19
Initiating Coverage | 11 th August 2011 PI Industries Ltd. Dalmia Research Center is the research desk of Dalmia Securities Private Limited (the “Firm”), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision A DALMIA RESEARCH CENTRE REPORT www.dalmiasec.com Harvesting Growth PI Industries Ltd. (PII) has rightly placed itself for the next level of growth from the changing scenario of the Indian agriculture. The company has transformed itself to India’s only custom synthesis player, where more than 90% of the molecules are patented. Given the growing demand to feed a billion mouths, millions of whom transit to a superior diet every year, rising food prices and with the world's second-largest arable area the opportunities for PII are innumerable. At the CMP of Rs 984/-, the company is currently valued at P/E multiple of 12.3 and 8.4 of FY12E and FY13E earnings respectively indicating fair valuation. We have valued the company at Rs 1052/- which is 6.8% higher than the current price. We initiate coverage with a “NEUTRAL” recommendation. Investment Rationale Favourable dynamics of the agricultural sector The present dynamics of agriculture are quite promising for a good agriculture season in 2011-12. Government’s strong focus and policy initiatives to enhance agriculture productivity by declaring higher MSP’s of agriculture produce for 2011- 12 as well as indication of normal monsoon are opening up the increased usage of agrochemicals by the farmers to protect their yields and increased productivity. Burgeoning custom synthesis order book of US$ 300 million Custom Synthesis business of PI entails dealing in custom synthesis and contract manufacturing of chemicals including techno commercial evaluation of chemical processes, process development, lab & pilot scale up as well as commercial production. Order book of US$ 300 million with tenure of execution ranging from 2-4 years, this business unit is expected to be the primary growth driver with strong revenue visibility. Riding on new product launch, to outperform the industry PI’s agri-input business grew by 38% Y-o-Y in FY11 outperforming the estimated industry growth of about 15% for FY11 mainly on account of substantial growth of newly launched products over the next year as well as launch of couple of new products in the pipeline gives greater visibility in the agri-input area. Valuation: Over the next three Net sales and PAT is expected to grow by 30% and 39% respectively. The EBIDTA margin is expected to improve from 17% to above 18.5% over the same period. At the CMP of Rs 984/-, the company is currently valued at P/E multiple of 12.3 and 8.45 of FY12E and FY13E earnings respectively indicating fair valuation. We have valued the company at Rs 1052/- on combination of P/E, EV/EBIDTA, FCFF and FCFE on standalone basis (Contribution from subsidiaries are negligible) giving equal weightage to all, which is 6.8% higher than the current price. We initiate coverage with a “NEUTRAL” recommendation on this stock. Financials: (Rs in Mn) Particulars 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P Net Sales 4,622 5,428 7,193 9,025 12,109 EBIDT 581 815 1,233 1,744 2,465 PAT 172 354 641 1,001 1,459 EPS (Rs) 48.50 49.91 57.31 79.92 116.50 P/E 2.31 5.63 10.20 12.32 8.45 EV/EBITDA 4.12 4.22 7.26 7.94 5.41 ** Stock Split from Rs. 10/- to Rs. 5/ from 18 th August 2011. Rating : NEUTRAL CMP : Rs. 984.40 Bloomberg: PI IN Reuters: PIIL.BO Face Value (Rs)** 10.00 Equity Share Capital (Mn) 1252.00 Share Outstanding (Mn) 125.20 Market Cap (Mn) 12324.7 Book Value / share 187.91 Daily Avj. Volume 24771 52 W High 1209..40 52 W Low 388.00 Shareholding pattern (%) Promoter 63.77 Foreign 16.16 Institutions 0.67 Public & Others 19.51 Relative Performance Analysis PE Band Chanchal Biswas +91 33 66120525 [email protected]

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Page 1: PI Industries Ltd. - Initiating Coverage

Initiating Coverage | 11th August 2011

PI Industries Ltd.

Dalmia Research Center is the research desk of Dalmia Securities Private Limited (the “Firm”), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision

A DALMIA RESEARCH CENTRE REPORT

www.dalmiasec.com

Harvesting Growth

PI Industries Ltd. (PII) has rightly placed itself for the next level of growth

from the changing scenario of the Indian agriculture. The company has

transformed itself to India’s only custom synthesis player, where more than

90% of the molecules are patented. Given the growing demand to feed a

billion mouths, millions of whom transit to a superior diet every year, rising

food prices and with the world's second-largest arable area the

opportunities for PII are innumerable.

At the CMP of Rs 984/-, the company is currently valued at P/E multiple of

12.3 and 8.4 of FY12E and FY13E earnings respectively indicating fair

valuation. We have valued the company at Rs 1052/- which is 6.8% higher

than the current price. We initiate coverage with a “NEUTRAL”

recommendation.

Investment Rationale

Favourable dynamics of the agricultural sector

The present dynamics of agriculture are quite promising for a good agriculture

season in 2011-12. Government’s strong focus and policy initiatives to enhance

agriculture productivity by declaring higher MSP’s of agriculture produce for 2011-

12 as well as indication of normal monsoon are opening up the increased usage

of agrochemicals by the farmers to protect their yields and increased productivity.

