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Photonics becomes greener over the next decade Michael S. Lebby GM & CTO [email protected] Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc

Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Page 1: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

[email protected] Copyright ©

1

Photonics becomes greener over the next

decadeMichael S. Lebby

GM & CTO

[email protected]

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

Page 2: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

[email protected] Copyright ©

3 key takeaways…

• Photonics enables many things and is part of our lifestyle

• Photonics will be designed for many products and applications

• Photonics is green and will enable new technologies and products that will also be green…

Lifestyle, photonics, green

Page 3: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Green photonics…Long term impact

Page 4: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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USA’s biggest (passive) weapon

• Saving energy less oil less dependence on fossil fuels

It’s a lifestyle…turn things off…

Page 5: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Photonics in renewables…• Barrier: Scaling up renewable GW in our infrastructure

– Cost of renewable electricity– Performance and reliability– Infrastructure robustness and capacity– Simplfying dispatchable energy (wind)

• Barrier: Obsoleting petroleum (fossil) based fuels– Cellulosic ethanol cost (wood, grass, non-edible plants)– Life cycle sustainability of biofuels– Fuels infrastructure, standards, metrics– Demand, utilization and intermediate blends

• Barrier: Shrinking energy demand of buildings, automotives, etc– Coordinated implementation of model building codes– Market does not value efficiency– Cost of energy efficient technologies– Performance and reliability of new technologies

Sources: NREL, Dan Arvizu

Decade programs: attitude cultural

Page 6: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Will the oil era come to an end?

The start of a new era of creative, innovative

technologies

Oil era slows

Source: Christoph Harder Swiss Laser Network, Oerlikon Solar, Uppsala hydrocarbon depletion study group

Stage entry for new technology…

Page 7: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Whole planet?

• 50yrs, • 100yrs, • If ever?

Sources: Kurtz NREL

Important issue in public minds…

Page 8: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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The green value chain…

Technology Breadth

Value Chain

Service

Providers

Systems

Modules

Components

Sources: OIDA research, Translucent Inc

TelecomModules

TelecomDevices

SensingIndustrialDevices

Green - eco-system and energy efficient designGreen photonics systems and component

Home display, solar cell, lighting windows/panels

MilitarySpec

Devices

Medical &High Power

Lasers

LightingModules

AdvancedMaterials

Nano/BioPackages

SensingIndustrialModules

LightingDevices

Growing green impact Existing and growing green impact

Solar &EnergyDevices

Wireline/wireless carriers; lighting architects; consumer services; media/content providers

DisplayDevices

Solar &Energy

Modules

Defense SecurityModules

High PowerLaser

Modules

Green has a huge impact in society…

Page 9: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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In a decade…

• A truly green vehicle with LEDs and solar panels…

Sources: Philips Lumileds, OIDA, George Craford

Extreme but effective…

Page 10: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Photonics markets...are already global

Page 11: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Asia dominant in OE/photonics

• Asia owned 81%of global 2009 OEmarket of $353B USA

11%

Canada1%

Japan30%

Taiwan22%

China8%

Other Asia3%

South Korea17%

France1%

Germany1%

Netherlands3%

Italy0%

UK1%

Other Europe2%2009

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

North America & Europe minor players

Page 12: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Market share in 2021

• USA – Down 11% 8%

USA8%

Canada1%

Japan24%

Taiwan23%

China14%

Other Asia3%

South Korea18%

France1%

Germany3% Netherlands

3%

Italy0%

UK0%

Other Europe2%2021

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Asia remains strong

Page 13: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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OE/photonics market by major location

• By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%• Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Reve

nues

($Bi

llion

)

Europe

Asia

North America

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Asian infrastructure strongest

Page 14: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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OE/photonics market by country

• By 2021, OE/photonicswill be a $500Bbusiness with many countries contributing…

• China grows quickly• US constant

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

)

Other Europe

UK

Italy

Netherlands

Germany

France

South Korea

Other Asia

China

Taiwan

Japan

Canada

USA

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Design + manf off-shore

Page 15: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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USA decade trends remain flat

• Optical fiber communications and components strong

• Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

)

Photonic lighting

Precision optical lens and laser

Optical fiber comm

Optical storage

Optical I/O devices

Flat panel displays

Optical components

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

USA exporting photonics jobs?

Page 16: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Green photonics will grow...

