Upload
gloria-short
View
217
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
P.O. Box 463
6200 AL
Maastricht
www.riks.nl
Hedwig van
Delden
Garry McDonald
Jasper van Vliet
1
Integrating macro-economic developments and land-use
allocations in simulating urban dynamics
2
Research context
Two research projects in New Zealand to develop and use spatial models for supporting planning processes policy impact assessment forecasting land-use developments application to a rural region: Waikato application to two urban regions: Auckland
and Wellington
3
Land use change over time…
Land use dynamics are complex and exhibit self- organising behaviour Planners and policy makers have a decisive influence on future land use
Challenge!
Contradiction?
4
Challenges
Simulation of spatial developments over time Incorporation of a range of drivers Dynamics driven by processes operating on
various scales Bottom-up and top-down interactions!
Development of a system for policy support Useful system for policy analysts in supporting
scenario studies and policy impact assessment Transparent system with access to data and
parameters for technicians and modellers
5
Starting point…
Metronamica land use model Constrained cellular automata based
model Yearly time steps Time horizon 2025-2050 Spatial extent 100 x 100 km (Wellington) Spatial resolution 100 m (Wellington)
6
Land useLand use
Time Time LoopLoop
&&
Stochastic Stochastic perturbatiperturbati
onon
0 0.5 1
randvt ln1
& & interaction interaction
weightsweightsSuitabilitySuitability
&&
AccessibilityAccessibility
&&
Transition RuleTransition RuleChange cells to the land
use for which they have the highest transition potential until regional demands are
met
ZoningZoning
&&
Land useLand useat time T+1at time T+1
TransitionTransitionPotentialsPotentials
==
7
How to obtain regional demands?
Macro-economic model Input-output model Calculation of economic developments per
sector taking into account the interdependencies between sectors
Annual time step
Demographic model Age cohort model Calculation of the population per age cohort
based on birth, mortality and migration rates Annual time step
8
Integrating socio-economics and land use
Demand side
Final demand ($)
Output ($)
Supply side
Change in final demand
($)
Reduction in output
($)
Land use allocation
- Spatial planning- Suitability - …
t-1
Land that could not be allocated
Conversion to land use demands (ha)
Demographic
developments
- Exports - …
9
Integrating macro-economics and land use
Main benefit of using IO (or CGE) models is that the impact of land use can be analysed not only on one sector, but also on all other sectors
Dynamic coupling between macro-economics and land-use change Impact of socio-economic growth on land
use developments Impact of (limited) natural resources on
economic development The concept of the economic model had to
be stretched by calculating the demand in one year and the supply in another, not allowing an equilibrium in each year
10
Conclusions on the modelling approach
Dynamic coupling between macro-economics and land use change Impact of socio-economic growth on land use
developments Impact of (limited) natural resources on
economic development Equilibrium approach of economic models
often poses conceptual conflicts with the simulation approach of dynamic land use change models
Being able to couple models technically doesn’t mean the coupling makes sense!
For future research it is recommended to focus first on the integration of the processes and next on the model implementation