Upload
vudat
View
218
Download
6
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
UTC Fire & Security: Planning & Forecasting
18-11-2015
Content
• Introduction UTC• Introduction Supply Chain planning• Current set up of planning process• Project Forecast efficiency• Learnings
UTC Fire & Security – Proprietary and confidential Slide 3
AerospaceBuilding & Industrial Systems
UTC BusinessesFi
re &
Sec
urity
UTC Fire & Security – Proprietary and confidential Slide 4
NET SALES$30 billion (2014)
PRESENCE 74 Factories
49 R&D Centers
EMPLOYMENT118,000 employees (2014)
Building & Industrial SystemsFi
re &
Sec
urity
UTC Fire & Security: Product groups
EMEA FOOTPRINT UTC F&S
EMEA Distribution Centre (EDC)Weert, the Netherlands
Local WarehousesMilton Keynes, UKMilan, ItalyGdansk, PolandJohannesburg, SAFOslo, NorwayHelsinki, Finland
20 Pro express shops
EMEA factoriesRopczyce, Poland
Supply base
% o
f Sal
es o
rder
line
s%
of C
OG
S sa
les
valu
e
A B CSKU’s / ABC class
80%
15%
5%
123 4 5SKU’s / Service class
25%
25%
25%
20%
5%
Product portfolio and segmentation
% Supply value Column LabelsRow Labels X Y Z Grand TotalA 28% 11% 36% 75%B 2% 2% 10% 14%C 0% 0% 10% 6%Grand Total 30% 14% 56% 100%
% SKUPhase in 15%Mature 65%Phase out 19%
Count of Item Nbr Column Row Labels X Y Z Grand TotalA 225 130 401 756B 148 207 885 1240C 92 211 4096 4399Grand Total 465 548 5382 6395
Count of Item NbrRow Labels 1 2 3 4 5 Grand TotalA 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% 12%B 0% 1% 4% 9% 5% 19%C 0% 0% 3% 15% 51% 69%Grand Total 1% 3% 11% 27% 57% 100%
Supply chain planning
CUSTOMERSUPPLIERS
NPILife cycle mgt.
EDC
Local WH &Pro Express
ForecastingInventory mgt.Supply mgt.
Document control
Planning processes
Current
• Quarterly manual excel• Enrichment for projects• Weekly review on over
consumption
• Quarterly manual excel• Define stocking policy• Define Safety stock & EOQ
• MRP • Excel is the ‘second best
friend’
‘To be’
• Weekly new baseline FC• Exception based review• Focused enrichment• Plan alignment with sales,
marketing & Product mgt.
• Quarterly manual excel• Define stocking policy• Define Safety stock & EOQ• Investigate support tools
• MRP• Efficiency by automation of
order creation and scheduling
Forecasting
Planning processes & Bias
Current
• Quarterly manual excel• Enrichment for projects• Weekly review on over
consumption
• Quarterly manual excel• Define stocking policy• Define Safety stock & EOQ
• MRP • Excel is the ‘second best
friend’
‘To be’
• Weekly new baseline FC• Exception based review• Focused enrichment• Plan alignment with sales,
marketing & Product mgt.
• Quarterly manual excel• Define stocking policy• Define Safety stock & EOQ• Investigate support tools
• MRP• Efficiency by automation of
order creation and scheduling
Forecasting
Planning processes - Improvement
Demand planning ‘Forecast efficiency’• Implement demand planning process supported by IT
Plan alignment ‘One team, one plan’• Implement S&OP process for plan alignment• Decision making
Supply planning MRP optimization
12
Future stateDemantra
Oracle Forecast solution
User friendlyIndustry leader
Objective
Increase forecast accuracy
&Reduce cycletime
Current forecast
All manual - ExcelVery basic
Labor intensiveLimited qualityLong cycletimeWith high risks
Cost
Demantra tool & implementation
200K$
Benefits
700 K$ E&O reductionFrom 2 weeks to 2 hours
Low risk
Project ‘Forecast efficiency’
Milestone TargetOpportunity & Vendor Selection Nov 2013Requirements & Design Feb 2014Development & Test Sep 2014Go Live Dec 2014Post Go Live Q1/2 20152nd Go life Q1/2 2016
Demantra – Main features
• Forecast is derived from time series analysis
• Two engine phases: Learning & generate forecast
• Bayesian Estimator, Library of models is executed Based on goodness of fit models combined into single result set Nuances of models maintained
• Variable Forecast Level Forecast generated at most applicable aggregation level Aggregation levels defined in the ‘forecast tree’
• Fully integrated in Oracle
Demantra – design choices
• Time bucket definition• Forecast tree data structure• Statistical engine tuning• Chaining Using predecessor sales data• Review process exception reporting• Outlier detection History cleaning• Data interfaces• Accuracy definition and reporting
Forecast Tree
High level demand planning process
Import dataGenerate Base line forecast
Forecast review & Validation
Forecast Approval
Final forecast Export
Standard work – Baseline enrichmentForecast abilityHigh Medium Low
Enrich Enrich
EnrichEnrichHigh runners
Medium runners
Slow movers
Follow baseline
Follow baseline
Baseline & Projects
Baseline & Projects
Follow baseline
Count of Item Nbr Column Row Labels X Y Z Grand TotalA 225 130 401 756B 148 207 885 1240C 92 211 4096 4399Grand Total 465 548 5382 6395
Forecast review and validation
Frequency Demand Planner PSI Leader System AdminDaily - Review Forecast
Consumption Report- Upload BOQ files
- Review Authorization report
- Check Interface Errors
Weekly - Review high runner forecast exception
- Review other product forecast exception
- Review Authorization report
Monthly - Review Forecast Accuracy High Runners
- Review Forecast results in team meetings
- Create Forecast Management Reporting
Quarterly - Review Forecast Accuracy other products
- Review Exception Thresholds
- Review Exception Thresholds
- Review spike quantity calculation
Learnings
• Configuration Weekly data interfacing require stable and high quality data interface and
high quality master data. Forecast tree: did not bring significant improvement on the accuracy: Why? Statistical engine tuning needs more attention in order to realize better and
stable results. Different statistical profiles matching the different channels.
• System complexity Trusting the results …….? System stability – what is the actual effect of ‘’Based on goodness of fit
models are combined into a single result set’’ Fool prove ? How to safeguard knowledge and expertise ?
20
Learnings
• Impact on total planning process Change in forecasting process will require changes in the inventory
management process. The ability to aggregate the forecast to any level in the forecast tree opens
major opportunities to improve on plan integration.
• Impact on the function of Supply chain planner New demand planning process and tool will require additional capabilities
and experience New demand planning process and tool will require more focus on demand
planning function
21
From …..
To …..
Risk …..
Leading provider of building controls and automation
and fire and security solutions
FIRE & SECURITY