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Mihail C. RocoNational Science Foundation and National Nanotechnology Initiative
Sustainable Nanotechnology Organization, Orlando, November 10, 2016
Nanotechnology-inspired Grand Challenges and Sustainability
Sustainability grand challenges ahead
TASS, Sept 2016
Sustainable and resilient society – many facets
• Social (population growth and needs, governance, enduring democracy
• Economic (“more with less”: knowledge, technology, materials, water, energy, food, climate, green chemistry)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
http://www.cnhlcms.org/uploads/hands_earth_many2_280x240.JPG
Nano 2020 Report, 2011 (Ref 4)
• Resilient (infrastructure, emergency response, for life cycle)
• Maintaining quality of life and• Environmental (clean, renewable, biodiverse)
sustainability in planetary boundaries
Nanotechnology Governance Principles
NANOTECHNOLOGYGOVERNANCE
- Investment policy- Science policy- Risk management- Others . . . .
Four key functions:Risk
Governance
Visionary & Anticipatory (strategy, grand challenges ...)
Reso
urce
s
Level of Development
ExistingR&DResources
ExistingCommercialization
Resources
Discovery FFE Development Commercialization
Fuzzy Front EndDecision space
between opportunitydiscovery and product
development Transformative(productivity, outcomes …)
Responsible
Inclusive
Benefit society
RiskSustainability
Ref: Societal Implications of Nanoscience & Nanotech. (Roco and Bainbridge), Springer, 2001 and 2006
Nanotechnology-inspired grand challenges
Principles for progress via grand challenges (NNI, 2000-): - Planning long-term vision-inspired research- Facilitate S&T breakthroughs - Advance sustainable development - Support convergence processes
Several U.S. priorities in 2016 - 2017 Nanotechnology Signature Initiatives (re: sustainability)Sustainable Food-Energy-Water Systems Brain research; Nanotechnology-inspired Brain-like Computing National Strategic Computing Initiative National Network for Manufacturing Innovation
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Long-term vision-inspired research
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016Focus on conceptual, synthetic goals
Modified Stokes diagram
PureBasic Research
(Bohr)
Use-inspired Basic Research
(Pasteur))EEEEEE
Pure Applied Research
(Edison)
Relevance for applications
Rele
vanc
e fo
r the
adva
ncem
ent o
f kno
wle
dge
Low use
Low
High Vision-inspired
Basic Research(added in CKTS, 2013)
New use, domainsKnown use
Empirical, less useful
Vision inspired research has been essential for the long-term view of nanotechnology
Roco and Bainbridge, 2013 , Fig 9 (Ref. 1) MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Ex: Apollo program Ex: NNI program
Nanotechnology for sustainable societyExamples of long-term targets
• Nanosystems design and separations methods for economic desalinization
• Infinitely recyclable, re-usable, and renewable industrial ecosystems (IR3) to reduce demand for virgin materials and carbon emissions
• Community, buildings and household self-sufficiency
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
nano12000
2010
2020
2030
nano3
1999
30 year vision to develop nanotechnology in three stages changing focus and priorities
20102013
Reports available on: www.wtec.org/nano2/ and www.wtec.org/NBIC2-report/ (Refs. 3-6)
The 30 year vision has sparked imagination in Congress and 3 WHs
President Bush Signing 21st
Century Nanotechnology R&D Act –December 2003
President Clinton announces NNI in January 2000
NNI in four administrations: Clinton, Bush, Obama,
NSF vision report March1999
WH approves 15 yrview by PCAST 2014
President Obama
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
2017
-202
1 Pre
siden
t
Create library of nanocomponents
2000-2010
Active Nanostructures
2000
nano1 Component basics
2030 New socio-economic capabilities,
2020-2030nano3 Technology divergence
To general purpose technology
2010-2020
nano2 System integration
Based on NANO 2020, Fig. 5 (Ref. 3)
Passive Nanostructures
Systems of Nanosystems
Molecular Nanosystems
NBIC TechnologyPlatforms
GENERATIONS OFNANOPRODUCTS
CREATING A GENERAL PURPOSE NANOTECHNOLOGY IN 3 STAGES
NanosystemConv. Networks
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Increasing “active nanotechnology” publications
Suominen et al., A Bibliometric Analysis of the Development of Next Generation Active Nanotechnologies, J. Nanoparticle Research, Vol18 (9).2016 MC. Roco, Nov 3 2016
Facilitate S&T breakthroughs
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
STI breakthroughs have a key role in long-term development
S&T breakthroughs underpin Grand Challenges (examples of novel concepts targeted by NNI in 2000 “in 20-30 years”)
