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Transinfo
2017
PISA 2015 - Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Programme for International Student Assessment
www.transinfo.co.uk
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
Index1.1 The Northern Ireland sample
2.1 Science
3.1 Reading
4.1 Mathematics
5.1 UK comparison
6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers
7.1 Inequality performance
8.1 Gender differences
9.1 Socio-economic status
9.2 Resilience in science
Sectoral differences
Additional countries results
1.1 The Northern Ireland sample
10.1
10.2
Notes
1. According to PISA, 30 points in an assessment equates to one year of schooling.
2. PISA assessments are carried out every three years, 2015 being the most recent with data reports being released in
December 2016.
3. Computer-based assessments were used in 2012 for the first time, replacing paper-based assessments. PISA
acknowldges this has negatively impacted on the performance of girls and individual boys.
All figures used in this publication are taken from PISA assessments and used to produce visual representations for the
three disciplines of science, reading and mathematics from the perspective of Northern Ireland.
It is not the intention to repoduce findings that are published elsewhere rather than juxtapose and present information in
such a way that additional thinking is brought to PISA outcomes.
The reader is asked to reach beyond a 'league table' approach and to consider the health of education across Northern
Ireland, whether that health differs across the disciplines and what are the longer term trends. Like all data,
contradictions are exposed and 'disturbing realities' are uncovered. This is as it should be but the point, as is often the
case, is how do we bring about necessary change?
The official PISA 2015 report for NI can be accessed here:
www.education-ni.gov.uk/publications/2015-northern-ireland-pisa-results
The following table is derived from Table 7.1 of the NI PISA report (see link above) and suggests that 2,376 students and
92 schools participated from Grammar and non-selective sectors.
On page 234 of the report, under the heading 'Response rates in PISA 2015' it is stated that "A total of 95 schools and
2,401 pupils completed the PISA study in Northern Ireland." This means that 25 pupils from 3 independent schools also
participated.
Management type Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average
Controlled 356 15 23.7 192 7 27.4 548 22 24.9
Catholic maintained 738 29 25.4 0 0 738 29 25.4
Voluntary 0 0 872 32 27.3 872 32 27.3
Other 218 9 24.2 0 0 218 9 24.2
Total 1312 53 24.8 1064 39 27.3 2376 92 25.8
Non-selective Grammar Total
Sample sizes for Grammar and non-selective schools
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 2
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
2.1 ScienceScience
Reading
Mathematics
556 535 564
538 516 532
534 519 520
532 497 542
531 526 511
529 509 544
528 527 516
525 487 495
523 527 548
518 494 531
516 517 524
513 509 495
513 505 510
512 500 493
510 503 494
509 498 492
509 509 506
509 503 512
506 492 521
503 521 504
502 499 507
502 500 511
501 506 504
501 498 492
500 497 493
498 513 502
497 493 491
496 497 470
495 485 497
495 499 493
493 500 494
493 493 490
493 487 492
493 496 486
490 488 482
487 495 494
485 477 478
483 481 486
481 485 490
The average score for Northern Ireland in Science is 500. According to PISA outcomes,
students in Singapore exhibit two more years of schooling (60 points) than NI students.
Singapore
Japan
Estonia
Chinese Taipei
Finland
Macao (China)
Canada
Vietnam
Hong Kong
B-S-J-G (China)
Korea
New Zealand
Slovenia
England
Australia
United Kingdom
Germany
Netherlands
Switzerland
Ireland
Belgium
Denmark
Poland
Portugal
N Ireland
Norway
Scotland
United States
Austria
France
Sweden
OECD average
Czech Republic
Spain
Latvia
Russia
Wales
Luxembourg
Italy
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 3
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
3.1 ReadingScience
Reading
Mathematics
556 535 564
528 527 516
523 527 548
531 526 511
503 521 504
534 519 520
516 517 524
538 516 532
498 513 502
529 509 544
513 509 495
509 509 506
501 506 504
513 505 510
510 503 494
509 503 512
512 500 493
502 500 511
493 500 494
502 499 507
495 499 493
509 498 492
501 498 492
532 497 542
500 497 493
496 497 470
493 496 486
487 495 494
518 494 531
497 493 491
493 493 490
506 492 521
490 488 482
525 487 495
493 487 492
495 485 497
481 485 490
483 481 486
485 477 478
The average score in reading for NI is 497. This performance is very similar to that of
England (500) and Scotland (493).
