Planning challenges for RE Deployment North African perspective Addressing Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy Planning (AVRIL) : 2-3 March 2015 Rim

Planning challenges for RE Deployment

North African perspective

Addressing Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy Planning (AVRIL) : 2-3 March 2015

Rim BoukhchinaTechnical Senior Expert

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About RCREEE

Mission : “To enable a sustainable growth in Arab states’ adoption of

renewable energy and energy efficiency applications and initiatives

through leading regional policy dialogues, learning, and research.”

RCREEE is an independent not-for-profit organization with

16 Arab member states

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Our Work Areas

Research and Analysis

• Indices and indicators

• Regional benchmarking

• Regional information

and knowledge

management systems

• Monitoring and

assessment

• Studies and publications

Capacity Development

• New technology

orientation

• Knowledge exchange

• Professional internships

• Workshops and trainings

• Institutional

development

• Compliance guidelines

Technical Assistance

• Certification and credentialing

• Labeling, standardization schemes and guidelines

• Policies and regulations design

• Implementation planning

• Tender design and guidelines

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Electricity Context in Arab region

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Electricity Mix in Arab region

31%

30%

25%

3%2% 8%

1% 0%

Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar34%

22%

32%

2% 2% 6%1% 0%

Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar

Installed Capacity

RE share including Hydro : 9 %

RE share without Hydro : 1%

Electricity Generation

RE share including Hydro : 7.1 %

RE share without Hydro : 0.7 %

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RE Share in the Arab Region

88%

11%1%

Hydro Wind Solar

90%

8% 1%

Hydro Wind Solar

Installed Capacity Electricity Generation

Low RE share in the Arab Region

Wind : 1% and 0.6% respectively in the installed capacity and electricity generation

Solar : 0.1 %

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Electricity Mix in North African Countries

29%

26%

32%

1%

3% 7% 2% 0%


32%

17%

39%

0%4%

5%1% 0%


Installed Capacity


RE share without Hydro : 2 %

Electricity Generation


RE share without Hydro : 1.1 %

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RE Share in North African Countries

Installed Capacity Electricity Generation

More important contribution of wind Energy even if RE share still low

Wind : 2 % and 1 % respectively in the installed capacity and electricity generation

Solar : 0.2 %

78%

21% 1%

Hydro Wind Solar

83%

15% 2%

Hydro Wind Solar

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RE Share in North African Countries

Egypt

Libya

Tunisia

Algeria

Morocco

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

1.9%

0.1%

5.6%

0.2%

6.7%

10.9%

0.1%

6.9%

1.7%

30.8%

RE share with Hydro RE share without Hydro

Egypt

Libya

Tunisia

Algeria

Morocco

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

9.1%

1.3%

1.5%

24.0%

1.8%

5.1%

6.7%

0.1%

0.4%

0.2%

0.3%

Hydro Wind Solar

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RE targets in Arab region

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RE targets in North African Countries

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Total Wind PV CSP Others

Goals

NAC aims to reach

48.2 GW within

2020 and 2030

2013 2015 2020 20300

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

474 MW

AnnuallyAlgeria

Wind energy Objectives

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RE Deployment Challenges

Algeria


2013 2015 2020 20300

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

474 MW

Annually

2013 2015 20200

10002000300040005000600070008000

Egypt


1200 MW

Annually

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RE Integration Challenges

Connection

& Electricity

Infrastructure

Challenges

2

5

3

4

1

Intermittence &

Variability

Management of Electricity Generation

Grid Capacity &

Infrastructure

VRE Planning and Prevision Tools

Reserve Capacities

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Existing Long-term Investment Planning Models

1

Do not consider

RE Power Plant

Cost effective

analyses

2 3

Based on

National Load

Curve

Regional needs and request for long term planning tool based on national energy context and taking into consideration RE

characteristics and specificity

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Planning Challenges for RE Deployment

Political decision for RE objectives

Weakness of national grid infrastructure in the region

Interconnections between NA countries even if they exist are underexploited

Subsidies on conventional fuels for electricity production

Extra cost and high investment of RE technologies

Lack of Storage System (Hydro Pump-Storage, others)

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Planning Challenges for RE Deployment

Limited interconnection with European countries

Absence of regional market

Lack of RE Grid Codes

Long-term investment planning models do not take into consideration the variability and intermittence of RE

Lack of competiveness and national capabilities mainly in long term planning of RE and prevision of variable resources

Miscommunication between policy makers and stakeholders in the power sector

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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model

National RE Potential

Load Curve and its future tendency

Impact of Grid interconnection

Extra cost of RE integration

Intermittence and Variability of wind

and PV

Reserve solution , Capacity credit and

reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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and PV


reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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Load Curve and Future Tendency

The growing of Energy Demand 6-8% annually The specificity of the load in the region

of curve

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Maghreb Algerie Libye Maroc Tunisie

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and PV


reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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Interconnection in the region

NAC are interconnected and also connected to the European network through the interconnection between Morocco and Spain but electricity exchanges

between countries remain underdeveloped and underused. Ambitious interconnection plans through submarine HVDC cables are forecasted between

South and North Mediterranean Countries.

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and PV


reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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High RE potential in the region

Solar Potential

Wind Potential

The region is endowed with a high potential of RE that could be a real response to

the growing demand for electricity and can contribute to the security of the energy

sector in the long-term and to an economic growth

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and PV


reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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Variability of RE Generation

Seasonal Variability

of Wind Energy

Sudden fluctuation

of PV Generation

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and PV

Adopt the Model to Energy Context of North African Countries highlight the impact of RE integration on RE energy sector

Ensure the Grid stability and security


reserve margin

Possibility of

regional planning

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To Summarize..

Planning in North African countries presents local gaps and challenges, however the adoption of good planning methodology and tools will offer an optimal energy-mix and the reduction of high investment cost in the long term beside the security of electricity sector.

Importance of assessment of current existing modeling tools and analysis of their weakness.

Importance of adapting the planning models to specific context of the region.

Promote communication and awareness targeting policy makers and different stakeholders to highlight the importance of planning in RE deployment.

Strengthen national capacities and focusing capacity development activities on planning, building and operating power grids with a high share of renewable generation in the energy mix and management of peak and off-peak load .

Importance of regional and integrated planning that could reduce margin reserve and therefore additional investments in power generation would be saved.

Plans are nothing; planning is everything (D.Eisenhower)…

Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

Documents

Planning challenges for RE Deployment North African perspective Addressing Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy Planning (AVRIL) : 2-3 March 2015 Rim