Library of Congress in a “one cubic cm” memory device: target 30-40 atoms (2000); Realized 12-atom structure (IBM, 2012), DNA structure (Harvard, 2012; in “one cubic mm”). “Millions times smaller”
Exploit nano-photonics: change direction and frequency of light (2004, then succession of solutions); negative diffraction of light / electrons in meta-materials (2004) & 2D mat (2007). “New phenomena and devices”
Molecular cancer detection and treatment (first gold-shells, Rice, 2002 -2016 many other solutions in progress) “Not possible before”
Quasi-frictionless nanocomponents: quantum fluctuations between selected material surfaces (first Harvard, 2008). “Almost frictionless”
Magnetic computing close to the lowest Landauer fundamental limit of energy dissipation under the laws of thermodynamics (STC Berkeley, 2016). “Millions times less energy consumption” MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
S&T breakthroughs underpin Grand Challenges (examples of novel concepts targeted by NNI in 2000 “in 20-30 years”)
The promised smallest transistor in 2000 100 nm; realized 1nm in 2016 (Desei et al., Science, Stanford U): “Hundred times smaller”
Quantum communication at room temperature with few photons (STC Harvard, Westervelt et al. 2014): “Single photon memory device”
Promised to develop a predictive approach with case studies for nanotoxicity: “UC CEIN Predictive Toxicological Platforms”
Promised evaluation and governance using convergent methods: “Duke CEINT Governance Platform”
Formulation nano-ELSI and establish International nano-ELSI: “ASU and UCSB international CNS platform”
Mass-media dissemination of nanotechnology in society: “NCLT; NISE; NBC videos; Nano-Generation” MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
IBM magnetic storage is at 100 times denser than hard disk drives and solid state memory chips
Antiferromagnetic order in an iron atom array on copper nitrate revealed by spin-polarized imaging with a scanning tunneling microscope; area 4x16 nm (Bistability in Atomic-Scale Antiferromagnets, Loth, Baumann, C Lutz, Eigler and Heinrich,
Science Jan 2012)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
DNA data memory system (Harvard U.)
2000: NNI goal for ~ 2025 - all information from Library of Congress in a device of size of 1 cm cube (Pres. Clinton) – was labeled as too ambitious
2012: DNA system could store it in about 1 mm cube(Church et al., Science, Aug. 2012)
DNA system (2012)
2000 NNI goal for ~2025
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Defining convergence
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Defining S&T convergence (Ref 6: “Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society”, Springer, 2013)
Convergence is deep integration of knowledge, tools, techniques, and modes of thinking - into a unified ecosystem (changing the system) -
that allows to answer questions, resolve problems and build things that isolated capabilities cannot (goal oriented stage),
- as well as that creates new pathways and opportunities - competencies, knowledge, technologies, applications (divergence stage)
Convergence science – Creating or changing the unified ecosystem (based on 10 theories and 6 convergence principles)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Added Valueapplications
New K&T Systems
Integration
Evolutionary processes of convergence and divergence in S&T
B
New K&T Parts
CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCEAInnovation
evolutionary spiralKnowledge confluence
S
T
The spiral is driven by the added-value goal through the convergence of domains S, in the external context ENV (imagine a “tornado” or “hurricane” with surrounding air flow and Earth rotation). After Refs. 1 (Roco 2002) and 6 (CKTS Report 2013) MC Roco,
Nov 10 2016
ENV
Convergence of knowledge, technology and society is guided by six general principles
A. The interdependence in nature and society
B. Evolutionary processes of convergence and divergence
C. System-logic deduction in decisions
D. Higher-level cross-domain languages
E. Confluence of resources leading to system changes (S curve)
F. Vision-inspired basic research for long-term challenges
PRINCIPLES FORCONVERGENCE
Ref: Science and technology convergence, J Nanopart Res (2016) 18:211 MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Three implemented stages of S&T Convergence
- Nano, NBIC, society ecosystem -
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Three stages of convergence(Ref 6: CKTS, Springer, 2013)
I. Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology “Nanotechnology”
Integrates disciplines and knowledge of matter from the nanoscale
