Pharmaceutical market in indonesia

Excellence in Execution

Pharma Market Growth in Indonesia

Johannes Setijono2011


Macro Environment & Trend


Indonesia by the NumbersThe growth of Indonesian real GDP reached 6.1% in 2010

Source: Prospek Perekonomian Indonesia 2011 – Cyrillus Harinowo

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2,295

2,774

3,339

3,921

4,951

5,613

6,500

7,500

14.01

20.8720.37

17.43

26.27

13.37

15.80

15.38

55.7 5.5

6.3 6.1

4.5

6.16.8

GDP Growth In Indonesia

Nominal GDP Nominal GDP Growth Real GDP Growth

Year

(In I

DR

Tri

llio

n)

(In %

)

• With these developments, Nominal GDP can grow about 15%, which is around Rp 7,500 Tn or about $ 850 Bn in 2011

• Income per capita will reach about $ 3,500


Chin

a

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Phili

ppin

es

Sing

apor

e

Thai

land

Hon

gkon

g

Taiw

an

Kore

a

Japa

n

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 8.5 8.5

6.5

5.5 5.55 5

4.3 4.1 4

1.4

Indonesia by the NumbersRegional GDP Growth – 2011 E

Source: Macquarie Research, October 2010

%


• In 2004, Indonesia was still number 25-26 with Saudi Arabia• In 2007, we were number 20, beyond Austria, Norway and

Taiwan• In 2008, we had surpassed Switzerland, Belgium and

Sweden, so that put us at number 18-19• In 2015, our economy will generate income per capita of

about $ 5,000 (such as Malaysia in 2006 but with a population of 8x more). If in the year 2011 our income per capita reached approximately $ 3,500, then the above target is likely to be exceeded

• This 5 years period will be very crucial to the Indonesian business world. (Various foreign investors will expand or penetrate the market within the next 5 years)

Outlook for Year 2008 – 2015


Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200630

40

50

60

70

public private out-of-pocket private

Indonesia’s Health Spending Trends

Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP

Source: WHO National Health Accounts database, September 2008

• Total expenditure on health averaged 2% of GDP over the 11 year period 1996-2006.

• The Government is planning to implement the National Social Security System. Since 2004, the Government has implemented healthcare program for poor people through Asuransi Kesehatan Masyarakat Miskin (Health Insurance for Poor Population) or Askeskin program and currently is replaced by Jaminan Kesehatan Masyarakat (Public Health Insurance Scheme for the Population) or Jamkesmas program.

• In Q4 2009, the new Healthcare Law has been approved and provides guideline for Government to increase the healthcare spending from 2% up to 5% of GDP (Healthcare Law No. 36/2009, Article 171 paragraph 1)

Vietnam

IndiaChina

MalaysiaPhilippines

Indonesia

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

6.0 5.0

4.7 4.2

3.2 2.5

Source: Daily Newspaper Suara Pembaruan , 29 March 2010

Share of Total Health Expenditure (%) 1996-2006

Source: The World Bank


Relevant Trends in Indonesia

• Middle class to rise from 19% of Asian population in 2009 to 30% by 2014• Indonesia has a young population, where 44% are below 24 years old

Growing wealth of middle class to drive demand

Source: CLSA Mr & Mrs Asia Moving up the J-curves – Spring 2010


Relevant Trends in Indonesia

• Urban areas in Indonesia grew at an annual rate of 3.8% between 1990 and 2005, compared to the average growth in total population of 1.4% per annum

• As of end-2009, 44% of Indonesia’s population live in urban areas• Based on United Nation’s estimates, the urbanization trend will continue to

accelerate, increasing the proportion of people living in urban areas to 65% by 2050. We expect this trend to facilitate growth in health care

Urbanization

Source: Merrill Lynch Equity -ASEAN-Real Estate/Property – August 2010


Relevant Trends in IndonesiaDemographic

Indonesian population by Generation Group 2010-2016 (in ‘000)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

40,988 41,118 41,247 41,377 41,498 41,595 41,673

103,127 103,233 103,317 103,369 103,353 103,271 103,311

49,305 50,294 51,251 52,192 53,103 53,997 54,893

40,058 41,686 43,360 45,076 46,862 48,708 50,461

Gen Z (age 0 - 9) Gen Y (age 10 - 34)Gen X (age 35 - 49) Baby Boomers (age 50 - 75+)

2010 vs 2016 Growth

26.0%

11.3%

0.2%

1.7%

• From the chart above, baby boomers and retire (>54) population have the biggest growth until 2016

people’s life expectancy longer people’s health awareness higher• Productive people (25 – 54) (gen X and partial gen Y) also growing around 11.3%

Source: Data Statistik Indonesia


Industri Farmasi Indonesia


Global pharma market tumbuh lebih dari US$1,200 billion di tahun 2014, didorong oleh Pharmerging markets

Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis, Mar 2010. New Pharmerging definition

ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma


Meskipun pasar APAC melambat, tetapi pasar China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam diperkirakan tumbuh “double digit”

Historical Growth 2005 – 2009 CAGR (LCD/MNF)Bubble size corresponds to 2014 SalesIMS data


China Market Sales Growth by Segment

China merupakan market terbesar APAC, dan generik tumbuh paling pesat dibanding branded.

