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Canada’s New Immigration
Policies:
Fixing the Problems
or Creating New Ones?
The Big Picture: Permanent Residents
6A Frontenac A
Canadian Bar Association
April 2009
Naomi Alboim
2
Overview of presentation
Recent policy changes
Context
Options for intervention
Challenges of new directions
Recommendations
3
Recent policy changes Increased focus on short term labour market needs
Facilitated entry of temporary workers to respond to labour shortages
Introduction of Canadian Experience Class to allow international students and temporary workers to transition to permanent status
Greater role of provinces, employers and educational institutions
Increased Ministerial discretion to expedite processing of immigration applications
All potentially positive implications if balanced approach
4
However… Increased focus on short term labour market needs at expense of
longer term demographic and economic needs– Increased numbers of temporary workers, many vulnerable at
low end, at expense of permanent residents (100% increase in stock since 2004)
– Ministerial Instructions limits skilled worker selection to 38 “current” demand occupations
Introduction of Canadian Experience Class (two step immigration) within existing target numbers at expense of overseas applicants in inventory and only for high end
Greater role of provinces, employers and educational institutions in selection and settlement without a national framework
Increased Ministerial discretion with no constraints, removing transparency and predictability
All potentially serious negative implications
5
The cumulative impact of the changes is a fundamental shift in Canadian immigration policy in the absence of evaluation or public debate.
6
Canadian context
Immigration as means to end: one tool in kit
Economic objectives paramount: short term/long term
Population realities: net growth dependent on immigration
Labour market realities: labour and skill shortages
International competition for skilled workers
Immigration to build nation, community and labour force
Selecting citizens, not just workers
Need to think beyond economic downturn
7
Who’s coming? Number of permanent residents in 2008 below 2005 despite huge
inventory and labour/demographic needs
All categories (family, humanitarian) except economic declined
Skilled workers used to represent 50% of all immigrants to Canada; in 2008 down to 42%
Within economic class, Provincial Nominees and Live-in Caregivers had biggest increases
Only 17.5% of immigrants assessed on skilled worker points system (Skilled Worker Principal Applicants)
Ministerial discretion to determine priorities within and between economic and family classes
8
…Who’s coming?
Almost 71% from Asia/Pacific and Africa/Middle East
More educated than Canadian born (92% of SWPA have some Post Secondary Education)
Largest group 25-44 years of age, but fewer 0-14, and increased numbers of 45-64 and 65+
67% have some official language capacity (SWPA 89%)
9
How are recent immigrants (all
classes) doing? Worse than previous cohorts, longer to catch
up
More unemployed than Canadian born, but most working
More underemployed than Canadian born
More in part time/part year employment than Canadian born
More in low paying jobs than Canadian born
More in low income than previous cohorts
More than twice the incidence of low income relative to Canadian born
10
Possible causes
Changing characteristics of immigrants (language, culture, education, country)
Discounting of credentials and experience
Increased competition with educated Canadian born and other “new entrants”
Discrimination
Business cycle “scarring”, economic restructuring
Lack of alignment between selection criteria and labour market needs
Different possible policy interventions for each
11
Preliminary research findings
Some classes do better than others
– Skilled Worker Principal Applicants do better than other classes. Human capital matters *
– After SWPAs, refugees do better than other economic categories. Services matter *
– Family class members do better than other economic categories, particularly in their first year. Social capital matters *
Language and communications matter most
12
…Preliminary Research Findings
Refugees and Family Class members stay in Canada more than Economic Class
If low income avoided in first year, likelihood only 10% or less in subsequent years
34-41% exited low income after one year; approx one third still in low income after 3 years (two thirds not in low income)
Services can shape economic integration: early interventions, language, social networks, Canadian top-ups (education and work experience) reverse discounting
13
Options for Intervention
Focus on the immigrant– Levels/mix/source countries
– Selection criteria (language, age, education, credentials, occupation)
Focus on programs and services– Bridge gap faced by immigrant before and after
arrival
– Information, qualification assessment, language and bridge training, mentorships, work experience programs, loans
14
Focus on systems and attitudes of host society and institutions– Regulatory bodies, employers, schools,
universities, community colleges, community agencies
– Bridge gap faced by the institutions: awareness/recognition of skills, cross-cultural/anti-racism training, supports, incentives, legislation, funding formulas
– Multi-stakeholder collaboration
– Inter and intra-governmental collaboration
15
Federal Government Response
Invested in programs and some system changes
Have not evaluated impact of programs
Have just begun to evaluate skilled worker program under IRPA
Have not reviewed SWPA selection criteria
Introduced recent policy changes
– Focus almost exclusively on short term labour market needs (Ministerial instructions and temporary workers)
– Reduce skilled worker permanent admissions in favour of provincial nominees and temporary entrants
– Move towards two step immigration process (Canadian Experience Class)
– Devolve responsibilities to provinces, educational institutions, and employers
Challenges of New Directions
17
Ministerial Instructions
38 occupations identified, all others returned
Puts onus on provinces to select others
Some occupations already outdated: pre IRPA problems relived
Some will not meet points system
Some occupations will still face licensing barriers
Raising immigrant expectations if on list, turning off future applicants if not
