Rise of the Right

POLAND

LTC

Slaworiir

Pradzynski,

Polish Army

Iraq

2003-4

Poland Rise of the Right

• Geography

• History • Ceased to exist as a Nation several times • Events shaped view of ideology

• Battle of Vienna 1683 Islamism • Battle of Warsaw 1920 / Post WW2 Communism • WWII 1939-45 Nazism

• Current Situation • Rule of Law • EU/Globalization vs

Polish Nationalism

East-Central Europe (120,726 sq mi), mostly temperate climate. GR137K

Almost unbroken plain from Baltic Sea in north, to Carpathian

Mountains in south. Within the plain, terrain variations run in bands

east to west. Numerous invasions.

Carpathian Mtnsn

Vistula River

• 38.5 M pop, 6th populous in EU • GR 80, FR 67, IT 60, UK 64, SP 46. RU 143

• W Slavic ethnic group, share common ancestry, culture, hist, religion & Polish language

• 2011 96.88% reported Polish

• 87% Roman Catholic, then Polish Orthodox & Protestant

• Polish US immigrate 3 waves 2.5M Late 1800s to WW I, After World War II, after fall of USSR

• WW2 Poland lost more killed proportionally than any other country

>6M 1/5 population

Poland

• 8th largest economy in European Union

• High-income economy along with high standards of living, life quality, safety, and economic freedom

• A developed educational system

• Free university education, state-funded social security & universal health care

• Member of Visegrád Group 1991 (V4 93), NATO 1999, European Union 2004, Schengen Area 2007

• Not a member of Euro-Zone (Zloty $.27)

History

Major

Power

From

Baltic

To

Black

Sea

Lost 1/3

people

Damage

more

extensive

than

WWII

Lost

status as

great

power

Robbed

of its

riches &

most

stolen

items

never

returned

Siege

of

Vienna

1683

Battle of Vienna 9-11-1683

Hapsburgs, Poland & Holy Roman Empire

In summer of 1683, 300,000 warriors of Ottoman Empire

began siege of Vienna. The fall of the city would have

opened the way to conquer Europe. On September 11 the

Polish Cavalry arrived and defeated the Turks.

King Jana III Sobieski “Savior of Europe from Islam & Turks”

Partitions

of

Poland

Elimination

of

sovereign

Poland and

Lithuania

for 123

years

1804

Austrian

Empire

No

sovereign

Poland

1914

WWI

Central

Powers

Attack

Russia

1917

Russian

Revolution

Central

Powers

Continue

Attack

Russia

Russian

Civil War

Reds v

Whites

Mar 1918

Bolshevic

Peace

Treaty w

Germany

Treaty

Brest-

Litovsk

Russian

Civil War

Reds v

Whites

continues

Battle of

Warsaw

“Miracle

on the

Vistula”

1920

Nov 1918

WWI ends

Treaty of

Versailles

Poland

re-

emerged

1919

Soviets

won

against

Whites

Battle of Warsaw 1920

• Summer 1920, Soviets invaded Poland. Polish army retreated west - on verge of disintegration & decisive Soviet victory

• Lenin/Soviets expected fall of Polish capital to spark international series of communist uprisings & allow Red Army to join German Revolution

• Aug 12-25, Red Army approached Warsaw. Poles broke Soviet ciphers & counter-attacked forcing Soviets into a disorganized withdrawal.

• Defeat crippled Red Army; Forced Lenin to rethink objective of achieving global socialism. More Polish victories saved independence & led to peace treaty w Soviet Russia & Soviet Ukraine later in year, securing Polish state's eastern frontiers until 1939.

“The Battle

that saved

Europe from

Communism”

WWII

Germany

&

USSR

Invade

&

Divide

Poland

Molotov– Ribbentrop Pact

Soviets

deported

100s of

thousands

Executed

thousands

of Polish

prisoners

of war

Katyn

massacre

Polish

Govern in

Exile

Free Polish

Army, Navy

&

Air Force

Europe’s

most

effective

Resistance

Movement

Germany

Invades

USSR

Aug 1944

Warsaw Uprising Aug 1 – Oct 2, 1944

• Soviet army on outskirts. Poles wanted to liberate the city themselves to show Poland still was a nation. Leverage against Soviets.

