PLANNING OF DROUGHT

MANAGEMENT

-KONYA BASIN CASE STUDY-

REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER

AFFAIRS GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF WATER MANAGEMENT

Cancun, 2017

OUTLINE

• Drought Concept and Definitions

• Konya Basin

• Methodology and Approach

– Climate Model

– Drought Analyses

– Hydrological Studies

• Findings

– Effects of Climate Change

– Expected Changes in Water Budget

– Sectoral Vulnerability

• Drought Management Plan

(2/44)

(3/44)

Drought Concept and Definitions

DROUGHT AS A NATURAL DISASTER

(4/44)

Definition (UNCCD,1994):

Drought means the naturally occurring phenomenon that

exists when;

Precipitation has been significantly below long term

average of recorded levels which;

Adversely affects water, soil

and living creatures,

Causes serious hydrological

imbalances,

OCCURRENCE OF DROUGHTS

(5/44)

Precipitation Deficiency High Temperature, Low

Relative Humidity

Reduced Infiltration, Runoff Increase in Evaporation and

Transpiration

Natural Climate

Variability

Soil Water Deficiency

Plant Water Stress, Reduced

Biomass and Yield

Reduced Streamflow, Inflow to

Reservoirs, Lakes, and Ponds

Economic

Impacts

Social

Impacts

Environmental

Impacts

Me

teo

rolo

gic

al

Dro

ug

ht

Ag

ric

ult

ura

l

Dro

ug

ht

Hyd

rolo

gic

al

Dro

ug

ht

Tim

e (

Du

rati

on

)

Adapted From: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, USA

HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS

• Thousands of people died and migrated after the droughts occurred in 1804, 1874-1876, 1928 and 1933.

• 1972-1974, 1989-1990, 1993, 1998-2001, 2006-2008 and 2013 were the recent drought periods of Turkey.

• These droughts caused impacts on food and energy production and restrained access to municipal water in big cities.

(6/32)

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Adıgüzel Barajı-HES Ke er Barajı-HES

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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

(7/44)

In order to minimize and avoid drought impacts

Measures are defined for pre-drought , during drought and post-drought stages.

Measures have to include:

• Actions to increase drought resilience

• Crisis planning during drought events

• Recovery works after drought

PROJECTS

Finished

Ongoing

Planned

(8/44)

(9/44)

Konya Basin

KONYA BASIN

(10/44)

Annual Precipitation (Long term average)

Average (Turkey) = 593 mm

Average (Konya Basin) = 384 mm

(Less than most of the African Countries)

KONYA BASIN

(11/44) Annual Precipitation

250 mm

600 mm

– Aim of the Study:

• Prepare Drought Management Plan for the Konya

Basin on the basis of integrated river basin

management approach.

• Mitigate the prospective drought risks by defining

appropriate measures to be taken before, during

and after droughts.

– Konya Basin Drought Management Plan will be used

by many different institutions related to water.

– Most of which contributed to the studies by

participating to regular meetings as stakeholders.

(12/44)

Main

Stakeholders

of the Project

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

OF KONYA BASIN

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT

(13/44)

Kickoff Meeting

Stakeholder Meetings

Education Programs

Field Studies

(14/44)

Methodology and Approach

PROJECT STAGES AT A GLANCE

(15/44)

DATA COLLECTION

SECTORAL STUDIES

(SENSITIVITY)

HYDROLOGICAL AND

HYDROGEOLOGICAL

STUDIES

SECTORAL

VULNERABILITY

DROUGHT MAPS -

DATABASE

DROUGHT

ANALYSES

CLIMATE CHANGE

PROJECTIONS

DROUGHT

MANAGEMENT PLAN

CLIMATE IS CHANGING

(16/44) Data Source: climate.nasa.gov

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Mean Temperature RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)

(17/44)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Total Precipitation RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)

(18/44)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index

RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days/30 years

(19/44)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY

Precipitation Indices

(20/44)

5 Days Max

Precip.

