Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Halton-Peel … · 2020-02-07 · Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Halton-Peel 6 In fact, the proportion of total Ontario

Population Growth and Demographic

Changes in Halton-Peel

Phase I Report: Demographic Analysis

September 2000

Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Halton-Peel

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1.0 Background and Purpose District Health Councils are the local voice for health system planning. Made up of people who use and deliver health and related social services, the Council works in partnership to provide advice to the Minister of Health and Long-Term Care on local health planning needs and the development and implementation of a balanced and integrated health system. There are 16 District Health Councils representing 16 health planning districts in the province of Ontario, each of which as its own unique set of characteristics and population based needs. With knowledge of ministry policy directions, local provider capacities, and health needs of the population, District Health Councils are uniquely positioned to help shape the local health care service delivery system in order to best meet the needs of the population. In the Fall of 1999, the District Health Council initiated a multi-phased project aimed at gaining a better understanding of population growth and demographic changes and their potential impact on future utilization of health care services. This report summarizes the findings of the first phase of this project and is focused on understanding the population growth and demographic changes in Halton and Peel set in the context of the province of Ontario. Future reports will summarize additional phases of work, which will focus on projections of utilization for hospitals, projections of utilization for community services and future service models. Other District Health Council projects will use this baseline data to outline needs in specific areas such as physician and health human resources, long term care, mental health, etc. The purpose of this series of reports is both to educate and inform/guide ourselves as we undertake to plan for the health care needs of the population; for the providers of health care in Halton and Peel to use and incorporate into their own internal planning; and for the government in setting policy and allocating funds to meet the needs of the population. 2.0 Methods Population estimates and projections were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care Provincial Health Planning Database for comparative data at the provincial and district health council level. Halton and Peel Regional Municipality Planning Departments provided population projections at the municipal level that more accurately reflected local population planning issues. Demographic characteristics including ethnicity, immigration, language, income and education were obtained from the 1996 Statistics Canada Census. Census data were analyzed at the county level (Halton and Peel) and also included Ontario data for comparison purposes.


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Figure 1. District Health Councils

11 22

33

44 5566

77 88 99

11001111

1122

1144

1155

1166

1133

Southwest Region 1 - Essex, Kent and Lambton DHC 2 - Thames Valley DHC 3 - Grey Bruce Huron Perth DHC Central South Region 4 - Grand River DHC 5 - Niagara DHC 6 - Hamilton-Wentworth DHC Central West Region

North Region

7 - Waterloo Region, Wellington Dufferin DHC 8 - Halton Peel DHC 9 - Toronto DHC 10 - Simcoe York DHC 11 - Durham, Haliburton, Kawartha and Pine Ridge DHC East Region 12 - Southeastern Ontario DHC 13 - Champlain DHC 14 - Northern Shores DHC 15 - Algoma, Cochrane, Manitoulin and Sudbury DHC 16 - Northwestern Ontario DHC


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Figure 2. Halton-Peel District Health Council

Caledon

Milton

Oakville

Burlington

Halton Hills

Mississauga

Brampton


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3.0 Findings 3.1 Population Growth In 1996, there were almost 1.3 million people living in Halton and Peel Regions, representing the second largest planning district in the Province, on a population basis (Figure 3). In 2016, the population of Halton-Peel planning district is projected to be almost 2 million. Figure 3. Halton-Peel Total Population Growth, 1996-2016

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Source: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care Provincial Health Planning Database; Queen�s Printer for Ontario, 2000


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From 1996 to 2016, the Halton-Peel planning district is projected to experience a growth rate of approximately 57%, compared to a provincial average of approximately 25% (Figure 4). This projected population growth will result in an increase of over 50% in the size of the population, which will approach 2 million people in 2016. Although Halton-Peel shares the distinction of having the highest growth rates in the province with the Simcoe-York planning district, in absolute numbers, there will be significantly more people in Halton-Peel. Figure 4. Population Growth Rates by District Health Council and Ontario, 1996-2016