IMS MIDAS Q2 2010



China di tahun 2009 menempati ranking 5 dan diperkirakan naik ke ranking 3 untuk pasar farmasi di dunia



Growth driver China pharmaceutical market• Kenaikan GDP• Jumlah penduduk menengah atas yang meningkat tajam gaya hidup

berubah, termasuk meningkatnya health spending; dan meningkatnya kebutuhan health service & product yang lebih baik

• Regulasi pemerintah yang lebih baik:– Kebijakan untuk meningkatkan kualitas industri farmasi (dari 5000 3500

industri farmasi (2004)– Kebijakan perluasan asuransi kesehatan nasional dan perbaikan list obat dalam

asuransi– Kebijakan investasi yang mendukung perkembangan industri farmasi, baik

dalam bidang riset bahan baku sampai produk jadi dan biotechnology serta TCM – Kebijakan IP, tenaga kerja ekonomis investasi asing masuk– Kebijakan kolaborasi ABG yang kuat & Insentif terhadap riset– Kebijakan peningkatan kualitas pelayanan RS

• Akses healthcare yang lebih baik perbaikan dalam sarana kesehatan• Peningkatan kualitas produk; riset bahan baku dan produk jadi serta

biotechnology; distribusi produk• Jumlah retail yang berkembang dengan pesat


Pola kenaikan GDP Indonesia sama dengan China dan India……


Indonesia merupakan lapisan 3 sumber pertumbuhan pharma dunia….


Di kawasan ASEAN, pasar farmasi Indonesia masih menjadi magnet untuk investasi

Historical performance of ASEAN markets

Source: IMS MIDAS MAT Dec 2010. ‘ASEAN’ includes Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia & Singapore in USD

ASEAN Annual growth rate =14.7%

ASEAN 4-year CAGR =14.2%



Industri farmasi Indonesia mempunyai market

share yang baik (perusahaan farmasi domestik

mendominasi pasar Indonesia)

Ketergantungan pada bahan baku impor

menyebabkan industri farmasi sangat rentan

pada perkembangan harga bahan baku obat di

pasar internasional dan fluktuasi nilai tukar

(lebih dari 90% bahan baku obat diimpor)

Penyerapan tenaga kerja di seluruh rantai

farmasi sekitar 250.000 tenaga kerja

208 produsen farmasi termasuk 33 perusahaan

asing & 4 BUMN di Indonesia dapat memenuhi

kebutuhan seluruh sektor ekonomi masyarakat

Indonesia, dari lapisan atas ke bawah

Profil Industri Farmasi


Secara value, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalami pertumbuhan yang melambat

Source: IMS,: ITMA, MAT 4Q10ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma


Secara unit, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalami kenaikan..

Source: IMS, ITMA, MAT 4Q10ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma


Value= 19,564 bnGrowth = +14.0%

Value= 21,945 bnGrowth = +12.2%

Sumber pertumbuhan pasar ethical adalah volume, BUKAN lagi berasal dari harga; yang mengakibatkan beberapa industri memperluas fasilitasnya

Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10

New Products5% Interaction

1%

Volume Change49%

Line Ex-tension5%

Price Changes40%

EGS MAT 4Q09

New Products3%

Interaction1%

Volume Change68%

Line Exten-

sion5%

Price Changes23%

EGS MAT 4Q10



Terjadi penurunan jumlah produk baru yang diluncurkan

Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

150

200

250

Number of Products Launch per Year

Foreign Ethical Foreign OTC Local Ethical Local OTC

Avg : 150

Avg : 63

Avg : 33

Avg : 9



2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pasar farmasi Indonesia 2006 – 2014 (est.)

Pasar Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami pertumbuhan CAGR 13.4% karena didorong oleh:• pertumbuhan GDP• health spending government• % rakyat yang mempunyai asuransi• kepedulian masyarakat terhadap kesehatan• demografi

CAGR = 12.4%

CAGR = 13.4%


Prospek industri farmasi di Indonesia masih tumbuh dengan

baik dan menjanjikan

Kita harus mengantisipasi perubahan-perubahan yang

terjadi baik dari segi demografi, urbanisasi, dan juga

perubahan sistem, seperti asuransi

Dengan adanya pressure atau tekanan dari pemerintah,

pertumbuhan pasar farmasi Indonesia akan lebih banyak

dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan volume dan produk baru,

dibandingkan dengan kenaikan harga

Pasar Farmasi Indonesia


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Pharmaceutical market in indonesia