1 Day

Max

Precip.

Consecutive

Wet days Heavy

Precip.Day Very Heavy

Precip.Day

Consecutive

Dry Days

CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES OF

KONYA BASIN

(21/44)

Regional Climate Models

were run for 2015 – 2050

period.

Temperature, precipitation,

evaporation, etc. estimates

were computed.

Estimates were later used in

hydrologic modeling to

assess runoff, water depth,

groundwater levels and

water budget calculations.

MPI-ESM-MR,

HadGEM2-ES &

GFDL-ESM2M.

RCP 4.5 &

RCP8.5

RegCM 4.3.5

10x10km

DROUGHT ANALYSES

(22/44)

Trend analyses were made to detect possible climate change effects

Konya (17245) station, annual precipitation trend

Konya Basin Mean Annual Precipitaion

Annual precipitation shows a clear decreasing trend.

…

The climate change is already affecting the basin.

DROUGHT ANALYSES

(23/44)

Index

Me

teo

rolo

gic

al

Dro

ug

ht

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral D

rou

gh

t

Hy

dro

log

ica

l

Dro

ug

ht

Cli

ma

too

gic

Dro

ug

ht

Ag

roh

yd

rolo

gic

al

stu

die

s C

lim

ate

Ch

an

ge

Sce

na

rio

s

His

tori

cal

An

aly

sis

Ris

k A

na

lysi

s

Mo

nit

ori

ng

,

Fo

resi

gh

t

Sn

ow

fall

im

po

rta

nt

Normal Precipitation Percentage * * Standardized Precipitation Index * * * Palmer Drought Intensity Index * * * * Palmer Hydrological Drought

Index * *

Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index * Aydeniz Index Surface Water Supply Index * * Erinç Drought Index * * NormalizedVegetation Variation

Index *

Aridity Index * * * *

Drought

analyses were

conducted

using several

different

drought

indices and

indicators.

HYDROLOGICAL STUDIES

(24/44)

Hydro-

Meteorology Hydrology Hydrogeology Modelling Water Budget

HYDROLOGIC MODELLING

(25/44)

Gökgöl Subbasin

Tersakan Lake Subbasin

Kulu Lake Subbasin

(26/44)

Findings

DROUGHT EVENTS

(27/44)

Probability distribution of

Drought Occurrence by

means of PDSI time series

1972-1974 1984-1985

2000-2001 2004-2005

2004-2008 2013

AREAS AFFECTED BY DROUGHTS

(28/44)

Konya Basin (1972-1974)

WATER BUDGET

(29/44)

Sectors GW Used

(hm³)

Cooperatives 1156,4

Public irrigation 2071

Municipal 137,9

Industry 61,3

Total 3426,7

Avg. Precipitation

384 mm

Annual Volume of

Precipitation

19450 hm³

Evapotranspiration

14714 hm³

Annual Runoff

2303 hm³

GW Recharge

2433 hm³

Surface Water

Potantial

2676 hm³

Spring Water

373 hm³

Gross Surface

Water Potantial

2930 hm³

Water transfer

420 hm³

Groundwater

2226 hm³

Gross Renewable

Water Potantial

5156 hm³

Annual Usable Surface

Water

1863 hm³

Annual Usable Water

Potantial

3866 hm³

Annual Usable

GroundWater

2003 hm³

Mevcut Tüketilen Su

183 hm³

Percolation

166 hm³

Mevcut Tüketilen Su

hm³

Total Water Used

Annually

4996 hm³

Currently Used

Groundwater

3427 hm³

Currently Used Surface

Water

1569 hm³

Sub Basin No SW Pot

(hm³)

GW

Pot

(hm³)

Beyşehir 16/1 832 111

Konya 16/2 370 620

Karaman 16/3 375 226

Ereğli-Bor 16/4 215 338

Aksaray 16/5 489 529

Altı eki 16/6 105 86

Cihanbeyli 16/7 145 97

Yukarı-kabakulak

16/8 69 46

Misli 16/9 78 173

Total 2679 2226 (From Göksu River

Basin – Mavi Tünel)

