Politics Disadvantage - Wyoming 2013

8/12/2019 Politics Disadvantage - Wyoming 2013

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Politics DAImmigration Reform

**1NC .............................................................................................................................................. 21NC Shell ............................................................................................................................... 3-6

**Uniqueness .................................................................................................................................. 7Yes Immigration ....................................................................................................................... 8Yes ImmigrationHouse ......................................................................................................... 9AT: Reform Inevitable XO ................................................................................................... 10AT: Reform InevitableGuestworker Key ............................................................................ 11

**Links ........................................................................................................................................... 121NC Cuba Engagement .......................................................................................................... 13

Ext. Cuba Engagement Link .............................................................................................. 14-152NC Delay Link ....................................................................................................................... 162NC Focus Link ....................................................................................................................... 17

**Internal Links ............................................................................................................................. 18PC Key .................................................................................................................................... 19PC Key House ...................................................................................................................... 20PC Finite ................................................................................................................................. 21PC Theory True ...................................................................................................................... 22Obama = Blame ..................................................................................................................... 23

**Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 242NC Relations ImpactSouth Asia War ................................................................................ 25Ext. India Relations IL ............................................................................................................. 26

**Affirmative Answers .................................................................................................................. 272AC Wont Pass ...................................................................................................................... 28Ext. Wont Pass the House ..................................................................................................... 292AC PC ................................................................................................................................... 302AC Winners Win ................................................................................................................... 31AT: India Relations IL ............................................................................................................. 32


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A. Uniqueness: CIR will pass house now - differences can be reconciled

The Associated Press. 4/8/13

But overall, all involved are optimistic that the time is ripe to makethe biggest changes tothe nations immigration lawsin more than a quarter-century. Formany Republicans, their lossin theNovember presidential election, when Latino and Asiansvoters backed Obamain big numbers, resonatesas evidence that they must confrontthe immigrationissue. The politics of self-deportation are behind us, said Graham, referring to GOP candidate Mitt Romneys suggestion in the presidentialcampaign. It was an impractical solution. Quite frankly, its offensive. Every corner of the Republican Party,from libertarians to the (Republican National Committee), House Republicans and the rank-and-file Republican Party member, isnow understanding there has to be an earned pathway to citizenship. After consideration by

the Judiciary Committee, floor action could start in the Senate in May, Schumer said. Meanwhile two

lawmakers involved in writing a bipartisan immigration bill in the House, Reps. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., and Mario Diaz-

Balart, R-Fla., sounded optimistic that they, too, would have a deal soon that could be

reconciled with the Senate agreement.

B. Link: Economic engagement with Latin America causes congressional

backlash that costs Obama political capital

Peter J. Meyer andMark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs and Analyst in LatinAmerican Affairs U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends

and FY2013 Appropriations, June 26th, 2012, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf]When considering foreign assistance levels for Latin Americanand Caribbean nations, Congress might

examinethe issues of political will and program sustainability. According to the State Departments first Quadrennial

Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR), the United States should assess and monitor host nations political will to make the

reforms necessary to make effective use of U.S. assistance to ensure our assistance is being targeted where it can have the most

impact.76 Unless partner nations are willing to implement complementary reforms and take ownership and sustain programs as aid

is reduced and withdrawn, the results of U.S. assistance will likely be limited and short-lived. The nations of Latin

Americaand the Caribbean have a mixed record in terms of demonstratingpolitical will and ensuring

program sustainability. The Colombian government, which has benefitted from high levels of U.S. assistance for more thana decade, has undertaken numerous reforms and raised revenue. As a result, the United States is able to carry out a managed

transition of its assistance programs in the country in which aid is s lowly reduced as Colombia takes over financial and technical

responsibility.77 Similarly, USAID is closing its mission in Panama, and closing out its voluntary family planning programs in a number

of other Latin American countries because partner nations have developed the capacity to manage and fund the programs on their

own.78 Despite these successes, numerous GAO reports over the past decade indicate that political will has often been

lacking in the region, especially with regard to raising sufficient government revenue to sustain

efforts initiated with U.S. support. A 2003 study of U.S. democracy programs in six Latin American nations found cases in which

U.S.-funded training programs, computer systems, and police equipment had languished for lack of resources after U.S. support

ended.79 Likewise, a 2010 study of counter-narcotics programs found that several countries in the region were unable to use U.S. -provided boats for patrol or interdiction operations due to a lack of funding for fuel and maintenance.80 Even MCC-funded projects,

in which assistance is contingent on partner nation actions, have run into problems with program sustainability. A July 2011 study of

the MCC compact in Honduras found that the lifespan of roads built to improve small farmers access to markets may be relativ ely

limited as the municipalities where they were constructed lack the equipment, expertise, and funding for road maintenance.81
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf


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C. Internal link: Obamas political capital is key to pass comprehensive

immigration reform

Alex Roarty, politics for the National Journal and the Atlantic There's Reason to Be OptimisticAbout CongressSeriously The Atlantic, 2/21/2013

Nevertheless, this is a new congressional session, andBoren's pessimism might possibly be

proved wrong . For the first time in a decade, if not longer, conditions are aligned for

bipartisan deal-making , raising hopes that Congress might actually do something and

satisfy the wishes ofmillions ofAmericans hungry for action. "I am pleased with the signs I see inCongress today to try to make deals," said Lee Hamilton, who was a veteran Democratic House member from Indiana.

"There are threads of it-- it's not a fabric yet -- but there are threads, and that's encouraging ." In

today's context, defining success is important -- and requiresa healthy dose of both skepticism andpragmatism.There's little hope that this Congress can reverse the-- exacerbated by, amongother things, powerful special interests and partisan media-- that has grippedWashington. The forces that drove Rep. Boren out of Congress remain potent, and the legislative atmosphere on CapitolHill is still toxic. Instead of a long-term course correction, the question is whether Republican leaders inthe House, President Obama, and Senate Democrats can facilitate a reprieve-- if only toshow the public that the institution is still functional. Cutting a deal with the broadbacking of both partiesisn't a questionso much of relieving those pressures as of learning to passlaws in spite of them. The makeup of the 113th Congress and the occupant of theWhite House make conditions riper for bipartisan legislation than at any time sincePresident George W. Bush's first years in office. Since then, Washington has been in the grip of one of twodynamics: Either one party has held Congress and the presidency, or one party, possessing limited power, has had littleinterest in passing consequential legislation. The latter was the case last session, when Republicanscontrolled only the House. In most cases, they used this chamber to approve legislation, such as Rep. Paul Ryan's eponymous

budget, that helped define the party's agenda but had no chance of gaining approval in the Senate (much less withstanding a

veto from the White House). They were trying to wait out a president whom they believed would be sent packing in 2013.Democrats were in a similar position from 2007 to 2009, when they controlled Congress but wanted to wait out Bush's tenure.

