PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-4, NO-14 Snowman …reports.progressiveshares.com/ResearchReports/FR...December 11, 2018 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-4, NO-14 Please Turn Over Source: DRHP– Snowman

OVERVIEW: Industry: Logistics, Cold Chain and Cold Storage Logistics may be defined as a process which essentially involves the management or flow of things, materials, information or funds between the point of origin and the point of destination. In the good old days, logistics was a term that was used for transportation and warehousing; but as and when businesses expanded over the years; logistics now covers a wide range of activities like material handling, distribution, inventory control, order processing, packaging, import export custom clearance etc. With regard to the Indian logistics sector, the same can be differentiated into mode of transportation, warehousing (used for logistics purpose) and the type of services provided by the company. In the same line, cold chain industry too plays a crucial role.

What is cold chain? In simple terms, a cold chain is a temperature controlled supply chain mechanism while an unbroken cold chain is a series of uninterrupted processes involving refrigerated production, storage and distribution activities, along with associated equipment and logistics, which maintain a desired low-temperature range. The sole aim of the processes mentioned above is to either preserve or to extend the shelf life of products including foods & beverages like seafood, frozen food, agricultural produce, chemicals, pharmaceutical drugs etc., which are mostly temperature sensitive and perishable. Some of the major factors that could contribute to the growth of the cold chain industry revolves around the need to prevent wastage of agricultural produce and to try and mitigate food shortage. The cold chain market has a number of critical roles to be played in the upcoming sectors in India which has slightly limited exposure. With the change in lifestyle of Indians, some of the sectors which are currently underpenetrated and will be beneficiaries include Pharma, Quick Service Restaurants (QSR), processed food industry, organised retail sector etc.

The Indian food processing industry is one of the largest industries in India and is ranked fifth in terms of production, consumption, export and expected growth. The same accounts for nearly 32% of the country’s total food market as per FnBnews. Some of the major root causes for the growth in industry in India is contributed by changing lifestyles, working class (including men and women of all demographics), smaller and many nuclear families etc. In the fast moving life in the cities and towns, people are preferring processed and frozen food in order to save time, which has resulted the frozen food market to boom. The same concept of processed food is accompanied by the upcoming and fast growing QSR industry. On the similar lines of changing eating habits, higher purchasing power of consumers and a fast-paced lifestyle, the growth of the QSR industry is in turn benefitting the cold chain logistics industry. Of course the main aim is to prevent the fresh produce from getting spoilt, help maintain quick supply whenever needed and at the same time help maintain the standard of food or services provided and thus maintain the quality and taste of the product across various outlets. As per many analysts from FnBnews, the market for QSR and cafes chain is anticipated to grow at 20% on a y-o-y basis to reach Rs510bn (approximately USD8bn) by 2021.

CMP: Rs.33 TARGET PRICE: Rs.55 TIME : 12 months

SNAPSHOT

52 week H / L Mcap (INR mn)

71 / 32 5556

Face value: 10

BSE Code NSE CODE

538635 SNOWMAN

Annual Performance

(Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Sales (Net) 2249 1892 1943 2187

