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8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
1/9
XBO LG_ZMED GA OMOZKP
EMH HOQODG^IOMX
Fbezdov L- Vudd`qem$
`~od`mo ^gd`x`fv `m xbo ^gvx)Vgq`ox V~efo55
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
2/9
^@^OD@MO ^GD@X@FV @M XBO ^GVX)VGQ@OX V^EFO>1$ Xzciom`vxem voocv xg dovvom Zvv`ev omozkp kz`~
gqoz Fomxzed Ev`e jp j`dh`mk kev ~`~od`mov gmxg Ev`e emh Ozg~o- Zodex`gmv jo
x{oom Igvfg{ emh Evbkejex beqo vgzoh ev e zovdx ga ^zov`homx Kzjemkdp
Jozhpibeiiohgqv oaagzxv xg azxboz h`qozv`ap b`v fgmxzpv or~gzxex`gm zgxov-
Pox `m {b`fb h`zofx`gm `v Xzciom`vxem igvx d`codp xg xzemv~gzx xbo jdc ga `xv kev
zovozqov `m xbo axzo7 ^zoh`fxejdp$ `x e~~oezv ev `a Xzciom`vxem {`dd fgmx`mo xg
ombemfo `xv fgiiozf`ed x`ov {`xb Fb`me `m xbo bg~ov xbex hg`mk vg {`dd doeh xg xbo
ovxejd`vbiomx ga e hzejdo ~ezxmozvb`~- Xbex ve`h$ edxbgkb Evbkejex voocv xg `mvx`xxo fgiiozf`ed x`ov {`xb e qez`oxp ga gxboz Ozg~oem emh Ev`em fgmxz`ov$ e voz`ov
ga fbeddomkov bei~ozv zoed`|ex`gmv `m xbo vbgzx zm- Azxbozigzo$ `x `v `i~gzxemx xg
mgxo xbex `a Xzciom`vxem xzdp voocv xg jofgio e zod`ejdo [ovxozm jv`movv ~ezxmoz$
xbom Jozhpibeiiohgq {`dd beqo xg zovxzfxzo xbo ofgmgi`f ~dep`mk a`odh {`xb`m
b`v fgmxzp jp ioemv ga `mvx`xx`mk e voz`ov ga zoagziv `m gzhoz xg exxzefx agzo`km
jv`movv `mqovxiomx- @x zoie`mv hgjxad xbex Xzciom`vxem {`dd vffooh `m fdx`
qex`mk vxzgmk x`ov {`xb xbo [ovx jofevo xbo zd`mk Xzciom od`xo beqo mgx vbg{m
,Fbezdov L- Vdd`qem `v e ^b-H- femh`hexo `m ~gd x`fed vf`omfo ex Xbo Kogzko [evb`mkxgm
_m`qozv`xp- E Kzehexo Vxhomx Aoddg{ ex xbex m`qozv`xpv @mvx`xxo agz Ozg~oem$ Zvv`em$ emh
Ozev`em Vxh`ov$ xbo exbgz v~of`ed`|ov `m xbo fgmxz ov ga xbo agzioz Vgq`ox _m`gm emh bev
~jd`vboh ezx`fdov `m xbo Lguzmed ga Fomxzed Ev`em Vxuh`ov emh xbo [evb`mkxgm Zoq`o{ ga Xuzc`vb !
