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Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

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Page 1: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Polk Presentation

- for AASA Forum

Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 2: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 2© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Content

• Company introduction.

• China Passenger Car market 2007.

• Registration volume since 2002.

• Parts analysis based on registration data.

• Our new product developments in 2008.

Page 3: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 3© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

• Founded in 1870 with more than 80 years’ experience in automotive industry

• Operating globally in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific with 1,500 employees

• We provide services to every global automotive brand

• Our core purpose is:

– to collect and interpret data, and apply our automotive business expertise to help our clients make good business decisions and implement change on a global basis

R. L. Polk is a global automotive expert

Page 4: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 4© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Selection of our clients worldwide

Page 5: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 5© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

• Polk China is a Joint Venture between R. L. Polk & Co and the Chinese Automotive Technology and Research

Centre (CATARC - 中国汽车技术研究中心 )

• Active in the Chinese market since January 1st, 2002

• China clients include major OEMs like VW, AUDI, BMW, Honda, Toyota, Ferrari, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Foton and Hyundai Finance

Beijing Polk-CATARC

Page 6: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 6© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Content

• Company introduction.

• China Passenger Car market 2007.

• Registration volume since 2002.

• Parts analysis based on registration data.

• Our new product developments in 2008.

Page 7: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 7© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

6 year history (2002 – 2007)

VIN

Origin (imported / domestic)

OEM

Brand

Model

Engine displacement

Transmission

Production date

Registration date

Body color (from 2007)

Vehicle Information

National level

Province level

City level

District level (county level

city or county)

Postal code level

Geography Information

Property type

(personal / company)

Purchase type

(loan / cash)

Gender (from 2007)

Age (from 2007)

Owner Information

Passenger vehicle registration data – Data elements

Model and Geography Segmentation

Polk model segmentation – Body style and Vehicle size

Customized model segmentation

Customized geography segmentation

Page 8: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 8© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Data Comparison

Registration data can reflect China Passenger vehicle market domestic demand more accurately than wholesale data

Note:(1) Passenger Vehicle includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up. (2) Wholesale data includes export and domestic demand, excludes import data. So registration data reflects the domestic demand.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

PV

re

sg

istr

ati

on

vo

lum

e(u

nit)

PV registration data

PV wholesale data

Stock increase led to wholesale data higher in Nov and Dec, lower in Jan

Page 9: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 9© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

PV Registration Volume by Year

PV registration in 2007 maintained its steady growth, reaching 4,663,245 units, a year-on-year growth of 21.9%

118

198

237

302

382

466

67.0%

20.2%

27.1% 26.5%

21.9%

0

100

200

300

400

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

PV

re

gis

tra

tio

n u

nit

s (

10

k)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

YO

Y G

row

th (

%)

PV registration data(10k)

YOY Growth(%)

Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.

Page 10: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 10© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

PV Registration Volume and YoY Growth by Province

Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.

90%

Page 11: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 11© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

19.5% 23.2% 25.8% 27.6% 27.1% 29.9%

47.5% 37.0% 30.2% 24.5% 24.2%24.7%

8.0%10.5%

12.4%12.9% 14.7%

14.1%

2.0%5.1% 8.5% 11.4% 10.5% 7.6%

23.0% 24.2% 23.0% 23.6% 23.5% 23.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Chinese

Korean

American

European

Japanese

Market share of Japanese brands grew steadily and accounted for nearly 30% in 2007

Origin AnalysisM

ark

et

Sh

are

(%)

Page 12: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 12© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

26.8%

39.1%

6.6%

23.7%

8.6%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

Hatchback Sedan MPV SUV Others

Registration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

YOY%

2006 2007 YOY%

Avg. YOY% of PV market : 21.9%

Body Style Analysis

SUVs achieved faster year-on-year growth than any other body styles in 2007

PV Market Growth ( by body style)

Page 13: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 13© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Segmentation Analysis

The medium segment accounted for nearly 50% of the total PV market in 2007M

ark

et

Sh

are

(%)

6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 8.2% 7.0% 6.2%

21.0% 23.5% 23.6% 21.1% 20.6%17.0%

35.6% 32.3%36.7% 40.5% 42.6%

46.6%

25.1% 25.4%20.9% 18.9% 18.9% 20.0%

12.2% 12.5% 11.6% 11.3% 10.9% 10.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Large

UpperMedium

Medium

Small

Mini

Page 14: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 14© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Legend

Top 5 Provinces

of Jap Brands Market Share

**Japanese brands’ weight in provinces’ PV market

Japanese Brands

Market Share – Total 2007

Jap Brands Total Reg.: 1,392,139

National Aver. Market Share: 29.9%

1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Market Share by Province

Prov. Market Share

Guangdong 49.8%

Hainan 43.2%

Fujian 36.9%

Zhejiang 35.1%

Liaoning 30.9%

Higher than 40%29.9% - 40%

25% - 29.9%

- 25%0%

Page 15: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 15© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

YOY Growth ComparisonJap Brands Vs. Province Market

Total 2007 vs. Total 2006

Top 5 Provinces

of Jap Brands YOY Growth

Legend

1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Japanese Brands YOY Growth Vs. Total Market YOY Growth by Province