• During 63 days of fighting 16,000 resistance fighters were killed & 6,000 badly wounded.

• 150,000 - 200,000 civilians were killed.

• 85% of city was destroyed.

• Warsaw’s entire population was expelled & sent to transit camp Durchgangslager 121. Of 350,000–550,000 civilians who passed through the camp, 90,000 sent to labor camps in Third Reich, & 60,000 shipped to death & concentration camps

WARSAW 1944

Yalta

Conference

Ignored

Polish exile

govern

Betrayal by

the Allies.

USSR took E

land & gave

Poland

Ger land in W

Communist

Gov

installed

Warsaw

Pact

No $ paid

to re-build

1935 Royal Castle in Warsaw

1944

2018

1918 Saxon Palace, Warsaw

1939

2018

2018

2018

Solidarity

1989

Polish

labor union

Gdansk

shipyards

Lech

Wałęsa

1st union

not

controlled

communist

Russia Semi-free

election &

Solidarity-

led coalition

government

w Wałęsa

as President

Constitution

• 1997 Current Constitution adopted by National Assembly & approved by national referendum

• Transform into a “democratic state,” from one-party to multi-party system, & from socialism to a free market economic system

• Guarantees wide range of individual freedoms. Judicial branch plays minor role in politics, apart from Constitutional Tribunal, which can annul laws that violate freedoms in constitution.

Government • Semi-presidential representative democratic republic

• President is head of state & commander of armed forces. • Elected for 5 yrs • Power to veto legislation passed by parliament, can be

overridden by 3/5s majority, can dissolve parliament under certain conditions

• Prime Minister is head of government which consists of Council of Ministers chosen from majority party or coalition, in lower house of parliament (Sejm)

• 2 chambers of parliament, Sejm & Senate. Sejm elected by proportional representation, (parties must have 5% of national vote to seat). Elections every 4 yrs.

• Currently 5 parties represented.

• PiS Law and Justice right-wing populist, national-conservative, & Christian democratic political party.

• Defeated PO Civic Platform 2015

• Largest party, 237 in Sejm & 66 in Senate

• Jaroslaw Kaczyniski

• NOP National

Rebirth of

Poland

ultranationalist

far-right,

neofascist,

nat’l

revolutionary

political party

• 2015 no seats

in Parliament

• PO Civic Platform

liberal-conservative

& Christian

democratic political

party. • 2007-2015 in Power w

Donald Tusk as Prime

Minister. 2014 Tusk

stepped down to be

President of EU Council.

• 2nd largest party 138 in

Sejm & 33 Senate.

Pres Andrzej

Duda

PM Mateusz

Morawiecki

Poland’s President Andrej Duda

63 Press conference at White House Sept. 18, 2018

Poland’s Andrej Duda (Since 2015)

• Seeks military cooperation with US. Purchased US Patriot missile system to counter Russian military threats

• Wants to Invest $2 billion to build a US Division (15,000) military base “Fort Trump” • US Brigade (4000) rotates through Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria

& Romania on continuous basis

• Spends >2% of GDP for own defense above that required of a NATO member. • Visegrád Battlegroup (Regiment (3700), now an EU Battlegroup)

led by Poland with Czech Rep, Slovakia & Hungary. 1991- V4 1993

• 18 EU Battlegroups (Most Bn size 1500) rotate w 2 on ready status

64

President Andrej Duda, Con’t…

• Seeks closer ties with Baltic states to counter perceived Russian threats. “We are the border of NATO – building anti-Russian alliance”. EU Rotational Baltic Air Policing / Eu Battlegroup

• Seeking to counter dependence on Russian energy. GE invested $2 billion in conventional energy plant there. Building pipeline from Baltic Sea to Black Sea.

