Capital Horizons Lisa Taylor – NHF London, April 9, 2014

• Membership-driven, not-for-profit urban policy network

• Capacity-building for people who deliver London’s built

environment

• Focus on delivery – the how as much as the why…

• Connecting practitioners at all levels across regeneration,

housing, infrastructure and economic development

• Independent, responsive and able to draw on top-tier support

• Actively engaged senior-executive board and steering group

Future of London is:

Our network

31 London members, including 9 HAs, 18 LAs, GLA and TfL

Engaged practitioner and interested-public audience from the public, private and third sector

105 London-wide Leaders

560 Twitter followers

1,370 LinkedIn Group members

1,600 active database contacts

Our network

What we do

Capacity-building

• Major research/policy projects • Housing + regeneration • Infrastructure: transportation, energy, growth • Delivery + ways of working

• Future London Leaders + Leaders Plus • Leadership skills, policy discussions, site visits • Networking + mentoring

• Seminars: cross-sector

• Communities in Transition field trips: cross-London

Why we do it

Knock down silos • Professions / Disciplines

• Culture (sector, organisation, individual)

• Locality

• Priorities

Overcome barriers • Mismatched pressures

• Uneven resources + pace

• Mistrust, perception

• Defensiveness, fear

• Ignorance

Current Programme

• Crossrail as Catalyst: regeneration potential around stations

• London 2050: ‘Grow Up or Grow Out’? Debate, delivery

• Private Rented Sector: 3-yr project to identify + engage

• Delivering public health: 3-seminar series, underway

• Communities in Transition: Woodberry Down April 29th

• Delivering more with less: Dutch exchange day – Southbank field trip, seminars on partnering

• Major workstream, including research, policy briefings, seminars, member promotion, field trips and site visits

• Recent housing publications:

July 2012 January 2013 March 2013

Housing

June 2013

• 6-month research project on how ARM is – and isn’t – working across London

• Cross-sector steering group, policy review, seminars, research + data analysis, interviews, case studies

• Explored delivery to date, challenges, approaches and potential

• Written by Andrew Heywood

• 11 Recommendations

• Fed into Draft Housing Strategy

Affordable Rent Model in London

• Rolled out across London; few declined, but push-back on rates

• Rents vary – mostly hear 60% on new, planned, refurbished; lower on conversions.*Not much discussion of who will occupy ‘60% homes’. Quiet shift?

• Heywood highlighted “Bedroom tax trap”: tenants pushed out of larger homes unable to afford nearby ARM rents

> increasing pressure on temporary accomm. + emergency budgets

> pushing more people out of neighbourhoods, London

• Rate of increase in market rents varying across boroughs as attention moves to outer/’new’ areas, but climbing across all boroughs

ARM Update

Housing – FoL 2014 focus

• Brave new world: Can emerging models deliver? • Facilitated senior-level HA + LA forum • Delivery-level seminars • Commissioned report on sector changes + results

• Estate renewal: Fundamentals conference • Practical (management, CPOs, retrofit) to Strategic (asset

valuation, land use, connectivity, partnering)

• Engaging with the Private Rented Sector • Identify key actors, influencers; drivers; tools – follow over time

• Spotlights, visits to share ideas and best practice • Genesis, Hackney and Woodberry Down; Southwark and shared

delivery; Westway and community support

Capital Horizons

London policy and plans -

London Plan/FALP • Affordable need 25.6K p.a., ‘real-world’ annual target of 17K • 2013 SHLAA ‘more rigorous’ in identifying land. Issues on the ground: political will,

land assembly, competition • Delineation: social, affordable, intermediate… Shift coming? • Increased focus on PRS to deliver #s; concerns about quality?

Draft Housing Strategy • Funding: Devolution, HRA cap, institution’l investment, Housing Bank • Land: Unlock surplus, use Opportunity Areas, develop Housing Zones • Tenure: Prioritise working Londoners, route to ownership…

Visioning • London 2050, Infra Investment Plan – is housing a natural fit here? • Better to stand alone as priority, or link in with infrastructure? How to benefit…?

Capital Horizons

10-year targets by borough Highest in Tower Hamlets (39K), Southwark (27K), Greenwich (26.8K), Barnet (23K) – largest focus on brownfield, large estate regeneration When will we formally look beyond GLA to Home Counties? Taken annually, looks eminently feasible… highest is 3,930 p.a., average is around 1,200 p.a. What will it take to deliver?

Capital Horizons

Density: GLA holding the line, allowing this doesn’t always mean towers. Time to review high-density siting, address NIMBYs? Reconsider some space standards? London HA view?

Capital Horizons

What we see/hear from borough members

• Willingness to experiment (Hackney lettings; Newham, Enfield licensing; Lambeth et al involvement in development, tenure)

• Frustration with Government (Right to Buy, welfare impacts) • Frustration with HAs (cross-subsidising in other boroughs)

What they’re starting to say about the future

• Densify, including in Outer London • ‘Grant is gone’: partner with private, HA developers, contractors • Commercialise – esp. assets - to optimise capital pool

Capital Horizons

What we hear from HA members / see in the sector • Experiments and early days:

• Shift toward social enterprise, broader remit • Shift to more commercial attitude (D.O.: ‘critics from all sides’) • Market rent products; off-plan and overseas marketing • Changing organisational cultures • New investment – for the right vehicle and partner. • As with infrastructure projects, foreign and pension/long-term

fund investment waiting at the gates…

…Between GLA, boroughs and HAs, there is a truckload of tools, enabling frameworks and good will, but still targets are pushed back…

Capital Horizons - Discussion

The underlying question: Who to house?

• Most in need, or ‘all who need a home’ (GLA, LAs)? • Vulnerable? If so, with what additional support? • Elderly – market in own right, or only address truly vulnerable?

And how?

• Increasing supply (Yes to Homes campaign, unlocking land, density; expansion: Greenbelt? Home Counties?)

• Shorter tenures – nervousness? What could change this? • Delivery mechanisms – partners; planning; new types of

organisation?

Are we communicating with each other enough to make headway, or is the separate-strands approach diluting the effort?

Capital Horizons - Discussion

Messages for FoL membership…? Working with LAs • Common ground (common cause)? • Conflicts? More importantly, approaches?

Shift to social enterprise • Who to partner with? • What about ‘mission creep’? Who will provide if social housing

becomes unattractive as a core business? What to say to critics?

Thank you!

Lisa Taylor - Director

lisa@futureoflondon.org.uk

Future of London

www.futureoflondon.org.uk

@futureofldn

Future of London