Page 17: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Global OE/photonics market• Growing from $353B in 2009 to $516B in 2021

– FPD big driver 3.9% CAGR; SSL still best growth at 29% CAGR

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.020

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

) Photonic lighting

Precision optical lens and laser

Optical fiber comm

Optical storage

Optical I/O devices

Flat panel displays

Optical componentsFPD

Lighting

Dog-leg slow down

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Outlook is strong for photonics…

Page 18: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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Defining ‘green photonics’…• Contribution of photonics is considered “green” if it

– Generates or conserves energy– Reduces greenhouse gas emissions– Reduces pollution– Yields a more environmentally sustainable outcome– Improves human health

• Methodology– Start with base optoelectronics market forecast– Analyze OE segments for green criteria– Aggregate all green segments for market total– Identify green elements of segments– Forecast the penetration rate to 2021– Expect criteria for green stringent

• Slowing penetration rates

Optoelectronic componentsHBLEDStd ledLED ModuleLinear CCDArea CCDContact image sensorCMOS image sensorSolar cell

Flat panel displaysLCD (tft)LCD (tn, stn)PDPVFDOLEDMicrodisplayLTPS TFT

Optical I/O devicesDSCCopierFax machineMulti-functional productLaser printerBar code readerScanner

Optical storageConsumer disc playerOptical disc player for PCRe-writable discOptical disc titles

Optical fiber commsOptical cableOptical passive componentsOptical communication equipmentOptical active componentsOptical modules

Precision optical lens and laserLasersPrecision optical lensLaser application equipmentsOptical lens

Solid state lightingIn-Organic LEDOrganic LED

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Systematically reviewing OE segments…

Page 19: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Global OE components mkt• Green portion grows quickly over decade

– 13.3% ($46.6B) in 2008 to 52% ($243B) in 2021

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

s)

green total

Balance of Mkt

Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates

General acceptance of energy efficiency…

Page 20: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Green OE by segment• FPD largest growing to $110B by 2021

– OE components 2nd, reflecting large role of PV and HBLEDs

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

)

Green photonic lighting

Green precision optical lens and laser

Green optical fiber comm

Green optical storage

Green optical I/O devices

Green flat panel displays

Green optical components

Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates

Consumer applications big driver for green

Page 21: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Networks must address scaling...

Page 22: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle

• Social lifestyle personal lifestyle

Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange

Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access

Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable

Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT

Lifestyle drives PAN BAN

Page 23: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters

Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09

450M

When will the trend slow down?

500M

Page 24: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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from Exa to Zetta-bytes…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012

Driven by consumer internet…

Page 25: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gb/

s

Year

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Gap???

Will traffic >> capacity???

Source: R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

1Tbps

10Tbps

1Pbps

Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?

Page 26: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gb/

s

Year

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Will the price stop us from down loading data?

Source: R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

1Tbps

10Tbps

1Pbps

Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…

Page 27: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Networks must address energy...

Page 28: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%)

• IP over DWDM transport:– Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment– Maximize architecture and equipment scalability

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Challenge: contain energy footprint

Page 29: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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Cost for power and cooling in data centers

• Year 2000– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is

the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready

• Year 2006– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a

given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor

• Year 2010– Three cooling challenges

• System, rack, data center• Year 2021

– Green designs imperative…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC

Power and cooling spending out of control…

Page 30: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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Broadband technology

• Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Denmark

Netherlan

ds

Norway

Switzerl

and

Iceland

SwedenKore

a

Finlan

d

Luxe

mbourg

Canada

United King

dom

Belgium

France

German

y

United Stat

es

Austra

liaJa

pan

Austria

New Zea

landSpa

in

Irelan

dIta

ly

Czech

Rep

ublic

Hungary

Portug

al

Greece

Poland

Slovak R

epub

lic

Turkey

Mexico

Subs

crib

ers

Other Fibre/LAN CableDSL

Source: OECD

What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

Page 31: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Architecture evolution – FTTH access

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG

Power consumption expected to rise fast…

Page 32: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Translucent Inc

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Photonic integrated circuits save power

• Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing

– Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability

– Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W

Sources: Lightwire, IBM

Tighter integration leads to lower power

Page 33: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Photonics will become

integrated...

Page 34: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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Moore’s Law photonics to follow?

Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel

CMOS very successful can we learn?