The lack of bipartisanship, of course, didn't prevent major legislation from becoming law over the past 10 years. But when

Democrats controlled Washington and passed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, or similarly empowered Republicans approved

Medicare Part D in 2003, they didn't need the backing of the other party -- and by and large didn't get it. This session

is different. Neither party has unilateral control, and yet there is an appetite, in the

first year of Obama's second term, to make a serious attempt to legislate. The lasttime Capitol Hill saw something similar came in 2001and 2002. Republicans suddenly lost theSenate when Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont defected from the GOP in the early summer, but Congress still overwhelmingly

approved the No Child Left Behind Act months later (although the first round of Bush's tax cuts passed with only a dozen or s o

Democrats on board in each chamber). Later, the parties worked together to approve a slew of national security issues after

the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But drawing comparisons to that period is difficult because of 9/11; and, besides, most of

Bush's term is hardly associated with bipartisan comity. Thebetter parallel -- and the experience current optimists point

to -- is 1996and 1997, which bridges the end ofPresident Clinton's first term and thebeginning of his second. That two-year span saw agreements on a series of importantissues, ranging from two big-ticket items(welfare reform and a balanced-budget agreement) to lesser-known achievements(such as raising the minimum wage). The similarity between that periodand now extends beyond the split control of government. Only a year earlier, Republicans hadridden the "revolution" of 1994 into control of Congress, when they promised to push their agenda whether Clinton approved

or not. But the party ultimately dealt with political setbacks, none more damaging than the government shutdown of 1996.


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The public blamed Republicans, and afterward Clinton never again trailed GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole (who was

Senate majority leader at the time of the shutdown) in a head-to-head matchup, according to preelection polls. Public

opinion might once again be pulling against Republicans, burnt as they were by

Obama's reelection and their unexpected losses in the Senate. In a January poll by The WallStreet Journal and NBC News, 49 percent of adults disapproved of the GOP -- and only 26 percent approved. It was the worst

rating for Republicans since 2008. Just as the Republicans in Clinton's time decided theirpolitical survival depended on coming to the table, the GOP of today might do thesame. "Republicans overplayed the government shutdown, and PresidentClinton won thatbattle," said Dan Glickman, a former House member who was Clinton's Agriculture secretary. "And, with that, he

effectively used the bully pulpit to control the agenda. He gave a lot of cover for

people to vote for him. It's not the only factor, but members of Congress are much [more]

likely to support a president when the people at home are inclined to support the

president." How much Obama's broad popularity matters to most GOP House

members is debatable. With many of the president's supporters packed into heavily Democratic urban districts,

most Republicans represent safely red districts. (In November, Mitt Romney won 227 congressional districts, a majority,despite losing by 4 percentage points in the national vote.) But Obama's standing could weigh more

heavily onHouse Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor than on their followers; Cantor hasrecently attempted to rebrand the party with a softer image. While their charges' interests are more parochial, they have the

national party's image to worry about. Popular opinion could prod the two leaders to reach

agreements with Obama, especially on emotional issues such as gun control and immigration . Or, at

the very least, public pressure could work to ease the disagreements that make even basicgovernment action difficult -- a factor that might have been at work whenHouse

Republicans engineered athree-month delay of the debt ceiling." They're hearing the

message outside the Beltway that 'we elected you people to make things work,'" said John Breaux, the former longtime

Democratic senator from Louisiana. The onus falls particularly hard on Boehner, whose struggles to

control his conference are well documented. More than any other player in Washington, he will determinewhether anything gets done this year.How he decides to proceed could rest on how frequently he's willingto leave conservative colleagues out in the cold and, consequently, how far he's willing to risk his speakership. The good of

the party, and not his seat of power, propelled Boehner's decision to bring the superstorm Sandy relief bill to a vote e arlier this

year, when it passed with just a minority of support from Republicans. That combination -- Democrats and the

moderate wing of the House GOP -- is the pathway to enacting a sweeping set of

bipartisan agreements . A week after the storm vote, a large bipartisan majority passed a three-month extension

of the debt ceiling. "It is hard to see this Congress being viewed as a bipartisan one, but we

have seen a glimmer of lighton the recent bipartisan vote to extend the debt ceiling," said Ron Bonjean, a

onetime aide to the Republican leadership. Maintaining that momentum in the House won't be easy,

andit

could require Obama's personal leadership.

Getting Boehner to take such aperilous route could depend in large part onsuccessful cajoling from the president. And onthis subject -- the relationships among Washington's top leaders -- discussion of a deal being cut becomes sharply pessimistic.


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Yes Immigration

Yes CIRCBO report generates momentum

Ramsey Cox, Politics for the Hill. Schumer: CBO report is huge momentum boost to

immigration reform bill The Hill, 6/18/13Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday that the Congressional Budget Officesreport that the

comprehensive immigration reform bill reduces the deficit is a hugemomentum

boost. This report is a huge momentum boost for immigration reform, Schumer said on

the Senate floor moment after the CBO report was released. This debunks the idea that immigration

reform is anything other than a boon to our economy, and robs the billsopponents

of one of their last remaining arguments. CBO estimated that the Gang of Eights bill

would reduce the deficit by $197 billion over the next ten years and reduce the deficitan additional $700 billionduring the second decade of its implementation.

Yes CIRefforts to block the deal will fall shortKaenneth Bazinger, Political Editor for the NY Daily News and Kiplinger. For Obama,

Republicans, a Pause in Partisanship 4/8/13

The truce won't last, but it will allow some major bills to pass , including immigration reform.

There's a spring thawof sorts under way in Congress, clearing the path forsome big bills to passbefore the fall, when the focus will shift to the 2014 elections for House and Senate seats.Both parties, driven bythegoodwillthat remains from their recent agreement to fund the government through the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year, are in the

mood for progress on other fronts.The biggestsurprise on tap: immigration reform. A sizable

package will pass by the end of the year . It'll include beefed-up border patrols, more

work visas for skilled and unskilled individuals and a path for legal residencyfor many

millions of people who are in the U.S. illegally. That last provision was a long shot as recently as a few months ago.Both partiesstand to benefitover time. Democrats get to claim another big winfor President Obama, allowingimmigration to join health care as a cornerstone of his legislative legacy. Republicans gain a vital trucewith Hispanic votersthat may help them in future elections.It won't be easy. Many tea partyers remain firmly opposed,

especially to provisions that would lead to citizenship or legal residency for illegal immigrants. But they'll come up short of

votes to block Democrats and mainstream Republicans, who see immigration reform as helping

businesses to fill skilled positions that Americans aren't qualified for and unskilledjobs that Americans don't want.

Yes CIRGOPs on board

John Mariani, Politics for the Times. 3/11/13

While some Republicans and conservatives remain skeptical that support for immigrationreformwill result in more votes from the Latino community, other Republicans mulling a White House bid "are

eager to pass something ," Bouie said."So Republicans may end up agreeing to the emerging

framework which would be a real breakthrough for the chances of passing real immigration

reform, albeit less ambitious than liberal supporters might like."


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Yes ImmigrationHouse

Yes CIRsenate deal will make it through the house: new deal, bipart,

momentum

Barrett and Walsh 6-18*Politics for CNN. Senate negotiators seek new compromise on immigration CNN News,

6/18/13 ln//GBS-JV]

A bipartisan group of senators is scrambling to reach a fresh compromisethey hope can

propel a proposal to overhaul U.S. immigration policy toward passage in that

chamber and provide momentum heading into the Republican-controlled House .

Yes CIRObama strategy generates momentum for House passage

Jake Sherman andAnna Palmer, Politics for Politico. White House dials up efforts with

House Republicans Politico, 6/13/13This push is strategic, of course. Obama wants to pass immigration reform, andfor the

moment the House is the biggest stumbling block between Capitol Hill and a bill being signed into law .