Singapore
Canada
Hong Kong
Finland
Ireland
Estonia
Korea
Japan
Norway
Macao (China)
New Zealand
Germany
Poland
Slovenia
Australia
Netherlands
England
Denmark
Sweden
Belgium
France
United Kingdom
Portugal
Chinese Taipei
N Ireland
United States
Spain
Russia
B-S-J-G (China)
Scotland
OECD average
Switzerland
Latvia
Vietnam
Czech Republic
Austria
Italy
Luxembourg
Wales
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 4
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
4.1 MathematicsScience
Reading
Mathematics
556 535 564
523 527 548
529 509 544
532 497 542
538 516 532
518 494 531
516 517 524
506 492 521
534 519 520
528 527 516
509 503 512
531 526 511
502 500 511
513 505 510
502 499 507
509 509 506
503 521 504
501 506 504
498 513 502
495 485 497
513 509 495
525 487 495
510 503 494
493 500 494
487 495 494
512 500 493
495 499 493
500 497 493
509 498 492
501 498 492
493 487 492
497 493 491
493 493 490
481 485 490
493 496 486
483 481 486
490 488 482
485 477 478
496 497 470
The average score in mathematics for NI and England is 493. Singapore dominates again
with an average interpreted as being over two years of additional schooling.
Singapore
Hong Kong
Macao (China)
Chinese Taipei
Japan
B-S-J-G (China)
Korea
Switzerland
Estonia
Canada
Netherlands
Finland
Denmark
Slovenia
Belgium
Germany
Ireland
Poland
Norway
Austria
New Zealand
Vietnam
Australia
Sweden
Russia
England
France
N Ireland
United Kingdom
Portugal
Czech Republic
Scotland
OECD average
Italy
Spain
Luxembourg
Latvia
Wales
United States
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 5
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
5.1 UK comparison
Science
Reading
Mathematics
l Wales
l England
l Scotland
l N Ireland
l OECD Average
Across the three disciplines, all four 'UK
nations' have declined since PISA was
carried out in 2000.
If the earlier assessment scores are
accurate, this would suggest for instance
that the average for mathematics in NI has
fallen by almost one year of additional
schooling over the period 2000 to 2006.
Since 2006 the average has remained at
just under 495.
Note that Wales only began to engage with
PISA in 2003 - the same year that the
results for England were deemed not
reliable.
450
465
480
495
510
525
540
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
450
465
480
495
510
525
540
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
450
465
480
495
510
525
540
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 6
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers
Science 90th percentile 10th percentile
Reading 90th percentile 10th percentile
Mathematics 90th percentile 10th percentile
2012 saw the introduction of computer based testing hence the dashed line. l N Ireland
n OECD Average
The 10th and 90th percentile are benchmark proxies for lower and higher achievers respectively. This translates into
measuring how the bottom 10% and top 10% of achievers perform.
Across the three disciplines there has been a steady decline of performance amongst the highest achievers in NI,
narrowing the gap with the OECD average. Throughout the same period there has been a general increase of performance
amongst the lowest achievers, surpassing the OECD average at the 10th percentile.
International comparisons of NI student achievement suggests that lower achievers are performing better with their
international peers than higher achievers. This finding contradicts the common perception that top pupils perform better
in NI and amongst lower achievers there is a long tail of underachievement.
The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality.
590
605
620
635
650
2006 2009 2012 2015
590
605
620
635
650
2006 2009 2012 2015
590
605
620
635
650
2006 2009 2012 2015
350
365
380
395
2006 2009 2012 2015
350
365
380
395
2006 2009 2012 2015
350
365
380
395
2006 2009 2012 2015
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 7
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
7.1 Inequality performanceThe difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality. l N Ireland
n OECD Average
Science Reading Mathematics
The fall in performance in higher achieving students and the improvement for lower achieving students means that the
spread of inequality has narrowed for each discipline. For instance in science in 2015 about 240 points separates the top
and bottom 10 percentiles compared to over 290 nine years earlier. In each discipline the level of inequality has fallen
below the average for OECD countries. The NI education system is a selective one and these outcomes suggests an
appearance of less inequality than non-selective systems. However it can be asserted that the NI system is not catering
for higher achieving students - a feature that is at odds with a main rationale for selection in the first instance.
The adjacent tables shows
international comparisons in
inequality. Countries marked *
have significant differences
with NI.
In Scotland therefore, the level
of inequality is 247 points for
science - a difference of 8.2
school years from the top 10%
of achievers to the lowest 10%.