Page 35: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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PIC trends over 3 decades

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Com

pone

nt c

ount COBRA/35P

PhilipsOpto+LucentNTTInfineraFoundry

Anal

og

Nanophotonic Integration Technology

GenericIntegration Technology

Dig

ital

Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008

InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS)III-V on silicon (3-5OS)

Photonics is expected to become digital…

Page 36: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Integrated photonics over 4 decades…

Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007)1.S.E. Miller, 19692.I. Hayashi, 19703.J. Shibata, 19844.O. Wada, 19865.T. Koch, 19916.M. Zirngibl, 19957.C. Steenbergen, 19968.C. Herben, 19999.L. Coldren, 200210.Y. Yoshikuni, 200211.Y. Suzaki, 200212.M. Masanovic, 200313.ASIP/III-V, 200414. R. Nagarajan, 200515. R. Nagarajan, 200616. M. Kato, 200717. R. Nagarajan, 2007

Not shown (EDG-WDM):V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002;V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003;A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005;V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005

Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin

1

10

1000

Poised for big impact in fiber comms

100

Page 37: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Consumer must be ‘green’

southern4life.blogspot.comWarner brothers

Page 38: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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New decade opportunities

• System integration– Take a display and incorporate it into a ‘cool’ product

• iphone, fridge, golf cart …• Modify for niche markets

– Medical - resolution, bit depth …– Defense – ruggedness, portability …– Sports – weight, form factor …

COLOR

B&W

HDTV

3D?

Sources: Colorlink, RCA, Motorola, Sony, Philips

We see things in 3D!

System integration, niche, and 3D?

Page 39: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Displays going green & energy efficient

• US TVs consumed ~70 billion kWh– ~4% residential electricity use

• TV power consumption scales with screen size

– Projection lower power than plasma• Laser projection TV offers major power

savings – For 60”-65” class TV

• Plasma 524W, LCD 525W, Laser projection 135W

• Sony XEL-1 OLED TV power consumption matches trend

• Mature but rapidly disappearing CRT TVs are relatively efficient

• Plasma makes comeback via 3D!– Fast response times needed

Source: NRDC

Projection and OLED TVs save power

Page 40: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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OLED displays (green) have caught imagination of the public…

• OLED displays although successful in small displays struggling with TV/large displays…– The performance attributes of OLED displays –

thinness, high contrast, high response speed, … allow designers to differentiate their product

Sources: Sony, Nokia, iRiverSources: Phil Wright, OIDA

Organic LED…so we don’t use pesticide

?? ok

Page 41: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Projection photonics

Page 42: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Projection: new diode laser market?

• Consumers will find new opportunities to utilize

• Being able to enhance life at anywhere, anytime, anyplace

Sources: OIDA, Novalux, TI

Holidays InterestsBusiness

Fun

New lifestyle using laser technology

Page 43: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Challenges for the display industry…

• What exists 2” display in 8oz package• What the market desires 20” display in

8oz package

2”

20”

Sources: OIDA, TI, TNS Research in Japan, August 2004

Projection offers one solution

Page 44: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Projection technology roadmap2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Traditional projection technologies

Class: mobileUse: travel in pc caseTechnology: UHP

Future projection technologies

Class: pocketUse: wearableTechnology: LED, Laser

Weight (lb)Volume (cu-in)

Source: OIDA

30 20 10 1 0.5 0.1200 100 50 30 25 20 15

27 lb

>4x(increase)400L

2 lb

1700L

>10x(decrease)

~15L/lb

~850L/lb

1 lb

>4x(increase)20-50L

0.1 lb

80-200L>10x(decrease)

~50L/lb

~800L/lb

Green diode laser 515nm

Pico-projector PDA w/direct LD

Challenge to shrink and be brighter

Page 45: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Blue-green material progress

Source: OIDA research, Kaai, UCSB

Green laser diode efficient green LEDs

Page 46: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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LED market trends

Page 47: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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HBLED decade trends

• Industry nearing $20B, and lighting >$7B, in 2021

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Reve

nue

($M

illio

n)

Conventional

Signs/Other

Signals

Lighting

Notebooks

Handset

Handheld

Vehicular

Source: OIDA research

Driven by consumer products

Page 48: Photonics becomes greener over the next– Aggregate all green segments for market total – Identify green elements of segments – Forecast the penetration rate to 2021 – Expect