The White House wants to gather a gaggle of Republicans who just might support Obamas

initiatives. The president and senior staff at the White House have routinely engaged

House Republican son a variety of issues in an effort to buildwhat the President has calleda common

sense caucus that works tofind common ground on priorities like strengthening the economy, reducing the

deficit in a responsible way and reforming our broken immigration system, White House spokesman JoshEarnest wrote in an email to POLITICO. Of course, this hasnt yet brought the president and Republicans closer on policy.

These meetingsand phone calls havent resulted in legislative agreements on gun control, deficit reduction, tax reform

or an overhaul of the nations immigration laws. But itsa noticeable shift. When Obama wanted to blunt thesequester or enact new gun laws, he fanned out across the country, looking to build pressure on lawmakers by rallying their

constituents. It was widely perceived as a failure. Now, the White Houserecognizes that it must have a real

relationship with lawmakers before asking them to support something, according to

sources involved. This quiet outreach isnt Obamas only actionon the Hill. The administrationhas put a full-court press on Senate Republicans, dining with them and bringing them onto the golf

course. The White House also recently reached out to top Republican senators about adeficit deal.


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AT: Reform InevitableXO

Wont do it pref our ev because it speaks to Obamas political calculations

Keegan Hamilton, How ObamaCould (but Probably Won't) Stop Deporting Illegal Immigrants

Today, The Atlantic, 3-26-13, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/03/how-obama-could-but-probably-wont-stop-deporting-illegal-immigrants-today/274352/

On the other hand, Kenneth R. Mayer, a professor of political science atthe University of Wisconsinandauthor of the book With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and Presidential Power, argueshistory is littered

withe x ecutive o rder s popular with the president's party and condemned by the

opposition. "Democrats and liberals say, 'This is wonderful, it's about time,' while conservatives and Republicans areoutraged, saying 'He's nullifying a law, he can't do that!'" Mayer says. "The answer is they're both right. In practice, the

president can do this. But Congress could try to stop him, and the way they do that is raising

the political cost to a degree the president doesn't find acceptable ." With

immigration-reform legislation inching toward the president's desk, it's unlikely

he'll waste political capital by halting deportations or even reducing the immigrant

detainee population , despite the budgetary considerations.The prospect of doing

anything that might alienate Republicans, especially with a compromise so close,alarms activistslike Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA, an advocacy group comprised largely of small-business owners.

Doesnt solve the DA executive action causes a fight and gets rolled back

Rodriguez, 10(LawNYU, 59 Duke L.J. 1787)On the first question of political feasibility, I leave aside whether the current mix of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, the legi slative priorities of the current

president, and the legislative agenda as it is now unfolding would be conducive to the creation of an agency, largely because such details are ephemeral. Instead, theimportant question is whether Congress, as a general structural matter, will bewilling to delegate its power. Historically, Congress has been resistant to executivemeddling in the allocation of visas. During the 1965 immigration reforms, forexample, a proposal to create a commission charged with allocating visas proved tobe a sticking point.The 1965 Hart-Celler Act n152eliminated the national-origins quotas but phased in the new regime over a period of years.Members of the Johnson State Department were nonetheless concerned about the foreign policy implications of r educing the number of visas available to Northern

European immigrants, even though the visas were underutilized. n153The bill would have put into place a procedure for executive reallocation of visas to provide " the

flexibility needed to deal with unforeseeable problems of fairness and [*1839] foreign policy." n154It would have required the president to consult with a new

Immigration Board, whose task would have been conducting continuous study of migration conditions and advising the president on criteria for admission. n155Keyplayers in the House - primarily Representative Michael Feighan, Chairman of theImmigration Subcommittee of the House Committee on the Judiciary - resisted.n156Feighan argued that the Board would "usurp [Congress's] statutory duty andfunctions" of regulating immigration,n157 transforming the president's limitedpower to keep immigrants out in emergencies into a power to let them in.n158 Theadministration ultimately bowed to the pressure engendered by the specter of

executive micromanagement and dropped the Commission from the bill.n159[*1840] TheHart-Celler experience raises the classic administrative law question of why Congress does or does not delegate.n160As

noted above, in the case of immigration, Congress may be reluctant to delegate because of ageneral desire to protect its territory, as core immigration policy over time hasbecome entrenched in Congress's bailiwick. Perhaps Congress regards immigrantadmissions decisions as value judgments that do not require the expertise of agenciesor bureaucrats - a key factor in the decision to delegate. To put the proposition in lofty terms,immigrant admissions constitute membership decisions, which belong to the legislative body standing in for the people.
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AT: Reform InevitableGuestworker Key

The guestworker provision is key to any meaningful immigration reformeven

if some immigration legislation is inevitable, only political capital ensures a

substantial change, which means theres uniqueness for the DA in the contextof our impacts

Alex Nowrasteh, Immigration at CATO. Why A Guest Worker Program Is Crucial For

Immigration Reform 3/6/13Real Clear PoliticsThe U.S. Chamber of Commerce and AFL-CIO reached a tentative agreement tosupport increasing lawful migrationthrough a guest-worker program for lower-skilled migrants. The detailsare obscure, but this agreement is an essential first step for successful immigration reforma step so far ignored by the Obama administration. Without a guest-worker program, quite simply,immigration reform will fail. Overwhelmingly, immigrants come to the United Statesbecause they want jobs, and American businesses have jobs to give. Legalizing theunauthorized migrants already here is a sound policy, but without a legal channel for

workers to come, others will continue to enter the country illegally. Policymakers seem toforget that there is recent evidence to this effect. Ronald Reagan instituted an amnesty in 1986, but unauthorized immigrationcontinued unabated. Increased border and immigration enforcement and it did increase couldnt stem the tide. It is

foolish to expect legalization and enforcement alone to stop unauthorized immigration. The demand is too strong on both

sides of the labor equation. We need reforms that adapt to that reality. Why is President Obama ignoring a guest-worker visa program? Because unionsone of the presidents most valued constituencies havehistorically opposed guest workers. A 2007 immigration reform effort largely failedbecause of union efforts to kill it. Late in the game, Senate Democrats amended thebill to end its guest-worker program after five years.The amendment passed 49-48 with then-Sen.Obama, ominously, voting in favor. As a result, Republicans and business interests that supportedincreased lawful immigration withdrew their support, and the reform effort collapsed.


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Ext. Cuba Engagement Link

The Cuba lobby hates the plan

The Register, The Cuban chill, April 21st, 2013

Policy toward Cuba is frozen in place by a domestic political lobby with roots in the electorallypivotal state of Florida. The Cuba Lobby combines the carrot of political money with the stick

of political denunciation to keep wavering Congress members, government bureaucrats, and

even presidents in line behinda policy that, as President Obama himself admits, has failed for half a century and is supported by virtually no othercountries. (The last time it came to a vote in the U.N. General Assembly, only Israel and the Pacific island of Palau sided with the United States.) Of course, the news at this point

is not that a Cuba Lobby exists, but that it astonishingly lives on even during the presidency of Obama, who publicly vowed to pursue a new approach to Cuba, but whose

policy has been stymied thus far. Like the China Lobby,the Cuba Lobby isnt one organization but a loose-knit

conglomerate of exiles, sympathetic members of Congress and nongovernmental

organizations , some of which comprise a self-interested industry nourished by the flow of democracy promotion money from the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment. And like its Sino-obsessed predecessor, the Cuba Lobby was launched at the instigation of conservative Republicans in government who needed outside backers

to advance their partisan policy aims. In the 1950s, they were Republican members of Congress battling New Dealers in the Truman administration over Asia policy. In the 1980s,

they were officials in Ronald Reagans administration battling cong ressional Democrats over Central America policy. At the Cuba Lobbys request, Reagan created Rad io Mart,

modeled on Radio Free Europe, to broadcast propaganda to Cuba. He named Jorge Mas Canosa, founder of the Cuban American National Foundation, to lead t he radios

oversight board. President George H.W. Bush followed with TV Mart. Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., and Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind., authored the 1996 Cuban Liberty and Democratic