Burgeoning custom synthesis order book of US$ 300 million

Custom Synthesis business of PI entails dealing in custom synthesis and contract

manufacturing of chemicals including techno commercial evaluation of chemical

processes, process development, lab & pilot scale up as well as commercial

production. Order book of US$ 300 million with tenure of execution ranging from

2-4 years, this business unit is expected to be the primary growth driver with

strong revenue visibility.

Riding on new product launch, to outperform the industry

PI’s agri-input business grew by 38% Y-o-Y in FY11 outperforming the estimated

industry growth of about 15% for FY11 mainly on account of substantial growth of

newly launched products over the next year as well as launch of couple of new

products in the pipeline gives greater visibility in the agri-input area.

Valuation:

Over the next three Net sales and PAT is expected to grow by 30% and 39%

respectively. The EBIDTA margin is expected to improve from 17% to above

18.5% over the same period. At the CMP of Rs 984/-, the company is currently

valued at P/E multiple of 12.3 and 8.45 of FY12E and FY13E earnings

respectively indicating fair valuation. We have valued the company at Rs 1052/-

on combination of P/E, EV/EBIDTA, FCFF and FCFE on standalone basis

(Contribution from subsidiaries are negligible) giving equal weightage to all, which

is 6.8% higher than the current price. We initiate coverage with a “NEUTRAL”

recommendation on this stock.

Financials: (Rs in Mn)

Particulars 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P

Net Sales 4,622 5,428 7,193 9,025 12,109

EBIDT 581 815 1,233 1,744 2,465

PAT 172 354 641 1,001 1,459

EPS (Rs) 48.50 49.91 57.31 79.92 116.50

P/E 2.31 5.63 10.20 12.32 8.45

EV/EBITDA 4.12 4.22 7.26 7.94 5.41

** Stock Split from Rs. 10/- to Rs. 5/ from 18th August 2011.

Rating : NEUTRAL CMP : Rs. 984.40

Bloomberg: PI IN Reuters: PIIL.BO

Face Value (Rs)** 10.00

Equity Share Capital (Mn) 1252.00

Share Outstanding (Mn) 125.20

Market Cap (Mn) 12324.7

Book Value / share 187.91

Daily Avj. Volume 24771

52 W High 1209..40

52 W Low 388.00

Shareholding pattern (%)

Promoter 63.77

Foreign 16.16

Institutions 0.67

Public & Others 19.51

Relative Performance Analysis

PE Band

Chanchal Biswas +91 33 66120525 [email protected]

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Table of Contents

Investment Rationale 3

Industry Outlook 6

Financial outlook 9

Valuation & Outlook 10

Price Target Derivation 11

Price Target Evaluation 12

Risk & Concern 12

Peer Comparison 13

About the Company 13

Business segment 14

Financial Detail 15

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Custom synthesis - the main growth driver

With the expected growth trajectory of PI Industries, the custom synthesis division emerges as the main growth driver for

PI as India continues to be the preferred destination for outsourcing custom synthesis and contract manufacturing related

projects. With over 14 years of experience, PI has created a knowledge database in the custom synthesis business over

several years to enable it to provide value added services and build trustworthy relationships with its key customers. It is

associated with the leading innovators in the fine chemical industry in Europe and Japan. A key attribute of PI is its

process research expertise and its ability to quickly scale up to commercial manufacturing. It has over the years proven

these capabilities by developing more than 300 molecules at various stages of process development with up to 15 step

chemical reactions. A primary differentiator for PI is the trust it enjoys with key innovator companies owing to its non-

compete business model.

Order book nearly 6 times the revenue

The custom synthesis division has contributed around 37% to standalone revenue (excluding the polymer business),

which is now poised to grow substantially over the next few years fueled by order book of US$ 300 million with tenure of

execution ranging from 2-4 years. As on 31st March 2011, this order book in nearly 5.6 times of the custom synthesis

business for FY’11 revenue. From FY12E, as per the management guidelines, the custom synthesis division is expected

to contribute around 40% of the total revenue.

The Company’s new manufacturing site located at the SEZ of Jambusar is presently under construction and will get

commissioned in the last quarter of FY12. The commissioning of this additional capacity will help in catering to the

additional demand and achieving the business growth in the coming years. With the commissioning of the new

manufacturing facility at Jambusar, the multiyear contracts and sound order book position, it is expected to continue to

contribute significantly to revenues and earnings of the Company.

Growing margins

Custom synthesis will remain a key growth driver for the Company. The business has demonstrated robust growth with

high margins. The custom synthesis division commands the highest EBIDTA margin for PI across the business division

at 21% and the management expects to increase it to over 25% in the next 2 years.

With consistent performance in terms of timely product supply, quality and services, PI has established strong credibility

with its customers thereby getting an opportunity to work on newly patented products, which offer better opportunities of

growth and long term prospects for the company.