• Heir to Lech Kaczynski – killed in plane crash in Russia in 2010 with other high gov’t. officials on their way to attend an annual commemoration service for victims of Katyń massacre

• Nemesis: Donald Tusk, former PM 2007 to 2014 and co-founder & chairman of Civic Platform who became head of European Council since 2014.

• Enjoys 75% approval rating.

65

“Rise of Right” Issues • Rule of Law

• Islamic Immigration

• Media Control

• Judicial Independence

• “Holocaust bill”

• Reparations from Germany?

• “Neo-Nazi, Fascist” Demonstrations

• Dispute with EU

• Globalism v Nationalism

Islamic Immigration

•Refuse to accept EUs Mid East immigration quotas

•EU Position: Humanitarian Issue. EU solve together

•Poland’s Position:

•Germany caused problem by accepting refugees & did not consult with other nations –

•Polish National Sovereignty

vs European Union

Germany’s problem

Polish Position (cont)

• Islamic migrants do not integrate and are threat to Western culture, values and security

• Not just a religion but a political Ideology

• Poland saved Eur from Islamic rule at Battle of

• 2,000 refugees predominantly from Syria and Eritrea (vetted and Christian) https://www.ft.com/content/6edfdd30-472a-11e5-b3b2-1672f710807b

Vienna. Not going to just invite them in now.

“… Muhammad is the prophet of all people. He superseded all previous religions…

We have 50 million Muslims in Europe. There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe – without swords, without guns, without military conquests. The 50 million Muslims of Europe will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades.”

- Muammar Gaddafi 2006

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCGYKSEsYFM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-politics/verdict-expected-in-blasphemy-case-against-jakartas-christian-governor-idUSKBN1842GE

May 8 2017

"Ahok" told group of fishermen that politicians who

tell them that the Quran forbids voting for non-

Muslims are lying to them.

Islamic Terrorist Attacks

• …there are now 1.5 M to 300,000-400,000 Ukrainians in Poland

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/13/ukraines-refugees-find-solace-in-poland-europes-most-homogenous-society

May 13, 2015

• Since Law & Justice (PiS) took power, Polish TV became battleground between Polish authorities & European institutions

• 14 state operated channels & 100s of independent commercial channels.

• Duda signed laws enabling government to appoint heads of public TV & radio, as well as civil service directors.

• Treasury minister can hire & fire broadcasting chiefs - a role currently done by a media supervisory committee.

• PiS’ move to control state broadcasters offers what critics call a conservative, nationalist message to match their worldview

Jul 3,2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/04/world/europe/polands-conservative-government-puts-curbs-on-state-tv-news.html

• 163 people, including news anchors & reporters fired or quit state broadcasting. “They did not want to participate in political pacification of media.”

• PiS: “..national media..must be representative of government..If don’t agree, you don’t have to work here.”

• Laws don’t effect internet or social media. Hardly censorship. Did cancel use of public institutions to present sexually explicit on-stage acts in play by Nobel Laureate Elfriede Jelinek.

• BBC's Adam Easton in Warsaw says incoming government’s put their own people in to run state companies, institutions & public media - but PiS is going faster & further

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/04/world/europe/polands-conservative-government-puts-curbs-on-state-tv-news.html

Media

• Young are tuning out TV in favor of social media, but PiS focuses on TV: “Older people are used to TV.”

• All TV audiences have declined. State broadcaster TVP1 — for years most popular channel — places third, behind two commercial channels.

• 47-nation Council of Europe, Eur’s leading human rights body, demanded transparent procedures for selecting new National Media Council. Members should be qualified, independent & reflect social diversity. Content should be impartial & diverse.

• “Liberal democracy is in crisis. More vision, less television.”

Media

Judicial Independence • Supreme Court 72 Judges

• Constitutional Tribunal 15 Judges

1. PiS govern refused to seat judges appointed by the previous party

• 2015 “Nov three & Dec two” Judges. Civic Platform Parliament passed law to allow appointment of all five Judges

• Issue referred to prior Tribunal

2. Installed its own judges

• PiS passed own law: Invalidated 5 appointees & named own 5

3. Refused to recognize the rulings of the court until its majority had been installed.

• Prior court ruled Nov three valid but not Dec two

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/world/europe/poland-court-crisis-constitutional-tribunal.html

Judicial Independence • New laws

• Require 15-strong court to reach 2/3 majority with at least 13 members present, in order to pass rulings.

