The Scotstat Network of Local Government and Public Body Analysts Survey Conference

The Scottish House Condition Survey

Ian Máté

Plan

1.SHCS Background

2.Working with Local Authorities

3.Future?

The Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS)

• 3,000 occupied households every year;

• 2-stage Survey:• Social Survey – 3,000 variables• Physical Survey – 400 variables

• Random Sample of each Local Authority - unclustered

• Yearly minimum of 80 surveys per Local Authority

SHCS Annual Sample Size by LA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350M

oray

Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Ang

us

Sou

th A

yrsh

ire

Eile

an S

iar

Fal

kirk

Wes

t Lot

hian

Mid

loth

ian

Sco

ttish

Bor

ders

Dun

dee

City

Per

th a

nd K

inro

ss

Eas

t Ayr

shire

Arg

yll a

nd B

ute

Abe

rdee

nshi

re Eas

t

Eas

t Lot

hian

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Stir

ling

Hig

hlan

d

Eas

t

Ork

ney

Isla

nds

Nor

th A

yrsh

ire

She

tland

Isla

nds

Inve

rcly

de

Ren

frew

shire

Dum

frie

s an

d

Wes

t

Sou

th L

anar

kshi

re

Nor

th L

anar

kshi

re Fife

City

of E

dinb

urgh

Gla

sgow

City

Valid

sam

ple

siz

e

What is the SHCS?

• Purpose: To measure progress and inform policy;

• Outcome: Measures the quality of people’s experience of housing against the quality of housing in Scotland.

• SHCS can set a baseline by area (National, Urban/ rural, SIMD), Tenure and Dwelling Type etc - ANNUALLY

• Provides a Local Authority picture annually but has to use 3 years worth of data so currently uses 2005/06, 2007 and

2008 survey data.

• We publish an annual LA report on the web using 3 years worth of data.

The main policy areas covered:

• Scottish Housing Quality Standard• Fuel Poverty• Fuel use• Energy Efficiency • Insulation• Dwelling Amenities• Barrier-free• Age and type of stock

SHCS Background

Social Data;Physical Data;Social and Physical Data

• Households and Energy Efficiency;• Health and dwelling conditions;• Housing and older people;• Housing and Noise;• Barrier-free (housing and disability); • Fuel Poverty

Scottish Housing Quality Standard

SHQS Fail by Tenure by Year

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2007 2008Year

% h

ou

se

ho

lds

Fa

ilin

g S

HQ

S

owner-occupier

LA/other public

HA/co-op

private-rented

The Scottish Housing Quality Standard % Failure rate of Social Housing by Local Authority

% fail

0102030405060708090

100

Fuel Poverty

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Survey Year

Per

cent

age

Fuel Poor

Extreme Fuel Poor

Fuel PovertySHCS 2005/06 - 2008 Weighted % of Households in Fuel Poverty

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Clackm

ann

ansh

ire

West L

othian

West D

unb

artonsh

ire

Dund

ee C

ity

Abe

rdeen

City

Eas

t Ayrsh

ire

Renfrew

shire

Eas

t Dunbartons

hire

Eas

t Lothia

n

City

of Edin

burgh

Midloth

ian

Falkirk

Glas

gow

City

Stirlin

g

North A

yrsh

ire

North La

narkshire

Inverc

lyde

Eas

t Renfre

wsh

ire

Sou

th Ayrs

hire

Sou

th Lana

rkshire

Fife

Perth

and

Kinross

Moray

Highla

nd

Ang

us

Argy

ll and B

ute

Sco

ttish B

orde

rs

Abe

rdeen

shire

Dum

fries an

d Gallow

ay

She

tland

Isla

nds

Ork

ney Islan

ds

Eilea

n Sia

r

Sco

tland

Houses are becoming more energy efficient – but still a long way to go% of dwellings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Survey period

Good (7 - 10)

Moderate (3 - 6)

Poor (0 - 2)

National Home Energy Rating

New Data

• Energy efficiency of up to 2 extensions• Barrier-free – more coherent• Heating and boiler details• Insulation – more detail

• Council Tax band, amount and discounts;

• On or off the gas grid;

Physical form changes

• Leaded windows• Stone type • Stone technique• Shutters• Roofing materials

Traditional building materials, Local sustainable sources, Supporting craft courses and trades.

