Planning and Opportunities

Deidre Thian Ph.D.

Overview

• What is happening in terms of enrolments at this time

• What is likely to happen in the future?

ENROLMENT PATTERNS, 2010-14Part 1

Cairns (R) – All SchoolsYear Prep Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y11 Y12 P-122010 2,115 2,152 2,059 1,354 2,157 2,142 2,110 2,115 2,014 2,069 2,096 2,066 1,675 26,1242011 2,319 2,189 2,217 2,092 1,386 2,202 2,177 2,137 2,116 2,054 2,068 2,100 1,865 26,9222012 2,329 2,383 2,245 2,221 2,139 1,431 2,230 2,240 2,136 2,140 2,051 2,086 1,812 27,4432013 2,538 2,396 2,411 2,251 2,241 2,133 1,451 2,279 2,221 2,188 2,171 2,033 1,806 28,1192014 2,459 2,583 2,403 2,402 2,261 2,248 2,143 1,461 2,236 2,241 2,185 2,104 1,824 28,5502015 2,558 2,454 2,551 2,396 2,420 2,270 2,271 2,124 1,440 2,203 2,221 2,170 1,829 28,907

Period Prep % P-1 Y1-2 Y2-3 Y3-4 Y4-5 Y5-6 Y6-7 Y6-7 Prog Y7-8 Prog Y7-8 Y8-9 Y9-10 Y10-11 Y11-122010-11 10% 74 65 33 32 45 35 27 100% 1 40 -1 1.001908 0.9027112011-12 0% 64 56 4 47 45 28 63 100% -1 24 -3 1.008704 0.8628572012-13 9% 67 28 6 20 -6 20 49 99% -19 52 31 0.991224 0.8657722013-14 -3% 45 7 -9 10 7 10 10 98% -43 20 -3 0.969139 0.8971962014-15 4% -5 -32 -7 18 9 23 -19 99% 99% -21 -33 -20 0.993135 0.869297

Cairns (R) – Market share change

TOTAL

CATH. INDEP. STATE2010 26.6% 9.3% 64.1%2011 26.6% 9.2% 64.2%2012 26.7% 8.6% 64.7%2013 26.7% 8.4% 64.8%2014 26.9% 8.0% 65.1%2015 26.7% 7.7% 65.6%

Change 2010-15 0.1% -1.6% 1.5%Change 2014-15 -0.1% -0.4% 0.5%

SHARE of P-12

0.1%

-1.6%

1.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

CATH. INDEP. STATE

Cairns (R) – The most important years

PREP YEAR 8/7CATH. INDEP. STATE CATH. INDEP. STATE

2010 29.5% 9.2% 61.3% 2010 24.2% 9.2% 66.6%2011 28.7% 9.1% 62.2% 2011 27.0% 9.8% 63.1%2012 28.3% 8.5% 63.2% 2012 25.7% 8.2% 66.1%2013 29.0% 8.6% 62.5% 2013 24.9% 8.3% 66.8%2014 28.5% 6.7% 64.8% 2014 24.7% 9.1% 66.2%2015 28.5% 6.9% 64.6% Y7 2015 26.1% 8.0% 66.0%

Change 2010-15 -1.0% -2.3% 3.3% Change 2010-15 1.9% -1.2% -0.7%Change 2014-15 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% Change 2014-15 1.4% -1.1% -0.2%

-1.0%

-2.3%

3.3%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

CATH. INDEP. STATE

1.9%

-1.2%

-0.7%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

CATH. INDEP. STATE

Burrowing….. SA2 picture (XL Spreadsheet Activity)

SA3• Generally have a population of between 30,000 and 130,000

people. In major cities represent the area serviced by a major transport and commercial hub. They often closely align to large urban local government areas.

• In regional areas, they represent the area serviced by regional cities with a population over 20,000 people.

SA2• Average population of about 10,000,

with a minimum population of 3,000 and a maximum of 25,000.

• In urban areas SA2s largely conform to suburbs or combinations of suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links.

SA1• An average population of about 400

persons. • Can provide very specific information

regarding characteristics of areas contributing students to the school.

THE FUTUREPart 2

Projections• School Planning Commission

Student enrolment by sector and projected school-aged persons, by SA3 by SA2, Cairns - North SA3SA3 Name SA2 Name SA2 Code

Primary Secondary Special Primary Secondary Special Primary Secondary Special 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031

Cairns - North 3,334 1,736 - 1,383 776 - 997 404 - 5,696 6,121 6,758 3,147 4,518 5,143 Brinsmead 31138 - - - - - - 323 146 - 718 627 622 394 459 460 Clifton Beach - Kewarra Beach 31139 - - - - - - 303 - - 1,168 1,234 1,373 573 874 1,002 Freshwater - Stratford 31140 711 - - - - - - - - 420 415 444 253 289 320 Redlynch 31141 1,450 837 - 882 776 - 371 258 - 1,698 1,870 2,046 974 1,438 1,628 Trinity Beach - Smithfield 31142 848 899 - 501 - - - - - 1,175 1,501 1,671 649 1,080 1,248 Yorkeys Knob - Machans Beach 31143 325 - - - - - - - - 517 475 603 305 378 483

Note: enrolment data includes duplicates (ie students are counted more than once if enrolled concurrently at two or more schools)(a) Enrolment data are taken from the February 2013 school census.(b) Enrolment data for some special schools are not available due to the transient nature of the school's population.(c) Enrolment data are not available for some schools as they were not open at the time of the February 2013 school census.(d) Care should be taken when interpreting the population growth in school-aged children due to the transition of Year 7 from primary to secondary in 2015.(e) Secondary data have been adjusted to account for <100% participation rates.

Source: Queensland Government population projections, 2013 edition; Education, Training and Employment; Non-state Schools Accreditation Board.

2013 student enrolments (a)(b)(c) Projected school-aged persons (d)(e)Government Catholic Independent Primary Secondary

Projections

• Age cohort projections– Mapping

Enrolment forecasts (maintaining market share)

BUT – its not just about projections

• What will happen in the future will be a product of:– Changes in the number of students

AND– The level of service provision (i.e. competition and

marketing)– Any changes in the socio-economic profile of the area

serviced

KNOWING YOUR CATCHMENT AREA AND THE PROFILE OF THE STUDENT POPULATION IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE

Your Catchment Area

• The importance of distance

Age Structure

• Areas of importance• Mapping (Concentration, Age Cohort Differences)

Income Profile

Mapping

IRSAD

Mapping

Competition

• Participation rates– Sector competition (mapping)

• 2016 census and school address collection– Your school vis-à-vis other independent schools

Independent Schools Queensland allows member schools to use, share, and modify this presentation as long as credit is given to the original creator (Independent Schools Queensland).