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Lighting trends for LEDs

• Global revenue 2009 achieved $480M• Highest CAGR in any category next decade (24%)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Reve

nues

($M

illio

n)

Source: OIDA research

Strong growth expected legislation driven

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Low income: light to educate• Electric light transforms the lives of the poor, making it possible for families to stay active - and children to study -

after night falls. But electricity is scarce in many developing countries; millions of villages are far from the grids, and power is expensive. Now the Light Up the World Foundation has found a way to illuminate whole villages with less electricity than is used by a single 100 watt bulb. Combining simple pedal-powered electric generators with wind turbines and with cutting edge technology from light-emitting diodes it has won a Rolex Award for Enterprise. Already working successfully in Nepalese villages, it is set to spread around the world.

Source: Philips Lumileds, Photos Courtesy of Light Up the World and PICO Power, www.ourplant.com, OIDA

Positive impact on new technology

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Momentum…

Source: OIDA research

Questions are now being asked…

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In a decade…

• Combined LED/OLED will grow to ~43% of lighting market by 2021

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Perc

ent s

hare

(%)

Lighting - OLED

Lighting -LED

Incand/Other

FL

Source: OIDA research

Will the G20/G8 ban Hg/Incand in 5yrs???

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Lighting: crucial to save energy

• U.S. electricity consumption could fall by 300TWh/yr by 2020– 212Twh/yr if all sockets converted to LEDs (>2% energy

~5x

~3x

~1.5%/yr

US Energy

US Electricity

withSSL

US Lighting

Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,"Energy Savings Potential of SSLin General Lighting Applications"(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),and EIA Statistics.

~5x

~3x

~1.5%/yr

US Energy

US Electricity

withSSL

US Lighting

Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,"Energy Savings Potential of SSLin General Lighting Applications"(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),and EIA Statistics.

Source: Jeff Tsao, Sandia National Laboratories, DOE

Saving energy is clean (and green)…

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In a decade: LED wallpaper…

• LED lighting utilizing silver-based conductive patterns and graphite-based series resistors that are printed in a single pass in a rotogravure process (roll to roll).

• SMD LEDs can then be mounted with conductive glue in an automated process.

• The process has been designed for flexible substrates up to 200μm gauge.

• Alcan believes the process can open up new applications for LEDs

Source: OIDA research, Alcan, Maurer ‘Rose on the wall’ , Jannon, UKDL

Is this more light or less? Green or wasteful?

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Photonic (SSL) lighting progress

Sources: Kaai,UCSB

LED performance faster than anticipated…

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Sensors will be utilized more...

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Optical sensors in key green roles

Sources: Smartec, Opsens, Catch the Wind, Insensys

Pipe Line Leakage Monitoring

LIDAR for Wind Turbine Control

Fiber Optic Sensors for Oil Extraction

Fiber Optic Sensors for Wind Turbine Control

Very broad application space

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Solar photovoltaic (pv)

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In 10yrs, USA joins in…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sola

r gen

erat

ion

(GW

)

GermanyRoEuropeJapanRoAsiaUSARoW

Source: OIDA, EPIA, Navigant Consulting, NREL, European Commission, IOA

Global PV mkt forecast by country

China is under forecast (>3GW in 2008, >10GW in 2009)…

50GW now viable alternative for power

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The hills are green….oops• 11MW Serpa,

Portugal

• Project led by GE

• 52,000 panels 200 watts each

• Project cost: 75 million euros

• Installed in six months

• Operational since Jan 2007

Source: OIDA, EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA

Will environmentalists complain…absolutely

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End of the line – a finished solar moduleSource: www.silexsolar.com.au

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Solar cell process lines in operationSource: www.silexsolar.com.au

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While many drive efficiencies…

Source: NREL

12

16

45

32

2222

17

2020

%50

41.6

Is higher cell efficiency our only option?

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Dense array…

2 decades of CPV experience…

• Advantages of dense array technology:– Based on ultra-high efficiency triple junction cells

– Low upgrade cost (now ~40% cells, future ~50%)

– Low maintenance solution

– Lower PV cell operating temperature for dense

• Array technology (active vs passive cooling):– Extends lifetime of cell

– Higher reliability of module

– Higher conversion efficiency

• Flexibility– Dish CPV – first product range

– Heliostat CPV – next generation product

– Potentially lowest cost solar power technology (LCOE)

X64 !!!

