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Population Geography: WHERE AND WHY?
Distribution of World Population Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-
Malthusians
3 important things
More people than ever before
World population has increased at a faster rate after 1950’s than ever before
AND almost all population growth is concentrated in less developed countries (LDC’s)
Density
Number of people occupying an area of land– Helps geographers to describe the
distribution of people comparison to available resources
– Arithmetic and physiological
Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. (total # of people / total land area) AKA population density
U.S. 300 million people / 3.7 million square miles = about 80 people per square mile
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land. (U.S. 445 persons per square mile
World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!
Total: 7 billion on planet as of 2011
Current Population counter: http://www.worldometers.info/
Five most populous regions and countriesREGION POP. COUNTRY POP.
East Asia 1.5 billion China1.254 billion South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million Europe 750 million U.S. 274 million SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million East N. Am. 120 million Brazil 168 million
Ecumene
Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900
Ecumene, or portion of the earth’s surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earth’s land area.
The “inhabited world!”
Crude means: looking at society as a whole!
Total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people
Total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people
Natural Increase Rate: subtract CDR from CBR (CBR – CDR) after converting to a %
Birth Control Programs One family/one child
policies– Female infanticide– Social compensation fees
Sterilization Loss of status Termination
healthcare/food coupons
Free birth control Increased literacy
World Death Rates
Infectious diseases– HIV/AIDS– SARS
Degenerative diseases– Obesity– Tobacco use
Epidemiological transition
Doubling TimesThe doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.
World = 50U.S. = 34MDC = 543LDC = 40Honduras = 22Belize = 19Denmark = 700Russia = never?
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
PalestinianTerritories
Fertility Rate
1975-1980 7.39
1980-1985 7.00
1985-1990 6.43
1990-1995 6.46
1995-2000 5.99
2000-2005 5.57Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years.
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. Africa Fertility
Rate
1975-1980 6.60
1980-1985 6.45
1985-1990 6.11
1990-1995 5.67
1995-2000 5.26
2000-2005 4.97
U.K.Total
fertility rate
1975-1980 1.72
1980-1985 1.80
1985-1990 1.81
1990-1995 1.78
1995-2000 1.70
2000-2005 1.66
Infant Mortality
Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004
Demographic Transition Modelwww.prb.org/pdf04/transitionsinWorldPop.pdf (check out pg 8)
The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.
The Demographic Transition
The Demographic Transition– 1. Low growth – 3. Moderate growth– 2. High growth – 4. Low growth
Population pyramids– Age distribution– Sex ratio
Countries in different stages of demographic transition
Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Model Stage one
– Crude birth/death rate high– Fragile population
Stage two– Lower death rates– Infant mortality rate– Natural increase high
Stage three– Indicative of richer developed countries– Higher standards of living/education
Stage Four– CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =– ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth – Most Northern and Western Euro countries
Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration.
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.
Low Growth in Denmark
Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
Pre-industrial CBR and CDR
high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters.
Population is a constant and young pop.
Stage One
Stage Two Death rates
drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc.
Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.
Stage Three Birth rates fall
– Access to contraception– Increase in wages– Urbanization– Move away from
subsistence agriculture.– Education of women
Population growth begins to level off
Stage Four
Low birth AND low death.
Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth.
Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.
Soooo….
A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low.
Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
Now Stage 4 Historically
– Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750
– Stage 2 – High growth 1750-1880
– Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s
– Stage 4 – Early 1970’s-present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3
• it is not an exact science!!!!!!!! (Possible Stage 5????)
Remember… Demographic Transition is
not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!
Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 and 2
– Infectious and parasitic disease.
– “natural checks” according to Malthus
Stages 3 and 4– Degenerative and human
created disease.– Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack, etc)
Possible Stage 5– Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease.
Population Shift
Overpopulation When consumption of
natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.
Beijing, China
Tokyo, Japan is the most densely populated city.
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted:
population would outrun food supply
decrease in food per person.
Assumptions Populations grow
exponentially. Food supply grows
arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos
inevitable.
0
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1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Food Population2 24 48 1616 256
Population J-Curve
Pop
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an
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Con
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The Endhttp://grist.org/population/2011-10-24-population-7-billion-unpacked-a-comic/
(Look at stats on main page and then look at parts of the comic (pg.
2 and 3)