II. Nano-Bio-Info-Cognitive Converging Technologies “NBIC”
Integrates foundational and emerging technologies from basic elements using similar system architectures
III. Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society“CKTS”
Integrates the essential platforms of human activity using five convergence principles
MC. Roco, Nov 10 2016
NSFHHS/NIH
DHS
NRC
HHS/FDA
CPSC ITC
DOC/ USPTO
HHS/CDC/NIOSH
DOC/BIS
USDA/FS
DOEd
DODDOE
NASA
DOC/NIST
EPA
DOT
DOTr
DOJ
IC/DNI
DOS
USDA/NIFAUSDA/ARS
DOI/ USGS
OMBOSTP
DOC/EDA
DOL
U.S. National Nanotechnology Initiative, 2000-2030
I. Nanotechnology divergence
OSTP
Breakout of NNI funding by program component areas in the 2017 Budget Request: evolving with priorities
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
EHS budget share– 7%
I. National Nanotechnology Initiative, 2016 Nanotechnology Signature Initiatives
Sustainable Nanomanufacturing www.nano.gov/NSINanomanufacturing
Nanoelectronics for 2020 and Beyond www.nano.gov/NSINanoelectronics
Water Sustainability through Nanotechnology www.nano.gov/node/1577
Nanotechnology Knowledge Infrastructure www.nano.gov/NKIPortal
Nanotechnology for Sensors www.nano.gov/SensorsNSIPortal
Other considered topics are related to: nanomodular systems, nanomedicine, nanocellulose, nanophotonics, nano-city. Completed: Nanotechnology for Solar Energy (2011-2015)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
NanoModular Materials andSystems by Design, NSF/WTEC, 2016
http://www.wtec.org/nmsd/docs/NMSD-FinalReport-Web-Lowres.pdfMC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Energy-Efficient Computing: from Devicesto Architectures (E2CDA)
port data
E2CDA invests in radical new approaches –from brain- inspired architectures to hybriddigital-analog designs
Partnership between NSF (ENG and CISE) andSemiconductor Research Corporation (SRC)
I. Nanotechnology-inspired Grand Challenge “Brain like computing”
combining National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) & BRAIN Initiative
• Nanotechnology-Inspired Grand Challenge for Future Computing (DOD, DARPA, DOE, IARPA, NSF), announced by OSTP on Oct 21, 2015: http://www.nano.gov/futurecomputing
• Purpose: “Create a new type of computer that can proactively interpret and learn from data, solve unfamiliar problems using what it has learned, and operate with the energy efficiency of the human brain.”
Also: pattern recognition, human like simultaneous perception of information from various sources including the five senses, intelligence from the bottom with materials that compute (like tissues & neuromorphics), simultaneous actions, natural communication.
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Ref: Intelligent Cognitive Assistants (ICA) report, 2016The report is available on www.nsf.gov/nano (4th item) and www.semiconductors.org/issues/research/research/
Intelligent cognitive assistants2016 workshop (sponsored by NSF, SIA, SRC)
Systems that are highly useful to humans, specifically on the topic of Harnessing Machine Intelligence to Augment Human Cognition and Human Problem-Solving Capabilities – e.g., research that drives towards “Intelligent Cognitive Assistants”
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
MachinesHuman Centered Cognitive
Engineered SystemsSmart Machines
Achieve functionality Improve
productivity/consistency/quality
Achieve functionality Improve productivity/
consistency/ quality Has some learning/decision
making capacity
Achieve functionality Improve productivity/
consistency/quality Has greater learning/decision
making capacity Collaborate with humans Evolve in time as they learn
Human Centered Cognitive Engineered System
NSF/ENG, Oct 2016
Water Sustainability through Nanotechnology
Research thrusts
• Increase water availability (ex: double the throughput membrane separation systems within 5 years)
• Improve the efficiency of water delivery and use (ex: Develop within 5 years nanotechnology-enabled coatings that reduce by 50% the amount of energy)
• Enable the next-generation water monitoring systems with nanotechnology (ex: continuous, real-time measurement of water quality that are more sensitive, more reliable, use sensors)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
http://nanoinformatics.org/2015/agenda/MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NSF
-NSE
Aw
ard/
Pape
r/Pa
tent
Per
cent
age
Year
Top 20 Journals' Nano Paper Percentage 3 Selected Journals' Nano Paper Percentage Title-claim Search's Nano Patent Percentage NSF Nano New Award Percentage Revenues Market / GDP
•NSE Awards started to use Combined Keywords from 2011•For Top 20 journals, 3 selected journals, title-claim search of nano patents, Combined keywords are used since 2014.