Custom Synthesis workflow

(Source: Dalmia Research + Company)

Customer Enquiry

Secrecy Agreement

Feasibility Study Process

evaluation

Bench scale trials

Quality Validation

Pilot scale trials

Evaluation of cost

estimation

Customer approval

Manufacturing & Supply

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Agri – Input division to continue with growth trajectory

Over the years PI has shifted its core focus in Agri – Input business by gradually shifting from being a generic

manufacturer of the reverse engineered off-patent agro-chemical products to developing & having strong relationships

with global MNCs and having exclusive marketing rights to distribute their products in India. The key strength of the

company are-

∗ One of the leading agrochemical companies in India.

∗ Over 45 years of experience in rural marketing.

∗ Business built on strong understanding of crop requirements and solutions.

∗ Developed some of the best brands in the industry that are leaders in their category.

∗ One of the world’s largest producers of generic molecules like Profenofos, Ethion, Phorate etc.

∗ Dedicated team for product trials to generate data, product evaluation and for registration.

∗ Has more than 25 years of association with large multinationals for some of the products in India.

∗ Pioneers in the introduction of granular formulation and the largest sellers in that segment.

Product Portfolio:

Agri input business has achieved a robust growth of ~38% on YoY basis in FY11 and will find it relatively easier to

maintain and grow its margins given that several brands in our portfolio are segment leaders. There is also a concerted

strategy to develop strong market positions where a majority of its brands are either #1 or #2 in their respective

categories. As a result there is a premium created for the brands under the PI umbrella. An apt example for the same is

“Nominee Gold‟ which is all set to become the leading rice herbicide in the country. Acceptance levels are high as the

product is technically superior to all available alternatives.

Common Name Brand Name Common Name Brand Name

Insecticides Fungicides

Alphamethrin 10 % EC RODEO® Iprobenfos 48% EC KITAZIN

Carbofuran 3% CG (encapsulated) DIAFURAN® 3G Metiram 70 % WG SANIT™

Chlorfenapyr 10% SC LEPIDO® Herbicides

Cypermethrin 10% EC Colt® 10 Atrazine 50% WP SOLARO® 50

Cypermethrin 25% EC Colt® 25 Fenoxaprop - p - ethyl 10 EC JUPITER

Ethion 40 % + Cypermethrin 5 % EC COLFOSTM Pretilachlor 50 % EC ALCOR® 50 EC

Ethion 50% EC FOSMITE® 50 Thiobencarb 50% EC SATURN® 50 % EC

Imidacloprid 17.8 % SL JUMBO™ Bispyribac Sodium 10% SC NOMINEE GOLD® 10 % SC

Metaldehyde 2.5% DP SNAILKIL® 2.5 % Bait Plant Nutrients

Monocrotophos 36% WSC KADETT® 36 Seaweed (Ascophyllum nodusum) BIOVITA

Phorate 10 % CG FORATOX® 10 Gr Seed Treatment Chemicals

Profenofos 40%+Cypermethrin 4%EC ROKET® 44 EC Imidacloprid 48% FS DISPEL® 48

Profenofos 50% EC CARINA® 50 EC Imidacloprid 70 % WS FUNDA 70% WS

Propargite 57 % EC SIMBAA™ 57% EC Thiamethoxam 70 % WS MAXIMA® 70% WS

Thiamethoxam 25 %WP MAXIMA® 25 % WG

(Source: Dalmia Research + Company)

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PI continues to evaluate newer molecules and are partnering with innovators for the same. The in-licensing model helps

us to work on newer innovative products where we work extensively in the field promotion area, building on our

knowledge base before looking to scale up to the next stage. There are 7-8 products in the pipeline with at least 2 new

launches slated for launch in FY2012. With a portfolio of ‘blockbuster’ products in-market and a pipeline of exciting new

products, PI is poised to scale up its business this year. The focus will remain on driving growth through exclusive

marketing rights for very promising products by lending the best distribution and marketing support. PI’s track record thus

far stands testament.

Portfolio of brand leaders and patented molecules

PIIL is one of India’s leading players in the Agri-Input industry, primarily dealing in agro-chemicals, specialty fertilizers,

plant nutrients and seeds. Several brands of PII enjoy leadership across the industry in their respective categories. PI is

the only Custom Synthesis business in the country where more than 90% of the molecules are patented or are at early

stage of commercialization.

Unique business model with non compete business division

PI Industries Ltd. (PIIL) is following a business model which is unique in India and in such model initial scale-up might be

slow but after achieving the critical scale, the growth will be exponential with decent margins since it is the critical

supplier for most of the products it serves. PII operates in the Agri-input and Custom Synthesis business. These two

divisions mutually complement each other wherein PII can get into an agreement to market a product in India, for which it

is already contract manufacturing for the innovator company, if it feels that the product would be a success in India.