EBITDA 486 364 445 525

EBITDA (%) 21.6 19.2 22.9 24.0

Other Income 28 8 38 6

Interest 93 114 119 99

Depreciation 304 386 400 401

PBT 118 (128) (36) 31

PAT 205 (49) (36) 24

Equity ( Rs mn) 1671 1671 1671 1671

EPS (INR) 1 (0.3) (0.2) 0.1

Ratio Analysis

Parameters (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 18.7 15.4 12.6

EV/Net Sales (x) 3.1 3.6 3.5 3.0

M Cap/Sales (x) 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.5

M Cap/EBITDA (x) 11.4 15.3 12.5 10.6

Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

ROCE (%) 4 (0.3) 2 2

Price/Book Value (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

P/E (x) 27.0 (244.7) (156.0) 231.1

Share Holding Pattern as on 30th September, 2018

Parameters No of Shares %

Promoters 67,254,119 40.25

Institutions 1,519,692 0.91

Public 98,314,184 58.84

TOTAL 167,087,995 100.00

Quarterly Performance

Parameters (Rs mn) Dec-17 Mar-18 June-18 Sept-18

Sales (Net) 498 518 558 576

EBITDA 131 126 137 142

EBITDA (%) 26 24 25 25

Other Income 1 32 3 3

Interest 30 27 29 27

Depreciation 100 99 102 102

PAT 3 19 7 12

Equity ( Rs mn) 1671 1671 1671 1671

TM

Note: All the data is calculated as per Market Price on 10 December 2018

Page No 1

Snowman Logistics Limited BUY

December 11, 2018 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-4, NO-14

Please Turn Over

Source: DRHP– Snowman Logistics Limited

Exhibit1: Flowchart– Logistics

OVERVIEW: Industry (contd.) The current size of the Indian Pharma industry (as per FnBnews) is approximately USD27bn and is expected to double by 2020 where India is still projected among the top three Pharma markets in terms of growth rate and the sixth-largest market in terms of absolute size. To cater to this growing industry, cold chains and allied services will be of utmost importance. Moreover, it is also required for the imports from various countries through vigilant conditions like humidity, temperature, environmental conditions etc., which have to be maintained to sustain the efficacy of the drug being transported. Thus, India will require a very strong cold chain system to boost higher sales from exports. The cold chain industry has been constantly evolving with innovations to fetch better operational efficiencies. Thus, the industry at the fag-end plays a very critical role in helping other industries and ultimately boosting the Indian economy. In the current scenario, the strategy of some of the key vendors is to expand their infrastructure (which many a times is ahead of the demand) in order to grab customer’s attention and distract them from unorganized or local vendors. In pursuit of the same, the focus towards multi-purpose cold storages has also started seeing an up-tick. The Indian cold chain market is highly fragmented where the organised players are contributing anywhere between 8-10% of the cold chain industry. With GST coming into play, the picture is gradually drifting towards organised sector. Some of the major refrigerated warehousing players include Trenton Cold Storage, Nichirei Logistics, Group, A.B. Oxford, VersaCold Logistics Services, Kloosterboer, Nordic Logistics & Warehousing, Partner Logistics, Conestoga Cold Storage, Cloverleaf Cold Storage, Snowman Logistics, Interstate Cold Storage, Henningsen Cold Storage etc. Some of the major competitors in the industry on the Indian soil include Cold Star Logistics, Deccan Cold Storage Pvt. Ltd, DevBhumi Cold Chain, GatiKausar Cold Chain Solutions and ColdEx Pvt. Ltd, Gubba Cold Storage, Kailash Agro Cold Storage, M J Logistics Services, Schedulers, Snowman Logistics etc. As per FnBnews, the Indian cold chain industry is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 28% over the next four years or so where the market was roughly around USD13bn in 2017-2018. Some factors which propelled the growth during the year included amplified investments, modernisation (of existing facilities) and establishment of new ventures either via private or government partnerships. The cold chain industry is an emerging and fast growing business sector in India. Thus, it is bound to see few hiccups till the time the processes are standardised and the entire system is understood. To add to the same, issues of food shortage and food security in India are here to stay. There is some impetus and initiatives offered by GOI and other agencies which will help the industry attain maximum operational efficiencies. However, in order to achieve the ambitious plans; the Government should proactively: Develop multi-modal cold chain links connected via railways and highways and focus on fast track corridor for perishables Extend grants and subsidies for cold chain infrastructure development Promote energy efficiency and operational processes in the cold-chain Promote the use of negotiable warehouse receipts for notified perishable goods Endorse skill development programs for all levels of cold chain Support the development of a national virtual network or grid of cold warehousing and transport Relax some of the rules for cold chain equipment including refrigerated vans Develop improved business models by promoting producer owned supply chains Establish specific protocols linked with domestic FSSAI and ATP legislation for exports About the Company: Snowman Logistics (Snowman) is one of the leading integrated temperature controlled logistics service provider with pan India presence. The company operates in warehousing which caters to (i) Temperature Controlled Services (TCS) & Ambient services and (ii) transportation of both TCS and Ambient. Under the TCS segment, the company offers cold storage warehouses and refer transportation services to its clients while under the ambient services the company caters to non-temperature controlled warehousing and transportation. Snowman is promoted by Gateway Distriparks Limited (GDL- a listed entity on the Indian stock exchange) which is also the largest shareholder of the company with 40.25% of the total shareholding. GDL is also a leading supply chain logistics company. Apart from GDL, the company’s shareholding pattern is also powered by Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsubishi Logistics Corporation, International Finance Corporation and Norwest Venture Partners VII-A Mauritius. The company is chaired by Mr. Prem Gupta and managed by a professional team.