Percentage rate of penetration of nanotechnology in NSF awards, WoS papers and USPTO patents (1991-2015)
Searched by keywords in the title/abstract/claims (update Encyclopedia Nanoscience, Roco, 2016)
2015 NSF grants ~ 14%
2015 Top 20 nano J. ~ 12%
2015 All journals ~ 5.2%
2015 USPTO patents ~ 2.5%
Est. Market / US GDP: 2014 ~ 2% ; 2015 ~ 2.6% ; 2020 ~ 7% (if 25% market growth rate)MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Nanotechnology penetration in economy(Nano 2020 study)
U.S. 2000 2010 Est. in 2020
Semiconductor industry 0 60% 100%
New nanostructured catalysts 0 ~ 35% ~ 50%
Pharmaceutics 0 ~ 15% ~ 50%
Wood 0 0 ~ 20%
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
U.S.: Return on Annual Federal Investment in Nanotechnology R&D (2014)
* The corresponding R&D input was about 10 times smaller ten years ago, while the effects are measured now
** Estimated taxes 20%
$1.8B* NNI +states R&D
~ $4.0B industry R&D
$Bindustry operating cost
~$370B** Final Products
~740,000 Jobs***
~$74B Taxes
~$4.0B industry R&D*** Est. $500,000/ year/ job
Use NSF and Lux Research dataMC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Conceptualization of “Nanomanufacturing” and “Digital Technology” megatrends (S-curves)
(GAO-14-181SP Forum on Nanomanufacturing, Report to Congress, 2014)
- A general purpose technology- Could eventually match or
outstrip the digital revolutionin terms of economic and societal impact once have been prepared the people, methods & infrastructure
~ 20102014
~ 2% of GDP in US ( est. ~$400B, ~ 40% ann. rate in 20011-2014, Lux Research)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Twelve global trends to 2020 10 year perspective, www.wtec.org/nano2/
• Theory, modeling & simulation: x1000 faster, essential design• “Direct” measurements – x6000 brighter, accelerate R&D&use• A shift from “passive” to “active” nanostructures/nanosystems• Nanosystems- some self powered,self repairing, dynamic, APM• Penetration of nanotechnology in industry - toward mass use;
catalysts, electronics; innovation– platforms, consortia• Nano-EHS – more predictive, integrated with nanobio & env.• Personalized nanomedicine - from monitoring to treatment• Photonics, electronics, magnetics – new integrated capabilities• Energy photosynthesis, storage use – solar economic • Enabling and integrating with new areas – bio, info, cognition• Earlier preparing nanotechnology workers – system integration• Governance of nano for societal benefit - institutionalization
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Workshop (NSF, 2001): “Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nano-Bio-Information-Cognitive”
NBIC: Synergistic combination of four foundational emerging fields from their basic elements (atoms, bits, genes, and neurons) up and using similar system architecture concepts, for common core goals such as learning, productivity & aging
On this basis: 20 visionary scenarios for 20 years ahead
II. Nano-Bio-Info-CognitiveConverging Technologies
(December 2001 -)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
NanobiomedicineNanobiotechnologySynthetic biology; epigeneticsBio-photonics; Microbiome;…
Neuromorphic engng.Synapses to mindSmart environments,Cogno aid devices ..
NanobioinformaticsDNA computingProteomics, ….
Brain simulationCyber networkingPersonalized education..
Nanotechnology Spin-offs : Nanophotonics, plasmonics, materials genome, mesoscale S&E, metamaterials, nanofluidics, carbon electronics, nanosustainability, wood fibers, DNA NT, ..
Spin-offs
Spin-offs
Spin-offs
Spin-offs
Information Technology Spin-offs: Large databases, cyber-physical-social infrastructure, Internet of Things, connected sensorial systems, topical computer-aided design, cyber networks, ...