200
220
240
260
280
300
2006 2009 2012 2015
200
220
240
260
280
300
2006 2009 2012 2015
200
220
240
260
280
300
2006 2009 2012 2015
Science Pts Years Reading Pts Years Maths Pts Years
New Zealand * 273 9.1 France * 293 9.8 China * 276 9.2
China * 271 9.0 China * 283 9.4 South Korea * 258 8.6
Singapore * 271 9.0 Luxembourg * 279 9.3 Belgium * 255 8.5
Sweden * 269 9.0 New Zealand * 274 9.1 France * 249 8.3
France * 268 8.9 Australia * 265 8.8 Portugal * 249 8.3
Australia * 267 8.9 Austria * 265 8.8 Austria * 247 8.2
Netherlands * 266 8.9 Belgium * 263 8.8 Singapore * 247 8.2
Belgium * 265 8.8 Czech Republic * 262 8.7 Switzerland * 247 8.2
England * 264 8.8 Netherlands * 262 8.7 England * 245 8.2
Luxembourg * 264 8.8 Sweden * 262 8.7 Luxembourg * 244 8.1
Germany * 260 8.7 United States * 259 8.6 Australia * 242 8.1
Switzerland * 259 8.6 Germany * 258 8.6 Italy * 241 8.0
United States * 258 8.6 Singapore * 257 8.6 New Zealand * 238 7.9
Austria * 256 8.5 Norway * 255 8.5 Netherlands * 237 7.9
Czech Republic 251 8.4 England * 254 8.5 Czech Republic * 235 7.8
Norway 251 8.4 Switzerland * 254 8.5 Sweden * 233 7.8
Finland 250 8.3 South Korea * 251 8.4 Hong Kong * 232 7.7
Slovenia 250 8.3 Italy * 244 8.1 Germany * 230 7.7
South Korea 248 8.3 Portugal * 240 8.0 United States * 230 7.7
Scotland 247 8.2 Finland * 239 8.0 Slovenia * 228 7.6
Japan 243 8.1 Slovenia * 239 8.0 Canada * 227 7.6
Portugal 241 8.0 Canada * 238 7.9 Japan * 227 7.6
Canada 240 8.0 Japan * 238 7.9 Poland * 226 7.5
Italy 240 8.0 Scotland 235 7.8 Spain 220 7.3
Northern Ireland 239 8.0 Poland 231 7.7 Norway * 219 7.3
Poland 235 7.8 Russia 227 7.6 Scotland 219 7.3
Wales 235 7.8 Estonia 226 7.5 Vietnam 215 7.2
Denmark 234 7.8 Denmark 225 7.5 Russia 214 7.1
Estonia 233 7.8 Spain 224 7.5 Finland 210 7.0
Republic of Ireland 231 7.7 Republic of Ireland 222 7.4 Denmark 209 7.0
Spain 231 7.7 Latvia 221 7.4 Estonia 209 7.0
Russia * 215 7.2 Hong Kong 220 7.3 Republic of Ireland 206 6.9
Latvia * 214 7.1 Northern Ireland 220 7.3 Macao 204 6.8
Macao * 210 7.0 Wales 219 7.3 Northern Ireland 204 6.8
Hong Kong * 209 7.0 Macao 212 7.1 Wales 201 6.7
Vietnam * 196 6.5 Vietnam * 187 6.2 Latvia 200 6.7
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 8
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
8.1 Gender differencesThe difference in gender performance
across the three disciplines in NI has
coalesced over the four periods of
assessment. In part this has been the
result of intoducing computer-based
assessment.
The biggest gender gap is in reading with
girls outperforming boys.
Across science and mathematics boys slightly outperform boys in NI and most other countries. However girls outperform
boys significantly in reading both NI and internationally. This would explain to some extent why girls outperform boys at
GCSE almost entirely across the curriculum.
