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7 Things I’ve Learned About Political Polarization
Morris P. Fiorina
Pearson Politics Now Conference
April 16, 2010
1a. Elites have polarized (and sorted),but
Depends on Baseline
Why has Congress Polarized since the 1960s?
010
2030
4050
Fre
quen
cy
-1 -.5 0 .5 1DW-Nominate First Dimension
87th House of Representatives (1961-1962)
010
20
30
40
50
Fre
qu
en
cy
-1 -.5 0 .5 1DW-Nominate First Dimension
106th House of Representatives (1999-2000)
Source: Data provided by Keith Poole.
Why has Congress Depolarized since 1900?
010
20
30
40
50
Fre
qu
en
cy
-1 -.5 0 .5 1DW-Nominate First Dimension
87th House of Representatives (1961-1962)
56th House of Representatives (1899-1901)
87th House of Representatives (1961-1962)
Congressional Polarization A Century Apart
010
20
30
40
50
Fre
qu
en
cy
-1 -.5 0 .5 1DW-Nominate First Dimension
106th House of Representatives (1999-2000)
56th House of Representatives (1899-1901)
106th House of Representatives (1999-2001)
1b. Elites have polarized (and sorted), but
Agenda Dependency Snyder (LSQ 1992)Roberts and Smith (AJPS 2006)Lee (2010)
Agenda Dependence
1c. Elites have polarized (and sorted), but
Agenda Dependency
Behavioral Polarization
Preference Polarization?
Ideology Thermometer Scores of Party Identifiers and Activists
Source: ANESNotes: Activists are defined as respondents who engaged in 3 or more campaign activities as coded in vcf0723. Leaners are coded as partisans. The Liberal/Conservative Index (vcf0801) measures a respondent's relative thermometer ratings of "Liberals" and "Conservatives." It is calculated by subtracting the Liberal Thermometer score from 97 and averaging the result with the Conservative Thermometer score. Cases are weighted by vcf0009.
Party Elites Have Become More Extreme (From Self-Placement of National Convention Delegates on 5-Point Liberal-Conservative Scale through 2008)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Decade
% o
f D
ele
ga
tes
on
Th
eir
Re
sp
ec
tiv
e P
art
y E
xtr
em
e
Very Conservative Republicans Very Liberal Democrats
Note: Based on a 5-point Liberal-Conservative Scale. % of Republicans identifying on the most conservative position and Democratic identifying on the most liberal position.Source: Compiled by Sam Abrams from various convention delegate polls. ICPSR and Roper.
2. Respondents believe that elites
have polarized
Respondent Perceptions
Source: ANES
Average Placement of Party Positions
Source: ANES
3. Respondent positions have not polarized
No Ideological Polarization in 2008
No Increasing Ideological PolarizationPercentage of Americans who classify themselves as moderates or DK)
No Polarization on Policy Issues in 2008*
Source: 2008 ANES * “Haven’t thought much about it” responses recoded as moderates
Minimal Changes in Policy Views: 1984-2008
(Percentage Point Changes in Scale Position between 1984 and 2008)
Extremely Liberal-----------------------------------Extremely Conservative
Left Shift
Health Insurance 5 4 3 0 -1 -30
Spending/Services 4 3 5 -6 -3 -1 0
Right Shift
Aid to Minorities -2 -2 -6 -8 -4 5 14Defense Spending -1 -2 0 -4 2 2 1Jobs/SoL -1 1 -1 -2 1 1 3
4. Voter choices and evaluations
have become more polarized
Republican Percent of Two-Party Presidential Vote
Source: American National Election Studies.Note: Party identification includes strong and weak partisans.
Polarization of Choices
Centrist Strategy
Base Strategy
Gore Bush
D
R D
JFK Nixon
R
Distribution of State Presidential Approval
Distribution of State Senatorial Approval
Distribution of State Gubernatorial Approval
The 2004 Presidential Election
Party Control: Post-2004 Elections
5. Partisans have become better sorted, but imperfect and lots of issue variation (Levendusky), and far less than elites
When Should Abortion Be Legal? (2008 NES)
Strong Democrats
Strong Republicans
Never 11% 28
Only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger
26 35
For a clear need 13 16
Always as a personal choice 50 22
Source: ANES, 2008
2008 NYT Delegate Survey
Delegate Difference Identifier Difference
Illegal Immigration is a Very Important Problem 43 28
Very/Fairly Good National Economy 55 33
More important to Provide Health Care
than to Hold Down Taxes
87 50
2001 Tax Cuts Should be Made Permanent 84 13
Abortion Should Be Generally Available 61 23
Right Thing for the US to Have Taken Military Action Against Iraq
78 56
More Important to protect Environment
than to Meet Energy Needs
27 21
Personal Religious Beliefs Should Be Discussed in Presidential Campaigns
24 17
More Strict Gun Control 54 38
No Legal Recognition of Gay Relationships 41 28
Source: NYTimes/CBS Poll. September 1, 2008.
