Photonics - Marketplace · PDF file• China companies are smaller, ... High Level Expert Group on Key Enabling Technologies Final Report, ... Integrated Photonics Innovation Manufacturing

Lasers & Photonics Marketplace Seminar – Copyright © PennWell 2015

Photonics: Global Markets & Regional Trends

orWhat do the numbers really say?

Tom Hausken, PhDSenior Industry Advisor

9 February 2015


Outline

• Global photonics market

• Selected regional perspectives

• National initiatives


$23 trillion goods made globallyIndustrial production is ~$23 trillion, dominated by:

• North America• Europe• East Asia

Nominal global output ~ $78 trillion.“Industrial goods” includes mining, extraction, fuels and fertilizers. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2014).


Global economy is uneven

Source: World Bank (2013)

GDP AnnualGrowth

at Market Prices(%)

A weak and uneven global recovery continues. Threat of deflation.2015 will be better for advanced economies, slower for China and oil-based economies.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (January 2015).


OIDA: Worldwide photonics production

Source: OIDA (2015).

Production Value

($ Billions)


OIDA: Photonics production by region

Source: OIDA (2015) using multiple sources.

Production Value ($B)

Optical StoragePrecision Optics

Machine ToolsSecurity

CommunicationsBiomedicine

Consumer Imaging

LEDs

PV

Displays


Outline





U.S. growth is modest but steady

2-3% annual growth is the new normal.Debt/credit slowly resolving.Long-term unemployment still high.Oil prices are low. Dollar is stronger.

Sources: (Left) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, January 2015. U.S. real q-over-q (chained, annualized, seasonally-adjusted) percent GDP growth. (Top) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2015. (Lower right) OANDA, using average daily interbank rates.

GDP Growth(%)

1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% Price of US$ in Foreign Currency

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)


U.S. component production

Source: OIDA (2015).


Selected U.S. component suppliers

Source: OIDA (2015)

Selected U.S.Supplier Revenues

($US Billions)

13% 8% 7% 7% 3%


NPI estimate of U.S. photonics suppliers

Source: Joint effort by OSA and SPIE for the National Photonics Initiative (2012). “Core Photonics Suppliers” were defined as those that have exhibited at one or more of 32 events worldwide during the past 2-3 years and that make and ship an optics/photonics component product. Values are for 2012.

TotalOptical

communications suppliers

Other core photonics suppliers

No. of U.S. companies

901 320 823

Annual revenues $45.4 B $9.5 B $35.9 BEmployees (U.S.) 174,500 24,500 150,000

How U.S. employee is defined

Plant is located in U.S.

Headquarters is located in

U.S.


US core photonics suppliers by revenues

75% of companies contribute less than 5% of U.S. photonics revenues

Source: Joint effort by OSA and SPIE for the National Photonics Initiative (2012). Data is for non-communications companies only.

<10% of companies contribute nearly 90% of U.S. photonics revenues


European photonics estimates

Sources: (Table) Photonics21, The Leverage Effect of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective, study prepared for the European Commission (2011) and Photonics21 (2014) using Optech Consulting data (2013). (Table and chart) EPIC and Tematys, Photonics Ecosystem in Europe(2013)

Photonics21 EPIC-Tematys

No. of companies >5,000 ~3,500*Annual revenues 65B € 65.8B €Employees ~300,000 377,000

Average sales/employee 200K € 175K €

Base year 2011 2012

*Manufacturers = 49%Component companies = 46%


European photonics production

Source: Optech Consulting (2015). Original values were reported in euros.

European PhotonicsProduction


European production

Source: (Top) Optech Consulting (2015). Original values were reported in euros. (Right) Photonics21 (2014).

European PhotonicsProduction($ Billion)


European “leverage”

Source: Photonics21 (2013). Values indicate membership by country.


China component production ~$30B

Production Value ($B)

Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy, LDK Solar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Jinko Solar, Renesola

Mostly manufacturing by foreign firms.

Camera lens fabrication & assembly, etc.

YOFC and foreign companies

Taiwanese firms, OSRAM, San’an Optoelectronics.

Han’s Laser, Unity Prima, HG Laser, Chutian, Raycus

Accelink (including WTD), O-Net, foreign assembly, captive.


Exports

Imports

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Production

What are we counting?


Why so many Chinese companies?

“Thousands” of Chinese companies• China companies are smaller, less consolidated than U.S. • Commodities• Contract assembly• Local government investment is not market-based• U.S./Europe/Japan stronger in design & precision products.

Solar & LEDs need to shake out• As many as 4,000 LED companies (?)• Eg, Suntech division declared bankruptcy


And then there is

US$ = CNY 6.057Source: Huawei (2015).

