Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America and DRR in Latin America by Omar...SEGEPLAN + Ministry of Finance: determine the national policy to formulate, prioritize, evaluate

Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America

Omar D. Bello, Ph.D.

Economic Affairs Officer

Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Unit

ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean

Disaster assessment methodology

BangkokFebruary 18, 2015

1. Data on disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

2. Background of planning and disaster risk reduction in LAC

3. The case of Costa Rica

4. The case of Guatemala

5. The case of Peru

6. Stilysed facts of Damage and Losses Assessments and the

relationship to ex-ante planning

Number of Disasters

Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

The Caribbean: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

South America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Central America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

The Caribbean: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

South America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Central America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters


0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

The Caribbean: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters


0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

Caribe: Número total de afectados por desastres climáticos

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

South America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters


0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

Central America: Affected population due to a Geophysical Disasters


0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

The Caribbean: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters


0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

South America: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters


0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

Central America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters


0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

The Caribbean: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

South America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters


0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

Central America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters


0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

The Caribbean: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

South America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters


0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

World


Latin America and the Caribbean


Deaths per Thousand Inhabitants


Affected Population per Thousand of Inhabitants


Latin America and the Caribbean

-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

1 2 3 4 5

a) a un shock en tormentas

-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

1 2 3 4 5

b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

1 2 3 4 5

c) a un shock en desastre geológico

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

1 2 3 4 5

d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1 2 3 4 5

e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio

-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

1 2 3 4 5

f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional

The Caribbean

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

1 2 3 4 5


-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

1 2 3 4 5


-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1 2 3 4 5


Central America

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.80%

-0.30%

0.20%

0.70%

1 2 3 4 5


0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1 2 3 4 5


-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1 2 3 4 5


-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1 2 3 4 5


The need to improve urban and rural infrastructure, and the

development of sectoral plans and infrastructure, especially transport

and energy, in the 1950s and early 1960s marked the beginning of the

planning process in Latin America, which was formalized creating

planning economic entities in order to strengthen the operational

capacity of the public administration.

Creation of public enterprises. The size of the central government

increased.

Goal: economic growth (at that time it was equivalent to economic

development)

Economic growth does not necessarily reduce volatility to natural

hazards

Economic growth normally creates new forms of vulnerability or

exacerbate existing ones

There was no attention to disaster risk reduction topic.

The decline of this model is associated with the external debt crisis

(1982)

Policies on disaster have being reactive

Milestones related to the issue of disasters and public policy:

Mexico City earthquake, Mexico (1985)

Armero, Colombia (1986)

Mitch (1998), several Central America countries

After those disasters started in those countries a process to generate

institution that deal with disasters

At the beginning it was focus on disaster management: response toemergencies, and early warnings

LAC: Deadliest Disasters

1970-89

Year Country Type Deaths Aff.

Population

1970 PER Earthquake 66,794 3,216,240

1972 NIC Earthquake 10,000 720,000

1973 HND Mudslide 2,800

1974 HND Storm 8,000 600,000

1974 BRA Epidemic 1,500 30,000

1976 GTM Earthquake 23,000 4,993,000

1979 DOM Storm 1,400 1,554,000

1985 COL Volcanic eruption 21,800 12,700

1985 MEX Earthquake 9,500 2,130,204

1987 ECU Earthquake 5,000 150,000

LAC: Deadliest Disasters

1990-2010

Year Country Type Deaths Aff.

Population

1991 PER Epidemic 8,000

1991 PER Epidemic 1,726 283,353

1998 HND Storm 14,600 2,112,000

1998 NIC Storm 3,332 868,228

1999 VEN Floods 30,000 483,635

2004 HTI Storm 2,754 315,594

2004 HTI Floods 2,665 31,283

2005 GTM Storm 1,513 475,314

2010 HTI Earthquake 222,570 3,700,000

2010 HTI Epidemic 5,592 378,638

1. Knowledge of disaster risk

2. Risk Reduction

Prevention

Mitigation

3. Disaster Management

Preparedness

Response

4. Rehabilitation

Disaster assessment

Rebuilding

Financial Protection

The prospective risk management comprises the set of actions to prevent

the formation of new conditions of risk, which may arise with the

development of new investments and projects in the territory to

disregard location criteria, construction and safe operation. The

implementation of this approach has being relatively new in Latin

America

Integrating disaster risk reduction measures/ policies within national

public policies could help to achieve sustainable development. This could

be more important on a climate change context.

The expected impacts of those policies would be

• Preserving achieved poverty reduction

• Strenghting hazard resilience.

Costa Rica

Established in 1969

Ascribed to the Presidency of the Republic

2006: National Emergencies and Risk Prevention Act (N° 8488)

• Introduces the concept of “risk prevention”

• Regulates the State’s extraordinary activities in an emergency

• Empowers the CNE to coordinate the National Risk

Management System

Promote integrated, organized and harmonic coordination

between structures, methods, procedures and resources of all

state institutions, including participation from the private sector

and civil society.

Promote and implement public policy guidelines, which

incorporate the concept of risk management as a cross- cutting

element in planning and development.

National risk management policy

Commitment incorporated in the National Development Plan

(PND) 2006-2010

Strategic pillar: Social development and fight against poverty

Instrument of strategic planning

International commitments (Hyogo Framework for Action)

1. Poverty alleviation and increased resilience

2. Regulatory mechanisms and instruments for risk

management

3. Investment in and development of public infrastructure

4. Participation for local risk management

5. Development and dissemination of knowledge and use of

pertinent technologies

6. Preparedness and response to emergencies and disasters

7. Recovery and reconstruction

Established in 2008 (Executive Decree 34694 MIDEPLAN-

Hacienda).

Incorporation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the formulation

and evaluation of investment projects.

Reduce the impact of disasters on the fiscal deficit

• GDP: average loss of 0.83% between 2005 and 2009

• Supported by CEPREDENAC

• Bank of Public Investment Projects (BPIP)

Prospective study: threat, exposure and vulnerability

Objective: incorporate disaster risk reduction analyses and

alternatives in the pre- investment stages (profile, pre-

feasibility, feasibility and design) as part of the cost and

benefit estimations

Threats• Site

Exposure

• Identify vulnerability

Fragility

• Quantify damages and losses

Mitigation &

Prevention

• Risk reduction measures

• Mitigation and prevention costs and benefits

Database of public investment projects

Support planning, programming, budgeting, monitoring,

control and evaluation of public investments

Basic information:

• Linkages with the National Development Plan

• Objectives, description

• Expected outcomes

• Financing

• Risk analysis

• Environmental analysis

• Financial and/ or socioeconomic indicators

Register in the BPIP

Negotiation process

Final approval

Central Bank

Ministry of Finance

Guatemala

1987- 2005: the National Pre- investment Financing System

(SINAFIP) managed financing lines (IDB)

1990s: set the foundations for the National Public

Investment System:

• Creation of a fund to finance studies and designs

• Importance of elaborating public investments programs

• Project database

Presidential Secretariat for Planning and Programming

(SEGEPLAN): coordinates and prioritizes public investment

SEGEPLAN + Ministry of Finance: determine the national

policy to formulate, prioritize, evaluate and select

investment projects, and sources of financing

Guidelines

Public Investment Directorate•Updates and issues annual guidelines

•Establishes annual priorities

•Establishes information requirements and procedures

Incorporation of a technical evaluation of the projects (2001)

Incorporation of natural, economic and social risk analyses

(threats and vulnerabilities) as an additional criterion (2010)

Next steps

Draft bill to strengthen and institutionalize the National Public

Investment System•Organize and unify guidelines

•Prioritize economically and socially feasible projects

•Support descentralization

•Increase public participation

CEPREDENAC

Pertaining to the Central American Integration System

Mandate: promote activities, projects and programs

intended to reduce disaster risks that could cause human

and economic losses due to socio- natural factors

Promotes and coordinates international cooperation and

exchanges of information and expertise

Provides technical and scientific assistance

Regional Instruments

1999: Strategic Framework for the Reduction of Vulnerabilities

and Disasters in Central America

Immediate antecedent: Hurricane Mitch

Regional Plan for the Reduction of Disasters 2006-2015

2011: Comprehensive Risk Management Regional Policy for

Central America

Perú

1990s

• Weakening of the housing institutionalism

• Disorganized urban sprawl

• Rural- urban migration

• Weak urban planning

2000s

• National Plan for Urban Development

• National Housing Plan

• National Sanitation Plan

• Ecological- Economic Zoning Models

• Construction Code

• Other relevant regulations

Strengthening of the national planning system

Database of public investment projects

Support planning, programming, budgeting, monitoring,

control and evaluation of public investments

Basic information:

• Linkages with the National Development Plan

• Objectives, description

• Expected outcomes

• Financing

• Risk analysis

• Environmental analysis

• Financial and/ or socioeconomic indicators

Established in 2000

Coordinated by the Ministry of Finance

It was modified in 2002

• Incorporation of “risk” in development planning

• Promotion of sustainability

• Creation of the Multisectoral Commission for the Prevention and

Attention of Disasters

Follow and comply the established guidelines

Incorporate specific structural and non- structural measures

to prevent and mitigate disaster risks

To be declared viable, projects must be:

• Socially viable

• Sustainable

• Compatible with policy guidelines (national, sectoral and

local)

• Exposure analysisSite analysis

• Analysis of factors that could create fragility

Analysis of construction and operation technologies

• Analysis of the response capacity

• Analysis of the response capacity and service recovery

Organization and management

Technical

analysis

Resilience

Identification Phase

Analysis of hazardous

scenarios

1. Knowledge of disaster risk

2. Risk Reduction

Prevention

Mitigation

3. Disaster Management

Preparedness

Response

4. Rehabilitation

Disaster assessment

Rebuilding

Financial Protection

Indicators by the Inter American Development Bank

4 indexes of dissater risk management were developed by the Institute

of Environmental Studies of the National University of Colombia,

Manizales. The Project was funded by the IADB.

These indexes are:

a) Disaster Deficit Index

b) Local Disaster Index

c) Prevalent Vulnerability Index

d) Risk Management index

This system of indicators has a set of desirable features such as

a) they summarizes the presentation of information on risk

b) measure key elements of vulnerability

c) easy to understand by policymakers, and

d) allow cluster and comparison among countries.

They cover different aspects of the risk problematic and takes into

account aspects such as: potential damage and loss due to the probability

of extreme events, recurrent disasters or losses, socio-environmental

conditions that facilitate disasters, capacity for macroeconomic recovery,

behaviour of key services, institutional capacity and the effectiveness of

basic risk management instruments such as risk dentification, prevention

and mitigation measures, financial mechanisms and risk

transfer,emergency response levels and preparedness and recovery

capacity

DALA methodology will be used as one of the indicators of goal 1 of theSDG

Past DALAs could be used to determine stilysed facts about the damageand losses estimate profile by sector. It would be an important input forany planning process.

The Caribbean: Different disasters(%)

Social Infrastructure Productive

Hurricanes &

Storms

28.2 8.3 61.8

Extreme

precipitations

1.6 66.7 31.6

Geophysical 79.6 6.6 11.3

The Caribbean: Different disasters(%)

Social Infrastructure Productive

Hurricanes &

Storms

6.1 15.4 74.3

Extreme

precipitations

43.7 38.2 18.1

Geophysical 47 22.1 30.9

52%

28%

20%

Productivo Infraestructura Social

57%24%

10%9%

Vivienda Edificios públicos Salud Educación

85%

8%7%

Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento

80%

10%

10%

Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios

71%

16%

13%

Productivo Infraestructura Social

60%

32%

8%

Vivienda Salud Educación

64%

21%

15%

Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento

70%

21%

9%

Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios

Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America

Omar D. Bello, Ph.D.

Economic Affairs Officer

Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Unit

ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean

Disaster assessment methodology

BangkokFebruary 18, 2015

Documents

Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America and DRR in Latin America by Omar...SEGEPLAN + Ministry of Finance: determine the national policy to formulate, prioritize, evaluate