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Popular Responses to Spatial Inequality
Prof Ivan Turok & Dr Jackie Borel-SaladinEconomic Performance and Development
HSRC
DST Government Cluster Policy Workshop
September 10th 2013
Context• Spatial inequalities are large & difficult to tackle• Reflect long history of pernicious policies of separating people from opportunities
• Powerful economic forces + vested interests• Many continuing tendencies to separation, especially by middle and upper-income groups
• Government policy has been light touch and favoured national redistribution and welfare
• Something else going on – people voting with their feet. Positive, developmental & deserves greater support – economic participation
2
Jobs-population misalignment: Main source of h’hold income
71%
46%
66%
43%
8%
20%
7%
13%
12%
25% 14%
33%
6% 7%9%
7%
4% 3% 5% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cities 2002 Rural areas 2002 Cities 2010 Rural areas 2010
Salaries/wages Remittances Pensions/grants Other income Other/unspecified
4
Employment rate (source: LFS)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
enta
ge e
mpl
oym
ent
Year
Urbanformal
Urbaninformal
Rural
5
Despite inferior education
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
10
20
30
40
50
No schooling
Less than primary completed
Primary completed
Secondary not completed
Secondary completed
Tertiary
Other
6
And less life/work experience (age)
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
5
10
15
20
25
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
7
Other hazards of informal settlements
•Lack of basic services• Isolated locations• Inadequate transport•Vulnerability to fire, flooding, subsidence • Insecurity and crime• Ill-health and infectious diseases• Inadequate schools etc•Ambivalent government policy
8
Similar number of hours worked
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-25
26-40
41-60
61-112
9
Nature of contract
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Not applicable
A written contract
A verbal agreement
10
Type of employment
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Formal sector (non-agricultural)
Informal sector (non-agricul-tural)
Agriculture
Private households
11
Main occupation
Urban formal Urban informal Rural0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technical and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine opera-tors and assemblers
Elementary Occupation
Domestic workers
12
Trends in employment
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percen
tage
Year
TotalMetros
TotalSecondaryCities
Rest ofSouthAfrica
Source: IHS Global Insight
13
Employment growth 1996-2012
Source: IHS Global Insight
74.9%
10.6%
14.5%TotalMetros
TotalSecondaryCities
Rest ofSouthAfrica
14
Trends in population
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percen
tage
Year
TotalMetros
TotalSecondarycities
Rest ofSouthAfrica
Better alignment: population versus jobs growth (2001-2011)
16
Conclusion
• Many positive aspects of spatial adjustment• No panacea of course • Requires greater support from different government spheres to facilitate the process and reduce barriers
17
Thank you!