Revenues = $39 billion (2013)R&D spending = $5 billion (2012)R&D staff = 70,000 employees


China gains confidence in M&A

Reasons: • Cash-rich Chinese companies• Increasing management sophistication• Opportunities are better outside China

Acquiring Company Acquiree DateLightera (part of San’anOptoelectronics)

Luminus Devices June 2013

Hanergy Holding Group MiaSoleSolibro

Jan 2013June 2012

Accelink Technologies Wuhan Tele. Devices (WTD, both are part of FiberHome Technologies)

Dec 2012 (approved)

Hans Laser GSI’s Baublys and Control Laser operations

Oct 2012

Huawei Caliopa (IMEC spin-off)CIP Technologies (former BT, Corning)

Aug 2013Jan 2012


Exports$38.9B

Imports$12.5B

DomesticConsumption

$56.0B

DomesticProduction

$82.3B

Korea: Displays, solar, and LEDs

Source: KAPID (2015)

Korean Domestic Production ($B)


Displays• Market volatility• Curved OLED TVs, Galaxy round, LG’s G Flex

Solar cells• Hanwha bought German Q-Cells (2012) making it 3rd largest,

and is vertically integrated from Si feed material to systems.

LEDs: government forced withdrawl of major companies from lighting:• Market volatility• Government forced withdrawl of major companies from lighting,

providing opportunities for small businesses…• …but they lack resources and competitiveness against foreign

companies (eg, Philips, Osram, GE)

The Korean landscape


Japan, Inc.’s economy has been flat

Source: OITDA (2014). Values indicate nominal GDP; that is, current dollars not adjusted for inflation.


Japan: offshoring photonics components

Source: OITDA (2014).

Domestic production = $88.2 B

Offshore production = $86.1 B

Total = $174.3 B(includes components + equipment)

Photonic Component Production(billion ¥)


Japan: PV & LEDs up, displays & I/O down

Source: OITDA (2014). Includes domestic production of components and equipment.

Photovoltaic

Display & Lighting

I/O EquipmentOptical Comm.Laser ProcessingOptical StorageMeas./Sensing


Taiwan: Falling share of production

Source: PIDA (2014).

DomesticProduction Value

($B)

Share ofGlobal Production


Taiwan production

Epistar + Forepi merger:$900M revenue480 MOCVD tools

Taiwan Domestic Production ($B)

Source: PIDA (2014).


Outline





The range of public R&D spending

Distributionof Public

R&D Funding

Source: High Level Expert Group on Key Enabling Technologies Final Report, European Commission (June 2011). *Asterisk indicates values from the U.S. National Science Foundation report Science and Engineering Indicators 2012, citing internal data. NSF values refer to fiscal year 2009, and to total federal spending, not just R&D performed by government agencies themselves.


E.U. Horizon 2020 and photonics fundingE.U. Budget = €145 billion Competitiveness = € 17.6 billion

2014‐2020 (7‐year) budget:Horizon 2020 budget ~ €11 billion/year avg.Photonics PPP = € 100 million/year avg.

Sources: European budget data from ec.europa.eu (2014). Photonics budget data from Photonics21 (2014).


U.S. govt funding for photonics

Source: U.S. government agency budget documents (FY2014) and correspondence with agency staff.

Program FY2012 Funding ($M)Dept. of Defense

Air Force & MDA (mostly DEW) 343

DARPA 197

Army (night vision) 151

DOD subtotal 691 691

Dept. of Energy (excl. fusion energy)

PV 285

LEDs 26

DOE subtotal 311 311

NSF 100

NIST [TBD]

NASA [TBD]

Total >1,100


NNMI IMIs announced so farInstitute Consortium Headquarters

(Award Date)Managing Agency

America Makes: National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII)

NCDMM, Youngstown, Ohio (August 2012)

DOD

Next Generation Power Electronics Manufacturing Innovation Institute

North Carolina State Univ. (Jan 2014)

DOE—Office of EERE

Design Manufacturing & Design Innovation (DMDI) Institute

UI Labs, Chicago (Feb 2014)

DOD—Army R&D Command

Lightweight & Modern Metals Manufacturing Innovation (LM3I) Institute

EWI, Detroit(Feb 2014)

DOD—Off. Naval Research

Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Innovation

Univ. of Tenn.-Knoxville (Jan 2015)

DOE—Office of EERE

Integrated Photonics Innovation Manufacturing Institute (IP-IMI)

TBD DOD—AFRL

Flexible Hybrid Electronics ManufacturingInnovation Institute

TBD DOD—AFRL

Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing IMI

TBD DOE—Office of EERE

• President Obama proposed a national network of regional Institutes for Manufacturing Innovation (IMIs) in 2012—one-time $1B investment for up to 15 institutes.

• NNMI funding is now authorized for the remaining 7 institutes from existing funds, to be managed through NIST.


NIST AMTech consortium grants

iNEMI-MIT collaboration:Jim McElroy—Exec. DirectorBob Pfahl—Principal InvestigatorLionel Kimerling—Principal Investigator

University of Rochester, CEIS: Paul Ballantine—CEIS Deputy DirectorNew York PhotonicsRochester Inst. Of Technology (RIT)


Other U.S. roadmapping efforts

U.S. Dept. of Energy: Solid-State Lighting R&D Manufacturing Roadmap

SEMI: International Technology Roadmap for PV

U.S. Dept. of Energy: Exascale Initiative

OIDA, IEEE 802.3 and other trade group and standards efforts


Other photonics advocacy


Thank you!

¿Questions?

[email protected]

Documents

Photonics - Marketplace · PDF file• China companies are smaller, ... High Level Expert Group on Key Enabling Technologies Final Report, ... Integrated Photonics Innovation Manufacturing