II. Emergence & divergence of foundational N B I CRe
-com
bine
Ref: 1: Roco & Bainbridge 2013
National Robotics Initiative
InfoCogno Bio
Nano
National Nanotechnology Initiative(nano.gov) (with coordinating office)
Materials Genome
BRAIN Initiative(whitehouse.gov/share/brain-initiative)
National Information Technology R&D(nitrd.gov)(with coordinating office)
Biomedical /Health focus
National Strategic Computing Initiative
Converging foundational technologies (NBIC) leads to II. U.S. emerging S&T initiatives
Ref 9: Roco, “NBIC”, in Handbook of S&T Convergence, 2015
Big Data
NNI Grand Challenges
Brain
–like
Com
putin
g; S
mart
syste
ms
Precision Med
Photonics
Biologycentered
Microbiome
Artificial Intelligence
Genome(s)
OSTP
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Architecture, Life, Human-technology
II. NBICExamples initiatives in 2016
Spin-offs enabled by NBIC (in U.S.)• National Nanotechnology Initiative (Brain-Inspired Computation)• National Information Technology R&D (NSCI, Supercomputing)• Human health; Precision Medicine; Microbiome Initiative • BRAIN Initiative (also international)In Core NBIC system:- Requirements for life- DNA control and implications- Human-technology frontier - Digital society and universal big data
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Nature (2002): “Futurists predict body swaps for planet hops”
NATURE|VOL 418 | 25 JULY 2002 |www.nature.com/nature
“Direct brain-to-brain communication and the transfer of minds between bodies seem more like the stuff of Hollywood movies than of government reports — but these are among the advances forecast in a recent report by the US National Science Foundation and Department of Commerce. “Improving human performance has been a dream for centuries,” says Mihail Roco, chairman of the government-funded National Nanotechnology Initiative, and lead author of the study. … the report — Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance, released on 8 July — says that the convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, computer science and cognitive science may help to break those limits in the next 20 years.”
“Big Data”Data Analytics
High-PerformanceModelingAnd Simulation
Large ScaleData Driven
ModelingAnd Simulation
Data
Inte
nsity
Computational Intensity
Aspirations for Convergence
National Strategic Computing Initiative: Convergent Computing Trends
NBIC2
Personalized
PreventativeParticipatory
Predictive
• Advance cancer detection and treatment w/ reduced side effects• Health data analysis and delivery for real-time health monitoring • Regenerative medicine and advanced prosthetics• Next generation vaccines• Wellness-focused: distributed P4 medicine
Human Health and Physical PotentialGoals Enabled by Convergence
CKTS, 2013MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
United States (2013- )• Federal agencies: NSF, NIH,
DARPA, FDA• Private partners: Allen Institute for
Brain Science, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Kavli Foundation
BRAIN Initiative
NSF
International Brain Initiative, United Nations (19 Sept. 2016 - )
EU: Human Brain ProjectCanada: CBRAINJapan, China brain projects
Glasser et al 2016
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
What are the indispensable requirements for Life?- Convergence of Chemistry, Synthetic Biology, Nanotechnology, Philosophy, … -
What are:• The physical rules for cell assembly?• The minimum genome required to
sustain life?• The interrelationships of genome and
phenome?• The environmental applications and
implications of synthetic biology?