Ouzev`em Eaae`zv$ ev {odd ev {z`xxom e fgmxz`jxgzp fbe~xoz$ Hoed`mk {`xb Hov~gx`f Zok`iov< _-V-
Fomxzed Ev`em Zodex`gmv `m xbo ^gvx0'55 Oze$ agz xbo agzxbfgi`mk qgdio Xbo Bemhjggc ga Fomxzed
Ev`em ^gd`x`fv-
Xbo Lguzmed ga Omozkp emh Hoqodg~iomx$ Qgd- 68$ Mgv- 5 emh :
Fg~pz`kbx :>55 jp xbo @mxozmex`gmed Zovoezfb Fomxoz agz Omozkp emh Ofgmgi`f Hoqodg~iomx"@FOOH)- Edd z`kbxv zovozqoh-
5:5
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
3/9
emp `mfd`mex`gm xg oijzefo ioem`mkad ofgmgi`f zoagzi- Xbv$ hov~`xo Xzciom
`vxemv zomo{oh `mxozovxv `m xbo Oevx emh [ovx$ `x e~~oezv xbex Evbkejex iep jo
fgmxomx `m vxep`mk `vgdexoh azgi xbo hoqodg~oh {gzdh agz xbo moez xozi-
E Xedo ga X{g Xuzciom
@m dexo :>>1$ Xzciom`vxemv ^zov`homxagzD`ao Ve~ezizex Exepoq`fb M`pe
|gq ~evvoh e{ep- Ev `x xzmv gx$ v`mfo M`pe|gq "{bg zdoh gqoz ~gvxVgq`ox
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~z`gz xg b`v hoexb$ gjvozqozv jokem xg {gmhoz {boxboz xbo Xzciom vxexo {gdh jo
ejdo xg zoie`m e q`ejdo kgqozm`mk omx`xp {`xbgx `xv vdxem`vx`f zdoz ex xbo bodi-
Gqoz xbo fgzvo ga xbo morx ao{ hepv$ xbo zd`mk Xzciom od`xo gzfbovxzexoh
e viggxb bemhgqoz ga ~g{oz jp vodofx`mk Kzjemkdp Jozhpibeiiohgq xg efx
ev M`pe|gqv vffovvgz- @m Aojzezp ga :>>;$ Xzciom`vxem bodh `xv vofgmh
~zov`homx`ed odofx`gm v`mfo ke`m`mk `mho~omhomfo eaxoz xbo fgdde~vo ga xbo Vgq`ox
_m`gm- _mvz~z`v`mkdp$ Jozhpibeiiohgq {ev hofdezoh xbo odofxgzed {`mmoz-5
Hz`mk M`pe|gqv zo`km$ xbo vodavxpdoh Xzciomjevb` agzfoh b`v fgmxzp
`mxg `vgdex`gm jp `mb`j`x mk agzo`kmozv omxzp `mxg Xzciom`vxem$ zovxz`fx`mk ioh`e
gxdoxv$ fzj`mk f`x`|om i`kzex`gm$ agvxoz`mk e ~ozvgmed`xp fdx$ emh ehboz`mk xg
e agzo`km ~gd`fp ga ~gv`x`qo moxzed xp-: M`pe|gq edvg vgkbx xg or~gzx b`v
fgmxzpv qevx kev zovozqov jp fgmxzefx`mk {`xb omozkp fgz~gzex`gmv xg ~ezx`f`~exo `mxbo fgmvxzfx`gm ga ~`~od`mov- Ev e fevo `m ~g`mx$ `m xbo i`h500>v M`pe|gq v`kmoh
e fgmxzefx {`xb _mgfed "e mg{ hoamfx _-V- fgi~emp xbex iozkoh {`xb Fboqzgm)$
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~zglofxoh Xzciom`vxemEakbem`vxem^ec`vxem@mh`e "XE^@) ~`~od`mo- Pox$ fgm
vxzfx gm jdo~z`mxv agz xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo dx`iexodp {ozo vbodqoh `m xbo dexo 500>v
ho xg xbo gmkg`mk f`q`d {ez `m Eakbem`vxem-6 Bg{oqoz$ vbgzxdp joagzo b`v hoexb$
M`pe|gq h`h vffooh `m jzgcoz`mk e azeio{gzc ekzooiomx `m :>>1 {`xb Fb`me
fgmfozm`mk xbo fgmvxzfx`gm ga e ~`~od`mo vxzoxfb`mk efzgvv Fomxzed Ev`e-8
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azxboz h`qozv`ap Xzciom`vxemv kev or~gzxex`gm zgxov- V`mfo evvi`mk gaa`fo$ xbo
Xzciom ^zov`homx bev xz`oh xg fgmq`mfo xbo {gzdh ex dezko xbex bo voocv xg vxooz
Xzciom`vxem `m e mo{ h`zofx`gm jp fbezx`mk em `mmgqex`qo fgzvo xbex h`aaozv azgi
b`v ~zohofovvgzv ~exb- @m :>5>$ Xzciom`vxem or~gzxv `xv kev xbzgkb voqozed
~`~od`mov xbex fgmmofx xg Zvv`e "jp {ep ga xbo Fomxzed Ev`emFomxoz ~`~od`mo
vpvxoi emh xbo Fev~`em Fgevxed ~`~od`mo)$ Fb`me "jp {ep ga xbo Fomxzed Ev`eFb`me
~`~od`mo)$ emh @zem "jp {ep ga xbo Cgz~oloCgzhcp emh HedoxejehVezecbv
Cbemk`zem ~`~od`mov)-?