New data challenges - EPCsTotal EPCs by month

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Month

No.

of E

PC

s

Total EPCs 153,099

New challenges – EPCsEPCs by Transaction Type

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

New Build

Not Sale/Rental

Private Rented

Social Rented

Other Sale

Marketed Sale

Data to 30/08/09

New challenges – EPCs

% EPCs and Stock by Tenure

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Owner-occupier LA/other public Private-rented Other New build

Tenure

% o

f d

we

llin

gs

% of EPCs by Tenure

% of Tenure

Emulated EPC Energy Efficiency Rating

EPC Energy Efficiency Rating

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

A B C D E F GRating

% o

fd

wellin

gs

2007

2008

EPC Energy Efficiency RatingWall Property-Type Roof-Insulation-Thickness

Wall Built-Form SAP-Floor-Dimensions

Roof Multiple-Glazed-Proportion SAP-Floor-Dimension

Roof Multiple-Glazing-Type Floor

Floor Extensions-Count Floor-Construction

Window Glazed-Area Floor-Insulation

Main-Heating Habitable-Room-Count Heat-Loss-Perimeter

Main-Heating-Controls Heated-Room-Count Total-Floor-Area

Hot-Water Low-Energy-Lighting Room-Height

Lighting Measurement-Type SAP-Floor-Dimension

Secondary-Heating Mechanical-Ventilation SAP-Floor-Dimensions

Has-Hot-Water-Cylinder Open-Fireplaces-Count SAP-Building-Part

Has-Heated-Separate-Conservatory Photovoltaic-Supply SAP-Building-Parts

Energy-Rating-Current Solar-Water-Heating SAP-Heating

Energy-Rating-Potential Conservatory-Type Main-Heating-Data-Source

Environmental-Impact-Current SAP-Building-Parts Main-Heating-Category

Environmental-Impact-Potential SAP-Building-Part SAP-Main-Heating-Code

EPC Energy Efficiency RatingEnergy-Consumption-Current Building-Part-Number BEDF-Revision-Number

Energy-Consumption-Potential Identifier Main-Fuel-Type

CO2-Emissions-Current Construction-Age-Band Main-Heating-Control

CO2-Emissions-Potential Wall-Construction Water-Heating-Code

CO2-Emissions-Current-Per-Floor-Area Wall-Insulation-Type Water-Heating-Fuel

CO2-Emissions-Current-Per-Floor-AreaPotential Roof-Construction Secondary-Heating-Type

Lighting-Cost-Current Roof-Insulation-Location Secondary-Fuel-Type

Lighting-Cost-Potential Roof-Insulation-Thickness Cylinder-Size

Heating-Cost-Current SAP-Floor-Dimensions Cylinder-Insulation-Type

Heating-Cost-Potential SAP-Floor-Dimension Cylinder-Insulation-Thickness

Hot-Water-Cost-Current Floor Cylinder-Thermostat

Hot-Water-Cost-Potential Floor-Construction Heat-Emitter-Type

Loft insulation Floor-Insulation SAP-Heating

Typical-Saving Heat-Loss-Perimeter SAP-Energy-Source

Energy-Performance-Rating Total-Floor-Area Wind-Turbines-Count

Environmental-Impact-Rating Room-Height Wind-Turbines-Terrain-Type

Low energy lighting SAP-Floor-Dimension Meter-Type

EPC Energy Efficiency RatingTypical-Saving SAP-Floor-Dimension Main-Gas

Energy-Performance-Rating Floor SAP-Energy-Source

Environmental-Impact-Rating Heat-Loss-Perimeter SAP-Deselected-Improvements

Solar water heating Total-Floor-Area Deselected-Improvement-Measure

Typical-Saving Room-Height SAP-Deselected-Improvements

Energy-Performance-Rating SAP-Floor-Dimension SAP-Property-Details

Environmental-Impact-Rating SAP-Floor-Dimensions SAP-Data

Double glazing SAP-Building-Part Insurance-Details

Typical-Saving SAP-Building-Part Insurer

Energy-Performance-Rating Building-Part-Number Policy-No

Environmental-Impact-Rating Identifier Effective-Date

Wind turbine Construction-Age-Band Expiry-Date

Typical-Saving Wall-Construction PI-Limit

Energy-Performance-Rating Wall-Insulation-Type Insurance-Details

Environmental-Impact-Rating Roof-Construction Roof-Insulation-Location

Why I wanted to speak today

• 32 Local Authorities based on historical accident and geography;