MembraneEncapsulation
Information Stability
RNA World
DNA
Pre-biotic Chemistry
O2 from Photosynthesis
Ocean
Land
The Living Environment
UC CEIN Predictive Toxicological Platforms and HTSNanomaterial libraries High throughput screening
(adverse outcome pathway or AOP based)
Tier 2Select animal & organism
testing(short-terms protocols that
reflect the In vitro AOP)
Tier 1Compare Rank
Prioritize
RapidHigh volume
Tiered hazard/risk assessment &exposure-based decision analysis for: Safe implementation, Regulatory decisions, Reduced animal use, Reduced Tier 3 testing, Establishing exposure limits, Structure-activity analysis, Safer design
Cells, bacteria, yeasts, zebrafish
embryos
Similar behavior(Cluster)
Computational ranking/ modeling/ predictions
In vivo hazard ranking and prediction testing
Compositionsmetals, metal oxides,CNTs, graphene, silica,
quantum dots, etc
Combinatorial propertiessize, shape, aspect ratio,
dissolution, band gap, charge,functionalities, coatings etc
New Commercial nanoproductsprofiled against a grid of library
materials or data repository
Andre Nel et al., UCLA
RISK
Hazard
NanoparticleProperties
SystemPropertiesSocial Properties
Functional Assays
Exposure
• Measurement in prescribed system
• Quantifies a meaningful process for exposure, hazard or both
Example of convergent approach in nano-EHS (risk estimation, CEINT, Duke University)
Biouptake / System Transfer
Mark Wiesner et al., Duke U.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Number of NBIC Awards at NSF (1987-2015)Search by combined keywords
About 5% of total NSF new awards since 2009
Fiscal Year
Num
ber
of n
ew N
BIC
aw
ards
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Twelve challenging ideas from 2001 NBIC Report for 2030 that are reality or in development in 2015• Hierarchically interconnected world – a reality in 2015• Non intrusive brain-to-brain communication – accepted• Computer Personal advisor – as laptop or cell – at beginning • Brain machine and brain robotics systems – in development• From physics/chemistry to mind and education – in BRAIN R&D• Centers of leaning: for brain to education methods – in function• Regenerative medicine, Gene editing, 3-D print parts - accepted• Nano-info-biomedical developments• Proteases activated by brain - done• Education earlier for NBIC - modules• Intelligent environments – in development• ELSI community – organized in 2013
MC Roco, July 6 2016 MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Foundational tools – NBIC+
Earth scale platform
Human scale &quality of life
Innovative & responsible governance- System behavior
For societal benefit, human development
Societal values and needs
The conductor suggests societal governance of K&T converging platforms for societal benefit.
Ref: 6: “Convergence of knowledge, technology and society: Beyond NBIC” 2013
Human activity system
Societal scale platform
III. Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society
Innovation circuit
Syste
m fee
dbac
k
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Convergence of Knowledge and Technology (CKTS) leads to III. U.S. global society-oriented initiatives
Societal
Earth Human
NBIC+
SunShot GC (DOE..)
Asteroid GC (NASA..)
Global Change Research Program(Global Change.gov) (with coord office)
Advanced manufacturing: National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI)
(http://www.manufacturing.gov/nnmi) (with program office)
Smart and Connected Communities
Strategy for Arctic Region
STEAM EducationInitiative (NSF, DoEd)
(Ref 8: “Principles and methods that facilitate convergence”)
Climate Action Plan Innovation
Space Station (NASA..)
Aging Population
Productivity, Sustainability, Equality, Safe
I-Corps
OSTP
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
III. Global Society: Examples of initiatives in 2016
Spin-offs enabled by CKTS (in U.S.)• Global Change: Clean Energy• The National Network for Manufacturing Innovation• STEAM Education• Smart and Connected CommunitiesIn CKTS core system- Origin of Universe and Earth evolution- Societal sustainability and stability - Production and wellness convergence- Morality aspects (conflict resolution, inequalities, safety)