32TJ

=2048 cells

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Industry must keep costs down…

• CCost

Source: NREL

12

16

45

32

2222

17

2020

%50

41.6

Higher efficiency higher cost of the cell

Cost

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Translucent is looking at cost…

• Cell efficiency, magnification, cell cost ($/Cm2)

Huge value to CPV industry

Source: Boeing Spectrolab

Can the cost of CPV approach flat plate using Si wafers?

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Rare earth oxides (REOs)…

• Use silicon wafer• Grow REO then Ge• Grow Triple Junction

• Rare earth oxide

SiliconGraded REO

Graded REOSixGe1-x x2

Graded REOGe

SixGe1-x x1

Projected real - world efficiencies at 500 suns 39% 42% 42%

Future

New 1.25 eV

production generation

Ge 0.7 eV

Ge 0.7 eV

In

GaAs 1.4 eV

GaAs 1.4 eV New

1.0 eV Ge

0.7 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 Energy ( eV )

Projected real - world efficiencies at 500 suns 39% 42% 42%

Future

New 1.25 eV

Ge 0.7 eV

Ge 0.7 eV

In

GaAs 1.4 eV

GaAs 1.4 eV New

1.0 eV Ge

0.7 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

GaInP 1.8 eV

4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 Energy ( eV ) production generation

TLI

TJ vendors

The race to provide low $ substrates has begun…

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67

Rare earth oxides…

[email protected]

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1st exciting moment at TLI…

• Wafers currently support industry standard Si-CVD techniques

• Up to 10 µm of good quality CVD silicon grown on Translucent wafers

Natural SOI technology…

CVD-Si

SSE-Si

1µm

9µm

10 µm silicon by ASM EpsilonCVD using TCS (<111> Si)

(Gd1-xNdx)2O3

Si

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2nd exciting moment at TLI…

• Using rare earth oxides to lattice match different materials…

– Lattice parameter of REOs is closely matched to twice the lattice parameter of silicon.

– This enables growth of single crystal REOs on silicon without interfacial layers.

– REOs form thermally stable interfaces with silicon even at high temperatures

– Moisture absorption studies indicate that REOs in single crystal form are NOT hydroscopic.

Hitachi, J. App. Phys. 1987 Vol 61, #3, p 1030

RE as a compliant lattice match layer…

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Lattice parameter engineering

Nd2O311.08Å

Er2O310.55Å

(Gd1-xNdx)2O3

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7Omega/2Theta

Inte

nsity

[arb

uni

ts]

(Gd1-xNdx)2O3

Gd2O3/Si

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

13.75 13.95 14.15 14.35 14.55Omega/2Theta

Inte

nsity

[arb

uni

ts]

Gd2O3/Si

(Gd1-xErx)2O3/Si

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

13.5 14 14.5 15Omega/2Theta

Inte

nsity

[arb

uni

ts]

(Gd1-xErx)2O3/Si

Er2O3/Si

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

13.75 14.25 14.75Omega/2Theta

Inte

nsity

[arb

uni

ts]

Er2O3/Si

2aSi =10.86Å

Formation of solid solutions enable flexibility in tuning the lattice parameter of the oxide to match that of silicon.

Si

Rocking curves show lattice parameter engineering possible in this material system. Gd2O3

10.81Å

High quality controllable material

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Natural epi vs bonded SOI

Epitaxial solution is simpler & greener…(less $$$)

Note: The implant is targeted at 1-1.5um which represents best use of $ and time

Substrate Wafer 2

1) SiO22) H implant*

3) Bond

4) Split

7) CMP5) CMP

6) Si epi

Re-use

Substrate

1) REO and Si epi (TLI core competence)

2) Si CVD– separate tool (outsource)

Translucent Crystal SOI™ Industry bonded wafers

Substrate

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Use in LEDs & photonics devices

• Growth of high reflectivity distributed bragg reflectors in only 3 periods due to large Δn between REO (n=1.9) and silicon (n=3.65).

• DBR features ~90% reflectivity and a wide stop band of 200 nm.

• Oxide layer also exhibits photoluminescence from Er.

