Plantation Intelligence

Plantation Intelligence® Analysis of Commercial Data for Yield

and Fertilizer Management in Oil Palm

XVIII Conferencia Internacional Sobre Palma de Aceite 18th International Oil Palm Conference

Oberthür, Chua, Cook, Donough, Cock, Lim, Mohanaraj, Rachel & Kam

22 al 25 de Septiembre de 2015 Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

1Conceptual Background

Cook et al. Better Crops 97, 17 - 20 (2013) !OberthÜr et al.

18th International Oil Palm Conference. Cartagena de las indias Cartagena de las indias

IPNI 4R Nutrient Stewardship ®



Decision Making Uncertainty

Complex interactions in an

agronomic system render outcomes of any management

decision

Uncertain

®

STRUCTURAL Uncertainty from internal factors that influence fertilizer efficiency, e.g. EFB applications

TRANSLATIONAL Uncertainty from external factors that reduce fertilizer performance, e.g. harvest, mill and transport efficiency

TEMPORAL Uncertainty about

timing of fertilizer applications, e.g.

drought interference

METRIC Uncertainty about rate & placement of

fertilizer to support a yield target



Decision Making Uncertainty

Example:

ROI in Fertilizer

®

10

15

5

30

25

20

40

35

15 45 25 35 5 10 20 30 40

45

50

55

Harvest Man days

Fres

h Fr

uit B

unch

Yie

ld in

t pe

r ha

2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

OberthÜr et al. 18th International Oil Palm Conference. Cartagena de las indias

Cartagena de las indias

Decision Making Uncertainty ®

10

15

5

30

25

20

40

35

15 45 25 35 5 10 20 30 40

45

50

55

Expected yield level

Fres

h Fr

uit B

unch

Yie

ld in

t pe

r ha

2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Man days




10

15

5

30

25

20

40

35

15 45 25 35 5 10 20 30 40

45

50

55

Fruit is grown but not harvested

Only with enough labor, all fruit is harvested

Expected yield level

Fres

h Fr

uit B

unch

Yie

ld in

t pe

r ha

2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Man days






VS.

Yield Taken

Yield Made EXPECTATION

REALITY


Hans Peter Luhn, IBM Journal, 1958 A Business Intelligence System

http://www.bireports.co.uk/blog/tag/hans-peter-luhn/!

(business) intelligence is “the ability to apprehend the interrelationships of presented facts in such a way as to guide action towards a desired goal.”



Business Intelligence ®

http://www.bireports.co.uk/blog/tag/hans-peter-luhn/!



Business Intelligence ®

System is Monitored in Extraordinary Detail



Plantation Intelligence® ®

Devise specific

performance intervention

options (EVALUATE)

Organize existing

performance data

(VISUALIZE)

Quantify performance change for

management (DECIDE)

Generate performance

indicators and metrics

(ANALYSE)



Plantation Intelligence®

Exogenous

Exogenous

®




An adap've learning process based on the analysis of

planta'on data

®

2Application Examples



Current Protocols

Yield Age Profiling

Naïve Gross Margins

Yield Trends Yield Soil Climate Interactions

Yield Labor Interactions

Yield Soil Interactions

Fertilizer Response Analyses 7

®

0

40

30

20

50

60

3 4 11 9 7 5 13 14 15

10

6 8 10 12 TREEAGE

FFB

(t/ha

)

Yield Age Profiling ®

TREEAGE 0

40

30

20

50

60

10

FFB

(t/ha

)

3 4 11 9 7 5 13 14 6 8 10 12

Yield Age Profiling

15

®

TREEAGE

PALMSIM Model Agricultural Systems, 131:1-10 (2014) The Planter, 91: 81-96 (2015)

0

40

30

20

50

60

10

FFB

(t/ha

)

3 4 11 9 7 5 13 14 6 8 10 12

Yield Benchmarking

15

1. Average yield profile mirrors that of potential

2. Yield gap between average and potential

3. Blocks approach yield potential

4. Blocks above potential require further assessment

®

Aver

age

naïve

gro

ss m

argi

n in

USD

per

hec

tare

Individual Block 0

4000

3000

2000

5000

1000

3500

2500

1500

4500

5500

500

Naïve Gross Margins

Cost = 500 $US per ha per year “i.e. a favorable benchmark”

®

Aver

age

naïve

gro

ss m

argi

n in

USD

per

hec

tare

Individual Block 0

4000

3000

2000

5000

1000

3500

2500

1500

4500

5500

500

Naïve Gross Margins ®

Aver

age

naïve

gro

ss m

argi

n in

USD

per

hec

tare

Individual Block 0

4000

3000

2000

5000

1000

3500

2500

1500

4500

5500

500

Naïve Gross Margins ®

3Response to Fertilizer

NPKMg

8~10 BREAK–EVEN

kg kg

point

fresh fruit bunches per kg nutrients



Return on Investment ®

2.5 years to 0.5 year before harvest Sum of NPKMg



Return on Investment

NPKMg

®

20

15

10

25

30

100 300 1100 900 700 500

5

600 800 1000 1200

NPKMg3yW_IN

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare 35

Steep Ascent : Palm age from 3-5

200 400

25

20

15

30

35

10

40

300 400 800 700 600 500 550 650 750 850 350 450

45

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare

NPKMg3yW_IN

y=22.233 + (0.005*x) y=12.908 + (0.011*x)

Plateau : Palm age from 6-13



Tree Age Effects ®

10

34

30

26

22

18

14

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare

NPKMg3yW_IN

12

32

28

24

20

16



Annual Response 2012

360 400 640 600 560 520 480 440 340 380 620 580 540 500 460 420 680 660

®

10

34

30

26

22

18

14

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare

NPKMg3yW_IN

12

32

28

24

20

16




360 400 640 600 560 520 480 440 340 380 620 580 540 500 460 420 680 660

y=21.142 + (-0.003*x)

y=32.489 + (-0.015*x) y=14.481 + (0.024*x)

y=36.217 + (-0.022*x)

SMG A SMG B SMG C SMG D

®

NPKMg3yW_IN




8

30

26

22

18

14

12

32

28

24

20

16

10

34

360 400 600 560 520 480 440 340 380 620 580 540 500 460 420

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare

®

NPKMg3yW_IN




8

30

26

22

18

14

12

32

28

24

20

16

10

34

360 400 600 560 520 480 440 340 380 620 580 540 500 460 420

Fres

h fru

it bu

nche

s in

tons

per

hec

tare

y=3.256 + (0.036*x)

y=50.634 + (-0.054*x) y=13.470 + (0.025*x) y=13.972 + (0.025*x)

SMG A SMG B SMG C SMG D

®



Yield Response (t FFB ha y) = F1 (PV1, PV2, … PVN, PVNPKMg) Yield Response (t FFB ha y) = F2 (PV1, PV2, … PVN) Response Contrast (t FFB ha y) = F2 – F1

Visualizing Local Response

‘Contrast Method’

®

2013 2014




1.40 0.00

-0.75

Contrast in t FFB per ha per year relative to yield

without fertilizer

®

2013 2014




1.40 0.00

-0.75

Contrast in t FFB per ha per year relative to yield

without fertilizer

®

Measure Performance


Business Opportunity

PALMSIM Model

Continuous Improvement

Best Management Practices

Estate Networking

The Benchmark Club



Systems Solutions ®

4WA

IPNI Southeast Asia Program

XVIII Conferencia Internacional Sobre PALMA DE ACEITE

18th International Oil Palm Conference

22 al 25 de Septiembre de 2015 Cartagena de las Indias, Colombia

Documents

Plantation Intelligence