Sectors SW Used

(hm³

DSİ & İÖİ 1446,4

Public irrigation 74,8

Municipal 41,9

Industry 6,1

Total 1569,2

GROUNDWATER BUDGET ESTIMATIONS

FOR DIFFERENT MODELS AND SCENARIOS

(30/44)

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gro

un

dw

ate

r (h

m³/

year)

(31/44)

EXPECTED WATER SHORTAGES

3000 hm³

3500 hm³

4000 hm³

4500 hm³

5000 hm³

5500 hm³

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PROJECTED WATER POTANTIAL vs. WATER REQUIREMENT

WATER SHORTAGE AVAILABLE WATER

SECTORAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

(32/44)

2015 2025 2030 2040 2050

SECTORAL WATER DEMAND

(33/32)

32

27

31

91

31

55

31

19

30

83

30

46

28

66

26

85

25

04

23

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96

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88

98

109

122

136

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2000

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2500

2750

3000

3250

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Wate

r R

eq

uir

em

en

t (h

m³)

GROUND WATER REQUIREMENT

IRRIGATION MUNICIPAL WATER INDUSTRY

Main goal is to decrease ground water demand by

establishing surface water supply projects and utilizing

modern agricultural techniques.

(34/44)

Drought Management Plan

MAIN PRINCIPLES OF KONYA BASIN

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(35/44)

1. Improve Water Availability Monitoring and Drought Impact Assessment

2. Increase Public Awareness and Education

3. Enhance Mechanisms to Provide Water Supplies to Sub-basins That

Are Under Risk of Water Shortage During Droughts

4. Coordinate and Provide Technical Assistance for Planning Efforts for

Development of Water and Soil Resources by Local Administrations,

General and Regional Directorates of Ministries

5. Reduce Water Demand, Encourage Water Use Efficiency and

Conservation of Water Resources and Water Quality

6. Reduce Drought Impacts on Konya Basin’s Economy, People and Ecosystem

7. Develop Interagency Stakeholder Coordination

8. Evaluate Potential Impacts from Climate Change

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(By considering the information obtained from all of the analyses conducted)

Drought Management Plan of Konya Basin provides answers to these questions:

1. What are the actions that should be taken for each stage.

2. Who is responsible from taking the action.

3. How the action should be taken.

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN INCLUDES

MORE THAN 100 DETAILED ACTIONS

(36/44)

DROUGHT STAGES

Mild

Drought

Moderate

Drought

Severe

Drought Normal

Conditions

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(37/44)

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(38/44)

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(39/44)

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

(40/44)

Monitoring

First Stage

Close monitoring

Second Stage

Put required measures into

effect

Third Stage

Put all measures in

Drought Management

Plan into effect

Second Stage

Dismantle unnecessary

measures

First Stage

Dismantle all measures

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT WEB SITE

kuraklikyonetimi.ormansu.gov.tr

(41/44)

BASIN DROUGHT DATABASE

(42/44)

A drought database was developed to set up an effective

management mechanism.

Available at: kuraklikkonya.ormansu.gov.tr

TO SUM UP...

(43/44)

• Essential Elements of Establishing a

Drought Management Plan (1/2)

1. Identification of needs.

2. Stakeholder involvement.

3. Storing and publishing reliable data.

4. Considering possible changes (climate,

population etc.)

5. Analyzing past droughts and drought

characteristics of the study area.

TO SUM UP...

(44/44)

• Essential Elements of Establishing a Drought Management Plan (2/2)

6. Evaluation of water budget and sectoral needs.

7. Identifying sectoral vulnerabilities and priorities.

8. Determination of measures and roles of stakeholders.

9. Establising a management model.

10.Revision of the plan at regular periods and after drought events.

THANK YOU

REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER

AFFAIRS GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF WATER MANAGEMENT

Mustafa Berk Duygu

mbduygu@ormansu.gov.tr