@m ehh`x`gm$ jp v`km`mk em ekzooiomx `m :>>; {`xb xbomZvv`em ^zov`homx Qdeh`i`z ^x`m emh Ce|ecb ^zov`homx Mzvdxem Me|ezjepoq
fgmfozm`mk xbo hod`qozp ga kev zovozqov xbzgkb xbo ^z`Fev~`em ~`~od`mo "fzzomxdp
XBO LG_ZMED GA OMOZKP EMH HOQODG^IOMX5::
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
4/9
vx`dd `m xbo ~demm`mk ~bevo) emh zoq`q`mk `mxozovxv `m xbo XzemvFev~`em ~`~od`mo emh
XE^@ ~`~od`mo ~zglofxv$ Jozhpibeiiohgq vgkbx xg azxboz h`qozv`ap kev or
~gzxv- A`meddp$ xbo mo{ Xzciom doehoz bev ~jd`fdp vxexoh xbex bo voocv xg zovgdqo
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zovozqov-1
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E~z`d :>>0 Zvv`e {ev `i~gzx`mk 8: xg 8? j`dd`gm fj`f ioxozv "jfi) ga kev azgi
Xzciom`vxem gm em emmed jev`v xg v~~dp Ke|~zgiv Ozg~oem iezcoxv- Pox `m
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xggc e xzm agz xbo {gzvo eaxoz em or~dgv`gm gffzzoh edgmk xbo Heqdoxjex
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zoie`mv mcmg{m ev xg {bg gz {bex {ev efxeddp zov~gmv`jdo agz fev`mk xbo
`mf`homx- Jgxb v`hov {ozo u`fc xg jdeio oefb gxboz agz xbo z~xzo$ {`xb Evbkejex
eddok`mk xbex Ke|~zgi zohfoh xbo kev `mxeco adg{ {`xbgx {ezm`mk Xzciom
gaa`f`edv emh Igvfg{ f`x`mk e hofzo~`x Vgq`oxoze ~`~od`mo g~ozex`mk vpvxoi ev xbo
zoevgm job`mh xbo kev or~dgv`gm-
;
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Xbozoeaxoz$ xbo mo{ Xzciom doehoz xzeqodoh xg Jdkez`e emh Xzcop xg h`vfvv xbo
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{gdh kzoexdp dovvom Zvv`ev omozkp kz`~ gqoz xbo agzioz Vgq`ox _m`gm "AV_)
zok`gm jp vozq`mk ev em edxozmex`qo omozkp v~~dp fgzz`hgz xg Ozg~oem iezcoxv-
A`meddp$ eaxoz e az`xdovv ioox`mk `m Vo~xoijoz :>>0$ Zvv`em ^zov`homx Hi`xz`
Iohqohoq q`v`xoh Xzciom`vxem `m Lemezp :>5> xg fgmaoz {`xb Jozhpi
beiiohgq `m e vbg{ ga kggh{`dd eaxoz em ekzooiomx beh joom zoefboh gqoz xbozovi~x`gm ga Xzciom kev or~gzxv xg Zvv`e- _mhoz xbo xoziv ga xb`v mo{ fgm
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V`mfo xbo zovi~x`gm ga xzeh`mk$ `x `v ovx`iexoh xbex Xzciom`vxem dgvx moezdp (5
j`dd`gm ~oz igmxb `m zoqomov ho xg xbo h`vz~x`gm `m `xv kev v~~d`ov xg Zvv`e$
{b`fb devxoh xbzgkbgx xbo zoie`mhoz ga :>>0-0
^`~o Hzoeiv
Ev xbo hofeho ga xbo :>5>v g~omv$ Zvv`e voocv xg efu`zo e moezigmg~gdp
gqoz xbo orxzefx`gm emh xzemv~gzxex`gm ga edd cmg{m kev zovozqov `m Fomxzed Ev`e-
