Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic … · 14:45 – 15:00 ^New advances in the seismic analysis of nuclear structures and equipment from the SINAPS@ project _, by F. Voldoire

0

Best Practices in

Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations:

Issues and Challenges towards

full Seismic Risk Analysis

2nd

International Workshop on

& hosted by

Organized by

May, 14-16th

2018

Cadarache, France

Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations: issues and challenges towards full Seismic Risk Analysis Cadarache, France, 14-16 May 2018

1

Agenda

Monday, May 14th, 2018 8:00 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache 9:00 – 9:30 Registration, welcome coffee 9:30 – 9:45 Welcome address

o Welcome address 1 (C. Berge-Thierry on behalf of CEA) o Welcome address 2 (Y. Fukushima on behalf of IAEA)

9:45 – 14:00 The CEA and French Sinaps@ research project session 9:45 – 10:30 KEYNOTE The Durance Area and the Cadarache Research Center Presented by CEA

o Introduction by the Head of CEA/Cadarache (research activities, nuclear facilities & safety issues) – by Ch. Bonnet / D. Dall’ava 15’

o Geophysical & Seismotectonical regional context – Focus on knowledge improvement through instrumentation effort – illustration on site effects characterization – by F. Hollender 15’

o Nuclear facilities, civil engineering & seismic safety topics – by F. Méméteau 15’ o Questions/discussion 15’

10:30 – 11:30 “An innovative approach to perform seismic risk analysis of nuclear facilities through the multidisciplinary Sinaps@ research project”, by C. Berge-Thierry, F. Voldoire, F. Ragueneau, F. Lopez-Caballero and A. Le Maoult [ID 10] 45‘

o Questions/discussion 15’

11:30 – 12:00 KEYNOTE “Conceptual framework for physics-based simulations in practical projects and interface to engineering demands”, by Ph. Renault [ID 76] 12:00 – 13:30 - Lunch 13:30 – 14:00 “A Practical study-case: the SINOP SSHAC”

by Ch. Martin, Th. Bontemps, A. Gürpinar and D. Baumont [ID 46] 14:00 – 17:30 Empirical Ground Motion Models and Simulations session (first part) 14:00 – 14:30 KEYNOTE “The interface between empirical and simulation-based ground motion models”, by G. Atkinson [ID 06] 14:30 – 14:45 “A preliminary study to investigate the regional effects on ground motion predictive models for Turkey”, by G. Tarnican [ID 65] 14:45 – 15:00: “Developing site-specific vertical ground motions for Turkey Part 1: using V/H ratio ground motion models”, by Z. Gülerce [ID 27] 15:00 – 15:30 KEYNOTE “Current status and issues of strong-motion prediction method in seismic hazard assessment for the national seismic hazard maps for Japan”, by H. Fujiwara [ID 23]


2

15:30 – 15:45 “Are the standard Vs30-kappa host-to-target adjustments the best way to get consistent hard-rock ground motion prediction?”, by P.Y Bard [ID 08] 15:45 – 16:15 Coffee Break 16:15 – 16:45 KEYNOTE “Calibrating the backbone approach for the development of earthquake ground motion models”, by J. Douglas [ID 19] 16:45 – 17:00 “The Bayesian model averaging of ground motion prediction equations”, by M. Bertin [ID 11] 17:00-17:30 PANNEL DISCUSSION 17:30 - 18:00 Flash presentation of each Poster (1’30 / poster) 18:00 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache to Aix-en-Provence

Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 7:30 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache 8:30 – 9:30 Empirical Ground Motion Models and Simulations session (second part) 8:30 – 9:00 KEYNOTE “Probabilistic hazard incorporating 3D simulations into no ergodic ground-motion models”, by N. Abrahamson [ID 01] 9:00 – 9:15 “The needs for filling the gaps in empirical data for reliable seismic hazard estimates: lessons learned from the GMPE developments”, by V. Graizer [ID 26] 9:15 – 9:30 “Uncertainty analysis relevant to the fault modeling method”, by C. Wu [ID 74] 9:30 – 12:30 Source Characterization for ground motion prediction session 9:30 – 10:00 KEYNOTE “Earthquakes and ground-motion variabilities: evaluation and impacts on physics based ground-motions simulations and associated probabilistic seismic hazard assessments”, by F. Cotton [ID 16] 10:00 – 10:15 “Capturing the source parameters controlling the high-frequency ground motion”, by R. Fayjaloun [ID 22] 10:15 - 10:45 – Coffee Break 10:45 – 11:15 KEYNOTE ”A double-corner source spectrum for 5.3 ≤ M ≤ 7.7 that predicts PGA, PGV, duration, radiated energy and apparent stress”, by R. Archuleta [ID 04] 11:15 – 11:45 KEYNOTE “Procedure of evaluating fault parameters of subduction plate-boundary earthquakes with surface fault breakings for strong motion prediction”, by K. Dan [ID 18] 11:45 – 12:00 “Scaling laws of fault parameters of intra-slab earthquakes and strong motion simulation”, by D. Ju [ID 38]