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Page No 2 Please Turn Over

Source: DRHP– Snowman Logistics Limited

Exhibit2: Industry Components Catered

About the Company (contd.) The company is accredited with ISO-22000 i.e. Food Safety Management System, ISO-14001 i.e. Environmental Management System, Food Safety Management by FSSAI, 4 EIA Approved Warehouses by export inspection council of GOI and British Retail Consortium for BRC global standards. The company caters to a large number corporates across various industry sectors like dairy, ice-creams, chocolates, poultry, meat etc. which are benefitted by the temperature controlled logistic services provided by the company. Some of the prominent customers which Snowman caters to include Hindustan Unilever Limited, Graviss Foods Private Limited, Novozymes South Asia Private Limited, McCain Foods India Private Limited, West Coast Fine Foods India Private Limited, Amrit Hatcheries Private Limited, Aavin Tamil Nadu Co-operative Milk Producers Federation, Shriram Distribution Services Private Limited, Kris Flexipacks Private Limited, Al-Karim Exports Private Limited, Indian Immunologicals Limited, Suguna Food Limited, Karnataka co-operative Milk Producers Federation Limited, Ferrero India Private Limited etc.

INVESTMENT RATIONALE

(A) Robust Foundations: The business of the company can be divided into customers of two categories who generate (i) low revenue i.e. low revenue category products including fruits, vegetables and other Agri-products and (ii) high-end product vertical comprises Pharma and Seafood. The Management appears to be bullish on the product verticals of Pharma. Sea food business in Vizag and Krishnapatnam is going very strong.

(i) Warehousing: Snowman is one of India’s leading temperature controlled logistics services providers. One of the offerings from the company i.e. SNOWPRESERVE offers warehousing solutions and services which is capable of providing a spectrum of temperatures ranging from +25°C to -25°C, along with a number of blast freezing facilities in key locations in India. The company caters to product segment including fruits & vegetables, seafood, poultry, meat, etc. In addition to the services mentioned above; the company also has distribution centres which help in easy assembling and distribution to all outlets; Port Facilities which help in improving the networking via facilities near key port terminals at strategic locations and a number of customer dedicated facilities.




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Source: snowman.in

Exhibit3: Logistics Flowchart

Exhibit4: Milestones Achieved

Source: snowman.in/about-us/

Exhibit5: Warehousing Facility

Source: snowman.in/services-warehousing/




INVESTMENT RATIONALE (contd.) (A) Robust Foundations (contd.)

(ii) Distribution: The company also provides transportation solutions via a robust fleet of specialized temperature-controlled vehicles. To favour the same, the company has primary transportation known as SNOWLINE which facilitates intercity transport of products. So, the company is capable of providing door-to-door service, customized milk run and consolidation of cargo. The company also has a secondary transportation service known as SNOWREACH which helps in distribution supplying to QSRs, retail outlets, restaurants, hotels etc. These vehicles are equipped with both GPS and data logging enabling real-time updates of the cargo while it is in transit. In addition to the refrigerated service; the company also provides retail distribution through a consignment agency model which includes order bookings & category management, invoicing and receivable management, inventory management, supply & tax administration, safe handling of payment collection process from customers, reverse logistics and safe disposal of expired and excess stocks as per government norms.