Strong distribution network

PII, a pan-India company has been in the business for more than 40 to 50 years. Company has all majority products,

focusing on a variety of crops. To support the growth for agri Input business, it has got a strong distribution network to

achieve the targeted growth with five zonal offices, 24 branches, 220 sales staff, 800 field staff, 3000 distributors and

over 20,000 retailers. In terms of the custom synthesis business, it is 100% export-oriented business and is basically in

the developed nations, where all the innovative companies are located, which is basically Europe, Japan, and bits of

America.

Exit from non-core business to propel the operating margin

Company’s strategy to concentrate on its core businesses of Agri-inputs and Customs Synthesis business is well

focused with the divestment of the polymer business to Rhodia, S.A., a French multinational speciality chemical major.

The deal includes transfer of all assets, people, plant facility, R & D capabilities, customer base and logistic network in

India. The deal was concluded in April, 2011. The polymer business witnessed significant pressure on margins because

of input-cost pressures. Post this transaction PII is completely focused on both high margin and highly scalable

businesses. The proceeds from the sale transaction give it the flexibility to fund the growth plans for these businesses.

Capex plan to sustain high growth

The Company’s new manufacturing site located at the SEZ of Jambusar is presently under construction and the first

phase will get commissioned in the last quarter of FY12. The commissioning of this additional capacity will help in

catering to the additional demand and achieving the business growth in the coming years. The overall capex is guided at

Rs. 1250 mn for this facility in the next couple of years, out of which the company has already incurred Rs. 750 mn in the

FY11 for expanding its existing facilities at Ankleshwar. The company is optimistic about funding its major portion of its

future capex requirements through internal accruals on the back of robust growth in the future without expanding existing

debt-equity ratio.

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Industry Outlook

Indian Agriculture in search of Second Green Revolution

Agriculture is the main stay of the Indian economy as it constitutes the backbone of rural India which inhabits more than

70% of total Indian population. India needs second green revolution to bring food security to its growing billion plus

population. Increasing population, high emphasis on achieving food grain self sufficiency, limited farmland availability

coupled with pressure to increase yield per hectare and growth in horticulture and floriculture will derive the usage of

agrochemicals in the future.

Key segmentsII

India is the fourth largest producer of agrochemicals globally, after United States, Japan and China. The agrochemicals

industry is a significant industry for the Indian economy. Stringent environmental norms in the West are causing

production capacities in agrochemical segment to shift to developing countries like China and India. The agrochemical

industry in India is different from the developed world for a number of reasons. Globally, herbicides constitute a large

proportion of the demand. On the other hand in India, insecticides comprise 67% of the market. Currently, in India crops

lost due to non-use of pesticides are estimated to be around USD 17 billion every year.

Pesticides consumption Share of loss caused by different pests

(Source: DRC + Insecticides India Ltd.)

Scope for growthI

India uses around 280 grams per hectare of pesticide, which when compared to Japan's usage of 11 kg per hectare is

minimal. The foremost reason being, in India only 25-30 per cent of the farmers are aware of the use of pesticides. The

avoidable crop losses due to pests in different crops vary from 20-90 per cent depending upon the crop and pest

infestation. Per hectare consumption of pesticides in India is one of the lowest and has the potential to grow at scorching

rate in the near future.

(Source: DRC + Insecticides India Ltd.)

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Growth DriversII.

Today, Government of India is concerned about Food security and to increase food production. But, the question is

how to achieve this? Is it possible without agro chemicals? Since the growth of the agriculture is linked to the

monsoon and income of the farmer, we have seen the farmers have started to invest in agri-inputs and more

specifically in the crop protection chemicals in the last two years. The Indian Agrochemicals Industry is expected to

grow at 7.5 % over the next 3-4 years due to growing need for food grain to feed above 1 billion people. Even as

India's population burgeoned by 17 per cent in the last 10 years, its farm output expanded at just half that rate.

Despite growing demand for food, the land devoted to agriculture has dwindled in the last 20 years.

Indian Agrochemical Market PI Industries Ltd.

Size (INR Mn) Growth (%) Sales (INR Mn) Growth (%) Market Share (%)

2009 59840 13.3 4621 13.9 7.7

2010E 65120 8.8 5428 17.5 8.3

2011E 67200 3.2 7193 32.5 10.7

2012(P) 72240 7.5 8913 23.9 12.3

2013(P) 77658 7.5 12109 35.9 15.6

(Source: The Hindubusinessline, Insecticdes India Ltd. and DRC)

PI Industries, which is in the agri-business for more than 40 years and having exclusive marketing right for

newly patented molecules have outperformed the industry continuously over the last three years. The

market share of the company is growing steadily over the years and is expected to 15.6% due to company’s

initiative to shift towards the high margin patented molecule from the low margin generic molecule.

Key growth drivers include –

∗ Limited farmland availability and growing

exports: India has ~158 million hectares of

gross cultivated area and the scope for

bringing new areas under cultivation is

severely limited. Available arable land per

capita has been reducing globally and is

expected to reduce further. The pressure is

therefore to increase yield per hectare which

can be achieved through increased usage of

agrochemicals. Indian agrochemical exports

accounted for ~50% of total industry size.