^@^OD@MO ^GD@X@FV< X_ZCIOM@VXEM 5:6
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
5/9
Ifb xg Igvfg{v h`viep$ bg{oqoz$ Fomxzed Ev`ev xbzoo ie`m kev ~zghfozv
"Ce|ecbvxem$ Xzciom`vxem$ emh _|joc`vxem) edd omkeko `m idx qofxgz`vi$
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hgq vooiv xg beqo ievxozoh xbo idx`qofxgz ighod emh `v mg{ zoe~`mk xbo jomoa xv-
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xbo zofomx `mekzex`gm ga xbo Fomxzed Ev`eFb`me ~`~od`mo$ Evbkejex {`dd moqoz
xbodovv fgmx`mo xg zoie`m a`zidp x`oh xg Igvfg{ gx ga ofgmgi`f mofovv`xp$
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Xzciom`vxemv x{g igvx ~zgi`v`mk g~x`gmv agz azxboz h`qozv`ap`mk `xv kev
or~gzxex`gm zgxov d`o xg xbo {ovx {`xb xbo Mejffg ~`~od`mo emh xg xbo vgxb {`xb
xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo- [`xb zov~ofx xg xbo Mejffg ~zglofx$ `x `v ovx`iexoh xbex xb`v
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efzgvv Jdkez`e$ Zgiem`e$ emh Bmkezp$ emh xozi`mexo `m Evxz`e) {`dd fezzp ~ xg
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xbex xbo Mejffg ~`~od`mo jgevxv xbo v~~gzx ga e qez`oxp ga [ovxozm fgmxz`ov emh
xbzoo `mxozmex`gmed a`memf`ed `mvx`xx`gmv "`-o-$ xbo Ozg~oem @mqovxiomx Jemc$
Ozg~oem Jemc agz Zofgmvxzfx`gm emh Hoqodg~iomx$ emh @mxozmex`gmed A`memf`ed
Fgz~gzex`gm)
5:
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edd cmg{m kev zovozqov `m Fomxzed Ev`e- @m hg`mk vg$ Zvv`e ev~`zov xg zoxe`m `xv
vxexv ev xbo ~z`mf`~ed kev v~~d`oz xg Ozg~o- @m zov~gmvo$ Zvv`e bev gaaozoh xg
j`dh x{g ~`~od`mov "Mgzh Vxzoei efzgvv xbo Jedx`f Voe gmxg Koziemp emh Vgxb
Vxzoei efzgvv xbo Jdefc Voe gmxg Jdkez`e) xg vex`vap Ozg~oem omozkp hoiemhv-
Igzogqoz$ `x `v `i~gzxemx xg zofedd xbex xbo veaoxp ga xbo JecXj`d`v`Fopbem
~`~od`mo {ev feddoh `mxg uovx`gm {bom Zvv`e fzgvvoh gqoz `mxg mo`kbjgz`mk
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gqoz Ozg~o- Ev ga :>5>$ or~ozxv fde`i xbex xbo Mejffg ~`~od`mo {`dd mgx jofgio
addp g~ozex`gmed mx`d ev dexo ev :>:>-56
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ekzooiomx `m Evbkejex xg j`dh xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo- Xbo 5$12>c`dgioxoz ~zglofx `v
vdexoh agz fgi~dox`gm `m :>58- Gm ~e~oz$ xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo {`dd jok`m `m vgxbozm
