician vs. extenders
Recruitment Vehicle• Employed network• Independent practices• Start-up practice
Budget and Cost• Recruitment expense• Independent practice support• Employed group economics
Financial Impact• Overall financial impact on the
institution given the recruitment strategy
Recruitment Strategy
Planned Three-Year Recruitment Activity
37
Total Three-Year Target:
32 Physicians
Employment:18 Physicians
Financially Assisted
Independent Recruitment:5 Physicians
Other Independent Recruitment:3 Physicians Non-Hospital
Recruitment:4 Physicians
Other Approaches:2 Physicians
Impact of Population Health
Population Health Scenarios
39
Medicaid Expansion
122,492
95,503
92,305
79,005
72,358
70,383
59,912
Orthopedic Surgery
Cardiology
Neurology
Primary Care
Pulmonary
Plastic Surgery
Gastroenterology
Identify Gaps to Service Existing Lives
40
Number of Served Lives
Serving Populations with an Integrated Group
How Many PCPs Needed to Support One Specialist?
41
Specialty PCPsMedical Sub-SpecialtiesCardiology - Medical 16Gastroenterology 13Hematology/Oncology 20Infectious Disease 57Pulmonary 21
Surgical Sub-SpecialtiesColon & Rectal Surgery 104General Surgery 15Neurosurgery 167Orthopedic Surgery 9Urology 20
What does “Well-Managed” Look Like?• Active use of treatment guidelines
• Physician education on ways to provide care more efficiently
• Financial incentives that reward providers for efficient utilization
• On-site utilization management of inpatient services
• The use of a primary care manager
• Integration of physician extenders
• Programs that teach populations when to seek medical assistance
• Disease management programs targeting at-risk populations
• Use of information systems that support utilization monitoring
• Active use of case managers for acute and chronically ill patients
42
What is the Potential Impact on Physician Demand?
43
SpecialtyUtilization % Change
from Traditional toWell-Managed
Primary Care (13%) decreaseObstetrics and Pediatrics 17% increaseCardiology (18%) decreaseInfectious Disease (11%) decreaseRheumatology (26%) decreasePsychiatry (4%) decreaseCardiac Surgery (8%) decreaseOphthalmology (18%) decreaseSpine Surgery (22%) decrease
Tools & Analyses
Medical Staff Development Planning Checklist
45
One-on-One Interview Findings
Physician Survey Results
Patient Access Study
Physician Supply Database
Strategic Surplus/Deficit Analyses
Served Lives Analysis
Recruitment Targets
Recruitment Strategy
Population Health Scenarios
Compliance Analysis
Executive Summary Version
Scenario Planning Tools