Planning for Agriculture and Food

Winnipeg

July 14, 2008

Implications of Climate Change for Food ProductionPlanning for adaptation and adaptive capacity

Four Key Points to Make Relevant to Planning

1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity

of people to adapt

3. Capacity of plans and

policies to adapt

4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus

[Government of Canada 2007]

Palliser’s Triangle

In 1860 Captain John Palliser, British North American Exploring Expedition, warned that disaster would befall those who tried to settle the region.

Drought: A long history of bad experience

–1906; –1936-38 (quarter million people displaced); –1961; –1976-77; –1980; –1984-85; –1988; –2001-2003 (“the worst ever?” $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ 41 000 jobs lost

Weather Stresses cited by Manitoba Farmers

Precipitation Variability(1960-2002)

Spatial Distribution of Temperature Increases

SurfaceSource: IPCC, 2007

Projected surface temperature change

Source: IPCC, 2007

( C)

Climate Change on the Prairies

• Benefits:– warmer and longer growing seasons and a warmer

winter– Increasing temperature will be positive for crop

growth and yield, up to certain thresholds.• Negative impacts:

– from changes in timing of precipitation– Increased risk of droughts and associated pests– Increased risk of excessive moisture

Impacts on Agriculture

Planning for Adaptation

Coping and Adaptation Responses of Farmers Interviewed - Manitoba

• Employ a standard farm practice• Alter a farm cycle for no longer than one season• Access outside help from within the agricultural sector• Wait it out.• Work longer or do extra work.• Make crop insurance claims.• Work with the weather• Use technological advances.• Increase buffering capacity• Reduce seeding or other inputs.• Alter a farm cycle for more than one season.• Use local associations and support networks.

Example Adaptations Relevant to Land Use Planning

• Reduced Tillage– Increase soil moisture and decreased erosion, while also reducing input

costs. – Also beneficial in wetter times, such as by allowing travel on soggy land. – Important to ensure responsible use of herbicides to prevent negative

long-term impacts

• Land Drainage– Properly maintained drainage infrastructure can increase short and

medium-term capacity to cope with heavy rainfall and excess moisture. – However, long-term adaptation is better enabled by investing in

changes that mimic the natural landscape (e.g., managed wetlands, constructing prairie potholes) to act to retain water in times of drought and regulate water in wetter periods.

Planning for Mitigation + Adaptation

IISD 2004

A Generalized Vulnerability FrameworkV = f(Exposure, Adaptive Capacity)Smit and Pilifosova (2003)

Vulnerability

ExposureAdaptiveCapacity

Economic Resources Technology Information, skills

and management Infrastructure

Data Sources

2001 Census of Agriculture, 2001 Census of Population, 2005 Statistics Canada report on …

Institutions and Networks Equity

AdaptiveCapacity

Diversity ofEmploymentopportunities

Income generation Relative to summary

expenses

Income generationRelative to capital

investment

Off-farmearnings

Technological exposure

Computer technology

Water accesstechnology

Technologicalflexibility

Experience and wisdom

Soil resourceManagement

practices

EnterpriseInformation

Management

EnvironmentalManagement

practices

Transportation network

Surface waterresource

Soil resource

Groundwaterresource

Access to agriEducation institutions

Email use

Social capital (viaInformal networks)

Internet use

Distribution of Income in the

Agri. population

Access to healthAnd social services

Employment opportunities

Distribution ofIncome in general

population

Important are …

1. The capacity of people to adapt; AND

2. The capacity of plans and policies to adapt

From the Summary:

“When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.”

“…clear need for frameworks that are "adaptive" - that reflect uncertainties and can respond and adapt as contexts change or unforeseen problems emerge.”

“Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.”

framework for adaptive policiesAdaptive Policy

Ability of policy toadapt to anticipated

conditions(based on a good understanding

of cause and effect)(based on a good understanding of system dynamics and complexity)

AutomaticAdjustment

Formal Review &Improvement

Regular review; pilot testing; experimentationMonitoring to trigger

policy adjustments

Ability of policy toadapt to unanticipated

conditions

Multi-perspectiveDeliberation

To accurately inform policy design and recognize

emerging issues

Multi-perspectiveAnalysis

to perform in a range of anticipated scenarios

Decentralization

Matching scales of ecosystems and

governance

Variation

Multiple interventions; diversity and risk

spreading

Self-organization& Social Networks

Encourage interaction and initiative to foster

innovative responses

Summary of Four Key Points for Planning

1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity

of people to adapt

3. Capacity of plans and

policies to adapt

4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus