Planning and Decision-Making

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 1

Planning and Decision-Making

How do human factors influence the CIMIC process?

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My background

1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster Social Science Center Berlin 2004 Ph.D. 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy 2010 Regensburg University of Applied Science

1997 Scientific analyst for security organization 2003 IABG HF Team Program Manager Consultant

MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 2


Take home messages

Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.

Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.

CI ≠ MI - SOP business. CIMIC needs a shared situational

awareness. CIMIC means bridging the cultural

differences.

Way ahead

What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and

shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion


Human Factor is…


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More Psychology in Political Science Information processing “…is wide open to irrational,

nonrational intuitive, and affective influences, biases, and errors, especially in environments and issue-areas like international politics where uncertainty and complexity prevail.“(1)

„Ich halte die mangelnde Aufmerksamkeit der IB für diese Theorietradition, die manchmal bis zur totalen Abwehr reicht, für einen großen Fehler.“(2)

Situation factors: Time constraints, information constraints, ambiguity, familiarity,

accountability, risk, stress, dynamic vs. static-setting, interactive setting (3)

European Politics Summer Term 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 9

1(Vertzberger 1990:343) 2(Krell 2003:357) 3(Mintz&DeRouen Jr. 2010:26)

European Politics Summer Term 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 11

Bedarf Bedürfnis

Motivation

Absicht

Plan

Handlung

Absichtsbibliothek(Absichts-Skelette)

Planungsbibliothek(Plan-Skelette)

Sek. Bedarf Sek. Bedürfnis

Sek. Motivation

Teil- & Zwischenziele;"Universaloperatoren"

Erwartung

Erwartung

Auswahldruckhoch/ Kurzschluß

Planung

Absichtsgenerierung

Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)


Zielbibliothek(Ziel-Schemata)


Motivanreicherung



Lernimplus(Erfolg/Misserfolg)

. .

Wahrnehmung

Wahrnehmung

Bewertung

Bewertung

Bewertung

Bewertung

Bewertung

Bewertung Bewertung



Basis of the Modeling Approach: Theory of Human Action Organization (Dörner)


Intentions

Perception

(Protocol-)Memory

Competence

Emotions

Environment

Task / Problem

Group

Frictions

Time Pressure

Goal Elaboration

Information Gathering

Mental Modelling

Planning

Decision / Acting

Effect Control

(Self-)Reflection

Prognosis

Internal Factors External Factors

Dörner, Boyd, and HDV

MS Summer School - June 2011 13Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

The Policy Cycle


(John 1998, Sabatier 1999, McCormick 2006, Richardson 2006, Hague & Harrop 2007)

Policy Cycle

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Intentions, objectives, actions


SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion




Reliability Protection

Expectations / Scenarios

Competencies / Skills

Alliance / Coalition




Economic Welfare

Social Welfare

Electoral Success

Domestic Support Building Coalition

Infrastructure Standards




Past / HistoryInstrumentality

Start SituationAvailable Operators / Plan

Goal SituationRemaining Time

Estimated Time

Economic Welfare

Social Welfare

Electoral Success






Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency




Estimated Time

Economic Welfare

Social Welfare

Electoral Success





Economic cooperation in a specific domain

Political cooperation in a specific domain

Military cooperation in a specific domain


Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency




Estimated Time

Economic Welfare

Social Welfare

Electoral Success



Way ahead




Situation Awareness - Endsley


(Endsley 2003)

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Common understanding


Expert Group1

Expert Group 2

Expert Group 3

Expert Group 5

Expert Group 4

+ + + + =

Shared understanding


Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

+ + + + =


+ + + + =

+ + + + =

+ + + + =

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Logic of Failure (Dörner, Schaub et al.)


Goal Elaboration

Information Gathering

Mental Modelling

Planning

Decision / Acting

Effect Control

(Self-)Reflection

Prognosis

Thematic Vagabonding

Information Channelling

Reductive Hypothesis

Plan Optimism

Over-Dosage

Neglect

Lack of Lessons Learned

Linear Extrapolation


Group Think


ADecision makers Constitute a

Cohesive Group

B-1Structural Faults of Organization1.Insulation of the group2.Lack of tradition of imperial leadership3.Lack of norms requiring methodical procedures4.Homogeneity of members social background and ideologyetc.

B-2Provocative Situational Context1.High stress from external threats with low hope of a better solution than the leader’s2.Low self-esteem temporarily induced by:

1. Recent failures that make members’ inadequacies salient.

2. Excessive Difficulties on current decision-making tasks that lower each member’s sense of self-efficacy

3. Moral dilemmas: apparent lack of feasible alternatives except ones that violate ethical standards

etc.C

Symptoms of GroupthinkType I: Overestimating thegroup1. Illusion of invulnerability2. Belief in inherent morality of the group

Type II: Closed-mindedness1. Collective Rationalizations2. Stereotypes of out groupsType III: Pressures toward uniformity1. Self-censorship2. illusion of unanimanity3. Direct pressure on dissenters4. Self-appointed mind guards

DSymptoms of Defective

Decision-making

1. Gross omissions in survey of objectives2. Gross omission in surevey of

alternatives3. Poor information search4. Selective bias in processing information

at hand5. Failure to reconsinder originally rejected

alternatives6. Failure to examine some major costs

and risks of preferred choice7. Failure to work out detailed

implementation, monitoring and contingency plans

ELow Probability of Successful

Outcome

Concurrence-Seeking

(Janis 1989:59)

Way ahead




NNEC (p. 64)


NNEC (p.66)


NNEC (p.70)


Way ahead




Badke-Schaub / Frankenberg

MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 39Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

Cooperative solution search


Deficient goal analysis


Successful solution search


Successful solution decision


Deficient solution decision


Way ahead





Take home messages

Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.

Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.

CI ≠ MI - SOP business. CIMIC needs a shared situational

awareness. CIMIC means bridging the cultural

differences.

Questions / Discussion


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Back Up


CI / CS type of reaction (Thomas)

Ignorant Universalist Man of action Potenzializer


Phases of cultural shock (Oberg 1960)

Honeymoon Crisis Recovery Adjustment


„Intercultural competence requires an ability to move beyond sterotypes and to respond to the individual.“ (Lustig / Koester 2003, S. 154)


NNEC (p. 64)


NNEC (p.66)


NNEC (p.70)


Documents

Planning and Decision-Making