14.3%

30.4%

10.2%

24.9%

17.8%15.7%

35.5%

9.7%

6.0%

12.6%14.1%13.4%

57.4%66.6%

2.1%

7.9%

-1.6%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Essex K

ent La

mbton

Grey Bruc

e Huro

n Perth

Thames

Valley

Grand R

iver

Hamilto

n Went

worthNiag

ara

Waterloo

Welli

ngton

Dufferin

Durham

HKPR

Halton P

eel

Toronto

Simcoe York

Champla

in

South E

astern

Algoma C

ochran

e Mani

toulin

Sudbury

Northern

Shores

Northwest

ern Onta

rioOnta

rio



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In fact, the proportion of total Ontario growth will be highest in Halton-Peel. From 1996 to 2016, 2,760,000 new people will live in Ontario (this refers to net growth, including all in/out migration, births and deaths). Out of the 2,760,000 new Ontario residents, over 25% will reside in the Halton-Peel planning district, representing an additional 707,000 people (Figure 5). In absolute numbers, this is significantly more than any other area of the province and is equivalent to adding a population greater than the current City of Mississauga. Figure 5. Proportion of Total Provincial Growth by District Health Council, 1996-2016

Durham HKPR9.9%

Toronto14.0%

Simcoe York23.0%

Champlain6.7%

10 Other DHCs13.8%

Waterloo Wellington Dufferin

7.1%

Halton Peel25.6%

(100% = 2,760,000 persons)



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Figure 6 demonstrates where the growth is projected to occur in Halton and Peel by municipality. Growth is projected to occur in all municipalities across the planning district. However, Mississauga and Brampton will have the largest absolute growth. It is important to note that Brampton, Milton and Caledon are all projected to double in size. Figure 6. Halton-Peel Population Growth by Municipality, 1996-2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

Mississ

auga

Brampto

n

Caledo

n

Oakvill

e

Burling

tonMilto

n

Halton

Hills

19962016

Source: Regional Municipalities of Halton and Peel, 2000


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The proportion of total Halton-Peel growth will be highest in Brampton. Over the next 20 years, over 232,000 new people are projected to reside in Brampton (Figure 7). Figure 7. Proportion of Total Halton-Peel Growth by Municipality, 1996-2016

Mississauga22.2%

Oakville14.0%

Burlington6.4%

Milton8.7%

Caledon5.9%

Halton Hills3.6%

Brampton39.3%

(100% = 591,000 persons) Source: Regional Municipalities of Halton and Peel, 2000 In summary, given the absolute numbers and rate of growth anticipated for the Halton-Peel district, planning for additional infrastructure must take place now. This includes all infrastructure services, such as roads, utilities, schools, and health care services.


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3.2 Changing Demographics Not only is the Halton-Peel population growing, but the demographic profile is changing in two significant ways. First, the population is aging faster than other parts of Ontario and, second, the population represents one of the most culturally diverse in the province. 3.2.1 Aging Population pyramids are a useful graphical representation of the changes in age and sex composition of the population. The horizontal bars on a population pyramid represent the percentage of each age and sex group relative to the total population. Figure 8 shows the population pyramid for Halton-Peel and its change from 1996 to 2016. In absolute terms, the shape of the pyramid changes significantly above the 45-49 age group. Although the population of Halton-Peel is frequently referred to as a young population, this analysis clearly demonstrates that over the next 20 years we will see a significant change. Figure 8. Halton-Peel Age and Sex Distribution, 1996 and 2016

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Percentage

1996 (total population: 1,232,000) 2016 (total population: 1,939,000) Source: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care Provincial Health Planning Database; Queen�s Printer for Ontario, 2000

Males Females


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The population aged 65 and older is growing at the fastest rate in the province. Figure 9 shows the top five fastest growing planning districts among aged 65 and older in the province. Figure 9. Population Aged 65+ Growth Rates by District Health Council and Ontario, 1996-2016 (by 5-year time period)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

