Philippine Election Philippine Election Scenarios Scenarios

Possible ScenariosPossible Scenarios# 1: Failure of Elections# 2: No Proclamation of National

Winners# 3: Wholesale automated cheating# 4: A new government is in place

Scenario #1: Scenario #1: Failure of ElectionsFailure of Elections

Scenario #1: Scenario #1: Failure of ElectionsFailure of ElectionsInstead of a last minute decision to shift

to manual election, the automated elections proceed as scheduled.

On election day itself, the system breaks down in many areas, preventing the holding of elections.

Comelec fails to put manual voting in place to meet such contingency.

Long lines of voters feel frustrated and, sensing sabotage, they vent their fury on election authorities.

Spontaneous protests break out everywhere, threatening to turn violent.

Scenario #1: Scenario #1: Failure of ElectionsFailure of Elections

The military and the police step in to quell lawlessness. Martial law is declared by the President, who holds on to power beyond June 30, and proclaims the formation of a Transition Council to restore order and prepare the country for a fresh round of elections.

Scenario # 2: Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of No Proclamation of National WinnersNational Winners

Scenario # 2: Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National No Proclamation of National WinnersWinnersThe automated elections proceed as

scheduled. PCOS machines break down in many

precincts in some regions of the country. The results are however sufficient to

immediately declare the winners in local races – councilors, mayors, congressmen and governors.

Winners for national positions like senator, vice-president, and president could not be proclaimed because the slim margins could be offset by awaited results from the other regions.

Scenario # 2: Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National No Proclamation of National WinnersWinnersThe House of Representatives is

able to convene, but not the Senate.

The Speaker is chosen by the newly-elected House, but not the Senate President.

The results for the national level remain inconclusive even after June 30.

Scenario # 2: Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National No Proclamation of National WinnersWinnersIn the meantime since a Speaker

has been chosen by the new House of Representatives…

that person can validly assert a claim to serve as acting President. That person could well be GMA.

Scenario # 3: Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated Wholesale automated cheatingcheating

Scenario # 3: Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated Wholesale automated cheatingcheatingThe automated elections proceed

as scheduled. Votes are counted, and the winners

are proclaimed. The results appear to contradict

popular expectations. Charges of systematic rigging of

the results through control of the source code gain credence as evidence of a pattern of automated adding and subtracting of votes piles up.

Scenario # 3: Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated Wholesale automated cheatingcheatingWith no parallel manual precinct count

to validate the automated results, voters become agitated

Protests and demonstrations erupt in many parts of the country

The troops are called in to suppress violence and disorder

Scenario # 3: Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated Wholesale automated cheatingcheatingThe President declares

Martial Law to save the Republic

GMA holds on to the presidency until June 30, and then gives way to a multi-sectoral Transition Council to be led by her

Scenario # 4: Scenario # 4: A new government is in A new government is in placeplace

Scenario # 4: Scenario # 4: A new government is in A new government is in placeplaceThe automated election is

successfully heldThe results are accepted. A new

government is electedGMA gains a seat in Congress,

and is elected Speaker. Or, at the very least, she controls a large enough block to be able to determine the agenda of the House

Scenario # 4: Scenario # 4: A new government is in A new government is in placeplaceA law convening a Constitutional

Convention is passed, and the election of delegates to the Convention is held simultaneously with the barangay elections scheduled for October 2010

A new Constitution changing the form of government from presidential to parliamentary is ratified in 2011

Speaker GMA becomes the first Prime Minister under the new Constitution, while the Presidency is transformed into a largely ceremonial role

Scenario # 4: Scenario # 4: A new government is in A new government is in placeplaceBefore all this can happen, of course,

GMA will have to face many cases for corruption committed during her presidency

It will not be very easy to pin her down given the way she has handpicked the members of the high court and the Office of the Ombudsman

The ensuing battle will be protracted and will be fought on various fronts

Scenario # 4: Scenario # 4: A new government is in A new government is in placeplaceOnce again, political conflict will

burden the judicial systemWe cannot discount the intervention

of the military at any point, especially if civilian authority is deadlocked and is unable to govern and respond effectively to emergencies triggered by natural calamities.

COUNTERFOIL TO COUNTERFOIL TO POSSIBLE ELECTION POSSIBLE ELECTION SCENARIOS:SCENARIOS:

Continuing people's vigilance and citizen power (which foiled several Charter Change attempts)

Crumbling of Lakas-Kampi-NUCD ruling coalitionThe U.S. Factor which has great influence over

AFP/PNP and other Philippine institutionsA patriotic armed forces that is professional and

loyal to the Filipino people and constitution, not to a person who happens to be in power (long-term)