• 5,000,000 people;• 2,300,000 dwellings;

• Is it too difficult to have a combined Housing Survey covering all Local Authorities’ needs on an Annual basis?

Why I wanted to speak today

• THE SHCS can give a Local Authority estimate annually but, according to our ‘rules’ has to use 3 years worth of data.

• So we currently use 2005/06, 2007 and 2008 survey data.

30 50 75 100 150 200 250 3001%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Confidence Interval

Sample Size

Result in %

30 50 75 100

1% 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.0

2% 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.7

5% 7.8 6.0 4.9 4.3

10% 10.7 8.3 6.8 5.9

15% 12.8 9.9 8.1 7.0

20% 14.3 11.1 9.1 7.8

25% 15.5 12.0 9.8 8.5

30% 16.4 12.7 10.4 9.0

35% 17.1 13.2 10.8 9.3

40% 17.5 13.6 11.1 9.6

45% 17.8 13.8 11.3 9.8

50% 17.9 13.9 11.3 9.8

Current situation

Our contractor is Ipsos_MORI

Our contract foresees Local Authority boosts using the SHCS infrastructure

But it ties Ipsos-MORI to:• Taking a social and physical survey; and • The SHCS methods and standards

This is expensive because of:• High data quality standards and • High rates of response required involving extensive call backs.

Current situation

2 COUNCILS - Scottish Borders and Aberdeenshire

have bought private sector boosts but extra resource management and weighting strategies and so on must be managed; it is not straight forward.

On such a small scale its not of much benefit to an overall strategy of to provide annual consistent, comparable data across all local authorities.

Is there a better way?

1 We hope to be able to utilise the EPC data statistically in some way not defined as yet to provide weighted energy efficiency output on an LA basis annually.

2 Can we determine a consistent universal housing and household data requirement for all LAs ; and work from there to produce a national survey that meets Local and National Government Policy needs?

Are there viable options?

Are there viable options?

Problems:

Small LAs need disproportionate boosts but have less money and expertise.

Local House Condition Survey are ad hoc, with different content and varying quality and no consistency across time or between Local Authorities.

Disproportionate management and training costs for LAs.

Are there viable options? 2 Models:

Option 1?

• SG in partnership with COSLA (e.g.?) set up a survey umbrella organisation to manage consistent surveys.

• Could have a predominant core social survey with some room for local modules?

About 300 surveys per year per LA?

Are there viable options? 2 Models:

Option 2?

• Standardised survey modules provided which are mandated by a Local Authority umbrella organisation?

• This would allow LAs to use local resources where they are available.

Sampling; Social interviewer recruitment, Social interviewer training; social interviewer field force; CAPI Scripts and validation; Portable laptops with CAPI scripts and validation; Physical survey appointment system; Physical Survey recruitment; Physical survey training;

Are there viable options? 2nd Model:

Option 2?

Sampling; Social interviewer recruitment, Social interviewer training; social interviewer field force; CAPI Scripts and validation; Portable laptops with CAPI scripts and validation.

Physical survey appointment system; Physical Survey recruitment; Physical survey training; Field management; Back checking; Scanning and validation.

Software training; Database quality assurance; Derived variable production.

Are there viable options? 2nd Model:

Is there a feeling that there should be more consistency across Scotland?

Is it possible for a nationally co-ordinated survey to meet local needs exactly enough to remove the need for local surveys?

Would it save money, create efficiencies or is it doomed as too inflexible to meet local needs?

West Lothian sustainable, low-carbon footprint, affordable housing development.

Ian.mate@scotland.gsi.gov.uk