Halton Peel

Simcoe York

Waterloo WellingtonDufferin

Champlain

Durham HKPR

Ontario



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Figure 10 shows the growth in the population aged 65 and older in the top five largest planning districts in the province by population aged 65 and older. In 2006, Halton-Peel is projected to have the second largest population aged 65 and older in Ontario. Figure 10. Total Population Aged 65+ by District Health Council, 1996-2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

TorontoHalton PeelSimcoe YorkChamplainDurham HKPR



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Figure 11 shows that by 2016 there will be 844,000 additional residents aged 65 and older in Ontario compared to 1996. The largest percentage of these additional persons aged 65 and older (20.0%) is projected to reside in Halton-Peel. Figure 11. Proportion of Total Provincial Growth Aged 65+ by District Health Council, 1996-2016

Durham HKPR7.8%

Toronto16.8%

Simcoe York15.8%

Champlain9.6%

10 Other DHCs24.0%

Waterloo Wellington Dufferin

5.9%

Halton Peel20.0%

(100% = 844,000 persons)

Source: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care Provincial Health Planning Database; Queen�s Printer for Ontario, 2000 The prevalence of illness increases with age, as does the use of medical services. In 1993, persons aged 65 years and older, who represented 11.4% of the total Canadian population accounted for approximately 40% of total direct costs (Health Canada, Economic Burden of Illness in Canada, 1993). Direct costs included hospitalization, physician care and drug expenditures. However, a greater proportion of total direct costs on the population aged 65 and older may represent appropriate utilization for this age group. In addition, although population aging contributes to rising health care costs, it is important to recognize that other factors such as inflation and increasing drug costs also contribute to overall rising health care costs.


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3.2.2 Cultural Diversity Cultural values and beliefs may influence health seeking behaviour and utilization of health care services. Identifying particular communities with diverse ethnic groups may help health system planning to reduce potential barriers for these populations. The Statistics Canada 1996 Census definition of ethnic origin refers to the ethnic or cultural groups to which the respondent�s ancestors belong. However, reporting of ethnic origin may represent a limitation as ethnicity may be misinterpreted as citizenship, nationality or language. Furthermore, it is also important to recognize cultural variations and differences may exist within a single ethnic group. The Halton-Peel planning district represents a culturally diverse population. Figure 12 and Table 1 demonstrate that Peel is more culturally diverse than Halton, as measured by respondent ethnic origin. In 1996, approximately 50% of Peel residents indicated a single ethnic origin other than British or Canadian, compared to approximately 23% in Halton. Figure 12. Population by Ethnic Origin, Halton and Peel, 1996 Halton Peel

British19.7%

Canadian12.5%

Multiple Origins45.2%

French1.3%

Chinese1.1%

Italian3.2%

German2.1%

Dutch2.2%

Portuguese1.7%

Other single origins8.1%Polish

1.5%

East Indian1.4%

British11.0%

Canadian8.3%

Italian6.4%

Portuguese4.2%

Chinese3.9%

Polish3.2%

East Indian7.8%

Jamaican2.8%

Other single origins17.6%

Multiple origins31.2%

German1.3%

Filipino2.3%

Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996


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Table 1. Population by Ethnic Origin, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1996

