Climate change: facts, impacts and global security

Unesco Paris July 2009

Philip C. Reid

FACTS

IPCC 2007

Warming unequivocalVery high confidence that due to forcing by

human activities

Global surface temperature anomalies (°C)

2008

NOAA GISSBase period 1951-1980

Global surface temperature anomalies (°C) 2008

NOAA GISSBase period 1951-1980

GLOBAL TRENDS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENTO

cean

Hea

t Con

tent

(1022

J) 1955-2003

Years

Domingues et al. 2008 Nature 453

HYDROLOGICAL CYCLEPRECIPITATION EVAPORATION

SALINITY

Poleward freshening and higher salinities in low latitudes in the 1990s

Curry et al. 2003 Nature 426See also Rignoul GRL 4 2007

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Oxygen isotope (ice volume) and temperature down the EPICA ice core (Antarctica)

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

CO

2 pp

m

Age x1000 yearsEPICA Community members 2004 Nature

Global Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends)

Year 2008: 384.83 ppm 38% above pre-industrialMauna Loa May 2009: 390.18 ppm

Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends)

FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONSCEMENT MANUFACTUREFOREST DESTRUCTION

1751 -2006329 bil

tonnes C

East Asia: China

Mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

of c

arbo

n

2006 record8230 mil tonnes CNorth America

Source:Boden et al. 2009

CDIAC USA

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

2007

(Avgs.)

2008

Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS and Global Carbon Project 2009 , Canadell 2009 lecture

Earth PyrogeographyMean number of fires from satellites 2001-2006

Fires per year

> 5000

1 – 45 – 19

20 – 4950 – 99100 – 199

200 – 499

Bowman et al. 2009 Science 324

IMPACTS

SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea Level Rise

From coastal observationsFrom satellite observationsModel projections

Rahmsdor f et al. 2007, Science

Ocean carbon pumps

Small variation - potential large impact on the atmosphere

MELTING ICE

Arctic Annual Sea Ice Minimum

NASA 2009 from Canadell lecture

Antarctica Ice velocity and mass loss/gain of large basins

OGain

Gt per year

+10 Gt yr –1

–10 Gt yr –1

OLoss

Gt per year

Rignot et al. 2008 Nature Geoscience

Schematic section of the Antarctic ice sheet

Australian Antarctic Division web site

MOUNTAIN GLACIERS

Retreat of the Gangotri glacier snout from 1780 to 2001

Bajracharya et al. 2007 ICIMOD

METHANEPERMAFROST HYDRATES

Map of Northern Hemisphere permafrost Methane

Alfred Wegener Institute Katey Walter Univ. Alaska

TRANS-ARCTIC MIGRATION

Pacific diatom in the Northwest Atlantic circa 1998

2001

Neodenticula seminae

Reid et al. 2007. Global Change Biology 13

DROUGHTFLOODS

TROPICAL CYCLONES

REGIME SHIFT

1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002

J

D

M

J

S

North Sea Phytoplankton Colour

1946 2002

Rei

d et

al.

1998

, Nat

ure

391,

546

(upd

ated

)

Step changes in regional sea systems: Regime shift

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Mar-Apr 10

6km

2

YearsBrown 2000 IPCC 2005 WG 1

BIODIVERSITY

Thomas et al. 2004 Nature Rashida Saleem web photo

Northerly movement of plankton and fish

Warm temperate slope species

Bea

ugra

nd e

t al.

2003

. Sci

ence

296

,169

2-16

94

2005 Euchaeta hebes, Clausocalanus, Ceratium hexacanthum

A further complication

Ocean acidification

Coral reef destructionExtinction? Calcareous plankton

pH since the Miocene and projections to 2150pH

Time in millions of years before present

Turley et al. 2006 and Canadell lecture

FOREST/PEAT FIRES

Forest fires in 2100

GLOBALSECURITY

WO

RL

D P

OPU

LA

TIO

N

YEARSource: www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.htmlGelbard, Haub, Kent 1999 Population bulletin 54 www.prb,org

WATER SCARCITYTRADE

URBANISATIONMIGRATION

TRAVELWAR

HUMAN HEALTHEPIDEMICS

HEAT EXHAUSTION

ECONOMICS

Sir Nicholas Stern 2006

STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change

Strong, early action outweigh the costs

March 2009 A Blueprint For a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and

Prosperity

Costs unnecesary or can be delayed? Profoundly misguided, risks enormous

July 2009 Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Lecturehosted by Chatham House

Simulated surface air temperature in Bergen model

Hel

ge D

rang

e, B

erge

n

Temp anomaly °C v mean temp 1951-1980

Projected enormous change within 100 years

Passing on the message to children

• Considerable educational material available• Very variable quality• Incorporate CC into all aspects of the curriculum • Teach ethics and economics of climate

change• Include new renewable energy sources• Focus on climate change in geography• Stimulate inventiveness • Encourage careers in science and engineering• Need to change the way we live and interact

Conclusions• Very rapid observation and predictive change, accelerating• Wide range of impacts that can be attributed to climate change• Key role of the oceans• Complication of effect on carbon cycle of ocean acidification (pH)• Trends of emissions, T, CO2 and impacts tracking close to

highest scenarios of IPCC• Rapid melting of glaciers and some ice sheets• Expected high extinction rate of plants and animals by 2100• Large global security consequences• Major economic benefits if we act now • Decadal to 100 year plus prognosis worrying• Crucial to pass on the message to the next generation

NOT TACKLING ISSUES WITH URGENCY AND RESOURCES REQUIRED

Positive take home message

NOT A DOOM MONGERStern report

Huge economic potential

PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE BY ADAPTING!BUT implement NOW!

By changing all aspects of our life styles

SAVE ENERGY, INSULATE, PRODUCE ENERGY AT THE HOUSE LEVEL

DEVELOP PUBLIC TRANSPORTOPERATE LOCALLY, RECYCLE

INTENSIFY INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

ACCELERATE MITIGATION MEASURESSee IPCC WG 3 Report May 2007