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Strength Applications

Palletized Storage employed with palletized storage across all its facilities, ensuring efficient cataloguing, storage, and retrieval of packages

Reach Truck equipped with state-of-the-art reach trucks, allowing to provide efficiency in package movement and storage within the facilities

Multi-facility, Environment Friendly Refrigerant

facilities at Snowman make use of environment-friendly refrigerants

100% Power Backup with Multi-Generators

complete power backup to ensure uninterrupted refrigeration for packages

Exhibit6: Warehousing Strengths

Source: snowman.in/services-warehousing/

Exhibit7: Distribution Channel

Source: snowman.in/services-distribution/


Refrigerated Vehicles has more than 293 state-of-the-art refrigeration vehicles in its fleet capable of handling loads ranging from 2.5 tonnes to 20 tonnes

Last Mile Distribution- Snowreach

has primary and secondary distribution networks in more than 500 cities

Plugin Facility and GPS Equipped Fleet

provide real-time tracking and updates of your products

Full Truck Load - Snowline provides dedicated and faster cold storage delivery

Customize Milk Run – Snowreach

provide customized milk run services for delivery of products to multiple destinations, employing efficient routes for cost and time savings

Exhibit8: Distribution Strengths

Source: snowman.in/services-distribution/




INVESTMENT RATIONALE (contd.) (A) Robust Foundations (iii) Value Added Services: It is the endeavour of the company to establish its name as a one stop solution. The company is not only a leader in warehousing and distribution, but also provides services such as kitting, labelling, sorting, stuffing and de-stuffing of containers, repacking and bulk breaking. In addition to this as a part of the value added services, the department also extends services like sorting grading, packing and washing select fruits and vegetables. Some of the major temperature controlled warehouses are facilitated with blast freezer which enables them to accelerate reduction in temperature by freezing the products to -40°C or so.

(B) IKEA- Another Trigger: Management believes IKEA is an important part of their growth plans in India and the company has recently tied up with the store in 2018. IKEA is an in-store restaurant which is also one of the largest in the world with around 1,000 seats and has the future plans to serve Indian as well as Swedish food. For the same contract, the company also intends to manage the complete back-end for IKEA in-store restaurants. The services would range all the way from inventory planning, ordering, vendor co-ordination primary logistics, warehouse management, order process from stores and having the required stocks delivered to the stores. Moreover, the intended services would also include compliance throughout the distribution network, inspection of quality and ensure product integrity at the same time. After the success at Hyderabad (which was opened in August 2018), the second store will open in Mumbai in 2019, which will be further followed by Bengaluru and Delhi NCR. If all goes well, then the tie-up will add to the topline as well as the bottom line for Snowman. (C) Constantly Evolving: In an industry which is highly unorganised, Snowman is one of the key players in this business in the organised segment. The company has 33 warehouses spread across the country in 16 cities and 500+ towns offering a capacity of nearly 1,07,200 pallets, powered by 293 vehicles for transportation services. The company has the most modern and updated technology for cold storage. The strategy of the company is such that they have set up temperature controlled warehouses in areas which are adjacent to cities business centres. As a result of which the doors to sourcing and or consumption of temperature sensitive products increases. The business of the company is highly influenced by seasonality. Now in a country like India, each and every state has a different requirement as per the variations in the temperature requirement. This variation and diversity, helps Snowman overcome the issues related to seasonality. Management believes there will be an uptrend in growth in times to come as well as there is enough demand in the market for the capacity that they will create. As per the understanding, management expects seafood demand to grow at 28%-30%. As per a research report by Crisil published in Feb 2018; the segments of meat, seafood and biopharmaceuticals are likely to drive around 13%-15% growth in cold-chain industry over the next few years. The report also indicated, that the industry will swell from nearly Rs24.8bn in 2017 to near Rs47.2bn in 2022. All these factors blend in well for providing further stimulus for the growth of Snowman. The company has an ambitious plan for expansion and has a vision to double its capacity from 1.07 lakh pallets to 2 lakh pallets by 2021. There is a demand which is anticipated for frozen shrimps and frozen fish in the global markets, thus this expansion will help cater to this upcoming demand.

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Blast Freezing allows rapid refrigeration of products to temperatures of -40ºC

Repacking in-house repacking facilities for products requiring appropriate cold storage packaging

Customer Order Processing robust technology for managing orders with dedicated staff for loading and unloading process control

Labelling every product stored is appropriately labelled, providing customers with valuable tracking information as well as ensuring streamlined product management

Stickering provides stickering services for the application of stickers and labels to products for final end-user delivery and use.