∗ Growth in demand for food grains: India has 17% of the world’s population and less than 2% of the total

landmass. Increasing population and high emphasis on achieving food grain self-sufficiency as highlighted in

the FY11budget, is expected to drive growth. The pesticide consumption in India is just 3% of the global

consumption leaving large scope for growth.

Population Pesticide Usage

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∗ Food Security: India is adding one Australia every year and it is estimated that by 2020, food grain

requirement will be 300 million tonnes. The food grain production has nearly stagnated since 1996. In the

last decade it has remained within the range of 200million tonnes to 230 million tonnes. With growing

population. So, food grain production must increase by 5 million tonnes a year. At the same time it is also

estimated that 20% of the area under food grains will shift to vegetables, pulses and chillies.

(Source: Economic Survey + DRC)

∗ Low consumption of food grains: The per capita consumption of food grain, presently quite low in India

and is expected to increase as the

income and number of middle class is

likely to increase. There has been a

sharp decline in per capita grain

output as well as grain consumption in

the economy as a whole. At increasing

per capita income levels, an

increasing amount of grain is

consumed as animal products, so the

total per capita grain consumption

rises fairly sharply with rising income.

The share of direct cereal demand in

the household food budget does

decline, but there is an absolute

increase of total cereal demand and no decline in its overall share in the food budget.

∗ Low Yield: India’s crop yield is quite low in comparison to world. Ensuring food availability for the 1.15

billion people necessitates higher yield of the farm products.

(Source: FAS/USDA + DRC)

The top three -

∗ 43% of food grains production comes from U.P, Punjab & W.B.

∗ 47% of oilseeds production comes from M.P, Maharashtra, Rajasthan.

∗ 62% of cotton production comes from Maharashtra, Gujarat, A.P.

Together, these states accounts for more than 70% of pesticides use in India. Pesticides use contributes to

higher agricultural productivity in these states.

Country/ Yield Wheat Rice Oil Seeds Cotton

tons/hectare tons/hectare tons/hectare Kgs/hectare

USA 2.99 7.94 2.79 871

India 2.91 3.19 0.96 486

China 4.74 6.59 2.13 1315

Pakistan 2.65 3.64 1.36 697

EU-27 5.37 6.49 2.69 888

World 3.01 4.22 2.07 733

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∗ Growth of horticulture & floriculture: Buoyed by 50% growth experienced by Indian floriculture industry in

last 3 years, Government of India has launched a national horticulture mission to double production by 2012.

Growing horticulture and floriculture industries will result in increasing demand for agrochemicals, especially

fungicides.

∗ Increasing awareness: As per Government of India estimates, total value of crops lost due to non-use of

pesticides is around USD 17 billion every year. Companies are increasingly training farmers regarding the

right use of agrochemicals in terms of quantity to be used, the right application methodology and appropriate

chemicals to be used for indentified pest problems. With increasing awareness, the use of agrochemicals is

expected to increase.

Financial Outlook

Growth to continue

PII’s revenue is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29% over FY11E-FY14E mainly on account of substantial

contribution from custom synthesis business. The custom synthesis in FY11 contributed around 30% of

the topline. From FY12 onwards, after the exit from polymer business, the custom synthetic business is

expected to contribute around 40% to the topline and by FY14 it would be the same contributor as

agriinput business to the topline.

EBIDTA and PAT margin to improve in FY12

The operating profit and net profit margin increased to 17.2% & 8% in FY11 from 13% & 3% in FY09

respectively, on account of improved margins in domestic agri-input, increased revenues from custom

synthesis and exit from lower margin polymer compounding business, better capacity utilization and

efficient overheads cost management. PII’s margins have seen an uptrend in the recent years and

expected to improve further in FY12, backed by new product launches and improving product margins as

well as exit from non-core business.

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ROCE and ROE are expected to continue growth

In the last 3 years, PII has continuously raised its ROCE and ROE, on the back of robust growth and

expanding margins, The Company has healthy return ratios with ROE & ROCE pegged at 31.6% and

27.3% respectively for FY11. The return ratios are expected to improve further in FY12E due to exit from

non-core business.

Debt – Equity ratio to improve further

The debt-equity ratio which is currently hovering over 1 is expected to cool off to 0.6 in FY12 due debt

repayment of around Rs.1000 million from the proceeds of sale transaction of polymer business. In FY12

and FY13 additional loan of Rs. 250 million and Rs. 500 million will be sourced for the expansion plan.

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Valuation and outlook:

We estimate PI to post EPS of INR 79.7 and INR 116.50 in FY12 and FY13 respectively, on a standalone

basis, as contribution from its subsidiaries are negligible. PI is currently available at 12.5x and 8.6x P/E

of FY12E andFY13E, respectively. On EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 8.5x and 5.5x for FY12E

and FY13E EBIDTA respectively. We have valued the company on combination of P/E multiple,

EV/EBIDTA, FCFF and FCFE on standalone basis giving equal weightage to all.

At our target price of INR 1052 per share, PI trades at 9x FY13E EPS. Even comparing with its peers - PI

looks fairly valued at its current valuations.