Solidarity Act, writing the economic embargo into law so no president could change it without congressional approval. Founded at the sugges tion of Richard Allen, Reagans first

national security adviser, CANF was the linchpin of the Cuba Lobby until Mas Canosas death in 1997. No individual had more influence over United States policies toward Cuba

over the past two decades than Jorge Mas Canosa, The New York Times editorialized. In Washington, CANF built its reputation by spreading campaign contributions to bolsterfriends and punish enemies. In 1988, CANF money helped Connecticuts Joe Lieberman defeat incumbent Sen. Lowell Weicker, whom Lieberman accused of being soft on Castro

because he visited Cuba and advocated better relations. Weickers defeat sent a chilling message to other members of Congress : challenge the Cuba Lobby at your peril. In 1992,

according to Peter Stones reporting in National Journal, New Jersey Democrat Sen. Robert Torricelli, seduced by the Cuba Lob bys political money, reversed his position on

Havana and wrote the Cuban Democracy Act, tightening the embargo. Today, the political action arm of the Cuba Lobby is the

U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, which hands out more campaign dollarsthan CANFs political action arm did even at itsheight more than $3 million since 1996. In Miami, conservative Cuban-Americans long have presumed to be the sole authentic voice of the community, silencing dissent by

threats and, occasionally, violence. In the 1970s, anti-Castro terrorist groups such as Omega 7 and Alpha 66 set off dozens of bombs in Miami and assassinated two Cuban-

Americans who advocated dialogue with Castro. Reports by Human Rights Watch in the 1990s documented the climate of fear in Miami and the role that elements of the Cuba

Lobby, including CANF, played in creating it. Like the China Lobby, the Cuba Lobby has struck fear into the heart of the

foreign-policy bureaucracy. The congressional wing of the Cuba Lobby, in concert with its

friends in the executive branch, routinely punishes career civil servants who dont toe the line.One of the Cuba Lobbys early targets was John Jay Taylor, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, who was given a n unsatisfactory annual evaluatio n report in 1988 by

Republican stalwart Elliott Abrams, then assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, because Taylor reported from Havana that the Cubans were serious about

wanting to negotiate peace in southern Africa and Central America. In 1993, the Cuba Lobby opposed the appointment of President Bill Clintons first choice to be assistant

secretary of state for inter-American affairs, Mario Baeza, because he once had visited Cuba. Clinton dumped Baeza. Two years later, Clinton caved in to the lobbys demand that

he fire National Security Council official Morton Halperin, who was the architect of the successful 1995 migration accord with Cuba that created a safe, legal route for Cubans to

emigrate to the United States. One chief of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Cuba told me he stopped sending sensitive cables to the State Department altogether because they so

often leaked to Cuba Lobby supporters in Congress. Instead, the diplomat flew to Miami so he could report to the department by telephone. During George W. Bushs

administration, the Cuba Lobby completely captured the State Departments Latin America bureau (renamed the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs). Bushs first assista nt

secretary was Otto Reich, a Cuban-American veteran of the Reagan administration and favorite of Miami hard-liners. Reich had run Reagans public diplomacy operation

demonizing opponents of the presidents Central America policy as communist sympathizers. In 2002, Bushs un dersecretary for arms control and international security, John

Bolton, made the dubious charge that Cuba was developing biological weapons. When the national intelligence officer for Latin America, Fulton Armstrong, (along with other

intelligence community analysts) objected to this mischaracterization of the communitys assessment, Bolton and Reich tried r epeatedly to have him fired. When

Obama was elected president, promising a new beginning in relations with Havana, the

Cuba Lobby relied on its congressional wing to stop him. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., the senior Cuban-

American Democrat in Congress and now chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, vehemently opposes any opening to Cuba.

In March 2009, he signaled his willingness to defy both his president and his party to get his

way. Menendez voted with Republicans to block passage of a$410 billion omnibus appropriations

bill, needed to keep the government running, because it relaxed the requirement that Cuba

pay in advance for food purchases from U.S. suppliers and eased restrictions on travel to the

island. To get Menendez to relent,Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had to promise in writing that

the administration would consult Menendez on any change in U.S. policy toward Cuba.


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Ext. Cuba Engagement Link

Reforming Cuba policy will be a fight

Think Progress, How the GOP Response to Beyoncs Cuba Trip Highlights Broken Policy,

April 9th, 2013Experts at CAP and the Cato Institute alike agree that the policy has been an abject failure at achieving the goals the United States

set out. On taking office, President Obama sought to roll-back some of the harsher restrictionsthe previous

administration placed on Cuba, including removing a ban on remittancesfrom Cubans in the U.S. to their

families back home and reducing travel restrictionson Americans with immediate family in Cuba. Every step

towards reforming Cuba policy, however, has been met with kicking and screaming , mostly

from the GOPwith some Democratsjoining in. While the human rights violations the Cuban regime continues to

perpetrate are most certainly a concern, campaign funding may play a strong role in the perpetuation of

U.S. policies. A 2009 report from Public Campaign highlighted the nearly $11 million the U.S.-Cuba Democracy

Political ActionCommittee, along with a network of hard-line Cuban American donors,

spent on political campaigns since2004. In the report, those candidates who received funding displayed a shift in

voting patterns on Cuba policy in the aftermath of the gift

The plans perceived as a concession to Cuba congress prefers the hardline

NY Times 10*U.S. Said to Plan Easing Rules for Travel to Cuba, August 16th, 2010,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/americas/17cuba.html?_r=3&hp&]

The Obamaadministration is planning to expand opportunities for Americans to travel to Cuba, thelatest step aimed at encouraging more contact between people in both countries, while leaving intact the decades-old embargo

against the islands Communist government, according to Congressional and administration officials. The officials, who as ked not to

be identified because they had not been authorized to discuss the policy before it was announced, said it was meant to loosen

restrictions on academic, religious and cultural groups that were adopted under President George W. Bush, and return to the

people to people policies followed under President Bill Clinton. Those policies, officials said, fostered robust

exchanges between the United States and Cuba, allowing groups including universities, sports teams,

museums and chambers of commerce to share expertise as well as life experiences. Policy analysts said the

intended changes would mark a significant shift in Cuba policy . In early 2009, President Obama lifted

restrictions on travel and remittances only for Americans with relatives on the island. Congressional aides cautioned that some

administration officials still saw the proposals as too politically volatile to announce until after the comingmidterm elections, and they said revisions could still be made. But others said the policy, which does not need legislative approval,

would be announced before Congress returned from its break in mid-September, partly to avoid a political backlash from

outspoken groups within the Cuban American lobby backed by Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of

New Jersey that oppose any softening in Washingtons position toward Havana. Those favoring thechange said that with a growing number of polls showing that Cuban-Americans attitudes toward Cuba had softened as well, the

administration did not expect much of a backlash. They have made the calculation that if you put a smarter Cuba policy on the

table, it will not harm us in the election cycle, said one Democratic Congressional aide who has been working with the

administration on the policy. That, I think, is what animates this. Mr. Menendez, in a statement, objected to the anticipated

changes. Thisis not the time to ease pressure on the Castro regime, he said, referring to President Ral

