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Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply
Jack Forster (DECC)
Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply
• Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology
• Where did we start?
• How did we improve this to help inform policy on gas infrastructure resilience?
• Where do we want to take this in the future?
Where did we start?
• Previous analysis on physical gas flows across Europe
• Gas map (gas flows in/out of EU Member States)
• Bubble chart showing self-sufficiency, relative consumption and diversity of imports (IEA data)
Where did we start?
What are the important questions?
• Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to policy colleagues and economists
• What did they want to know?- How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during
peak demand time)?- How many pipelines/storage sites etc. are there?- How does the UK compare to other EU Member
States?- How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future
major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?
How did we address these questions?
• Comparative infrastructure assessment
• What are the sources of gas supply?- Pipeline imports- LNG terminal imports- Gas storage supply- Indigenous production
• Universal metric required for these imports
• Data needs to be available
How did we address these questions?
• Universal metric = Peak flow (PF)
• Peak flow = maximum output from pipeline in volume per time (bcm per day)
• Can be summed by source and by country
• Allows comparison across EU Member States
• Can be compared to peak demand
• Easy to understand
How did we address these questions?
How did we address these questions?
• Chart is useful illustrative tool but does not act as a metric for comparison
• We used a simple PF - 1, PF - 2 metric
• Similar to N-1 measure in EU Regulation No.994/2010 therefore familiar to Policy
How did we address these questions?
Where:
PF = Peak Flow (bcm/day)
EPmax = Peak capacity of entry points (bcm/day)
Pmax = Peak capacity for each indigenous production pipeline (bcm/day)
Smax = Peak output for each storage facility (bcm/day)
LNGmax = Peak output for each LNG terminal (bcm/day)
Dmax = Average 2012 peak gas demand (bcm/day)
Imax = Peak daily capacity of single largest supply route (bcm/day)
max
maxmaxmaxmaxmax%1D
ILNGSPEPPF
How did we address these questions?
How did we address these questions?
• How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)?- UK has a range of gas sources- Peak supply able to meet peak demand twice over in
2012, even after removal of two largest gas supplies
• How does the UK compare to other EU Member States?- Sixth most resilient Member State (PF-1, PF-2)- UK has most diverse range of sources- UK has less storage than other top 5 gas demanding
Member States
What are the important questions?
• Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to Policy colleagues and economists
• What did they want to know?- How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during
peak demand time)?- How does the UK compare to other EU Member
States?- How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future
major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?
How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?
• So far, we have looked at within-country infrastructure disruptions
• What about EU-wide supply disruptions?• European gas supply 2012
- 24% from Russia (116 bcm)- 21% from Norway (102 bcm)- 8% North Africa (Algeria, Libya)- 12% LNG (77 bcm, Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria)
• Clear risks here
UKRAINE19.4 53.2
121.0
Supply country
EU MS A
Supply country
EU MS B
EU MS C
EU MS D
LNG
How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?
How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?
• With the loss of a supply route, how much spare capacity is there in the system?- Gas sources- Max flow- Connections between countries- Time of year (demand, storage)
• Can we model this system?
How resilient is the UK/EU in case of future major supply loss?
Conclusions
• We now have good understanding of within-EU Member State infrastructure resilience, and appropriate methodology for a cross-country comparison of resilience
• Much improved on previous work in terms of informing policy
• Looking to the future, we need to examine EU-wide supply disruptions: this is the hot topic
Conclusions
Initial Results
Initial Results
Initial Results: German Gas Supply (No Russian Gas)