On the business front, our key expectations are based on solid business diversification both in

products and markets. Product diversification is important as government regulation play a major role

in the industry and ban on any product can affect sales significantly. PII offers this model of strong

diversity in market and product and on the market diversification, with a strong distribution network

spread throughout the country PI is sure make the new launches successful and withstand the

uncertainties due to monsoons and regional seasonality.

Price target derivation

We initiate with 'NEUTRAL' recommendation on PII Industries Ltd. Our price target is based on FCFF & FCFE

on standalone business with combination of P/E and EV/ EBIDTA multiple.

Valuation In Rs.

25% of weightage on P/E 262

25% of weightage on

EV/EBIDTA 226

25% of weightage on FCFF 296

25% of weightage on FCFE 268

Total standalone value 1,052

CMP 984

Upside (%) 6.8

Our valuation methodology is based on following assumptions

� We have valued standalone business on DCF considering projections from FY12E – FY16E and

discounted for same period.

� We have considered Risk free rate: 8.5%, Expected market return: 16.0%, adjusted beta: 0.68 and

cost of debt at 11.5%.

� Core business is valued on P/E and EV/EBIDTA multiple method, target P/E & EV/EBIDTA of 9x and

5x respectively on FY13E earnings and EBIDTA. Equal weights given to all the four method to arrive

at the final Target Price.

� EBIDTA margins is considered at 18.8% in FY12E and FY13E and reduced to by 50 bps every year

till FY16E.

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Price target Evaluation:

FREE CASH FLOW CALCULATION

Cost of equity (%) 13.60

Equity Return (%) 13.60

Beta 0.68

Risk-free return (%) 8.50

Expected market return (%) 16.00

Debt/Equity(X) 0.6

Cost of debt (%) 11.50

Cost of capital (%) 12.81

Terminal growth rate 6.5

Equity 125.27

Face Value 10

Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

CFO 12 7 32 214 1,224 1,309 1,511

Marginal tax rate (%) 26 23 23 25 26 26 26

Interest expended 183 182 172 240 232 218 188

Capex (346) (913) (250) (250) (100) (100) (100)

FCFF (380) (946) (256) (94) 1,066 1,154 1,364

Net borrowings 260 (535) 981 (678) 721 (85) (144)

FCFE (74) (1,441) 763 (714) 1,845 1,123 1,267

FCFF

Terminal Value 23,010

FCFF

(380)

(946)

(256)

(94)

1,066

1,154 1,364

Discounting year

-

1

2

3 4

PV

(256)

(83)

838

803 15,049

NPV

16,350

Less-Debt

1,807

Add-Cash

295

NPV for Shareholder

14,839

NPV per share

1,185

FCFE

Terminal Value Less Debt 17,197

FCFE

(74)

(1,441)

763

(714)

1,845

1,123 18,464

Discounting year

-

1

2

3 4

PV

763

(628)

1,430

766 11,087

PV per Share

61

(50)

114

61 885

NPV per share

1,071

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Peers Comparison:

Sales (Rs. Mn)

NP Margin (%)

Op. Margin (%)

P/E EV/EBIDTA EV/Sales P/Bv D. Yield Market Cap. (Rs. Mn)

United Phosp. 28091.4 5.61 17.38 6.3 19.02 3.3 3.22 1.27 72806

Excel Crop Care 7022.8 7.67 11.30 4.7 4.02 0.45 0.99 2.01 2058

Rallis India 10467.2 12.06 18.84 24.7 15.43 2.91 5.89 1.31 29623

Sabero Organics 4127.2 3.94 8.29 31.4 14.87 1.23 3.67 0.91 4464

Meghmani Organ.

8446.9 5.00 10.82 6.7 7.09 0.77 0.63 3.04 3356

Jubilant Inds. 2470.1 3.36 4.70 5.2 12.97 0.61 0.54 0 1516

Nag. Agrichem 5679.1 1.05 8.75 37.7 6.72 0.59 0.87 4.35 1719

P I Inds. 7185.6 8.92 17.20 15.6 9.96 1.71 4.21 0.5 9918

Risks & Concerns to our Target Price

∗ Drop in realisation beyond our assumptions, increase in cost of raw materials will have major impact on profitability of the company.

∗ The pesticide demand is mainly linked to growth of the agriculture i.e. mainly dependent on monsoons. These vicissitudes of the monsoon and the act of God continue to play the main role in the pesticide industry.

∗ Any delays in the operational time frame of the company’s new facilities in Gujarat (Baroda SEZ) would act as deterring factor for the company’s growth plans.

∗ The presence of manufacturer of spurious product ( starting from pesticides to seeds) may have an impact on the sales anytime.

∗ Government policies on crop procurement and ban of certain pesticides may affect the financial position of the company.