DBR100 nm

Distributed Bragg Reflector

Silicon

GlueSiliconOxideSiliconOxideSiliconOxide

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

500 700 900 1100

Wavelength [nm]

% R

efle

ctiv

ity

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

PL In

tens

ity [a

u]

High reflectivity epitaxial DBR to improve perf

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600

Wavelength (nm)

Sola

r out

put (

W/m

²/nm

)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Silic

on re

spon

sivi

ty (A

/W)

Harvesting the solar spectrum

Silicon responsivity

Solar spectrum . dλ = 716.76 W/m²λ=0 nm

λ=1120 nm

Solar spectrum . dλ = 900.27 W/m²λ=0 nm

λ=4000 nm

Solar spectrum . dλ = 183.51 W/m²λ=1120 nm

λ=4000 nm

100.0%

79.6%

20.4%

Total power density from the sun

Solar spectrum:ASTM G173-03 Reference Spectra Derived from SMARTS v. 2.9.2Source: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/spectra/am1.5/

20% of the available power from the sun remains unharvested using a silicon pn junction alone.

Visible region

Can we make solar cells more efficient?

Silicon detector:Calibration curve for a silicon photodetector(Newport 818-SL)

Cut-off: Silicon bandgap (1.1eV)

Power density up to the silicon bandgap

Power density beyond the silicon bandgap

…4000

Integrating, to get the area under the graph:

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1520 1530 1540 1550 1560 1570

Wavelength (nm)

Sig

nal (

V) [

1nA

/V]

In spite of net loss: up conversion observed…

Challenge is to improve up-conversion of Er oxide

Measured upconversion as a function of wavelength

1530nm

980nm

UC

Solar Cell

Current (nA)

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3 key takeaways…

• Photonics enables many things and is part of our lifestyle

• Photonics will be designed for many products and applications

• Photonics is green and will enable new technologies and products that will also be green…

Lifestyle, photonics, green

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22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams

End of presentation

Michael Lebby, PhD MBA Deng CEngGeneral Manager & Chief Technology Officer

TranslucentEarth Abundant Materials Technology

Translucent Inc952 Commercial St

[email protected]

Palo Alto, CA94303

Thank you for listening

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Silex Systems Subsidiaries

Silex Systems Limited

SilexSolarTranslucent Inc. Solar SystemsChronologic

Founded: 1988IPO: 1998 (SLX.AX)

PV panel business(formerly BP Solar Sydney Olympic Park)

Advanced materials

Instrumentation Utility scale PV

Advanced green technologies

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Translucent Inc: History

2001 Company founded by a postdoc from Prof. David A.B. Miller’s group at Stanford University. Translucent was focussed on the development of Erbium Doped Waveguide Amplifiers (EDWAs) for the Telecommunications Industry. Investors included Silex Systems.

2003 Silex takes a majority ownership of Translucent Inc.2004 Translucent files first SOI related patents. 2006 Translucent focuses on technologies for the solar energy industry.2010 Michael Lebby brought in as General

Manager. SOI and Ge-on-silicon is identified as key strategic directions for the company.

2011 SOI and solar solutions

952 Commercial St, Palo Alto, CA94303

Decade of materials R&D with rare earth oxides…

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Silicon photonics

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REO Photonics with DARPA

• Partner with Caltech in phase I and phase II of DARPA – EPIC program

TLI REOTLI REOVisible emissionOptically pumped Visible emission

Source – Caltech 2008 DARPA-EPIC report

Optically stimulation need electrical for product

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Impact of green display manufacturing

Element Improvement in Product or Process Impact

Light Efficiency Improvement Backlight efficiency, Pixel transmittance 50 % reduction in power consumption

Backlight Low Hg lamp, Fewer backlight lamps 30-50 % reduction in Hg content

Glass, printed circuit board, liquid crystal material, integrated circuits, sealing materials, etc.

Green component selectionEliminate arsenic from glass, Eliminate halogens, Eliminate brominated fire retardant

Water consumption Low water processing Reduce water consumption per glass area by 70%

Greenhouse gas Low emission processes Reduce green house gas emissions per glass area by 70%

Shipping packaging material Redesign shipping packaging Save 21,000 trees, 48,000 tons water, 3,000 MWhr electricity, 2,000 ton CO2

Shipping transportation Maximize shipping contained loading

Save 6,300 ton CO2 , 13,000 MWhr electricity

Waste production Recycle glass, Reuse solvents, Reduce sludge, Reuse sludge 80 % waste recovery rate

Source: AU Optronics

Improving processes across the board