Popdev and 2010 - May Corpuz

8/9/2019 Popdev and 2010 - May Corpuz

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working towards balanced growth


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Balancing Population and Development and

the 2010 Elections


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Why PCPD advocates popdev?

Population and poverty is there a connect?

Where does growth come from?

What can we do?


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In short = Popdev

A way of thinking that recognizes the intimate

relationship of population ( numbers and behavior)

with development outcomes and vice versa

Different from population development refers to

progress of a given population


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Population

birthsdeaths

net migration

population growth

age-sex composition

geographic distribution

Development

productivity

income

employment

health status

savings/investment

economic growth

State of environment


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Understanding popdev = empowerment for

Filipino families

Resources are limited => balance

The poor are the most affected =>high population

growth exacerbates poverty


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Research

Multi-media materials

Projects/models

Technical assistance to partners


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WHO ARE

THE POOR?

Photo: www.cgstock.com


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Philippine Center for Popula0on

and Development


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and Development

Family Size Poverty Incidence

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

National 44.2 40.2 39.9 35.5 31.8 33.7

1 19.0 12.8 12.7 14.9 9.8 9.8

2 20.0 18.4 21.8 19.0 14.3 15.7

3 26.6 23.2 22.9 20.7 17.8 18.6

4 36.4 31.6 30.1 25.3 23.7 23.8

5 42.9 38.9 38.3 31.8 30.4 31.1

6 48.8 45.9 46.3 40.8 38.2 40.5

7 55.3 54.0 52.3 47.1 45.3 48.7

8 59.8 57.2 59.2 55.3 50.0 54.9

9 or more 59.9 59.0 60.0 56.6 52.6 57.3Source of basic data: Family Income & Expenditures Surveys, 1985-2000, NSO

Reyes (2002)


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1.00.30.60.91.52.1

Difference (total less

wanted)

2.51.72.22.63.13.8Wanted fertility rate

3.52.02.83.54.65.9Total fertility rate

HighFourthMiddleSecondLow Total

Wealth status

Indicator

The poor are less able to achieve their

fertility goals than the rich

Source: NSO and ORC Macro, 2003 NDHS , 2003


and Development


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and Development

Human capital investment is lower

among families with larger familysizes

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Fa m ily size

Pesos

Education

expenditure per

student

Health

expenditure per

capita

Source: Orbeta 2004: basic data from APIS 2002


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Children from poor households have much lower

educational attainment than from better off households

Source: Filmer (1999) based on 1998 NDHS

Educational Attainment, Ages 15-19 by Income Class, 1998

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Grade

Proportion

A ll

Richest

Middle

Poorest

A ll 0.986 0.981 0.97 0.952 0.922 0.885 0.773 0.673 0.524

Ric hes t 0.991 0.99 0.989 0.984 0.976 0.967 0.883 0.834 0.68

Middle 0.997 0.996 0.993 0.985 0.969 0.953 0.871 0.773 0.621

Poores t 0.969 0.957 0.927 0.887 0.826 0.741 0.571 0.433 0.292

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9


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and Development

Where does

the growth

come from ?


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15

PercentPercent In MillionIn Million

Due to unwanted fertility 15.6 5.8

Due to high desired family size 18.1 6.7

Due to population momentum 66.3 24.6

Total increase from 1995Total increase from 1995

populationpopulation 100100 37.137.1

Source: Herrin, Alejandro and Marilou Costello. Sources of Future Growth in the Philippines & Implications for Public Policy. 1996


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Does it make sense to slow down?


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Time is a scarce resource

Rate of population growth in

percent

Time in years for population

to double in size

1 70

2 35

3 23

4 17

5 14

Source: Dr. Alejandro N. Herrin

A slower population growth can provide more time to

develop the economy and establish the necessary

institutions to accommodate the doubling of the populationat higher standards of living.


and Development


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and Development

Phil. Population

growing at 2.36%

annually. If thistrend continues,

the number of

Filipinos will

double in 30

years.

76.5 million

20302000 Census

153 million


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Some Policy Responses

Help couples achieve fertility goals access to FP

education (delay age at marriage or first birth,Increase birth spacing) and services

Invest in human capital health, education

Provide employment opportunities for women


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Know our candidates

Sell the idea

Vote wisely


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Documents

Popdev and 2010 - May Corpuz