PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES READINESS: RATING CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES

 

Celeste Wanner, Kyle Clark-Sutton, Saba Siddiki, John Rupp*, Sanya Carley, John Graham

School of Public and environmental Affairs

Indiana University

Organization

Introduction Research design & analysis Results Conclusions

Introduction

Consumer interest in PEVs is not yet high enough to meet manufacturer production goals or policy goals for EV adoption set by the federal government and ZEV states

This study examines additional municipal, along with their respective state measures that could stimulate consumer interest in EVs

Understand how cities compare across the country

Incentives to EV deployment

Goal: Accelerate the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV)

Objectives: Offer a suite of benefits to owners and operators of PEVs, including financial incentives and infrastructure perks How: “hard” and “soft policies supporting PEVs, infrastructure, and

operation Whose policies: Municipalities but, also how they interact with state

policies All influenced the same by federal policies, therefore not considered

Who are the purchasers: include individuals, businesses, and municipal government entities

Examples of Incentives

Municipal policies can include: Special parking privileges, especially in congested areas City-subsidized charging stations Streamlined permit procedures for installing a home charging

station State policies can include:

HOV-lane access State-level tax credits and rebates for purchase of PEVs or

charging equipment Structure of electricity pricing Other reduced fees, such as vehicle registration or inspection

fees

Creating an index of “readiness” Built an index that identifies and ranks the

“readiness” of 36 major U.S. cities for integration of PEVs into the transportation sector

Readiness is the degree to which a city supports the adoption of electric vehicles

Municipalities were ranked based on how they scored in the index

Challenges to analysis

Policies of cities (and the states in which they are located) are by no means uniform, complicating the development of an index

Interaction of policies (fed, state, muni)

Dynamic terrain: polices are coming and going as well as changing through time

Changing price of petroleum…

Background – ZEV program

California enacted a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) requirement for vehicle manufacturers doing business in the state

Congress has permitted other states to enact a program identical to the CA ZEV program

9 states have adopted the ZEV program: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New

Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont 8 of these have further signed an MOU to promote ZEVs 2 adopted but then repealed ZEV: Arizona, New Mexico 3 considered but did not adopt: Colorado, Utah and

Illinois

Research goals

Develop a preliminary scoring methodology for comparing cities’ PEV readiness

Answer the question: Does participation in the ZEV program have a meaningful impact on EV readiness in cities assessed?

Research Design

Approach to rating cities was constructed from the perspective of a potential new car buyer considering a PEV

Identified 16 variables related to consumer interest in PEVs (variables that can vary by city or by state, and

therefore cities in different states) Selected 25 largest cities by population, plus

largest cities in ZEV states, as well as 5 other large cities included in other major PEV studies Cities represent ripe markets for PEV adoption 36 cities in 25 states

Location of cities and ZEV states

Research Design/Analysis

Two scoring systems Simple scoring system

Transforms variables into dichotomous variables and weights each equally

Weighted scoring system Extra weight added to variables

recommended as best practices or that have been demonstrated to have significant impact on PEV sales

Index Variables: Financial Incentives

Variable Description Rationale

Hard Incentives Consumer Purchase Incentives

Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase a PEV

Purchase incentives bring down the upfront costs of PEVs to be more competitive with traditional vehicles

Public/Private Purchase Incentives

Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase a PEV

Consumer EVSE incentives

Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase and/or install EVSE

Public/Private EVSE Incentives

Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase and/or install EVSE

Time of Use/Special PEV Electricity Pricing

Whether the main utility in the city offers TOU pricing (unrelated to PEV ownership) or a specific PEV charging rate to PEV owners

Low electricity prices for overnight PEV charging decreases costs to consumer

Reduced fees Whether a PEV is afforded special consideration with regard to registration fees, vehicle tax, or sales and use tax

Decreased costs for PEV driver

Non-financial incentives

Soft Incentives Charging stations per capita Total number of level 1, level 2,

and DC fast chargers in the city (as of February 2015) per capita

Access to more chargers reduces range anxiety

HOV lane access Whether the state affords special HOV access to PEV owners

HOV lane access reduces commuting time for PEV drivers in cities with high congestion problems

EVSE Permitting Whether the city has streamlined the permitting process for installing EV Supply Equipment

Speeding up the process to have the proper wiring and charger installed in a consumer's home or business

Parking Privileges Whether the city offers free, reduced cost, or reserved parking for PEV owners

Free or dedicated parking can save PEV drivers time and money

Additional Index VariablesFuel Cost Environment

Gas Price April 2015 prices Higher gas prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers

Electricity Price 2013 electricity price for the main utility in the city

Lower electricity prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers

Special Fleet Programs

Municipal Fleet Whether the local government has made efforts to integrate PEVs into municipal fleets ("Lead by example")

Cities that are leading by example help demonstrate the benefits of EVs to citizens

EV Car Sharing Service Whether an electric vehicle car sharing service is offered in the city

EV car sharing offers more opportunities for residents to experience PEVs, and it is indicative of the general attitude towards PEVs

Additional Indicators

Clean Cities Coalition Whether a Clean Cities Coalition exists in the city

Clean Cities coalitions assist in the promotion of PEVs in their communities

Tesla Direct Sale Whether Tesla is allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state.