Castro of Cuba, who took office in 2006 after his brother, Fidel, fell ill. Mr. Menendez added that promoting travel would

give Havana a much needed infusion of dollars that will only allow the Castro brothers to

extend their reign of oppression.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/americas/17cuba.html?_r=3&hp&http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/americas/17cuba.html?_r=3&hp&


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2NC Delay Link

Time is key to passageintroducing the plan clogs the agenda and derails

compromise

Alex Bolton, Politics for the Hill. Pressure builds on Senate group to unveil immigration reformspecifics The Hill, 3/4/13A bipartisan Senate group working on immigration reform plans to set a timeline for

unveiling legislation, as it feels subtle pressure from the chairman of the Judiciary Committee to act.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a lead negotiator of the ad hoc group on immigration reform, says he and hiscolleagues realize the clock is ticking. They hope to soon have a timeline for unveiling

legislation.We know time is of the essence . Sometime in the next few weeks we will have a definitetimeline. We got a couple of very big issues to resolve, McCain told The Hill. A Democratic source familiar with the talks said

the group may unveil the bill itself before the end of the month . Either way, time is

running short. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), McCains negotiating partner, said he expected to have a bipartisan bill

sometime in March. There are only three weeks left until Congress leaves for a two-week Easterrecess on March 22. Lawmakersand groups advocating for reformsayMcCain, Schumer and their partners, Sens.Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), needto show substantial progress before the end of the month. Senate Judiciary Committee ChairmanPat Leahy(D-Vt.) has turned over authorshipof immigration reform to the group but his patience islimited. He is eager to move shortly after the committee marks up a series of gun-violence bills this month. Leahy putpressure on Schumer and Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) to speed up their talks over expanding background checks for private

gun sales when he scheduled a legislative markup this past week. The chairman delayed the session to give Schumer more

time but the message was clear: time is in short supply. The same is true of immigration reform. I thinkApril isprobably the markup monththeyre looking at and then to the floor ineither Mayor June, said AngelaKelley, vice president for immigration policy at the Center for American Progress. Kelley said Leahy wants to see real

progress from Schumer, McCain and Rubio before the recess. Leahys really committed to getting this

doneand hes going to watch it carefully and hes going to want to keep measuring progress. You may not get the final gradebut youll get an interim report before the recess. I would expect theyre going to want to see real progress, she said. Idont think his patience will be endless, a Democratic aide said of Leahy. One of the biggest

challenges in the immigration negotiations is how to handle future flows of

immigrant workers . Controversy over a guest-worker program derailed

comprehensive reform when the Senate last debated itin 2007. I think the problem forimmigration reform will be aboutfuture flow, access to future labor, said Graham. The reason youhave 11 million illegal workers is that lot of employers cant find labor, so we got to address that.


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2NC Focus Link

Obamas set his agenda to get immigration throughnew fights derail it

Jeff Zeleny, NYT political correspondent, For Obama, am ambitious agenda faces ticking clock

IHT, 1/24/2013.The State of the Union address that Mr. Obamawill deliver to Congress on Feb. 12 will offer the most definitive road map

yet for how the White House will set priorities in his second termas well as how it intends to avoid

becoming mired in a heated debate over one contentious topic to the detriment of

the full agenda. ''There's no doubt you want to get off to a strong start, and we've got a pretty big dance card,'' said

David Plouffe, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama who is leaving the White House this week. He ticked through a list of

agenda items that included guns, immigration and fiscal issues, but he disputed the

suggestion that one item would overtake the others. ''We clearly have this moment where

we can get immigration done ,'' Mr. Plouffe added. ''If we don't get it done, then shame on us. We've

got to seize this opportunity.''

Issues tradeoff for Obamaif the thesis of the link is true, it precludes action ofimmigration

Ken Walsh, covers the White House and politics for U.S. News, Setting Clear Priorities Will Be

Key for Obama, 12/20/2012. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2012/12/20/setting-clear-priorities-will-be-key-for-obama

And there is an axiom in Washington: Congress, the bureaucracy, the media, and other power centers can do justiceto only one or two issues at a time.Phil Schiliro, Obama's former liaison to Congress, said Obama has "always hada personal commitment" to gun control, for example.But Schiliro told the New York Times, "Given the crisis he faced

when he first took office, there's only so much capacity in the system to move his

agenda ."So Obama might be wise to limit his goals now and avoid overburdening the

system , or he could face major setbacks that would limit his power and credibility for

the remainder of his presidency.


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PC Key

PC keyovercomes barriers

DMR, The Des Moines Register, 1/22/2013

www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130122/OPINION03/301220049/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav%7Chead&nclick_check=1

Taken as an agenda for his second term, Mondays inauguraladdress included references to immigration,

climate change, gay rights, voting rights and safe schools. Achieving those things will require the president

mounting his bully pulpit to put heat on Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform,protections for the rights of gays and lesbians, gun control, environmental regulation and expansion of renewable forms of energy.

President Obama again demonstrated his gift of oratory on Monday. He delivered a well-crafted inaugural address with inspiring

themes woven throughout and a call to action for our generation to achieve the ideals of previous generations. But Obama

should have learnedin his first term that it is not enough to state lofty goals ingreat speeches. It takes

hard work, perseverance and tough-mindedness to deal with members of Congress who may

not want him to succeed.

PC keysustained focus needed to passTed Hesson, writer at ABC News. Analysis: 6 Things Obama Needs To Do for Immigration

Reform, 1-2-2013On Sunday, President Barack Obama said that immigration reform is a "top priority" on his agenda and

that he would introduce legislation in his first year. To find out what he needs to do to make

reform a reality,we talked to Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director at America's Voice, a group that lobbies for immigration reform, and Muzaffar Chishti, the

director of the New York office of the Migration Policy Institute, a think tank. Here's what we came up with. 1. Be a Leader During Obama's first term,

bipartisan legislation never got off the ground. The president needs to do a better job leading the charge

this time around, according to Chishti. "He has to make it clear that it's a high priority of his," he said.

"He has to make it clear that he'll use his bully pulpit and his political muscle to make it

happen, and he has to be open to using his veto power." His announcement this weekend is a step in that direction, but he needs to follow through.

PC keypresidential leaderships vital to passage

Cameron Joseph,political reporter for the Hill, Republicans warn Obama has 'poisoned'

relations with campaign-style attacks The Hill, 3/1/2013.Still, some centrist Democrats say that while Obamasapproach has so far been effective, he needs tomake sure to stick

to a tone of bipartisanship and avoid antagonizing Republicans who might otherwise work with him.He

does need to have a hands-on approach, but what does that look like? It should, particularly from a White House that's not looking down thebarrel of an election anymore, should be one that fosters cooperation and bipartisanship , said Kristen Hawn, the head of a center-left super-PAC that is also helping former Sen.

Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) and former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) push their bipartisan debt reduction plan.GOP strategist Ford OConnell, who has long called

for immigration reform, said he was worried Obamas pressure could hurt bipartisan talks .Folks inside the Beltway in both parties

don't like being shown upand when the president gallivants around the countryside saying 'this is what it is' that burns up people in Congress. It's

certainly helping him on the message side right now, but I think some people inside and outside the Beltway are tiring of this,

O'Connell said. You're talking about some very delicate issues and what people want withinCongress is a leader, not a legislative dictator. It's going to take somevery big behind the doors

action where people have to put their cards on the table and if people feel like he's going to

burn them they're not going to do it.


