U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

MEMORANDUM

TO: Mr. Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

FROM: Tyler McDonald, Desk Officer – Cote d’Ivoire

DATE: February 20, 2013

SUBJECT: 2013 Prospective on Cote d’Ivoire

Background:

Cote d’Ivoire, a former French colony, had one of the most developed and promising economies

in West Africa up until 1999, when a coup overthrew the democratically elected government.

Later subsequent failed elections led to the break out of a civil war which divided the nation in

two sides in 2002. This culminated into a disputed transfer of power in 2011 when former

President Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power after his election loss causing violent clashes

between supporters of both sides. Thiscrisis has left the country vulnerable as it attempts to

reconcile the divided nation, reform the security sector and repair the economy. U.S. - Ivoirian

relations have traditionally beenfriendly. The United States currently provides more than a

quarter of the funding for UNCOI (United Nations Operation in Cote d’Ivoire).

U.S. Strategic Interests:

Global Governance:

The top priority in Africa is promoting good governance and democracy. It is important for the

U.S. to support the democratically elected administration in support of the broader goals in the

continent. A stable and democratic Cote d’Ivoire is imperative to this mission. The instability

and disputed transition of power sets a negativeprecedent for other African countries, who are

having elections and are attempting to transition and/or solidifyinto democracies. Similar

refusals to give up power were seen in Benin and Uganda shortly after this conflict.

Stability in the Region:

Cote d’Ivoire is in the heart of West Africa and borders five countries: Ghana, Burkina Faso,

Guinea, Liberia and Mali. The recent crisis in Mali adds to the U.S. strategic importance on this

sub-region with the heightened prospect of terrorism and extremism, in particularly the AQIM

linked groups in Mali and Boko Haram in Nigeria. Further instability in Cote d’Ivoire could

potentially trigger similar problems throughout other West African states. Some of which have

already experienced serve crises in recent years making them more susceptible.

Economic Relations:

Economic recovery will help stabilize and further develop the country. Cote d’Ivoire is eligible

for preferential trade with the African Growth and Opportunity Act. The U.S. exports steel,

machinery, plastics and agricultural products among others. The U.S. imports include cocoa,

rubber, wood, cashews and oil. Our current trade deficit is $1.1 billion dollars.U.S. firms have

made significant investments in oil and gas projects, banking, cocoa and international courier

services.

Key issues in 2013

National Divisions:

Nationality and identity are the core cause of the internal crisis that has plagued Cote d’Ivoire

since 2001. The country has long benefited from the steady inflow of immigrants from other

West African states who have added to the agricultural sector, which dominates the economy.

The north of the country has a majority Muslim and immigrant population and remains largely

underdeveloped. The south is prominently Christian and is far more developed. Out of the

twenty-two million people living in Cote d’Ivoire an estimated eight million are immigrants,

generally from other West African states. These immigrants, and the descendants of immigrants,

do not receive recognition as citizens and remain without a path to citizenship. This has led to a

conflict over national identity and what it means to be Ivoirian. Political tensions have risen in

the country as nearly twenty percent of the population goes without representation and limited

rights. This national divide could potentially reignite as former President Gbagbo stands trial at

the International Criminal Court this month for crimes against Humanity. Several hundred

supporters have already taken to the streets in protest last week. While there has been a

significant amount of progresson charging individualsfrom Gbagbo’s camp, Ivorian authorities

have not arrested or charged any members of the pro-Ouattara rebel forces who also

committed grave crimes during the crisis.

Legitimacy:

There is also a concern over the perceived legitimacy of President Ouattara. Tensions still

remain from the violent and delayed transfer of power. President Ouattara, while democratically

elected, had to take his seat by force through rebels who supported him. There is also tension

stemming from the intervention of U.N. and French troops who monitored the ceasefire. This has

complicated Ouattara’s legitimacy as opponents perceive his accession to the presidency as a

tribute of force and support by the former colonizer, France. The current administration must

combat these tensions in hopes to avoid further conflicts.

Border Security:

There have been several attacks along the borders since the 2010 elections. In June 2012 an

attack on the Liberian border resulted in the death of seven UN peacekeepers and twenty-seven

civilians. In September 2012 there was an attack on the Ghanaian border which resulted in eight

deaths and caused a closure of the border with Ghana. The recent events in Mali heighten the

threat of conflict and terrorism in the region as well as bringing in many refugees from the crisis.

Several conflicts with mercenaries on the Liberian border have added to the chaos.This cross-

border violence poses a threat, furthering political tensions and insecurity throughout the

country. There have been several attacks on tankers offof the coast of Cote d’Ivoire, the most

recent of which occurred early February 2013 when a French tanker was hijacked.

Security Sector Reform:

The security situation remains unstable. There have been several attacks on army and police

bases and on border posts around Cote d’Ivoire. The root of this issue is political as the current

administration does not trust the current police force, which was trained largely under the

previous regime. This has led to a disarming of the police force and a reliance on armed soldiers

for security. The army has been poorly integrated with thousands of rebels that supported the

current administration pushed into the regular army.

Economic Recovery:

The economy is still recovering from the conflict which interrupted its steady growth. Most

infrastructure has been repaired which has allowed the farmers and businesses to continue

exporting without needing to go through neighboring countries. This is promising for the

normalization of trade relations. However, the instability in the country has led to a severe

increase in food prices. Cote d’Ivoire remains the world’s largest exporter of cocoa as

international prices have risen to the highest prices in over three decades. The increase in cocoa

prices along with a tripiling in local food prices has severely hindered Ivoirians ability to feed

themselves and families. This raises concerns for potential famine and food riots.