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Police Legitimacy Crisis? Results from the 2015
Penn State Omnibus Poll
Jennifer C. Gibbs, Ph.D.Penn State HarrisburgSchool of Public Affairs
Outline
• Confidence in PA police• What “legitimacy” means to PA residents
– Different definitions among groups
• Link between legitimacy and public perception• Implications for policy and research
CONFIDENCE IN POLICE
Penn State Crime & Justice Poll
• Fall 2014 telephone survey• Administered by Center for Survey Research• 600 randomly-selected Pennsylvanians • Assessed attitudes about crime
& criminal justice system
See http://harrisburg.psu.edu/public-affairs/criminal-justice
PA Residents’ Confidence in Police
18%
25%37%
13%7%
…to protect you from violent crime? (n= 595)
A great deal Quite a lot Some
Very little None at all
15%
32%39%
10%
4%
…to solve crime? (n= 597)
A great deal Quite a lot SomeVery little None at all
Women have more confidence in police than men
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
A great deal Some Very little
...in the ability of the police to protect you from violent crime
Male Female
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A great deal Some Very little
...in the ability of the police to solve crime
Male Female
Note: Results are weighted by age & sex; weights calculated by CSR
(Χ2= 10.925, df= 2, p= 0.004) (Χ2= 2.968, df= 2, p= 0.225)
Whites & Hispanics more confident in police than Blacks/African-Americans
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A great deal Some Very little
...in the ability of the police to protect you from violent crime
Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A great deal Some Very little
...in the ability of the police to solve crime
Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black
(Χ2= 12.346, df= 6, p= 0.055) (Χ2= 40.609, df= 6, p= 0.000)
Note: Results are weighted by race; weight calculation assistance from CSR
WHAT IS “LEGITIMACY”?
Source: Time (http://time.com/3815606/police-violence-timeline/)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Feb. 26Trayvon Martin:
Sanford, FL
July 17Eric Garner:
New York City
Aug. 9Michael Brown:Ferguson, MO
Nov. 22Tamir Rice:
Cleveland, OH
April 7Walter Scott:
N. Charleston, SC
April 19Freddie Gray:
Baltimore
Penn State Crime & Justice Poll
fielded by CSR
Timeline of selected police killings making national headlines
Background
• National attention to police-public tension
• Term “legitimacy” used in media
• What does public think “legitimacy” means?
Academics define legitimacy as…
EffectivenessProcedural fairness
Obligation to obeyTrust
Lawfulness Acts of consentMorality
Distributive fairness
HOW DO PA RESIDENTS DEFINE POLICE LEGITIMACY?
I shall not today attempt … to define [it]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it….
Methods
• Telephone survey– Conducted by PSH Center for Survey Research– Part of biannual omnibus Penn State Poll– Administered March 4-April 15, 2015– 16,372 phone numbers dialed (cell + landline)
• Random sample of 601 adult PA residents
Coding scheme
• Open-ended question:Thinking about the police,
what does “legitimacy” mean to you?
• 2 independent coders– 95% agreement (1st round)– Complete agreement after discussion
Sample (n= 421)Sample PA (Census)
Women 54.9% 51.1%
White 89.6% 82.9%
Black or African American 4.2% 11.6%
Hispanic or Latino 2.4% 6.6%
Age (med.) 48 62.2% (18-65)
High school graduate or higher 96.8% 88.7%
Bachelor’s degree or higher 43.4% 27.5%
Below poverty level 13.7% 13.3%
Cell phone 42.6% 26.2%
Definitions of legitimacyCategory Percent
Integrity/Morality 40.7
Lawful/Legal 23.3
Fair/Procedural Justice 14.6
Protection/Effective 12.7
Adequate training/certified/other (real, essential, legitimate) 8.7
Note: Results are weighted by age and sex
Is there a legitimacy crisis in policing?
• It depends on how legitimacy is defined
• Citizen definition categories support literature– Other definitions include training, necessity,
“real”, “legitimate”
DEFINITIONAL DIFFERENCES
Do men and women define legitimacy differently?
Note: Data are weighted by age and sex
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Integrity/Morality
Lawful/ Legality Fair/ Proceduraljustice
Protection/Effective
Training/Certified/ Other
Male Female
NO
Do Whites define legitimacy differently than Minorities?
Χ2=9.987, df= 4, p= 0.041 Note: Data are weighted by race
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Integrity/Morality
Lawful/ Legality Fair/ Proceduraljustice
Protection/Effective
Training/Certified/ Other
White Nonwhite
YES!
Do race differences sustain when other factors are considered?
Factor Lawful/Legality
Fair/ Proc. Justice
Protection/ Effective
Training/ Certified/ Other
Men n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Hispanic n.s. n.s.
White n.s. n.s. n.s.
Age55 or older n.s. n.s.
Republican n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Income n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
EducationCollege n.s. n.s. n.s.
Police contact n.s.
Summary
• Integrity remains most popular definition
– Legality & Protection more common for Hispanics
– Fairness more important for non-Whites
– Older respondents more concerned with training
– Legality & Fairness used by those with police contact
IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN DEFINITIONS OF
POLICE LEGITIMACYAND PUBLIC ATTITUDES
TOWARD POLICE?
DataDependent variables• Opinion of police
(1= positive; 0= negative)
• Are police legitimate? (1= yes; 0= no)
Independent variable• Definition of legitimacy
• Control variables– Men– Hispanic– Black/African-American– Age– Republican– Income– Education– Contact with police
• Plans for analysis: Logit
Sample (n= 421)Sample PA (Census)
Women 54.9% 51.1%
White 89.6% 82.9%
Black or African American 4.2% 11.6%
Hispanic or Latino 2.4% 6.6%
Age (med.) 48 62.2% (18-65)
High school graduate or higher 96.8% 88.7%
Bachelor’s degree or higher 43.4% 27.5%
Under $20K/Below poverty level 13.7% 13.3%
Cell phone 42.6% 26.2%
Positive opinion of police Police are legitimate
Legitimacy definition:Lawful/LegalFairness/PJProtectionTraining/Other
n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.
n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.
n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.
n.s.n.s.
Men - n.s. - n.s.
Hispanic - n.s. - n.s.
White - -
Age - n.s. - n.s.
Republican - n.s. - n.s.
Income - -
Education - n.s. - n.s.
Police contact - n.s. - n.s.
Summary
• Legitimacy definitions not related to views of police– Trend: Protection & Training/Other
• Whites have more favorable views of police
• Those with higher incomes have more favorable views of police
Is there a police legitimacy crisis?
…on how legitimacy is defined…on who is doing the defining
IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY & RESEARCH
If police want to improve their legitimacy in the eyes of their constituents…
• Consider how legitimacy is defined– Target resources to those
areas
• Consider who is defining legitimacy & how
Researchers should…
• Incorporate qualitative data into quantitative surveys
• Pay close attention to group differences
Check for Research Brief later this month…
https://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/Data/tabid/1010/Default.aspx