This is considered an indicator of the general attitude towards PEVs in the state

Results

Simple and weighted scoring results were similar, with little movement in the rankings

Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient test – No statistically significant difference between two

scoring approaches. Spearman’s ρ (rho) = 0.9364 p-value = .0000

Results

A t-test (comparison test) was applied under both scoring conditions to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between scores for cities in ZEV states vs. non-ZEV states.

No statistically significant difference between ZEV and non-ZEV

Simple Scoring

Weighted Scoring

ZEV Mean 8.69 ± 0.98 12.46 ± 1.65

Non-ZEV Mean 7.17 ± 0.54 10.26 ±1.02

t = -1.47 -1.20

Significance (p-value) 0.15 0.24

How they ranked:

Simple Score by Category

Portlan

d (OR)

Los A

ngeles

Baltimore

San Fr

ancis

co

San Jo

se

Seatt

leAusti

n

Orlando

Phoenix

Honolulu

Houston

Fort

Worth

Jackso

nville

Philadelp

hia

San Antonio

Charlotte

El Paso

Providen

ce0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost EnvironmentSpecial Fleet Programs Other

= ZEV states

Columbus

Providence

Detroit

Charlotte

Philadelphia

Newark

Jacksonville

Fort Worth

Honolulu

Phoenix

Boston

Indianapolis

Seattle

Austin

Chicago

Denver

New York City

Washington DC

0 5 10 15 20 25

Pev readiness index - Weighted scoring

(ZEV cit ies in green)

Weighted Score

ColumbusPortland (ME)

ProvidenceEl PasoDetroit

MemphisCharlotte

San AntonioPhiladelphia

BurlingtonNewarkRaleigh

JacksonvilleDallas

Fort WorthNashvilleHonoluluHartfordPhoenix

San JoseBoston

HoustonIndianapolis

San DiegoSeattle

OrlandoAustin

San FranciscoChicagoAtlantaDenver

Los AngelesNew York City

BaltimoreWashington DC

Portland (OR)

0 5 10 15 20 25

P E V R E A D IN E S S IN D E X - W E IGH T E D S CO R IN G

Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost Environment

Special Fleet Programs Other

ColumbusPortland (ME)

ProvidenceEl PasoDetroit

MemphisCharlotte

San AntonioPhiladelphia

BurlingtonNewarkRaleigh

JacksonvilleDallas

Fort WorthNashvilleHonoluluHartfordPhoenix

San JoseBoston

HoustonIndianapolis

San DiegoSeattle

OrlandoAustin

San FranciscoChicagoAtlantaDenver

Los AngelesNew York City

BaltimoreWashington DC

Portland (OR)

0 5 10 15 20 25

PEV R EA D IN ES S IN D EX - WEIGH TED S CO R IN G

Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost Environment Special Fleet Programs Other

Conclusions

Cities, and their states, differ considerably in how ready they are for PEVs

Location of a city in a ZEV state is a weak indication of municipal readiness for PEV adoption

Conclusions cont.

Not all ZEV states are implementing the policies that are needed to spur PEV adoption. Recently, some states have enacted higher fees on the

registration of PEVs, on the stated rationale that EVs do not pay fuel taxes to support road construction and repair.

Others are adding (Connecticut) or removing (Georgia) monetary incentives.

ZEV states opting in or out Proactive policies are especially important in the current

climate of lower oil prices Lack of proactive policies will make achieving EV

adoption goals, ZEV mandates, and climate change mitigation goals much more difficult…in both states and cities

Conclusions cont.

High level of interactivity required between state and municipal policies For municipal policies to be both effective and efficient,

they need to be coordinated with state-level policies States influence city-level policy through:

Funding support for local PEV-supportive policies Encouraging and coordinating polices Assisting in implementation

Municipal policies need to be coordinated with the policies of electric utilities and the commercial structures that service residents of the city and surrounding communities

Questions?

Additional Resources

International Council on Clean Transportation. “Assessment of leading electric vehicle promotion activities in United States cities.” Available at http://www.theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities.

Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015a. Electric vehicle charging station locations. U.S. Department of Energy.

Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015b. Federal and state laws and incentives. U.S. Department of Energy.

Benecchi, A., Mattila, M., and Syed, S. N. 2010. PEV Readiness Study: Electric Vehicles in America. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and Rocky Mountain Institute.

Carley, S., R. Krause, B. Lane, J. Graham. 2013. “Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 18.

EIA. 2015. Table 6: 2013 Utility Bundled Retail Sales – Residential. Electric Sales, Revenue, and Price.