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ekzooiomx agz {bex dggcv d`co iemp poezv xg fgio- Igvx mgxejdp$ edxbgkb xbo
XBO LG_ZMED GA OMOZKP EMH HOQODG^IOMX5:8
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
6/9
Ev`e Hoqodg~iomx Jemc bev k`qom `xv vxei~ ga e~~zgqed$ mg jv`movv fgmvgzx`i
bev ~zgq`hoh emp a`memf`ed jefc`mk agz xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo- Azxbozigzo$ `x zoie`mv
xg jo voom bg{ xbo eagzoiomx`gmoh kgqozmiomxv ~dem xg omvzo xbo XE^@ ~`~o
d`mov vofzo g~ozex`gm ev `x `v ~zglofxoh xg xzemvqozvo xbzgkb xbo bgiodemh ga xbo
Xed`jem "Cemhebez ~zgq`mfo) `m Eakbem`vxem ev {odd ev xbo mozqo fomxoz ga xboXed`jemEdUeohe `mvzkomfp "Jedfb`vxem ~zgq`mfo) `m ^ec`vxem xghep-58 Fgm
vouomxdp$ xbo axzo ga xbo XE^@ ~`~od`mo zoie`mv qozp ifb mhof`hoh ex xbo
igiomx-
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azxboz h`qozv`ap `xv kev or~gzxex`gm zgxov agz {odd `mxg xbo agzovooejdo axzo- @m
xzm$ xbo fgmxzp xbv {`dd zoie`m ho~omhomx gm Zvv`e gx ga vbooz ofgmgi`f
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{ovx{ezh$ xbom Jozhpibeiiohgq {`dd beqo xg `m`x`exo e jzoec {`xb b`v fgmxzpv
`vgdex`gm`vx ~evx emh kzeheddp xzemvagzi Xzciom`vxem `mxg e zod`ejdo jv`movv
~ezxmoz- @m gzhoz xg hg vg$ xbo mo{ Xzciom doehoz {`dd beqo xg zovxzfxzo xbo
ofgmgi`f ~dep`mk a`odh q`e `mvx`xx`mk e voz`ov ga zoagziv "o-k-$ zov~ofx`mk ~zg~ozxp
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{boxboz Jozhpibeiiohgq emh xbo zd`mk od`xo q`o{ zoagzi ev e xg~ ~z`gz`xp-5?
Ev :>55 g~omv$ xbo Xzciom kgqozmiomx bev mgx mhozxecom emp v`km`a`femx zo
agziv xg exxzefx agzo`km jv`movv `mqovxiomx$ {b`do xbo ofgmgip zoie`mv boeq`dp
zokdexoh jp xbo vxexo- @x xbv vooiv ev `a Xzciom`vxem ~zoaozv `vgdex`gm gqoz
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gqozbed xbo ofgmgip- Gmo fgdh evvozx xbex xbo igzo xb`mkv fbemko$ xbo igzo
xbop vooi xg vxep xbo veio `m Evbkejex-
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^@^OD@MO ^GD@X@FV< X_ZCIOM@VXEM 5:?
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
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8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
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^@^OD@MO ^GD@X@FV< X_ZCIOM@VXEM 5:;
8/7/2019 Pipeline Politics in the Post-Soviet Space: The View from Ashgabat, by Charles J. Sullivan
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