Planning, Supply Chain & Optimization Day 2

Planning, Supply Chain & Optimization – Day 2

SIG Leaders: Bill Boezinger (Walt Disney), Nick Oswald (Best Buy)

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AgendaJoint Planning, Supply Chain & Optimization SIG

Tuesday (P&O Emphasis) Wednesday (SC Emphasis)

Breakfast / Registration (8am)

Morning Session (9am)

• Kick Off / Introduction & Goals

• Roadmap

• Modern Fulfillment Planning

• Attendee Nominated Discussion #1

Lunch (12:15pm)

Breakfast / Registration (8am)

Morning Session (9am)

• Kick Off / Introduction & Goals

• Roundtable: Exception-driven Processes

• MIT Webcast Forecasting & Price Optimization (10am)

• Science in Supply Chain

Lunch (12:15pm)

Afternoon Session (1:15pm)

• Cloud Engagement

• Attendee Nominated Discussion #2

• Prioritization & Strategy Exercise

• Summarize / Wrap-up

Dinner – Hell’s Kitchen (6:30pm)

Afternoon Session (1:15pm)

• Maximizing Forecast Accuracy

• Roundtable: Network Optimization & Product Flows

• Roundtable: Alternate Store Concepts & Fulfillment Strategies

• Summarize / Wrap-up

Dinner - The News Room (6:30pm)


Roundtable: Exception-driven Processes

4


Setup for DiscussionForecasting Process Overview

Model New Items & Stores

Estimate Historical Demand

Forecast Baseline Demand

Incorporate Causality

Approve Forecasts

Maximizing productivity through highly automated and exception driven processes

New Item Alert

Causal Peaks Alert

Forecast versus Recent Sales Alert

Current Forecast versus Last Approved Forecast

Forecast versus Last Year Sales


Conversation Starters

What are your key exception-driven processes?

How are you prioritizing and guiding your users?

6


Webcast: Forecasting & Price Optimization

7

Copyright © 2017, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. | 8


Open Discussion

9


Science in Supply Chain

10


Replenishment OptimizationOverview

11

Business Objectives(i.e. Sales / Inventory Trade-off)

Business Constraints(e.g. Lead Time, Order Frequency, Service Level, Space)

Item / Location ReplenishmentMethod

ReplenishmentParameters

French Roast / A Dynamic 96%

Breakfast Roast / A

Dynamic 99%

Decaf / A Dynamic 95%

… … …

Trade-off Curves

(e.g. Service Level / Inventory Units)

Optimized Replenishment Parameters


Demonstration


Science in Supply Chain

IWInnovation Workbench

CDTCustomer Decision

Trees

AE / ABAttribute Extraction / Attribute Binning

CSCustomer

Segmentation

AC Advanced Clustering

DTDemand

Transference

RDFRetail Demand

Forecasting

Predictive Analytics

SPOSize Profile & Pre-pack Optimization

Optimize Allocations & Operations

ROReplenishment Optimization

Optimize Inventory Levels

PMOPromotion & Markdown

Optimization

OOOffer Optimization

Inventory Control What Else?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiX2qvfrNzKAhUT8WMKHdYsB8EQjRwIBw&url=https://espin086.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/clustering-to-improve-merchandise-allocation-testing-and-forecasting-an-application-of-the-k-medians-algorithm/&psig=AFQjCNGJNkY7sN3vWh8Spji5bjFknZ1CyA&ust=1454614846161408

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiX2qvfrNzKAhUT8WMKHdYsB8EQjRwIBw&url=https://espin086.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/clustering-to-improve-merchandise-allocation-testing-and-forecasting-an-application-of-the-k-medians-algorithm/&psig=AFQjCNGJNkY7sN3vWh8Spji5bjFknZ1CyA&ust=1454614846161408

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCLfR34jShskCFUPjYwodvK4Adg&url=http://www.dynamic-concepts.nl/en/segmentation/&bvm=bv.106923889,d.cGc&psig=AFQjCNGX--x-WWDHKB7oe4PY2jdSEICLpQ&ust=1447271861459494

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCLfR34jShskCFUPjYwodvK4Adg&url=http://www.dynamic-concepts.nl/en/segmentation/&bvm=bv.106923889,d.cGc&psig=AFQjCNGX--x-WWDHKB7oe4PY2jdSEICLpQ&ust=1447271861459494



Where are leveraging Data Science within your Supply Chain?

Where are you seeing the most value?

Where do you see the most opportunity?

14


Maximizing Forecasting Accuracy

15


Our Approach:

Maximize Forecast Accuracy

With RDF Cloud Service, we distilled 15+ years of forecasting experience across 160+ retailers worldwide into

an offering that combines best-fit science and exceptive-driven

processes with the agility of our extensible cloud platform.

Your Success:

Future Proof Investment

Experience high speed to value with accelerated SaaS delivery offerings,

stay on the cutting edge of forecasting science and get the most

for your team.