Jap Brands YOY Growth Higher than Province Market

Jap Brands YOY Growth Lower than Province Market

Prov. YOY Growth

Tibet 89.9%

Qinghai 75.9%

Gansu 60.6%

Henan 52.9%

Hunan 48.8%

Page 16: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 16© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

More new models were released by Japanese OEMs in 2006 and 2007

1. Japanese Brands Analysis - New Models

6 7

25

10

182

8

16

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Korean American Chinese European Japanese

Imported

Domestic

8

15

2526

32

Note: “new model” includes models just launched ,facelifts and new generation models, excludes small modifications and versions

Page 17: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 17© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

1. Camry - Winner in Upper Medium Sedan Segment

Camry was released in Jun 2006, its market share reaching 20% in the upper medium sedan segment in 2007 .Magotan performed below expectation with its market share only reaching 5%.

New model release analysis

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 6 12 18 24sh

are

in u

pp

er

me

diu

m s

eg

me

nt

(%

Accumulated time after release(month)

Camry Magotan Passat-lingyu

Page 18: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 18© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54

Accord life-cycle analysis

The 7th generation introduced in Feb 2003

The 8th generation introduce in Jan 2008

Present analysis Performance forecast

60 66 72 78 88 …… …… ……

Average share:18.3%

Average share:27.7% Average

share:25.4%

Average share:19.2%

Average share:14.8%

The life cycle of the 8th generation Accord may be similar to that of the 7th generation, reaching its peak in the second year

1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Accord’s Life-cycle

Accumulated time after release ( month)

Page 19: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 19© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

ZHEJIANG

YUNNANXINJIANG

TIBET

TIANJIN

SICHUAN

SHANXI

SHANGHAI

SHANDONG

SHAANXI

QINGHAI

NINGXIALIAONING

JILINJIANGXI

JIANGSU

INNER MONGOLIA

HUNANHUBEI

HENAN

HEILONGJIANG

HEBEIHAINAN

GUIZHOU

GUANGXI

GUANGDONG

GANSU

FUJIAN

CHONGQING

BEIJING

ANHUI

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

2. SUV Analysis - by Province

SUV market share in PV was higher in the northwest region, and some other regions like Anhui and Beijing also showed rapid growth

SUV Registration YOY%

SU

V S

hare in

PV

SUV Registration Growth ( 2007)

SUV Share in PV ( National ) 7.2%

National YOY% of SUV 39.1%

Page 20: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 20© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

• SUV models priced between RMB150,000-250,000 achieved a significant increase• Luxury SUV models were hot sellers in Zhejiang and Beijing

2. SUV Analysis - by Price Range

Page 21: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 21© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

In terms of segment, the main driving force for SUVs in 2007 came form the medium segment, with the CRV leading the growth

0.3%

46.4%

16.5%

36.9%

0.3%

52.1%

16.5%

31.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Small Medium Upper Medium Large

se

gm

en

t sh

are

(%

2006 2007

Medium SUV YOY increase( unit)

CR-V 17,186

Tucson 14,037

Hover 10,699

Zhongtai2008 9,900

Tiggo 5,710

Total 62,761

2. SUV Analysis - by Segment

CR-VTucson……

JimnyTerios……

Santa FePaladin……

Land Cruiser Q7……

Page 22: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 22© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

2. SUV Analysis - Winner: Honda CRV

Released in Apr 2007, the 3rd generation CRV became the leader in the medium SUV market veryquickly with it’s share exceeding 30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42

CR

V s

ha

re in

me

diu

m S

UV

(%

Accumulated time after release(month)

The 3rd CRV released in Apr 2007The 2nd CRV released in Apr 2004

The 2nd CRV’s share is 23.5% in it’s life-cycle.

Page 23: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 23© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Registration Volume of PorscheCayenne Competitor Set :

Beijing( Jan-Dec 2007)

Total Cayenne competitor setRegistrations: 2,168 units

Legend of Registration volumeand dealerships locationsby brand

Beijing Jan-Dec 2007 by Post Code: Cayenne Competitor Set

Cayenne competitor set includes: Porsche Cayenne (incl. S and Turbo) Audi Q7 BMW X5 Mercedes-Benz ML Series Volkswagen Touareg

AUDI

BMW

MERCEDES-BENZ

PORSCHE

VOLKSWAGEN

OVER 50

30 to 50

10 to 30

5 to 10

0 to 5

Page 24: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 24© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

3. Medium Segment Analysis - Body Style

Sedans still dominated the medium segment with almost 80% of market share MPV and SUV segments showed rapid growth

Market Growth in Medium Segment ( by body style)

67.4%

56.3%

29.0%31.4%

24.4%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

Hatchback Sedan MPV SUV Others

Registration

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

YOY%

2006 2007 YOY%

Avg. YOY% of PV market : 33.1%Avg.YOY% of Medium

segment : 33.1%

Page 25: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 25© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

3. Medium Segment Analysis - Sedan

The top 5 models accounted for 36% of the total medium sedan market, but their year-on-year growth rates were much lower than the average rate.