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PC KeyHouse

PC keynecessary to repair White House-Boehner relations

Alex Roarty, politics for the National Journal and the Atlantic There's Reason to Be Optimistic

About CongressSeriously The Atlantic, 2/21/2013The disrepair of personal relationships in Washington plays only a minor role in the absence of party

comity. But more so than other long-term factors, this is something the current players can

control. As legislators try to craft difficult bipartisan compromises, a willingness to cross party

lines, even at the risk of criticism from colleagues, is crucial. It's whyRepublican Sen. Marco Rubio's inclination to

work with Democrats on immigration reform orDemocratic Rep. Ron Wyden's collaboration with

Ryan on health care were so widely praised;such efforts attract positive attention because they are so rare.

Political enemies have worked together for the common good before. Boehner andthe late Sen.

Edward Kennedy collaborated on No Child Left Behind. And Gingrich got along famously with

Clinton, Breaux said, because the two men respected each other. "Even when he was trying to impeach

[Clinton], they were still able to overcome that and get things done," Breaux said. He added: "I think that lack of personal

relationships in the legislative body is absolutely the most harmful thing, exceeding any philosophical

differences. It can overcome stringent disagreements." Hill Democrats are openly encouraging

Obama,whom they saw as failing to reach out during his first term, to rebuild those relationships. "What kind ofcommitment from the White House will there be to work the Congress aggressively, daily and continuously?" wondered Glickman,

who is now a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center. "It can be painful to do that, because presidents don't like that part of the

job. I'm not sure this president likes it either."

PC keyimmigration arm twisting of GOP is needed

Earl Hutchinson, Political Analyst for New America and host of the Hutchinson Report, No

Risk for President Obama in Immigration Reform Fight Huffington Post, 2/1/2013.But Obamaeven as his popularity numbers slightly fell among Latinos did not totally ignore the issue. He lashed the GOPfor torpedoingcomprehensive immigrationreform legislation in Congress onthe two occasionswhen itappeared that an immigration bill might be reintroduced.Obama was not to blame that this didn't happen.

Thecrushing

problems and bruising fights over deficit reduction, spending, health carereform, coupled with high soaring

gas prices and the jobless crisis were endless and time consuming. The fights required every bit of his

political capital and arm twisting to make any headway against an obstructionist, intransigent

and petty GOP determined to make him pay a steep political price for every inch of legislative

groundhe sought to gain.The 2012 election changed only one thing with the GOP. That was its in your face, xenophobic rants against illegals supposedly stealing jobsfrom Americans and breaking the law. GOP leaders had no choice but to tamp down their saber rattle immigration rhetoric for the simple fact that Latino voters punished the

party mightily in 2012 for that rhetoric, and sent an even stronger signal that it would continue to punish the GOP if it didn't change at least its tone on immigration. The

2012 electionchanged one other thing. It gave Obama thelong sought and awaited openinghe needed to go full

throttle on immigrationreform. The election result was not the only strong point for Obama on reform. In 2007, then

President George W. Bush waswidely and unfairly blamed formaking a mess of the immigration reform fight in Congress by

not pushing hard enoughfor passage of the bill. Immigrant rights groups lambasted Republican senators for piling crippling demands for tight amnesty,citizenship and border security provisions in the bill. Leading Republican presidential contenders didn't help matters by flatly opposing the bill as much too soft on amnesty and

border enforcement. This did much to kill whatever flickering hope there was for the bill's passage. This undid the inroads that Bush made in the 2000 and 2004 presidentialelections when he scored big with Latino voters. A big part of that then was due to the perception (and reality) that Bush would push hard for immigration reform. But the GOP

didn't learn a thing from this. It was almost as if Bush's Latino vote ramp up was an aberration. The GOP's metallic ear on immigration culminated in the idiotic quip from GOP

presidential loser Mitt Romney that the best way to solve the immigration crisis was for undocumented workers to "self-deport." Obama's battle for the Latino vote in 2012

was never intended to head off any mass defection of Latino voters to the GOP. There was never any chance of that. The polls that showed Latinos less than enthusiastic about

Obama also showed absolutely no enthusiasm for any GOP would-be presidential candidate, let alone that there would be a massive vote for GOP candidates. Still,

Obama'sfrontal challenge to the GOPto do something about immigrationreform is not only a long overdue

move to right a long simmering policy wrong, but a move that if handled right can do much to shove thewrenching

issueof what to do about the nation's millions that are here without papers, and are here to stay, off thenation's political

table. There's absolutely no risk, only gain, for Obama in taking the point on immigration reform to try and make that happen.


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PC Finite

PC finitewins dont spill over so prioritization is key

David Schultz,Prof at the Hamline Univ School of Business. Obamas Dwindling Prospects in a

second term The Minneapolis Post, 1/22/2013Four more years for Obama. Now what? What doesBarack Obama do in his second term and whatcan he accomplish?Simply put, his options are limited and the prospects for major success quite limited.

Presidential power is the power to persuade , as Richard Neustadt famously stated. Many factors

determine presidential power and the ability to influenceincluding personality (as James DavidBarber argued), attitude toward power, margin of victory, public support, support in Congress, and ones sense of narrative or

purpose. Additionally, presidential power is temporal , often greatest when one is first

elected , and it is contextual, affected by competing items on an agenda.All of these

factors affect the politicalpower or capital of a president. Presidential power also is a

finite and generally decreasing product. The first hundred days in officeso marked forever by

FDRs first 100 in 1933 are usually a honeymoon period,during which presidents often getwhat they want.FDR gets the first New Deal, Ronald Reagan gets Kemp-Roth, George Bush in 2001 gets his tax cuts.Presidents lose political capital, supportBut, over time, presidents lose political capital. Presidentsget distractedby world and domestic events, they lose support in Congressor among the American public, orthey turn into lame ducks. This is the problem Obama now faces.Obama had a lot of politicalcapitalwhen sworn in as president in 2009. He won a decisive victoryfor change with strong approval ratingsand had majorities in Congress with eventually a filibuster margin in the Senate, when Al Franken finally took office in July.

Obama used his political capital to secure a stimulus bill and then pass the Affordable Care Act. He eventually got rid of Dont Ask,

Dont Tell and secured many other victories. But Obama was a lousy salesman, and he lost what littlecontrol of Congressthat he had in the 2010 elections.

PC finiteguides presidential thinking

Bryan Marshall et al, Miami University Center for Public Policy, Power or Posturing? PolicyAvailability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force ,

Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 September 2011.We argue that the more important effect of Congress occurs because presidents anticipate how the use of force

may affect the larger congressional environment in which they inevitably have to operate

(Brul, Marshall, and Prins 2010). It may be true that presidents consider the chances that Congress will react

to a specific use of force with countervailing tools, but even more importantly they anticipate the

likelihood that a foreign conflict may damage(or advantage) their political fortunes elsewherein

essence, the presidential calculus to use force factors in how such actions might shape their

ability to achieve legislative priorities. To be clear, presidents can and do choose to use force and press for legislativeinitiatives in Congress. Taking unilateral actions in foreign policy does not preclude the president from working the legislative

process on Capitol Hill. However, political capital is finite so spending resources in one area lessens

what the president can bring to bear in other areas.That is, presidents consider the congressional environmentin their decision to use force because their success at promoting policy change in either foreign or domestic affairs is largely

determined by their relationship with Congress. Presidents do not make such decisions devoid of

calculations regarding congressional preferences and behavior or how such decisions may

influence their ability to achieve legislative objectives.This is true in large part because presidential

behavior is motivated by multiple goals that are intimately tied to Congress. Presidents place a premiumon passing legislative initiatives. The passage of policy is integral to their goals of reelection and enhancing their place in history

(Canes-Wrone 2001; Moe 1985). Therefore, presidents seek to build and protect their relationship with Congress.