Halton Peel Ontario # % # % # % Total pop. by ethnic origin 337,440 100.0

Total pop. by ethnic origin 849,305 100.0

Total pop. by ethnic origin 10,642,790 100.0

Multiple origins 152,560 45.2

Multiple origins 265,380 31.2

Multiple origins 4,185,675 39.3

Single origins 184,875 54.8

Single origins 583,925 68.8

Single origins 6,457,115 60.7

Ranking of Single Origins Ranking of Single Origins Ranking of Single Origins British 66,440 19.7 British 93,345 11.0 British 1,478,435 13.9 Canadian 42,290 12.5 Canadian 70,865 8.3 Canadian 1,289,135 12.1 Italian 10,920 3.2 East Indian 65,885 7.8 Italian 482,830 4.5 Dutch 7,335 2.2 Italian 54,020 6.4 Chinese 365,420 3.4 German 6,945 2.1 Portuguese 36,030 4.2 French 301,635 2.8 Portuguese 5,790 1.7 Chinese 32,995 3.9 East Indian 242,255 2.3 Polish 5,080 1.5 Polish 27,200 3.2 German 234,590 2.2 East Indian 4,655 1.4 Jamaican 23,505 2.8 Portuguese 181,470 1.7 French 4,325 1.3 Filipino 19,870 2.3 Dutch 168,215 1.6 Chinese 3,620 1.1 German 10,930 1.3 Polish 164,085 1.5 Other single origins 27,475 8.1

Other single origins 149,280 17.6

Other single origins 1,549,045 14.6



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�Immigrants� refer to individuals who have been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. This category excludes non-permanent residents and non-immigrants who are Canadian citizens by birth. Recent immigrants represent a population that may have different health care needs and different levels of health care utilization. Recent immigrants may also lack familiarity with the health care system and thus have less accessibility to health care. In 1996, 40% of the Peel population were immigrants as opposed to 23% in Halton and 26% in the province (Figure 13). Of those immigrants in Peel Region, 22% were recent immigrants (immigrated into Canada between 1991-1996) (Table 2). Figure 13. Immigration Status, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1996 Halton Peel Ontario

Non-immigrant population Non-permanent residents Total immigrant population Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996 Table 2. Period of Immigration, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1996

Period of Immigration Halton Peel Ontario # % # % # % Before 1961 22,425 29.4 38,915 11.5 588,800 21.6 1961-1970 17,110 22.4 55,775 16.4 450,425 16.5 1971-1980 16,890 22.1 80,020 23.6 522,950 19.2 1981-1990 12,705 16.7 90,330 26.6 599,330 22.0 1991-1996 7,160 9.4 74,320 21.9 562,980 20.7Total immigrant population 76,290 100.0 339,365 100.0 2,724,490 100.0 Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996

76.9%

0.5%

22.6%

59.3%

0.7%

40.0%

73.7%

0.7%

25.6%


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Effective communication is essential in receiving health prevention messages and adequate health care. Residents who do not know either English or French language may have reduced access to health information and services and are at greater risk of social isolation. In 1996, 0.6% of Halton population and 3.1% of Peel Region population could not converse in either English or French (Table 3). Table 3. Knowledge of Official Languages, Halton, Peel and Ontario 1996

Halton Peel Ontario # % # % # % Neither English nor French 1,950 0.6 26,355 3.1 244,785 2.3English and French 34,115 10.1 60,545 7.1 1,234,895 11.6English only 301,055 89.2 761,745 89.7 9,116,165 85.7French only 325 0.1 660 0.1 46,940 0.4Total 337,440 100.0 849,305 100.0 10,642,790 100.0 Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996


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Population by home language also demonstrates the cultural diversity in Peel (Table 4). In Peel, 19.1% of single responses indicated a home language other than French or English. The top five languages spoken at home in Peel after English were Punjabi, Chinese, Polish, Portuguese, and Italian. Table 4. Population by Home Language, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1996

Halton Peel Ontario # % # % # %

Total pop. by home language 337,435 100.0

Total pop. by home language 849,305 100.0

Total pop. by home language 10,642,790 100.0

Multiple responses 4,345 1.3



Single responses 333,095 98.7

Single responses 815,440 96.0

Single responses 10,384,340 97.6

English 313,720 93.0 English 649,060 76.4 English 8,773,295 82.4 French 2,395 0.7 French 4,115 0.5 French 287,190 2.7 Non-official languages 16,985 5.0

Non-official languages 162,265 19.1

Non-official languages 1,323,850 12.4

Ranking of non-official languages

(single responses)


(single responses)