3

12:00 – 12:15 “Long-term rate of earthquake ruptures in complex fault systems”, by F. Visini [ID 57] 12:15 – 12:30 PANNEL DISCUSSION 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:30 Poster Session 15:30 – 18:15: Physic based ground motion simulation session: Dynamic and Kinematic 15:30 – 16:00 KEYNOTE “On near-field ground motions of normal and reverse faults from viewpoint of dynamic rupture model”, by H. Aochi [ID 02] 16:00 – 16:15 “Broadband dynamic source model for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using slip reactivation and EGF simulation”, by P. Galvez-Barron [ID 24] 16:15 – 16:30 “Parametric study of the slip distribution on the vertical strike-slip fault for different source parameters based on the dynamic rupture simulation”, by H. Kawase [ID 40] 16:30 – 16:45 Coffee Break 16:45 – 17:00 “Physics-based simulations of the M7 Kumamoto, japan earthquake: implication of rupture models for near-fault ground motion variability estimates”, by A. Pitarka [ID 51] 17:00 – 17:15 “Challenges for near-field ground-motion modelling using extended-fault rupture in moderate seismicity areas: model parameters and data”, by A. Dujardin [ID 20] 17:15 – 17:30 “Physically based Seismic Hazard assessment for Egypt and its implication on Critical structures”, by M. Elgabry [ID 21] 17:30 – 18:00: PANNEL DISCUSSION 18:00 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache to Social Event

19:00 Aperitif & wine tasting

19:30 – 22:00 Dinner

22:30 Departure of the buses from Social Event to the hotels

Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 7:30 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache

. 8:30 – 10:45 Fault displacement and long-period ground motion simulation session 8:30 – 9:00 KEYNOTE “Outline of the PFDHA Method and Recent Studies on PFDHA in Japan”, by M. Takao [ID 64] 9:00 – 9:30 KEYNOTE “Estimation of surface fault displacement by high performance computing”, by M. Hori [ID 31]


4

9:30 – 9:45 “Asperity models to predict surface fault displacement caused by earthquakes: the 2010 Mw 7.0 Darfield (New Zealand) earthquake”, by L.A. Dalguer et al. [ID 17] 9:45 – 10:00 “Numerical simulation of M9 megathrust earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction zone”, by D. Roten [ID 56] 10:00 – 10:15 “Extension of characterized source model for near-source long-period ground motions: experience of the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan”, by K. Irikura [ID 36] 10:15 – 10:45 – PANNEL DISCUSSION 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee Break 11:15 – 12:45: Site Characterization & Response – Site specific Studies session 11:15 – 11:45 KEYNOTE “Analysis of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion from physics-based numerical simulations”, by R. Paolucci [ID 49] 11:30 – 11:45 “The Argostoli Sinaps@ test-site: a tool for simulation validation and for a better understanding of phenomena involved in seismic hazard assessment”, by F. Hollender [ID 30] 11:45 – 12:00 “Argostoli site, from site test to numerical model: a holistic approach “, by S. Touhami [ID 68] 12:00 – 12:15 “Broad-band 3-D physics-based simulation of earthquake-induced wave-field at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (Japan): an all-embracing source-to-site approach”, by F. Gatti [ID 25] 12:15 – 12:45 PANNEL DISCUSSION 12:45 – 14:00 - Lunch 14:00 – 18:15 Engineering needs, Soil-Structure Interaction, Structural & components vulnerabilities & Risk assessment session 14:00 – 14:30 KEYNOTE “Interface between earthquake ground motions and structural response: numerical modeling and simulation of ESSI behavior”, by B. Jeremic [ID 37] 14:30 – 14:45 “From seismic sources to engineering demand parameters: an interdisciplinary framework for estimation of seismic losses in urban regions”, by A. Askan [ID 05] 14:45 – 15:00 “New advances in the seismic analysis of nuclear structures and equipment from the SINAPS@ project”, by F. Voldoire [ID 72] 15:00 – 15:15 “Multi-level modelling approach of structures under earthquake loading: contributions from the SINAPS@ project”, by F. Ragueneau [ID 53] 15:15 – 15:30 “Nonlinear behaviors and structural damping identification in reinforced concrete elements”, by C. Giry [ID 28]


5

15:30 – 15:45 “Shake table test of large scale structures subject to pounding“, by A. Le Maoult [ID 42] 15:45 – 16:15 Coffee break 16:15 – 16:30 “Progress in the understanding and modelling of components that could drive the overall fragility of a nuclear power plant “, by M.C. Robin-Boudaoud [ID 54] 16:30 – 16:45 “Framework for non-structural component fragility curve estimation using synthetic ground motions with conditional spectra”, by K. Trevlopoulos [ID 69] 16:45 – 17:00 “Equipment’s seismic fragility curve estimation using signals generated with GMPEs – Case study on the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant”, by F. Wang [ID 73] 17:00 – 17:30 KEYNOTE “Should we go ahead with the response spectrum?”, by P. Labbé [ID 78] 17:30 – 18:00 PANNEL DISCUSSION 18:00 – 18:15 Final conclusion and Closure 18:30 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache

Documents

Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic … · 14:45 – 15:00 ^New advances in the seismic analysis of nuclear structures and equipment from the SINAPS@ project _, by F. Voldoire