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PC Theory True

PC theory truebest studies prove

Harold C. Relyea, Specialist in American National Government with the Congressional.

Research Service, Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004By Matthew N. Beckmann, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Volume 41, Issue 4, 2011.Matthew Beckmann of the University of California at Irvine provides an interesting empirical analysis of presidential leadership in

lawmaking for the period from the Eisenhower through the Bush II administrations. He notesthat the key to a president's legislative leadership is strategy, not resolve(p. 2), and concludesthat the greatest source of influence for postwar presidents comes in the legislativeearly game, not the legislative endgame (p. 2). Presidents who are strategically adeptwork to get specific issues on the congressional calendar and, then, maneuver to insurethat certain proposals rise up as alternatives. Beckmann suggests that the best route forconstructing winning coalitions consists of mobilizing leading allies, determiningopponents, and circumventing endgame floor fights altogether, rather than thetypical path of gathering support from centrist lawmakers(p. 2). In the end, he finds that

presidents' legislative influence is real, often substantial, and, to date, greatlyunderestimated (p. 3). The author's assessment is organized into six chapters. Chapter 1 consists of his introductoryoverview, as briefly summarized above. Chapter 2 presents a theory of positive presidential power, focusing on the Bush II

administration's 2001 tax cut efforts in the Senate. Here, Beckmann attributes the White House's successto its targeted strategy of lobbying and bargaining with allies, key opponents, andswing voters. He cautions that although this is only one example, it represents what a president's aides can achieve whenthey maximize lobbying techniques for the purpose of advancing agenda-centered and vote-centered strategies (p. 104). Reviewing

the 1953-2004 record of what he considers to be key votes for presidential legislative success in Chapter 4, the author proposes a

new method for evaluating the potential impact of presidents on these votes. The two most significant elements are (1) personal

involvement of the president and (2) the extent of his influence at the earliest stages in the legislative process, at the point of

fashioning legislation (p. 126). In Chapter 5, after testing whether presidents' influence held upevenafter accounting for a myriad of rival explanations, including congressionalcomposition, political context, and issue specifics, as well as simple random chance (p.

148), Beckmann asserts that the evidence showed presidents to be powerful, but not allpowerful, players in federal policymaking. When the president decides that someparticular policy initiative deserves his administration's backing, it is a great boon tothe chances that a new law will supplant the old one. Yet also as predicted, this potential isconstrained by Congress' pivotal voters, limited by political environment, andvariable by issue. Furthermore, although the president's involvement greatly increases thelikelihood that a winning congressional coalition will be assembled, it is noguarantee. Indeed, the nature of presidential leadership in lawmaking is that, while itgenerally helps win key votes and pass preferred laws, it may not in any particularcase. (p. 149) In closing, the author observes that integral to appraising any president's legacy is examining how effectively h erecognizes and capitalizes on his office's potential but that equally as important as any policy outcome is the value of healthy,

substantive debate in Congress, as well as the related one of pressuring members to clearly explain their positions on issues (p.161).


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Obama = Blame

Obamas Velcroonly blame will stick

Peter Nicholas andJanet Hook, Tribune Washington Bureau, Obama the Velcro president,

July 30, 2010. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730

If Ronald Reagan was the classic Teflon president, Barack Obama is made of Velcro. Through two

terms, Reagan eluded much of the responsibility for recession and foreign policy scandal. In less

than two years, Obama has become ensnared in blame. Hoping to better insulate Obama, White

House aides have sought to give other Cabinet officials a higher profile and additional public

exposure. They are also crafting new ways to explain the president's policies to a skeptical

public. But Obama remains the colossus of his administration to a point where trouble

anywhere in the world is often his to solve. The president is on the hook to repair the Gulf Coast

oil spill disaster, stabilize Afghanistan, help fix Greece's ailing economy and do right by Shirley

Sherrod, the Agriculture Department official fired as a result of a misleading fragment of

videotape. What's not sticking to Obama is a legislative track record that his recent predecessorsmight envy. Political dividends from passage of a healthcare overhaul or a financial regulatory

bill have been fleeting. Instead, voters are measuring his presidency by a more immediate

yardstick: Is he creating enough jobs? So far the verdict is no, and that has taken a toll on

Obama's approval ratings. Only 46% approve of Obama's job performance, compared with 47%

who disapprove, according to Gallup's daily tracking poll. "I think the accomplishments are very

significant, but I think most people would look at this and say, 'What was the plan for jobs?' "

said Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.). "The agenda he's pushed here has been a very important

agenda, but it hasn't translated into dinner table conversations."
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730


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**Impacts


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2NC Relations ImpactSouth Asia War

US/India relations averts South Asian nuclear war

Schaffer, Spring 2002(TeresitaDirector of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and InternationalSecurity, Washington Quarterly, p. Lexis)

Washington's increased interest in Indiasince the late 1990s reflects India's economic expansion

and position as Asia's newest rising power. New Delhi, for its part, is adjusting to the end of the Cold War. As a

result, both giant democracies see that they can benefit by closer cooperation . For

Washington, the advantages include a wider network of friends in Asiaat a time when the region is

changing rapidly, as well as a stronger position from which to help calm possible future nuclear

tensions in the region . Enhanced tradeand investment benefit both countries and are a

prerequisite for improved U.S. relations with India . For India, the country's ambition to assume a stronger

leadership role in the world and to maintain an economy that lifts its people out of poverty depends critically on good relations with

the United States.


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Ext. India Relations IL

CIR key to relationsvisa policy is dragging down alliance now

Zee News, Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,

New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, isexpected to come up for discussion whenExternal Affairs Minister SM Krishna meetsUS Secretaryof State Hillary Clintonhere on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has"consistently" taken up the issue of the visa fee hike with the USand the issue will figure in talksbetween Krishna and Clinton, official sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010to fund its enhancedcosts on securing border with Mexico under the Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro

and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World

Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that young Indian professionals working in theUS have been the "cornerstone" of India-US relations and are a pillar in the improvedbilateral relationsthat has brought the two countries closer. Hiking visa fees or limiting the

number of work visas availableto Indian companies is tantamount to "undermining that pillar

and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and putting other

barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral ties,"thesources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in India

in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa

issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly

today. part of the world are essentialto the peace and prosperity of the world.