• Lower retire age of Supreme Court judges from 70 to 65.

• Speed departure of 1/3 of judges appointed by previous govern, allow appointment by current leadership.

• Includes Chief Justice Malgorzata Gersdorf who refused to step down, citing constitution that she serve 6 yr term til 2020.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-takes-poland-court-over-judicial-independence-132926129.html

Judicial Independence

• Tribunal judges are supposed to choose new Tribunal President.

• Parliament passed law that created new position not foreseen in the Constitution: “acting president of the Tribunal.”

• President Andrzej Duda chose Justice Przylebska

• She reconfigured how panels of judges were selected to sit on specific cases.

• Eur Commission referred the case to the European court.

Treaty on European Union • Article 2: Member states uphold EU's founding values

(respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law & respect for human rights)

• Article 7: Procedure to suspend certain rights from member • Enacted when EU Identifies member persistently

breaching values • European Council can vote to suspend rights such as

voting & representation in the Council. NO mechanism to expel a member.

• Identifying the breach requires unanimity (excluding concerned state), but sanctions require only a qualified majority.

• Affected state still bound by the obligations treaties, & Council may alter or lift sanctions by majority.

• Hungary, right-wing populist Viktor Orban, vowed to veto

Judicial Independence •Jul 2017 US State Dept

•Polish government has continued to pursue legislation that appears to undermine judicial independence and weaken the rule of law in Poland. We urge all sides to ensure that any judicial reform does not violate Poland’s constitution or international legal obligations and respects the principles of judicial independence and separation of powers

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/07/272791.htm https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-takes-poland-court-over-judicial-independence-132926129.html

May 12, 2012

“Holocaust Law” • 2018 Polish law outlaws blaming Poland for crimes committed

during Holocaust.

• Up to 3 yrs prison or fine for accusing Polish state or people of involvement or responsibility for Nazi atrocities during WWII.

• Harshest penalties: those who call Nazi concentration camps such as Auschwitz “Polish death camps.” Only scientific research into the war & artistic work are exempted.

• Term “Polish death camp” has riled both current nationalist govern & its liberal predecessors. Polish foreign ministry issued 913 statements 2008-15 in response to term use. “We have to send a clear signal to world that we won’t allow Poland to continue being insulted.”

• Bill sparked outrage in Israel after passed Jan 26, (eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day). Called attempt to whitewash role some Poles had in detention & killing of Polish Jews during World War II.

time.com/5128341/poland-holocaust-law/

Polish Position • Germany killed 2.9 M

Polish Jews (90% of pre-war Poland’s Jewry),

plus

• 2.8 M ethnic non-Jewish Poles including academics, doctors, lawyers, nobility, priests & others.

Polish Position • Poland physically annexed by Third Reich. Not even a

puppet government. Holocaust perpetrated by Nazis. • Fewer than .1% of Poles collaborated with Germans. • By nationality, Poles represent largest number of people

who rescued Jews during the Holocaust. • 6,620 Poles awarded title of Righteous Among the Nations

by Israel–more than any other nation. • Estimates say up to 3M Poles involved in rescuing & credit

Poles with sheltering up to 250,000 Jews. • Polish underground advised Allies of camps & requested

bombing. • Jun 2018 Law amended to remove prison

https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-softens-controversial-holocaust-law-after-backlash-mateusz-morawiecki/

Warsaw revives call for German WWII reparations

photoshopped like Auschwitz gate “Arbeit macht frei.” telewizjarepublika.pl/ile-sa-nam-winni-niemcy-wideo,52514.html

• PiS leader Kaczyński says ‘Poland never renounced its compensation claim.’ Accuses Berlin of abusing its influence in EU to sway debate about Poland’s infringement of EU rule of law standards.