About the company

PI Industries (PII) is a leading Indian Agri-input and Custom Synthesis company. Founded in 1947, it was earlier

known as Pesticides India and was renamed PI Industries in 1993 to reflect its new diversified businesses. PII was

set up by the late Mr. P P Singhal, as an edible oil refinery unit. It later ventured into the agrochemicals formulation

business, which is currently its major revenue driver. In 1978, the company diversified into mining and mineral

processing; this business was later hived off into a separate company, Wolkem India Ltd. PII also entered the

energy metering business in the 1980s which was also was hived off into a separate company, Secure Meters Ltd.

To mitigate risks relating to its exposure to cyclicality in the agrochemicals industry, PII diversified into polymer

compounding in the 1990s. Also, in the mid-1990s, PII entered the CRAMS business, which currently accounts for

nearly 33% of the company’s revenues. From April 2011, the polymer business has been divested to Rhodia, S.A., a

French multinational speciality chemical major.

Plant Location: PII currently operates through three formulation and two manufacturing facilities as well as four

multi product plants under its three business units across Jammu and Gujarat.

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Business Segment: PII is into the following two business areas namely Agri Input and custom synthesis

• Agri-Input Business

PI is one of India’s leading players in the Agri-Input industry, primarily dealing in agro-chemicals, specialty fertilizers,

plant nutrients and seeds. This venture is the flagship business (unit) for which PI enjoys tremendous brand recognition

across several industry leading products. The Company has exclusive rights with several global Corporations for

distribution in India and is constantly evaluating prospects to further expand its product portfolio. Given the inevitable

surge in demand for food grain production in the agriculture sector, the opportunities for Argo-Chem Companies are

innumerable. PI Industries is favorably positioned to contribute to the growth in this space by leveraging its long standing

association with business partners and intensive network of distributors across India.

Most of molecules that PII sell in India are In-license molecules, so the kind of molecule product that PII are dealing in

and the new ones coming today in the market, easily they have life of not less than 15 to 20 years, before getting

converted into generic.

• Custom Synthesis Business

The Fine Chemicals business unit of PI focuses on Custom Synthesis which entails dealing in custom synthesis and

contract manufacturing of chemicals including techno commercial evaluation of chemical processes, process

development, lab & pilot scale up as well as commercial production of fine chemicals which find application in agriculture,

pharmaceutical, electronics, imaging, Printing, etc.. The Company has an impressive product portfolio as result of

exclusive tie-ups with leading agro-chemical, pharmaceutical and fine chemical companies around the world. PI has

made substantial investments in building state of art process research and manufacturing facilities of chemical

intermediates and active ingredients with special focus on strong process R&D capabilities. This business unit is

expected to be the primary growth driver with strong revenue visibility as India continues to be a preferred destination for

outsourcing Custom Synthesis and contract manufacturing related projects. With exceptional growth opportunities in the

offing this business segment is poised for great success.

The company has built a very strong customer base comprising of leading chemical companies in Europe & Japan, and

based on its strong reputation, the customer base is steadily enlarging. This is backed by world class R&D and

Manufacturing facilities to service its customers.

Insecticides

Fungicides

Herbicides

Plant Nutrients

Agro Chemicals

Pharma Intermediates

Specialty

Chemicals

Major Products

Custom Synthesis Agri - Inputs

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Financials (Standalone*) *Contribution from subsidiaries are negligible

Profit & Loss A/C: (In Rs. Million)

Year-end: March FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 (P) FY 13 (P)

Net Sales 4,621.8 5,428.2 7,193.0 9,024.6 12,109.1

Growth (%) 22.9 17.4 32.5 25.5 34.2

Total Expenditure 4,206.6 4,590.4 6,255.5 7,575.4 9,939.2

Purchases of Goods Traded 241 136 205 205 205

Cost of Raw Material 2,726 3,025 4,294 5,394 7,306

RM as % of Net sales 59.0 55.7 59.7 59.8 60.3

Operating Expenses 249 362 487 534 584

Personnel expenses 395 432 551 661 793

Administrative, selling & other expenses 488 529 664 810 972

Research & Development expenses 49 51 55 72 79

EBDITA 581.0 815.3 1,232.7 1,744.2 2,465.0

Growth (%) 87.6 40.3 51.2 41.5 41.3

EBIDTA (%) 12.6 15.0 17.1 19.3 20.4

Depreciation 111.7 127.9 152.4 163.0 173.0

Other Income 7.4 11.1 7.3 7.3 7.3

EBIT 469.3 687.5 1,080.3 1,581.2 2,292.0

Interest/Financial Charges 222.8 183.1 181.9 171.6 240.1

PBT 246.5 504.4 898.3 1,409.6 2,051.9

Total Tax 74.6 150.7 257.2 408.5 592.5

PAT 171.9 353.7 641.2 1,001.1 1,459.4

PAT Growth (%) 20,527 106 81 56 46

PAT (%) 3.7 6.5 8.9 11.1 12.1

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Balance Sheet: (In Rs. Million)

Year-end: March FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 (P) FY 13 (P)