Inventory Management FEFO driven ERP system for customer inventory planning and order execution

Exhibit10: Value Added Services Strength

Source: snowman.in/service-value-added-services/

Exhibit9: Value Added Services

Source: snowman.in/service-value-added-services/

Financials: Snowman has cut down on low revenue generating customers and intends to focus on high margin business via high revenue generating customers. The company aims to focus on cost control efforts that would lead to better operating margins and profitability. Power, fuel and labour are the biggest worry for production; so in order to mitigate the same the company is looking at solar energy (on the rooftops) as a solution. This can help cut cost by nearly 8-10%. They have identified 2-3 such venues where solar can be installed. The company also intends to change all the electrical lightings in the plants to LED lights to save energy cost.

The company has already started showing green shoots in terms of profitability and intends to maintain the positivity at PAT levels. The company is currently focussing on improving the operations along with Capex, hence one should not expect dividends in near future. The capacity utilisation stood at around 91% as on 30th July 2018 where nearly 70% of the same runs at 100% capacity. The company's ability to manage interest payments has been improving since the last 4-6 quarters; moreover, the Debt: Equity ratio has been moving in favour of the company and gradually reducing.

Instead of just looking at the basic EPS, one should also look at the Cash EPS which hovers in the range of 2.0 to 2.85. The company will try and maintain volumes at around 90% and in terms of value one can see a price hike of 3-4%. The sector as a whole is seeing traction from investors. For FY18-19 the capex planned is to the tune of nearly of Rs800mn to set up three warehouses in Siliguri, Coimbatore and Krishnapatnam. As per the management commentary, the plant at Krishnapatnam has already hit the 100% capacity level (approximately 3,600 pallets). The company is currently identifying land parcels for the next stage of capex. It takes nearly 9-10 months for the facilities to begin its operations. This capex is anticipated to show colours by Q1FY20. The capex is intended to add nearly 11,000 pallets currently and around 15,000 to 16,000 in the next 8-12 quarters. The benefits of GST have still not started flowing for the industry, however with time, the same will begin to hit the bottom-line. Risks and concerns: The company is a provider of cold chain logistics solutions; as a result of which the cost of electricity and sensitivity to power cost is one of the major risks for the company. Any changes in the same in terms of interruption or adverse hike by state electricity boards may impact the performance of the company. This is one factor which if mitigated can boost the performance of the company. In the current scenario, the management has started looking at tapping renewable energy to lower fuel and power tariffs. Moreover, regular business related risk like, addition or acquisition of new clients or loss of the existing clients could impact the performance of the company; volatility in crude prices may increase the cost for the company affecting the efficiency and the major components of the fleet is outsourced in the transport and distribution network and so the uncertainties on the contracts prevails. Outlook and valuations: The Management has devised a plan to bring about a turnaround in the company. There will be constant capex, since the business in which the company is involved needs the same. The company will prosper via the spoke and hub model in times to come. Management has indicated that the cold chain industry in India is forecasted to grow at a CAGR rate of round 13-15% and Snowman is well poised to exploit this growth potential. Snowman is present in a domain which is largely dominated by some government agencies and many unorganized players. It is quite evident that there is an increase in the demand for integrated niche offerings where Snowman is already an established player; well spread (regionally) and is better positioned in terms of offerings which would benefit the company (along with other listed players in the same domain). The company has changed the business model and now offers transportation and warehousing services as an integrated solution as a result of which the company becomes a one stop solution / service provider. We believe that Snowman should be a strong contender to garner a strong market share going forward. One must keep in mind, that the following is a strong growth story in an upcoming sector. There may be many hiccups as an industry and as a company may have to face; needless to say, we are going very conservative with our target price of Rs55 with a horizon of 12 months.




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Page No 6

Exhibit11: Snowman vs. Nifty

Source: Ace Equity

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Documents

PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-4, NO-14 Snowman …reports.progressiveshares.com/ResearchReports/FR...December 11, 2018 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-4, NO-14 Please Turn Over Source: DRHP– Snowman