Egbue, O., & Long, S. 2012. “Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: an analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions.” Energy Policy, 48, 717-729.

GasBuddy. 2015. USA and Canada Current Average Gas Prices by City/State/Province.

Lutsey, N., Searle, S., Chambliss, S., and Bandivadekar, A. 2015. Assessment of Leading Electric Vehicle Promotion Activities in United States Cities. International Council on Clean Transportation.

Scoring Methodology

Table 2. Scoring Methodology

Variable Description Weighted Scoring Methodology

Hard Purchase-related Incentives Consumer Purchase Incentives

EV Purchase and EVSE incentives are defined as any specific dollar amount offered by the state, local government, or utility as an incentive for the purchase of a PEV or the purchase and installation of EVSE.

No Incentives = 0 pts Incentives $1 - $2,499 = 1 pt. Incentives $2,500 - $4,999 = 2 pts. Incentives $5,000 - $9,999 = 3 pts. Incentives ≥ $10,000 = 4 pts. *The highest possible incentive amount was used for scoring.

Public/Private Purchase Incentives Consumer EVSE incentives Public/Private EVSE Incentives

Time of Use/Special EV Electricity Pricing

Whether the utility offers TOU pricing (unrelated to EV ownership) or a specific EV charging rate to EV owners

No weighted scoring

Reduced Fees Whether a PEV is afforded special consideration with regard to registration fees, vehicle tax, or sales and use tax

Weighted scoring reflects how many exceptions are allowed (e.g. registration fees only or registration fees and vehicle tax).

Soft Incentives

Scoring Methodology cont.

Soft Incentives Charging Station Count The number of L1, L2, and DC Fast charging

stations per capita. Simple scoring assigned 1 point to cities with greater than 15 chargers per million residents. Weighted scoring assigned 1, 2, and 3 points for cities with greater than 15, 30, and 45 chargers per million residents respectively.

EVSE Permitting Whether the city has streamlined the permitting process for installing EVSE

1 point for online permitting 2 points for instant or expedited permitting

HOV Access Whether a PEV is allowed unrestricted access to HOV lanes within the city of interest.

Cities with "Yes" scores are weighted using congestion data (congested travel as % of VMT): Congestion > 80: 3 points Congestion > 60: 2 points Congestion > 40: 1 point

Parking Privileges Whether free parking or reserved parking is offered for EV owners

Weighted scoring is based on the extent of the special privileges. Generally 1 point is assigned for EV-only reserved spaces. 2 points are assigned if EVs receive free parking in a high-demand location or are exempt from parking fees everywhere.

Scoring Methodology cont.

Parking Privileges Whether free parking or reserved parking is offered for EV owners

Weighted scoring is based on the extent of the special privileges. Generally 1 point is assigned for EV-only reserved spaces. 2 points are assigned if EVs receive free parking in a high-demand location or are exempt from parking fees everywhere.

Fuel Cost Environment Gas Price Average gas price on 4/14/15 1 point assigned if price was above

national average No weighted scoring

Electricity Price Average electricity price for 2013 (cents/kWh)

1 point assigned if price was below national average No weighted scoring

Special Fleet Programs Municipal Fleet Whether the local government has made

efforts to integrate PEVs into municipal fleets ("Lead by example")

1 additional point assigned to those cities that have made substantial investments in BEVs for their municipal fleet (>50 BEVs purchased or committed)

EV Car Sharing Whether a car sharing service featuring EVs exclusively is present in the city.

No weighted scoring

Additional indicators Clean Cities Coalition Whether a Clean Cities Coalition exists in

the city of interest No weighted scoring

Tesla Direct Sale Whether Tesla is allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state rather than through a dealer.

No weighted scoring

Simple Score - Detail

Weighted Score - Detail

weighting

how and why the weighted score was devised - yes that is correct that I/we looked at the literature and identified which variables are often recommended as being very important or have been shown to increase adoption in some studies, so then came up with a way to score those higher than only a 1 or 0. The numerical variables (like the level of the incentive) that were split into ranges to give increasingly more points to higher levels of monetary incentive, or charging stations per million people. HOV lane access was weighted higher in areas with progressively worse congestion (with points allocated to different ranges of congestion values). For charger station permitting, we decided to give 1 point if they offered online permitting, and 2 points if they offered instant or expedited permitting and inspection. For parking privileges we gave a score of 1 if there was mention of reserved spaces for EV charging, and 2 points if they offer free parking to EVs.

Weighted score by category

Portlan

d (OR)

New Yo

rk City

Los A

ngeles

Chicago

San Fr

ancis

co

San Dieg

o

Indianap

olis

Boston

San Jo

se

Hartford

HonoluluDall

as

Raleigh

Philadelp

hia

San Antonio

Charlotte

El Paso

Providen

ce0

5

10

15

20

25

Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost EnvironmentSpecial Fleet Programs Other

= ZEV states