Sci Boys
Sci Girls
Math Boys
Math Girls
Read Boys
Read Girls
470
480
490
500
510
520
2006 2009 2012 2015
Count r y Gap Count r y Gap Count r y Gap
Austria 19 19 Wales -11 -11 Austria 27 27
Italy 17 17 Ireland -12 -12 Italy 20 20
Japan 14 14 Japan -13 -13 Germany 17 17
Belgium 12 12 N Ireland -14 -14 Ireland 16 16
Ireland 11 11 Belgium -16 -16 Spain 16 16
Germany 10 10 Italy -16 -16 Belgium 14 14
Portugal 10 10 China -16 -16 Japan 14 14
China 9 9 Portugal -17 -17 England 12 12
Czech Rep 9 9 United States -20 -20 Switzerland 12 12
Luxembourg 8 8 Austria -20 -20 Poland 11 11
United States 7 7 Singapore -20 -20 Luxembourg 11 11
Spain 7 7 Spain -20 -20 Portugal 10 10
Singapore 6 6 Germany -21 -21 Wales 10 10
Poland 6 6 Scotland -21 -21 Denmark 9 9
Switzerland 6 6 Luxembourg -21 -21 Canada 9 9
Denmark 6 6 Denmark -22 -22 New Zealand 9 9
Wales 5 5 England -23 -23 United States 9 9
New Zealand 5 5 Netherlands -24 -24 Czech Rep 7 7
Russia 4 4 Vietnam -25 -25 Scotland 7 7
Netherlands 4 4 Switzerland -25 -25 N Ireland 7 7
Estonia 3 3 Czech Rep -26 -26 France 6 6
Norway 3 3 Russia -26 -26 Russia 6 6
N Ireland 3 3 Canada -26 -26 China 6 6
Australia 2 2 Estonia -28 -28 Australia 6 6
France 2 2 Hong Kong -28 -28 Estonia 5 5
Scotland 1 1 France -29 -29 Slovenia 4 4
Canada 1 1 Poland -29 -29 Netherlands 2 2
England 0 0 Macao -32 -32 Hong Kong 2 2
Hong Kong -1 -1 Australia -32 -32 Singapore 0 0
Vietnam -3 -3 New Zealand -32 -32 Latvia -2 -2
Sweden -5 -5 Sweden -39 -39 Sweden -2 -2
Slovenia -6 -6 Norway -40 -40 Norway -2 -2
Macao -8 -8 South Korea -41 -41 Vietnam -3 -3
South Korea -10 -10 Latvia -42 -42 South Korea -7 -7
Latvia -11 -11 Slovenia -43 -43 Finland -8 -8
Finland -19 -19 Finland -47 -47 Macao -8 -8
Science MathematicsReading
Girls stronger Boys stronger
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 9
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
9.1 Socio-economic status
Science Reading Mathematics
9.2 Resilience in science
Across the three disciplines NI students from the most advantaged 25 per cent of families score significantly higher than
the other three NI groups. There is 70-80 points differnce (up to two and two thirds years of schooling) between students
from the richest backgrounds compared to pupils from the most disadvantaged backgrounds.
A student is denoted as resilient if their socio-economic status is in
the poorest 25% of their own country but they perform in the top
quarter of all students in the PISA study.
According to PISA “there is no evidence that countries with
academically selective schooling systems have a greater proportion
of resilient pupils.”
450
475
500
525
550
Poorest
25%
Second
Quartile
Third
Quartile
Richest
25%
450
475
500
525
550
Poorest
25%
Second
Quartile
Third
Quartile
Richest
25%
450
475
500
525
550
Poorest
25%
Second
Quartile
Third
Quartile
Richest
25%
Country Resilence %
Vietnam 76 76
Macao 65 65
Hong Kong 62 62
Japan 49 49
Singapore 49 49
Estonia 48 48
Taiwan 46 46
China 45 45
Finland 43 43
South Korea 40 40
Canada 39 39
Portugal 38 38
England 36 36
Poland 35 35
Slovenia 35 35
Germany 34 34
Australia 33 33
United States 32 32
Netherlands 31 31
Ireland 30 30
New Zealand 30 30
Northern Ireland 30 30
Switzerland 29 29
Wales 29 29
Denmark 28 28
Belgium 27 27
France 27 27
Italy 27 27
Scotland 27 27
Austria 26 26
Norway 26 26
Russia 26 26
Czech Republic 25 25
Sweden 25 25
Luxembourg 21 21
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 10
Programme for International Student Assessment 2015
10.1 Sectoral differences
Grammar
Non-selective
10.2 Additional countries resultsScience
Reading
Mathematics
477 470 477 Hungary
475 472 478 Lithuania
475 487 464 Croatia
475 475 456 CABA (Argentina)
473 482 488 Iceland
467 479 470 Israel
465 447 479 Malta
461 453 475 Slovak Republic
455 467 454 Greece
447 459 423 Chile
446 432 441 Bulgaria
437 434 427 United Arab Emirates
435 437 418 Uruguay
435 434 444 Romania
433 443 437 Cyprus1
428 416 420 Moldova
427 405 413 Albania
425 428 420 Turkey
The following countries also participated in PISA but typically performed lower
across the disciplines and don't appear in the visuals above.
The difference in performance between Grammar and
non-selective schools in NI for 2015:
Science: 96
Reading: 86
Mathematics: 84
This means that students in Grammar schools are on
avarge ahead by 3 years of additional schooling.
Science Reading Maths 450
480
510
540
570
425 427 417 Trinidad and Tobago
421 409 415 Thailand
420 427 400 Costa Rica
418 402 402 Qatar
416 425 390 Colombia
416 423 408 Mexico
411 427 418 Montenegro
411 401 404 Georgia
409 408 380 Jordan
403 397 386 Indonesia
401 407 377 Brazil
397 398 387 Peru
386 347 396 Lebanon
386 361 367 Tunisia
384 352 371 FYROM
378 347 362 Kosovo
376 350 360 Algeria
332 358 328 Dominican Republic
www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 11
Transinfo
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