Effectively shutting down new skilled worker selection
18
Temporary Foreign Workers
(employers) Numbers increasing
– 193,061 entries in 2008 (increase of 71.2% since 2004)
– Newfoundland, Alberta, BC, and Territories received more TFWs than immigrants in 2007 and 2008
Employer driven
– No caps or targets tabled in Parliament
– Priority processing, new offices, reduced employer requirements to get approval, 2 year work permits
– Employers using TFWs to fill permanent vacancies more quickly than with Skilled Workers
– Increasing use of TFWs to fill low-skilled and unskilled jobs
Many concerns re vulnerability, impact on domestic workers and skilled worker applicants, longer term implications
19
Provincial Nominee Programs
(provinces) Federal-Provincial Agreements in absence of
national framework
Patchwork of criteria, costs, processes, devolving costs to provinces
Complexity reduces transparency, adds confusion to immigrants and visa officers
No FSW point system requirement
Respond to regional needs but mobility rights guaranteed
Provide priority processing (10 priorities) but no caps and growing significantly (22,411 in 2008)
Testing ground for new approaches but no evaluation
Designed as complement to FSW but CIC projects more PNP than FSW in future
20
Canadian Experience Class
Provides opportunity for transition to permanent residence for some international students and temporary workers
CEC numbers included in total target for economic permanent residents tabled annually, reducing number admitted under skilled worker program
May ease out one-step permanent residency over time
Devolves selection of immigrants and future citizens to employers and post secondary institutions
Initial settlement support devolved to employers and PSE institutions: no common standards
Delays access to services, permanent residency and citizenship if come to Canada as temporary entrant first
May have unintended consequences for post secondary institutions and domestic students
Ineligibility for CEC may lead to increase of undocumented underclass
21
New Directions and Possible Policy
Implications More blurring of numbers (perm and
temp=newcomers) will make planning and evaluation difficult
Processing priorities ( Que, 10 PNPs, TFW, IS, Spouses and dependents, Ministerial instructions, CEC within existing levels) will disadvantage permanent skilled workers
The occupational list proposed for ministerial instructions for Skilled worker processing will result in a narrower range of skilled workers and will not respond to longer term needs of our economy
22
… Implications
In the absence of fixing the processing and criteria for skilled workers, employers will rely more on the PNP and FTW programs with their concomitant difficulties
Increased proportion of landings will come from CEC, requiring more people to follow a two step process to permanent status without access to federal services in first step, potential delays to citizenship, potential delayed family unification, potential removal of competitive advantage
Increased selection and settlement responsibilities will be expected for Provinces, employers and PSE institutions, and will result in a patchwork of policies and services across the country
23
Potential Scenario in Economic
Downturn Employers will lay off temporary workers hired in past few years Some will return to their home countries; others at low end who are
ineligible for CEC, will go underground if conditions at home are worse than in Canada
Recently hired immigrants may be laid off or face even more difficulties in finding work, becoming more de-skilled and frustrated
Previous arrivals with few language or computer skills will be hardest hit, particularly if already here three years
Economic immigrants with visas may delay their arrival in Canada or come to be “landed” and then return to their countries of origin
Those in 38 occupations may come forward to find changes in the economy no longer needing their skill sets for which they were specifically selected
Members of the family class and refugees will continue to arrive PSE institutions will be oversubscribed and unable to accept large numbers
of international students Employers will not recruit more temporary workers Provinces may reduce their PNP programs We will be unprepared for the end of the downturn and be worse off
demographically and in terms of labour and skill shortages
24
Recommendations
Levels and mix
1. Sustain balanced mix and levels for permanent immigrants (Economic, Family and Refugee).
Skilled worker program
2. Evaluate and strengthen the skilled worker program by changing selection criteria (language test, age, credentials,
occupation, family)
3. Create a searchable skilled worker applicant inventory and expedite applicants with job offers or in demand occupations.
4. Remove restricted occupation list and increase resources for processing
25
…Recommendations
Provincial nominee program
5. Evaluate the provincial nominee programs and work with the provinces to create a common framework.
Canadian experience class
6. Increase tabled target levels and resources to accommodate the CEC. Define roles and responsibilities of employers and post-secondary institutions. Monitor implementation for unintended consequences. Expand eligibility for those already in Canada.
26
..Recommendations
Family and Refugee Classes
7. Expand the family and refugee classes to not only fulfill our social and humanitarian obligations but to address some of our labour and population shortages across the country
Integration
8. Evaluate settlement and labour market programs and make successful interventions available across Canada
Broaden eligibility for overseas orientation and domestic federal settlement programs
Expand early interventions in bridging programs, internships, mentorships, higher language/communication training, loans
Enhance interventions during the downturn (income support, language, computer and skills training) so well prepared for upturn
27
Conclusion
Patterns of immigration and immigration policies are constantly evolving
The cumulative impact of changes is potentially enormous
In the absence of evaluation, good policy development and consultation, we may be creating worse problems, rather than fixing the ones we currently face
Need for public debate and overall vision
The decisions we make today in haste will have a long term impact and will determine who we become tomorrow