Top 5 Models of Medium Sedan ( 2007) Top 5 Medium Sedan Growth on Registration

Note : Family II was released on Aug.31, 2006

JETTA10.7%

EXCELLE8.7%

ELANTRA6.6%

FAMILY II5.0%

SANTANA 30005.2%

Other mediumsedan63.8%

Body Style 2006 2007 YOY%

Medium SedanTotal

1,308,883 1,719,289 31.4%

JETTA 161,291 184,405 14.3%

EXCELLE 122,789 149,836 22.0%

ELANTRA 155,812 114,018 -26.8%

SANTANA 3000 75,267 88,761 17.9%

FAMILY II 22,202 85,784 286.4%

Other mediumsedan

771,522 1,096,485 42.1%

50 models included in Other medium sedan segment

Page 26: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 26© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

3. Medium Segment Analysis – Car Buyers

Compared to Excelle, Focus is more popular amongst the young and female buyers

30% 34%

70% 66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Excelle Focus

Male

Female

Car Buyers’ Age Distribution of Excelle & Focus

Note: Excelle includes SW, sedan and HRV; Focus includes hatchback and sedan

Car Buyers’ Gender Distribution of Excelle & Focus

47%55%

46%39%

7% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Excelle Focus

>50

36-50

<35

Page 27: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 27© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

3. Medium Segment Analysis - Excelle sedan registration by grade and price

Excelle sedan registration by price

In terms of grade, Luxury 1.6 Excelle dominated the Excelle registration

By price, Excelle grades priced RMB117,800 and RMB127,800 were hot sellers

Year : 2007

Price : MSRP in Dec 2007

* Models in red color are the discontinued models

Grade

Price

Page 28: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 28© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Content

• Company introduction.

• China Passenger Car market 2007.

• Registration volume since 2002.

• Parts analysis based on registration data.

• Our new product developments in 2008.

Page 29: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 29© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Legend

Top 5 Provinces

China PV* Registrations

2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274

PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912

2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC:

OVER 76%

China PV* Registrations by Province (Year 2002-2007)

Province Registration Share

Guangdong 1,782,418 11.97%

Beijing 1,419,221 9.53%

Zhejiang 1,357,077 9.11%

Jiangsu 1,304,423 8.76%

Shandong 1,232,602 8.28%

OVER 1,000,000

500,000 to 1,000,000

300,000 to 500,000

100,000 to 300,000

0 to 100,000

Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up.

PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008

Page 30: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 30© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Top 5 Cities

Legend

City Registration Share

Beijing 1,419,221 9.53%

Shanghai 628,044 4.22%

Shenzhen 473,023 3.18%

Tianjin 430,054 2.89%

Chengdu 380,028 2.55%

OVER 500,000

100,000 to 500,000

50,000 to 100,000

10,000 to 50,000

0 to 10,000

China PV* Registrations by City (Year 2002-2007)

China PV* Registrations

2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274

PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912

2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC:

OVER 76%

Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up.

PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008

Page 31: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 31© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

12.1%

6.9%7.4%

8.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2004 2005 2006 2007

China PV Market Credit Rate

Vehicle credit buying started to improve since its low point in 2005 Toyota, GM and VW finance schemes performed well in the Beijing market.

Credit rate

Average 5.8%

VW 7.2%

GM 7.3%

Toyota 11.3%

Beijing PV market credit rate

Total PV market credit rate

PV

ma

rke

t c

red

it r

ate

(%)

Page 32: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 32© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Content

• Company introduction.

• China Passenger Car market 2007.

• Registration volume since 2002.

• Parts analysis based on registration data.

• Our new product developments in 2008.

Page 33: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 33© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Rear Suspension Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007

30.4% 30.1% 30.5%

35.4%27.8%

18.9%

9.1%17.7%

18.6%

13.9% 13.9%17.4%

11.2% 10.5% 14.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007

multiple links

trailing arm

torsion beam

double wishbones

twin-link

Rear Suspension Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks

5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with double wishbones kept decreasing

Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family

Page 34: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 34© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Tire Type Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks

5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with tire type 195/60 R15 kept decreasing

Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family

41.65% 40.63% 45.08%

44.77%39.87%

24.28%

9.14% 17.68%

18.60%

11.39%4.44% 1.81% 0.66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007

205/50 R16

205/55 R16

185/65 R15

195/60 R15

195/55 R15

Tire Type Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007

Page 35: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 35© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

Content

• Company introduction.

• China Passenger Car market 2007.

• Registration volume since 2002.

• Parts analysis based on registration data.

• Our new product developments in 2008.

Page 36: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Page 36© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved

New product development in 2008

• Commercial vehicle registrations data.

• China Passenger vehicle Forecasts , model and regional level.

• New Price & Specification system with model volume.

Page 37: Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

Questions ?

Beijing Polk-CATARC

1160 Sunflower Tower 37 Maizidian Street, Chaoyang District Beijing 100026, PR China Tel   +86 10 85276955 Fax  +86 10 85275782 www.polk.com