• German says issue was “dealt with conclusively in the past.”

• 1945 Potsdam conference Allies agreed Soviet Union would get reparations, & that part should be paid to Poland.

• 1953 Soviet Union gave up reparations that might impoverish its East German satellite, & communist-ruled Poland followed suite. PiS says communist regime “was a Soviet colony”

https://www.politico.eu/article/warsaw-revives-call-for-german-wwii-reparations/

Reparations • 1990 Ger reunification & Pol-Ger treaty guaranteed post-war

borders. 500 M Deutsche marks to foundation in Warsaw & 2B DM to Polish victims of Nazi forced labor.

• 2004 after joining EU, Polish govern confirmed it wouldn’t seek reparations.

• Germany is crucial economic partner for Poland, buying quarter of all Polish exports, and was key advocate of Poland’s joining EU.

• Compensation issue is opening fissures within government & within PiS Law and Justice.

• Bulk of party strongly supports Kaczyński, Duda — already at odds with PiS for recent veto of 2 bills giving govern more power over judiciary — has been more circumspect.

Did you see that Poland went all neo-Nazi

on us last night?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QczXFX0EYoE

Stefan Tompson https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCNWtVoOLlo&list=PLEPPxkXoEmgEeWnOK-ZIXZLFQx9J-hVV3

Polorization

Right vs

Left

Nationalism

vs

EU

Golbalization

Merkel hates German Flag EU/Globalism

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QczXFX0EYoE

Poland’s Future • Poland’s economy tops in EU28, expanding at 4X bloc’s

average. Warsaw is Europe’s fastest-growing metro region. Tech is boom’s engine: Poland’s early embrace of digital, combined w educational tech focus, created conditions.

• Younger, urban Poles find liberalism dated, reject idea that Brussels knows better & back PiS. New generation gap cuts off those below 35, Poles who only vaguely remember life w/o open Schengen borders, much less communism.

• Liberalism and EU are, really, your parents’ thing. “It’s not cool anymore,” “Now the pro-Europeans are the old establishment. People are rebelling against it.”

• After: 123 yrs of no nation;

6 years of Nazi rule;

Decades of control

by Soviet Union

• Poland will not be controlled by EU.

European Union Globalism

Poland

Nationalism Rule of Law

Rise of the Right

POLAND

11-25-18

•End lifetime appointments

•18-year term limits for justices.

•Ea president appoints 2 new justices per 4-year term. Justices term-limited off rotate to circuit courts.

•Raises political stakes - every presidential election = a referendum on Supreme Court

•Supermajority vote of either 60 or 67 senators to confirm justices.

• Congress - strip court of jurisdiction over specific issues by limiting what cases court can hear by Exceptions Clause • Congress has routinely increased Court’s jurisdiction, so why

can’t it limit it?

• Early 1900’s, after court struck down law to ban child labor & other laws regulating corporations ― progressives introduced legislation for Congress to override Supreme Court decisions, require a supermajority vote on court to nullify enacted laws & strip court of jurisdiction over laws banning child labor

• 1970s & 80s conservatives introduced bills to strip court of ability to hear appellate cases on school prayer, school busing, abortion, male-only military draft, police arrests & cases from state court decisions.

• Congress enact recusal & ethics laws to strip court of jurisdiction

• Add new justices to Supreme Court.

• Constitution does not set # of justices - nine since 1869

• Franklin Roosevelt’s failed attempt to pack the court in 1937

• Controversial - allows one political party to change personnel of court to get partisan outcome they desire. If one party does it, what’s to stop the other party next time

• 1.20.21 - public education campaign run by political scientist Aaron Belkin & liberal Harvard Law School professors to get progressives to pack court in 2021 if they have necessary political power

• Reverse “judicial theft” of 2 seats by next Democratic president appoint 4 new justices. Supreme Court = 13 justices

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/supreme-court-kavanaugh-gorsuch_us_5bf806e3e4b0771fb6b8489a