CIR key to relationsmost important issue

Economic TimesIndia to ask US for more H-1B visas, October 19, 2009India is likely to ask the United States to raise the cap on visas for skilled workersat thebilateral trade forum meeting to be held in New Delhi later this month, a government official told ET. India may also push for a

special mechanism for Indian professionals travelling to the US for short-term assignments arising out of contractual

obligations.The issue of a more liberal and simple US visa regime for professionals willbe high on Indias agendaat the bilateral meeting to be chaired by Indian commerce minister Anand Sharma and

the US trade representative Ron Kirk, the official said. H-1B visas, which are non-immigrant US visas for skilled professionals,given for up to six years, are highly popular with Indian IT companies such as Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Satyam, which usually

corner a big chunk of such visas issued by the US. The subsidiaries of these companies in the US usually employ H-1B visa

professionals to deliver services at customers location. The number of world-wide H-1B visas issued toprofessionals was reduced by more than half to 65,000 per yearabout two years back. Thishas affected the functioning of Indian companies in the US,especially ones in the IT sector, theofficial said. He added that India was keen on taking up with the new US government the issueof a possible increase in the cap on such visas. Although, this year, the entire quota of 65,000 H-1B visashas not yet been utilised because of the on-going global economic slow down, the official pointed out that it was a temporary

phase and the demand for US work visas would soar the moment the global economy began to look up.

CIR key to relationsvisa restrictions destroy US-India cooperation.

M.D. Nalapat, Professor of GeopoliticsManipal University, Vice ChairManipal Advanced

Research Group, and Peace ChairUNESCO, Outside View: Obama and India, UPI, 1-16-2010Today, thanks to Hillary Clinton, these irritants are back. Indian scientists, including people such asGoverdhan Mehta who is a member of the U.S. Academy of Sciences, areonce again being denied visas to enterthe United States. Those working in aerospace, physics and chemistry find it next toimpossible to visit the United States even to attend a conference. This has createdanger among India's scientists, who are now dismissive of Singh's claim that there hasbeen a qualitative improvement in U.S.-India high-tech cooperation. Of course, a few cosmeticmeasures have been permitted by Clinton and Obama, such as the sending of a small NASA payload aboard India's recent

mission to the moon.


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**Affirmative Answers


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2AC Wont Pass

Wont pass

A. GOP will link it to health carekills the deal

David Nakamura, Lead Political Analyst for the Wash Post. Republicans trying to use health-

care law to derail Obamas immigration reform efforts The Washington Post, 6/17/13Afterspending years unsuccessfully trying to overturn Obamacare, Republicans are now

attempting to usePresident Obamas landmark health-care law to derailhis top second-term

initiative a sweeping overhaul of the nations immigrationsystem. Conservatives in both

chambers of Congress are insisting on measures that would expand the denial of public health

benefits to the nations 11 million illegal immigrants beyond limits set in a comprehensive bill

pending in the Senate. In the House, Republicans are considering proposals that would deny

publicly subsidized emergency care to illegal immigrants and force them to purchase private

health insurance plans, without access to federal subsidies, as a requirement for earning

permanent legal residency. In the Senate, Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has endorsed an amendment to

a comprehensive immigration bill he helped negotiate that would deny health benefits to

immigrants for five years after they become legal residents two years after they would be

eligible to become citizens under the legislation. Some Republicans, eager to capitalize on

public uncertainty aboutthe complexities of the Affordable Care Act, are casting the

immigration legislation as a similarly unwieldy law. The immigration bill reminds me of a

more recent piece of legislation: Obamacare,Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said on the Senate floor

last week. It grants broad new powers to the same executive branch that today is mired in

scandal for incompetence and abuse of power. Total cost estimates are in the trillions. And

rather than fix our current immigration problems, the bill makes many of them worse. The

insertion of the politics of health-care reform one of the most polarizing issues in

Washington into the immigration debate threatens to split open the emerging bipartisan

coalitions that are crucial to passing a bill.

B. Wont get through the House

Jeremy Birnbaum, Politics for the Washington Times. Sensational Season for Scandal: When a

Ship Runs Aground, its the Captains Fault The Washington Times, 6/12/13Whats left among major initiatives is immigration reform . However, that faces a tough slog in

the Senate and apossibly impossible trajectory in the House of Representatives. Its leading Republican

sponsor, Sen. Marco Rubioof Florida, has already signaled that he might bail on the plan he helped craft if

changesincluding guaranteed bolstering of border security arent addedas the bill moves through the Senate.


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Ext. Wont Pass the House

PC cant get immigration through the Housethe Obama-Boehner relationship

is beyond repair

Alex Roarty, politics for the National Journal and the Atlantic There's Reason to Be OptimisticAbout CongressSeriously The Atlantic, 2/21/2013Maintaining that momentum in the House won't be easy, andit could require Obama's personal

leadership. Getting Boehner to take such a perilous route could depend in large part on

successful cajoling from the president. And on this subject-- the relationships among Washington's top

leaders -- discussion of a deal being cut becomes sharply pessimistic. The two men's

relationshipis described as personally friendly, but professionally it has produced nothing but

dysfunction.What began with the debt-limit negotiations of 2011 culminated in last year's failed fiscal-cliff talks. Boehner

has vowed never to negotiate with Obama one-on-oneagain.Washington has had a litany of successfulspeaker-president relationships through the years. Think Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton -- or Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill in the

1980s. But Obama and Boehner haven't been able to find a workable formula. "There is zero

trust between Boehner and the president,and trust is what's necessary to get deals done," said

Mike Hacker, a former Democratic leadership aide. "It's not just mutual interest."The belief among the GOP that the

president won't act on good faith in the current negotiations is further straining the broken

relationshipbetween the two men. Rather than trying to cut a deal with Republicans, Obama might

work only toward defeating them in next year's midterms, to try to re-take the House. At thatpoint, assuming his party retains the Senate, congressional Democrats would be poised to pass legislation as they did during

Obama's first two years in office. "In the matrix they're crafting to take back the House, there's no

function for bipartisanship,"said Mike Ference, a former aide to Cantor.Obama's recent actions haven't

put GOP worries to rest.His inaugural speech was long on urging the country to adopt a progressive agenda but short on

emphasizing the need for compromise. After completely ignoring House Democrats in 2012, the president

announced plans to hold eight fundraisers for them this cycle. Obama, in the eyes of the GOP, seems

less interested in working with Republicans than in rolling over them. The atrophying of

strong relationships on Capitol Hill is only one of many reasons polarization is so entrenched.Certainly the proliferation of powerful political organizations, such as the free-market Club for Growth, and the influence of partisan

media have also played a role. In the bigger picture, the decades-long popular sorting out between the

parties and their ideology has probably mattered most: Conservative Southern Democrats and

liberal Northeastern Republicans are now nearly extinct. But another suggested cause of increased

polarization, gerrymandered districts, remains hotly disputed in the political-science community.

Research shows that members' voting behavior changes only slightly, if at all, with the partisan

makeup of their district; lawmakers support whatever their party decides,according to this argument.


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2AC PC

Capital isnt key to immigration reform

Michael Hirsh,chief correspondent for National Journal Theres No Such Thing as Political

Capital, National Journal, 2/7/2013Meanwhile, the Republican members of the Senates so-called Gang of Eight are pushing hard for

a new spirit of compromise on immigration reform, a sharp change after an election year in which the GOPstandard-bearer declared he would make life so miserable for the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. that they would self -

deport. But this turnaround has very little to do with Obamaspersonal influence his political

mandate, as it were. It has almost entirely to do withjust two numbers: 71 and 27. Thats 71

percent for Obama, 27 percent for Mitt Romney, the breakdown of the Hispanic vote in the

2012 presidential election. Obama drove home his advantage by giving a speech on immigration reform on Jan. 29 at a

Hispanic-dominated high school in Nevada, a swing state he won by a surprising 8 percentage points in November. But the

movement on immigration has

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Politics Disadvantage - Wyoming 2013