Comparative Politics Chapter 2: Research and WritingPolitical Science 102May 18th 2015

Introduction• Theories and hypotheses

• Evidence

• Correlation and Causal Relationships

• Doing comparative research

• Your Term Paper

• Doing Research at Columbia College

• Group Work: Identifying Sources and Doing Citations

Theories• What is a theory?

• Definition: An explanation about how the world operates.

• Kinds of theory:• Normative theory• Values or morals

• Empirical theory• Cause and effect

Hypotheses• What is a hypothesis?

• Definition: Proposed explanation as to why an outcome occurs• (your book provides a second definition: A specific prediction

derived from a theory that can be tested against empirical evidence)

• Deductive vs Inductive reasoning• Top down• Bottom up• Deviant cases

• What is a thesis?

Where do Theories Come From?

• Develop a hypothesis about an issue or an event• Identify evidence to test hypothesis

• Hypotheses that survive initial testing are usually further challenged (extreme peer review)• These challenges are, in turn tested, or further test the

initial hypothesis

• As more evidence is collected to support a hypothesis, or hypothesis is refined to reflect evidence, a theory emerges

• Theories are almost never expressly proven – they’re the best explanation for an issue at hand given the evidence available.

• This also means that theories can be wrong and, in time, disproven• Exceptions to the rule

Types of Evidence• Qualitative evidence• Evidence that seeks to understand relationships through

narrative or written accounts of events (labour intensive, usually a small number of cases)

• Quantitative evidence• Using mathematical models to discern relationships

between variables (typically large number of cases)

• The nature of data, generally, means that comparativists consider past events, rather than predict future outcomes – though, there are many exceptions to this

Correlation and Causation

• What is correlation? Causation?

• Correlations can be positive relationships or negative relationships

• Complicated relationship between correlation and causation (one that the public often seems to confuse the public)

Why Correlation Does Not Always Equal Causation

• The definitional of falsifiability problem• Measuring the same thing by a different name, or by

definition one thing is the same as the other

• Reverse causality

• Endogeneity problem• Circular arguments

• Intervening variables

More Reasons that Correlation isn’t Causation

• Omitted variable problem• Hidden variables that impact the variables being studied

• Spurious correlation problem• Random correlation (superstition in sports)

Critiquing Theories and Evidence

• Critiques are not only ‘criticisms’, but they can also be useful observations that challenge orthodoxy

• An empirical critique• An evidence based criticism• Deviant cases• Identify short-comings in arguments and where they need

work

• A theoretical critique• Logical inconsistencies within a theory• Alternative theory development

Challenges to Measurement in Social (and Political) Science

• Finding appropriate indicators

• Measurement error• Mistakes in recording evidence• Failure to effectively measure that which is supposed to be

measured

• Measurement bias• Purposeful (or accidental) evidence collection designed to

prove preferred hypothesis (rather than test it)

• Measurement validity• How does one measure something like health outcomes?

Good Arguments and Analysis: For the Researcher, or How to Write Your Research

Paper!

• Asking good research questions

• What makes for a good question?• Answerable using evidence• Interesting• Answerable given the time and resources available• Examines causal relationships

Good Arguments and Analysis: For the Researcher, or How to Write Your Research

Paper! Cont…

• Creating and testing hypotheses

• Definitional consistency

• Grounded in a theory (we’ll cover a few of them during the course of term)

• Sometimes may need to draw from theories and evidence elsewhere

• Keep an open mind!

Good Arguments and Analysis: For the Researcher, or How to Write Your Research

Paper! Cont more…

• Arguments shouldn’t be trivial• For instance, it’s evident that fascism typically leads to human

rights abuses – stay away from very obvious arguments

• DO NOT COPY OTHER PEOPLE’S WORK!• I can read other people’s work anytime I want – I can only read

your thoughts and your work in this class….please let me do so

• This doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t use previous work as evidence or a theoretical base• The best research builds on existing research

• This is about building reasonable arguments with evidence

Good Arguments and Analysis: For the Researcher, or How to Write Your Research

Paper! Last one!

• Where there is more than one important causal variable, prioritize them – which one’s are most important

• Use lots of sources• Emulate (DO NOT COPY) the best work you can find

• When writing your paper: refer back to pg 43 of your book and review the guidelines for comparative research!