6. Many (most) statistical analyses of
electoral behavior over time are
under-identified
Candidate Competition in Two Dimensions: Arial View
Economic
Moral
Clinton
LBJ
Bush
Gore
Goldwater
Democrats and Republicans Separate on the Moral Dimension
Economic
Moral
Clinton
LBJ
Bush
Gore
Goldwater
Simulation: Unchanging Voters, Moving Candidates
Unchanging Voters Appear to Change As Candidates Move
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
T1 T2 T3 T4
Period
Reg
ress
ion
Coe
ffic
ient
Voters' economic coefficient Voters' moral coefficient
BISHOP: THE BIG SORT
County Vote Change 1976-2004:
More competitive: 33 %
Less competitive: 67
Landslide counties: + 22%
7. Gerrymandering doesn’t cause
polarizationAnsolabehere and Snyder (AJPS 2001)
McCarty, Poole and Rosenthal (AJPS 2009)
The End
Thank you
Mayer: Trends in U.S. Public Opinion
Dependent Variable Coefficient t-stat (n)
Seven Point Scales
General Ideology .004 2.98 (17)
Guaranteed Jobs -.004 -2.67 (17)
Role of Women -.022 -17.12 (16)
Defense Spending -.002 -.63 (12)
Services vs. Spending .000 -.55 (12)
Aid to Blacks .002 .65 (9)
Health Insurance -.001 -.53 (8)
Thermometers
Liberals -.005 -.16 (17)
Conservatives .019 .64 (17)
Labor Unions -.003 -.06 (15)
The Military -.095 -3.79 (12)
Big Business -.032 -.98 (12)
People on Welfare -0.67 -1.38 (12)
Gays and Lesbians .046 1.03 (9)
Environmentalists -.021 -.22 (6)
“Issues and groups that are divisive today were just as divisive in the 1970s and 1980s.”
William Mayer
Average Placement ofParty Positions
Source: ANES
No Polarization on Policy Issues in 2008*
Source: 2008 ANES * “Haven’t thought much about it” responses recoded as moderates
No Polarization on Policy Issues in 2008*
Source: 2008 ANES
Percentage of Respondents Who See Important Differences Between What the Parties Stand For: 1960 - 2008
Source: ANES
Party Sorting without Increasing Polarization
Democrats Independents Republicans
Period I 60 liberals,
40 conservatives
100 moderates 40 liberals,
60 conservatives
Period 2 90 liberals,
10 conservatives
100 moderates 10 liberals,
90 conservatives
Should Federal Government Make it More Difficult to Buy a Gun?
Strong Democrats
Strong Republicans
Make it easier 2% 6%
About the same 19 54
More difficult 78 40
Source: 2004 ANES
Candidate Competition in Two Dimensions
So, marginal distributions of positions have not changed since the 1970s, but
4. Dimensions are more correlated (more later)
Ideological Scores of Median Legislators, Committee Chair, and Prestige ChairsDemocratic Controlled House of Representatives, Elected 1948 - 2006
Districts of Selected Democratic Representatives
Source: Jay Cost and Real Clear Politics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
2004 NYT Delegate Survey
Delegate Difference
Identifier Difference
Government should do more to solve national problems
72 % 13
Cut taxes to improve economy 67 35
Make all or most tax cuts permanent 88 35
Abortion generally available 62 32
New anti-terrorism laws excessively restrict civil liberties
62 28
Extremely important to work through UN
72 35
No legal recognition of gay relationships
44 19
Partisan Differences: 1987-2007
9 11 12 912 12 15 14
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Average percentage difference between the answers of Republicans and Democrats on 40 questions asked consistently for 20 years
Source: The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007.
Average Placement of the Democratic and Republican Parties on the Lib-Con
Scale
Source: ANES
No Polarization of Policy Positions: 1984-2008(Percentage Point Changes in Scale Position between 1984 and 2008)
Extremely Liberal------------Extremely Conservative
Left Shift
Women’s Role 32 3 -4 -21 -4 -1 -3Health Insurance 5 4 3 0 -1 -3 0Spending/Services 4 3 5 -6 -3 -1 0
Right Shift
Aid to Minorities -2 -2 -6 -8 -4 5 14Defense Spending -1 -2 0 -4 2 2 1Jobs/SoL -1 1 -1 -2 1 1 3
No Ideological Polarization in 2008
1
6
2
67 7
2
4 4
1
No Polarization on Policy Issues in 2008
Source: 2008 ANES