Introducing Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud ServiceIndustry-leading Predictive Analytics


Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud ServiceEmpowering Commerce with Predictive Analytics

• Centralizes demand forecasts for the enterprise

• Reflects the unique demand drivers of the retailer, such as pricing and promotions

• Adapts to recent trends, seasonality, out-of-stocks and promotions

• Maximizes accuracy through large scale statistics, optimization and machine learning retail science methods

• Simplifies forecast management through high-automation and exception-driven processes

• Provides extensibility around core analytical processes, allowing the science to evolve with retailer-specific tailored processes.


RDF Cloud Service Solution ContextCentralizing Forecasts for the Enterprise

18

OptimizationExecution Planning

Advanced Inventory Planning

(AIP)

Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud Service

(RDF - CS)

Replenishment(RMS)

AllocationRegular Price Optimization

(RPO)

Replenishment Optimization

(RO)

Assortment Planning & Optimization

(APO)

Item Planning(IP)

Insights

Retail Insights Vendor Collaboration

External Collaboration


Our ApproachBuilt on a Heritage of Success & Innovation

v9 – v13.2 v13.3 – v13.4 v14.0 – v14.1 v15 v16

2002 – 2010 2011 – 2012 2013 - 2014 2015 2016

• Baseline Forecasting• Bayesian Forecasting• Promotional Forecasting• Historical Demand

Estimation• Promotional Event Effects• Regular Price Effects• Configurable Science

• Cross-promotional Effects• Promotional Price Effects• Flexible Science• RPAS Fusion Client

Support

• Returns Forecasting• Overlapping Promotion

Effects• Demand Transference

• RDF Cloud Service Launch• Flexible Source Level

Groupings• Aggregate Causal

Modelling• Attribute-based New Item

Forecasting• Expanded Short Lifecycle

Forecasting

• Exception-drivenProcesses

• Streamlined New-item Forecasting

• Extensible SaaS

• Configurable Platform• Rule-centric Calculation

Engine• Scalable Oracle B-tree

Multi-dimensional DB• Internationalization /

Translation Support

• RPAS Fusion UI• Deploy to Cloud of Your

Choice

• Hybrid StorageArchitecture / Real-time Integration

• Visual Planning

• Visual Assortment / Drag & Drop

• Mobile Support• Online Administration

Tools • SaaS Launch • Performance

Enhancements

• Self-service Expansion• Real-time Dynamic

Hierarchies


Best-fit Science

Your data has potential and our science reaches its

highest point. Forecasting is complex and no single tool is

best for every job. Our forecasting science pulls

from statistics, optimization and machine learning disciplines as each job

requires.

Exception-Driven Processes

Your business needs accurate forecasts. Your

team has limited time. You need an efficient process that provides exceptional results. We focus users

where it counts with exception-driven processes.

Extensible SaaS

Science should reflect your reality. Process should

reflect your priorities. You need the Stability of SaaS

and the Agility of Extensibility. You need

Extensible SaaS.

We welcome change … because we can.

Our ApproachMaximizing Forecast Accuracy

Get the Most from Your Data

Get the Most from Your Team

Get the Most for Your Business

Copyright © 2017 Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. |

Ready for change?

With partner implementation offerings starting from 8-12 weeks, high speed to value can be

the cornerstone of your business case

Want the best today … and tomorrow?

With RDF Cloud Service, you are all set. Maximize

your forecast accuracytoday and stay on the

cutting edge of forecasting science with continuous improvements to your

Cloud Service.

Want to get the most for your team?

Get the most from RDF Cloud Service. Equip your

team with our comprehensive Retail

Learning Subscription and Documentation Library.

Your SuccessFuture Proof Investment

Ready Set Go


Cloud Service Introduction and Overview

Day in the Life

Introduction to Forecasting

Forecasting Challenges and Solutions

Business Process, Roles and Responsibilities

Forecasting Techniques

Source Level Forecasting

Short Lifecycle Forecasting Methods

AutoES Forecasting Method

Short Lifecycle Forecasting Methods

Causal Forecasting

Architecture Overview

Data Feeds and Preprocessing Concepts

Data Feeds and Processing Demo

Forecasting Returns

53 Week Calendar


Open Discussion


Roundtable: Network Optimization & Product Flows

24



Where do you leverage ‘supply chain’ data as an input?

How do you evaluate and balance speed, cost to serve, and cost to carry?

What roles participate in S&OP evaluations today? In the future?

In what ways does technology support E2E supply chain optimization?

26


Roundtable: Alternate Store Concepts & Fulfillment Strategies

27

Copyright © 2017, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. | 28

TransferBuy In Store, Return to Store

Buy Online, Return to Store

Future State of Customer JourneysOmni-Channel Retailing



What types of concepts do you support?

How do you track, manage, and move inventory across concepts/channels?

What technology components do you rely on to plan & execute the strategy?

To what extent is ‘planning’ and ‘execution’ considered for profitability purposes?

29


Summarize / Wrap-up

30

Documents

Planning, Supply Chain & Optimization Day 2