(single responses) Portuguese 2,040 0.6 Punjabi 28,675 3.4 Chinese 273,955 2.6 Polish 1,990 0.6 Chinese 22,185 2.6 Italian 136,210 1.3 Chinese 1,800 0.5 Polish 17,675 2.1 Portuguese 91,775 0.9 Italian 1,685 0.5 Portuguese 14,270 1.7 Polish 84,530 0.8 Croatian 1,130 0.3 Italian 10,365 1.2 Spanish 68,610 0.6 Punjabi 1,210 0.4 Spanish 7,685 0.9 Punjabi 58,575 0.6 German 800 0.2 Tagalog 6,600 0.8 Tamil 47,320 0.4 Arabic 570 0.2 Vietnamese 6,135 0.7 Arabic 44,850 0.4 Serbian 500 0.1 Arabic 5,290 0.6 Vietnamese 44,000 0.4 Spanish 500 0.1 Croatian 4,800 0.6 German 41,495 0.4 Other languages 4,730 1.4

Other languages 38,555 4.5

Other languages 432,505 4.1



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3.2.3 Income and Education Studies have increasingly shown income to be an important determinant of health. Individuals with higher incomes have greater health (lower morbidity, greater life expectancy, fewer potential years life lost, higher self-rated health status) than those with lower incomes. Low income rates may help identify populations who have increased risk of illness and mortality, as well as increased utilization of health care services. In the 1996 Census, Statistics Canada set the low income cut-offs at 20% higher than what the average family spends on basic necessities (food, shelter and clothing). Low income cut-offs are updated annually by changes in the consumer price index and are set for unattached individuals, and for different sizes of families. In 1995, Halton and Peel Regions had a lower proportion of residents living below the low income cut-off point compared to Ontario (Table 5). Although, the proportion of residents classified as low income was greater in Peel relative to Halton. Table 5. Proportion of Low Income, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1995 Halton Peel Ontario % % % Economic families* 7.5 13.6 14.8 Unattached individuals 30.8 31.2 37.9 Total population in private households 9.3 15.0 17.7 * �Economic families� refers to a group of two or more persons who live in the same dwelling and are related to each other by blood, marriage, common-law or adoption. Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996


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Education is also an important determinant of health. Evidence from the literature demonstrates that individuals with higher education are healthier than those with lower education. Although this effect is likely to be related to income, increased decision making skills, coping skills and locus of control � which are all primarily associated with education � are important determinants of health. In 1996, 4.9% of Halton residents and 8.0% of Peel residents reported having less than grade 9 education as opposed to 10.0% in the province of Ontario (Table 6). Table 6. Education Level of Population Aged 15+, Halton, Peel and Ontario, 1996 Education Level Halton Peel Ontario # % # % # % Less than grade 9 13,120 4.9 52,570 8.0 845,385 10.0 Grades 9 to 13 89,665 33.8 242,050 37.0 3,170,835 37.6 Other* 81,045 30.5 189,095 28.9 2,362,370 28.0 University 81,700 30.8 171,280 26.1 2,050,615 24.3 Total 265,530 100.0 655,005 100.0 8,429,215 100.0 * �Other� includes trades certificate or diploma and other non-university education. Source: Statistics Canada Census, 1996


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4.0 Conclusions

• At a population of approximately 1.3 million in 1996, Halton-Peel represents the second largest planning district in the province.

• Halton-Peel is projected to be one of the fastest growing planning districts in the

province from 1996 to 2016.

• Halton-Peel�s population is projected to increase by 707,000 from 1996 to 2016.

• Halton-Peel is projected to be the fastest growing planning district in the province among people aged 65 and over from 1996 to 2016.

• The Halton-Peel planning district includes a culturally diverse population.

• Halton and Peel Regions differ with respect to demographic and socio-economic

indicators.

• Identifying demographic and socio-economic indicators is necessary for planning present and future health system needs.

• Further research should attempt to translate the projected population growth and changing demographics into the need for health services in the Halton-Peel planning district.

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Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Halton-Peel … · 2020-02-07 · Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Halton-Peel 6 In fact, the proportion of total Ontario