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
The National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI) – 7 year plans
Experiment in ecosystem establishment in “valley of death” All the institutes will deal with nanotechnology to some extent Current list - 10 institutes (http://manufacturing.gov/ ):
• National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (DoD/DOE) FY12• Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation (DoD) FY14• Lightweight and Modern Metals Manufacturing (DoD) FY14• Next Generation Power Electronics Manufacturing (DOE) FY14• Clean Energy Manufacturing Innovation Institute for Composites
Materials and Structures (DOE) FY15• Photonics (DoD) FY15• Hybrid Flexible Electronics (DoD) FY15• Revolutionary Fibers and Textiles (DoD) FY16• Two open competition centers (NIST) FY16-17
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Global Action Possibilities • International Grand Challenges: Nano, Brain, others
• An international convergence CKTS network
• Government coordination needed: “science of convergence”, “convergence technology platforms”, “collaborative culture”
• Production- , cognition-, biomedicine- current convergence
• Cross-domain programs in universities & funding agencies
• Principles of convergence & culture for conflict resolution
• OECD new committee on convergence created in 2014MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
NSF/NNI and International Perspective
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
AK - $0
$1.21$1.73
HI - $0.74
$2.22$1.12
$1.89 $3.44
$0.42 $0.89
$1.50
------MA - $4.67
$1.40
------MD - $2.17
$0.11
$2.23
$1.73
$2.44
$4.63
$1.80
$1.92
$1.41
$7.48
$1.78
------NH - $1.86
------------------NJ - $1.57
$3.65
$0.25
$4.12
$1.64
$1.11
$2.41
$6.00
PR - $0.58
$2.34
-------RI - $3.48
$3.01
$4.24
$0.95
$1.53
$2.06$3.80
---------------------VT - $1.52
$2.40
$1.95
$6.80$1.24
$0.00
---------CT - $3.21
----------------------DC - $7.14------------DE - $9.8
$0.81
Per Capita NEW FY16 Nano$<= 1.11 1.11 - 1.531.53 - 1.92 1.92 - 2.412.41 - 4.12 4.12 - 9.8
AK 0; AL 1.21; AR 1.4; AZ 1.78; CA 2.34; CO 6.80; CT 3.21; DC 7.14; DE 9.80; FL 0.81; GA 1.73; HI 0.74; IA 2.22; ID 1.12; IL 1.89; IN 3.44; KS 0.42; KY 0.89; LA 1.50; MA 4.67; MD 2.17; ME 0.11; MI 2.23; MN 1.73; MO 2.44; MS 4.63; MT 1.80; NC 1.92; ND 1.41; NE 7.48; NH 1.86; NJ 1.57; NM 3.65; NV 0.25; NY 4.12; OH 1.64; OK 1.11; OR 2.41; PA 6.0; PR 0.58; RI 3.48; SC 3.01; SD 4.24; TN 0.95; TX 1.53; UT 2.06; VA 3.8; VT 1.52; WA 2.4; WI 1.95; WV 1.24; WY 0
NSF’s NSE amount for NEW awards per capita, by state
FY 2016: U.S. average amount = $2.41 / capita
#1 DE $9.8/capita in 2016
Rank
FY 16 NEWAmt.
1 DE2 DC3 NE4 PA5 MA6 MS
AK - $5.34
$34.11$22.18
HI - $3.01
$23.90$15.88
$48.96 $43.10
$23.23 $17.38
$17.27
------MA - $128.49
$29.91
------MD - $46.46
$9.34
$26.99
$34.47
$16.38
$23.83
$24.72
$34.49
$32.60
$58.68
$35.69
------NH - $24.16
------------------NJ - $27.58
$33.35
$7.58
$62.88
$29.30
$18.41
$27.65
$53.82
PR - $18.48
$38.67
-------RI - $86.49
$21.76
$45.86
$16.02
$21.84
$30.02$28.00
------------------VT - $21.35
$26.25
$44.48
$60.10$24.11
$21.37
---------CT - $36.19
----------------------DC - $115.24------------DE - $78.49
$12.28
PerCap NEW NANO$ FY00-16<= 17.27 17.27 - 23.2323.23 - 27.65 27.65 - 34.4734.47 - 48.96 48.96 - 128.5
AK 5.34; AL 34.11; AR 29.91; AZ 35.69; CA 38.67; CO 60.1; CT 36.19; DC 115.24; DE 78.49; FL 12.28; GA 22.18; HI 3.01; IA 23.9; ID 15.88; IL 48.96; IN 43.1; KS 23.23; KY 17.38; LA 17.27; MA 128.49; MD 46.46; ME 9.34; MI 26.99; MN 34.47; MO 16.38; MS 23.83; MT 24.72; NC 34.49; ND 32.6; NE 58.68; NH 24.16; NJ 27.58; NM 33.35; NV 7.58; NY 62.88; OH 29.3; OK 18.41; OR 27.65; PA 53.82; PR 18.48; RI 86.49; SC 21.76; SD 45.86; TN 16.02; TX 21.84; UT 30.02; VA 28; VT 21.35; WA 26.25; WI 44.48; WV 24.11; WY 21.37
NSF’s NS&E amount new awards per capitaFYs 2000 - 2016: U.S. average amount ~ $35 / capita
2015: Over 6,000 active awards(abstracts on www.nsf.gov/nano)
Rank
FY 2000-2016 NEWAmt.