Sources of Funds

Equity 35.4 70.9 111.9 125.3 125.3

Reserves & Surplus 890.7 1247.0 1913.5 2882.6 4195.4

Total Shareholders fund 926.1 1523.9 2106.3 3088.8 4401.7

Total Debt 2038.4 1503.4 2484.0 1806.5 2527.7

Secured Loans 1894.1 1053.2 1559.8 1594.5 2315.7

Unsecured Loans 144.3 450.2 924.2 212.0 212.0

Total Liabilities 2964.5 3027.3 4590.4 4895.3 6929.4

Application of Funds

Gross Block 2578.2 2912.3 3591.2 3911.9 4161.9

Accumulated Depreciation 796.1 920.4 1073.0 1236.0 1409.0

Net Block 1782.2 1991.9 2518.2 2675.9 2752.9

Capital Work-in-Progress 74.1 86.3 320.7 250.0 250.0

Investments 18.1 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7

Current Assets,Loans and Advances

Inventories 1,042.2 1,027.9 1,409.8 1,689.4 2,291.5

Sundry Debtors 922.6 1,030.7 1,762.6 1,865.0 2,714.0

Cash and Bank Balances 41.9 49.3 81.6 295.2 1,519.2

Loans and Advances 301.6 344.9 502.1 638.0 930.0

Total Current Assets 2308.3 2452.8 3756.1 4487.7 7454.7

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 972.1 1253.5 1701.4 2136.0 3067.0

Net Current Assets 1336.2 1199.3 2054.7 2351.7 4387.7

Total Asset 3214.2 3297.2 4913.3 5297.2 7410.3

Net Deffered Tax Liability (249.70) (269.90) (322.90) (401.90) (480.90)

Total Assets 2,964.5 3,027.3 4,590.4 4,895.3 6,929.4

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Cash Flow Statement: (In Rs. Million)

Year – End : March FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 (P) FY 13 (P)

PAT 171.9 353.7 641.2 1,001.1 1,459.4

Depreciation 111.7 127.9 152.4 163.0 173.0

Deferred Tax 32.7 20.3 52.9 79.0 79.0

Other Income (7.4) (11.1) (7.3) (7.3) (7.3)

Inc/(Dec) in WC (292.6) 144.4 (823.1) (83.3) (812.1)

Cash from Operation (35.2) (108.1) (731.9) (102.4) (849.0)

Other Income 7.4 11.1 7.3 7.3 7.3

Net (Pur)/Sale of assets/Capex (324.7) (346.3) (913.3) (250.0) (250.0)

Net (Pur)/Sale of Investments (7.7) 1.6 - - -

Cash from Investing (325.0) (333.6) (905.9) (242.7) (242.7)

Dividends & tax thereon - (17.5) (58.3) (109.9) (146.6)

Net borrowing 260.5 (535.0) 980.6 (677.5) 721.2

Equity Issue - 35.4 41.0 13.4 -

Share premium - - 121.3 77.9 -

Cash from Financing 260.5 (517.0) 1,084.6 (696.2) 574.6

Adjustments/Extra Income 60.4 222.8 (162.3) - -

Cash flow 12.1 7.4 32.4 213.6 1,223.9

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Ratios:

Year-end: March FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 (P) FY 13 (P)

Per share values

EPS (Rs) 48.5 49.9 57.3 79.9 116.5

Cash EPS (Rs) 89.2 70.8 75.7 99.2 136.6

DPS (Rs) 0.0 2.1 4.5 7.5 10.0

Book Value (Rs) 261.3 185.9 181.0 240.1 344.9

Sales per share (Rs) 1556.8 873.7 747.5 841.7 1132.0

Valuations

P/E (x) 2.3 5.6 10.2 12.3 8.4

Cash P/E (x) 1.3 4.0 7.7 9.9 7.2

P/B (x) 0.4 1.5 3.2 4.1 2.9

P/S (x) 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9

Profitability/returns/liquidity

EBIDTA Margin (%) 12.6 15.0 17.1 19.3 20.4

NPM (%) 3.1 5.7 7.7 9.5 10.3

ROCE (%) 19.6 28.9 27.3 36.2 36.0

ROE (%) 18.6 26.8 31.7 33.3 33.8

Debt/Equity 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6

Interest coverage 2.1 3.8 5.9 9.2 9.5

Current ratio 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.4

Other Ratios

EV (Rs. Million) 2393.4 3444.5 8943.8 13842.9 13340.1

EBITDA (Rs. Million) 581.0 815.3 1232.7 1744.2 2465.0

EV/EBITDA 4.1 4.2 7.3 7.9 5.4

EV/Turnover 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9

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Contact Details – Institutional Relations

R F Jetha President, Institutional Operation [email protected] +912230272815-17

Malay Kampani Vice President - Institution [email protected] +919831246854

Dalmia Securities Private Limited

‘Ideal Plaza’ 11/1 Sarat Bose Road, Kolkata –700020 Phone No: 91-33-22806544-49, Fax No. – 91-33-22806643

Website – www.dalmiasec.com

Khetan Bhavan, Flat No. 17, 2nd Floor, 198 Jamshedji Tata Road Churchgate, Mumbai – 400020 Phone No: 91-22-30272815-17, Fax No – 91-22-30272820

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