Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Politics and the Electoral System. The Story of an Election. Labour Party leader Tony Blair transfers party leadership to Gordon Brown at a Labour Party conference in July 2007. Brown becomes Prime Minister (PM) without having stood for new election as the leader of his party. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Politics and the Electoral System
The Story of an Election Labour Party leader Tony Blair
transfers party leadership to Gordon Brown at a Labour Party conference in July 2007.
Brown becomes Prime Minister (PM) without having stood for new election as the leader of his party. This is normal. Party leaders are selected within the
political party itself. A party leader becomes PM because his
party is the majority party in parliament. Labour has the majority in Parliament in
2007, and Gordon Brown becomes PM. Brown’s prime-minister-ship is
formalized by the Queen
The Story of an Election
On April 6, 2010, Brown calls a new parliamentary election for May 6, 2010
The campaign lasts only one month.
The Story of an Election All Members of Parliament (MPs)
stand for election only in their own constituencies (districts). David Cameron (leader of the
Conservative Party) stands for election only in Whitney in Oxfordshire
Gordon Brown (leader of the Labour Party) stands for election only in Kirkcaldy-Caldenbeath in Fife.
Big-name politicians—like Cameron and Brown—also campaign in colleagues’ constituencies to boost their parties’ fortunes.
Whichever party can form a majority in parliament will put forward the next prime minister. Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy
David Cameron in Whitney
5
Effect of Electoral Institutions
How does the electoral system work? Single-member-district electoral system First-past-the-post
(also called “winner-take-all”)
6
Effect of Electoral Institutions
Hypothetical 34% Labour33% Conservative33% Liberal-Democrat
Single-member/First-past-the-post Labour wins all parliamentary seats Parties w/ combined backing of 2/3’s of electorate win no seats at all
Multi-member/Proporational Representation Would be a three-party system w/ roughly equal representation
Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2010 Election
29
36.1
23
11.9
39.7
47.1
8.84.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Labour Conservative Liberal-Democratic Other
%
Votes
Seats
8
35
55
3231
22
10 10
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
Labour Conservative Liberal Democratic Other
Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2005 Election
Votes
Seats
9
41
63
32
25
18
8 9
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
Labour Conservative Liberal Democratic Other
Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2001 Election
Votes
Seats
British Popular Vote by Party, 1945-2010
Look at declines in Labour (red line) popularity. Why?
12
Labour Party increasingly out of touch in 1970s & 1980s
Shift from manufacturing to services Fewer “blue collar” jobs Fewer union members
identify with “Old Labour” Less union membership
among “white collar” workers lower
Hurt “Old Labour”
13
Effect of Electoral Institutions on Political Outcomes If Labour was so out-of-touch for 2 decades, why
wasn’t it replaced by a third party? Not for lack of trying by 3rd Parties
Social Democratic Party (1981) Liberal Democrats (since 1988)
But remember “disproportionality” And Labour finally adapts to “post-industrial”
society
14
Tony Blair “reinvents” Labour Party
Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback
Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback until 2010
The Story of an Election Labour loses
29% of vote down from 35%
Gordon Brown un-popular Conservatives gain
36% up from 32% But lack a majority of seats
(47%) Liberal-Democrats about
same (22-23%) Join Conservatives in
coalition government!
Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2010 Election
29
36.1
23
11.9
39.7
47.1
8.84.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Labour Conservative Liberal-Democratic Other
%
Votes
Seats
2010 Election: Conservative Party improves, but fails to win out-right majority—very unusual outcome
Why would Lib-Dems want PR?
Liberal Democrats pushed for 2011 Referendum on Electoral Reform Compromise
Not proportional representation (PR)
Alternate Vote (AV) also known as “instant run-off” voting
Lib-Dems get referendum on AV not PR! Mr Clegg said: "AV is a baby step in the
right direction – only because nothing can be worse than the status quo.
“If we want to change British politics once and for all, we have got to have a quite simple system in which everyone's votes count.”
Simulated outcome of proposed “AV” voting based on 2010 survey data