1 MA2 DC3 RI4 DE5 NY6 CO
#1 MA $128.49/capita (2000-2016)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,00040,00042,00044,00046,00048,00050,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
# o
f pu
blic
atio
ns
USAJapanEU27P.R. ChinaKorea
Nanotechnology publications in the WoS: 1990 - 2015“Title-abstract” search for nanotechnology by keywords for six regions
(update of NANO2, Fig 1 (Ref. 3) using the method described in (Ref. 6))
2000 - 2015 Worldwide annual growth rate ~ 16%
U.S./World ~ 29.5%
in 2001-2005 U.S./World~ 21% in 2015
Rapid, uneven growth per countriesMC. Roco, Nov 10 2016
61* Started to use Combined Keywords from 2014
U.S. leads with about 66% (at least one author from US)
Five countries’ contributions to Top 3 Journals (Nature, Science, PNAS) in 2015, by individual journals
USA
Germany
MC. Roco, Dec 9 2016
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USAJapanP.R. ChinaGermanyFranceKorea
Global revenue from nano-enabled products by sector (Lux Research, updated in January 2016) (US / World ~ 32%)
Sector (all in US$ Billion)
2012 (survey)
2013 (survey)
2014 (survey)
Building materials $28.837 $44.564 $66.891
Materials & manufacturing $457.936 $625.508 $826.704
Electronics & IT $265.306 $377.631 $527.137
Healthcare & life sciences $74.742 $103,350 $139,597
Energy & Environment $25,668 $38.478 $55.737
Total (world) $853 $1,190 $1,616Annual Increase Rate (%) 40% 36%
MC. Roco, Nov 10 2016
Other NSF specific initiative in 2016-
• Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems
• Risk and Resilience• Smart and Connected Communities• Clean Energy Technology• Cyber-Enabled Materials, Manufacturing, and Smart
Systems - Advanced Manufacturing• Innovation Corps (I-Corps)
MC. Roco, Nov 10 2016
Innovations for Food, Energy, andWater Systems
Quantitative and computational modeling
Real-time, cyber-enabled interfaces
Innovative solutions to critical FEWproblems
Workforce and education
Illustration credit: Nicolle R. Fuller, Sayo-Art LLC
NSF/ENG
10 big ideas (NSF, 2016-)
• Understanding the Rules of Life: Predicting Phenotype• Work at the Human-Technology Frontier: Shaping the Future• Windows on the Universe: The Era of Multi-messenger Astrophysics• Navigating the New Arctic• Harnessing Data for 21st Century Science and Engineering• The Quantum Leap: Leading the Next Quantum Revolution
• Growing Convergent Research and Education at NSF• NSF INCLUDES: Enhancing Science and Engineering through Diversity• Mid-scale Research Infrastructure• NSF 2050: The Integrative Foundational Fund
MC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Several sustainability challenges
• Are renewable water/energy/food/materials sources sufficient?• Thermonuclear energy will be controlled, economically used?• New technology convergence platforms will be sustainable?• How “smart systems” (incl. AI, NBIC) will change sustainability• DNA control and hybrid nanobiodevices will have safe
regulations and suitable organizations? Life security.• International collaboration and competition: NBIC production
(OECD), US-EU collaboration, databases, labeling
Others topics to be discussed in the following SNO PanelsMC Roco, Nov 10 2016
Related publications1. “Coherence and Divergence of Megatrends in Science and Engineering”
(Roco, JNR, 2002)2. “Nanotechnology: Convergence with Modern Biology and Medicine”,
(Roco, Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 2003) 3. NANO1: “Nanotechnology research directions: Vision for the next decade”
(Roco, Williams & Alivisatos, WH, 1999, also Springer, 316p, 2000)4. NANO 2020: “Nanotechnology research directions for societal needs in
2020” (Roco, Mirkin & Hersam, Springer, 690p, 2011a)5. NBIC: “Converging technologies for improving human performance: nano-
bio-info-cognition” (Roco & Bainbridge, Springer, 468p, 2003)6. CKTS 2030: “Convergence of knowledge, technology and society:
Beyond NBIC” (Roco, Bainbridge, Tonn & Whitesides; Springer, 604p, 2013b) 7. The new world of discovery, invention, and innovation: convergence of
knowledge, technology and society” (Roco & Bainbridge, JNR 2013a, 15)8. “Principles and methods that facilitate convergence” (Roco, Springer
Reference, Handbook of Science and Technology Convergence, 2015) 9. HSTC: “Handbook of Science and Technology Convergence”
(Bainbridge & Roco, 2016)
(5 re
ports
with
R&D
reco
mm
enda
tions
for 2
020)