Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Issues, methods and organizationIssues, methods and organizationfor costing the CLIC accelerator projectfor costing the CLIC accelerator project

Philippe Lebrun

Meeting on costing of CLIC detectorCERN, 26 April 2010

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curves• Elements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & toolsCost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimizationFeedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curvescurves• Elements of cost risk analysisElements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalationCoping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Development of circular acceleratorsDevelopment of circular accelerators

Lawrence’s first Lawrence’s first cyclotron (1930)cyclotron (1930)

80 years10 5 increase in size

10 8 increase in beam energy

Large Hadron Large Hadron Collider (2009)Collider (2009)

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost of CERN accelerators

LHC

LEP+LEP2

LEP

SPS+SPPbarSSPS

ISR

PS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year of completion

Co

nst

ruct

ion

co

st [

MC

HF

of

2008

]Cost of projects keep increasingCost of projects keep increasing

Limit of funding capability ?

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost structure of LEP and LHCCost structure of LEP and LHC

• Accelerator components account only for ~1/3 of the cost of large accelerators projects

• Most of the budget goes into civil engineering, infrastructure and services, for which market prices are usually available

• LHC is atypical– re-use of tunnel and some

infrastructure from LEP– large absolute cost of

superconducting technology further reduces proportion of infrastructure

LEP

30%

18%

43%

9%

Accelerator components

Accelerator infrastructure

Civil engineering

Injectors

LHC

68%

8%

13%

11%

Accelerator components

Accelerator infrastructure

Civil engineering

Injectors

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy acceleratorsCost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimizationFeedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curvescurves• Elements of cost risk analysisElements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalationCoping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost estimate methodsCost estimate methods

• Analytical– Based on project/work breakdown structure– Define production techniques– Estimate fixed costs– Establish unit costs & quantities (including production yield and

rejection/reprocessing rates)– In case of large series, introduce learning curve (see later)

• Scaling– Establish scaling estimator(s) and scaling law(s), including

conditions & range of application• Empirical• « First-principles » based

– Define reference project(s) and fit data, mutatis mutandis

• In most cases, hybrid between these methods

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

CLIC analytical costing based on PBSCLIC analytical costing based on PBSlevel 1 level 3 level 4 level 5Beam and Services Domain Technical responsible Sub-domain System Component

Main Beam Production1.1 Injectors L. Rinolfi L. Rinolfi

1.1.1. Thermoionic gun unpolarized e-1.1.2. Primary e- beam linac for e+1.1.3. e-/e+ Target1.1.4. Pre-injector Linac for e+1.1.5. DC gun Polarised e-1.1.6. Pre-injector Linac for e-1.1.7. Injector Linac

1.2 Damping Rings Y. Papaphilippou Y. Papaphilippou1.2.1. Pre-damping Ring e+1.2.2. Pre-damping Ring e-1.2.3. Damping Ring e+1.2.4. Damping Ring e-

1.3. Beam transport L. Rinolfi L. Rinolfi1.3.1. Bunch Compressor #1 e+1.3.2. Bunch Compressor #1 e-1.3.3. Booster Linac1.3.4. Transfer to Tunnel e+1.3.5. Transfer to Tunnel e-1.3.6. Long Transfer Line e+1.3.7. Long Transfer Line e-1.3.8. Turnaround e+1.3.9. Turnaround e-

1.3.10. Bunch compressor #2 e+1.3.11. Bunch compressor #2 e-

Drive Beam Production2.1 Injectors tbc

2.1.1. Linac e+2.1.2. Linac e-

2.2. Frequency Multiplication B. Jeanneret B. Jeanneret2.2.1. Delay Loop e+2.2.2. Delay Loop e-2.2.3. Combiner Ring #1 e+2.2.4. Combiner Ring #1 e-2.2.5. Combiner Ring #2 e+2.2.6. Combiner Ring #2 e-

2.3. Beam transport B. Jeanneret B. Jeanneret2.3.1. Transfer to Tunnel e+2.3.2. Transfer to Tunnel e-2.3.3. Long Transfer Line e+2.3.4. Long Transfer Line e-2.3.5. Turnaround and Bunch Compressor e+2.3.6. Turnaround and Bunch Compressor e-

Two-beam accelerator3.1. Two-beam modules G. Riddone

3.1.1. Two-Beam Modules Type 0 e+3.1.2 Two-Beam Modules Type 1 e+3.1.3 Two-Beam Modules Type 2 e+3.1.4 Two-Beam Modules Type 3 e+3.1.5 Two-Beam Modules Type 4 e+3.1.6 Two-Beam Modules Type 0 e-3.1.7 Two-Beam Modules Type 1 e-3.1.8 Two-Beam Modules Type 2 e-3.1.9 Two-Beam Modules Type 3 e-

3.1.10 Two-Beam Modules Type 4 e-3.2. Post decelerator B. Jeanneret

3.2.1. Post Decelerator e+3.2.2. Post Decelerator e-

Interaction Region4.1. Beam Delivery Systems tbc K. Schirm (R. Tomas)

4.1.1. Beam Delivery System e+4.1.2. Beam Delivery System e-

4.2. Machine-Detector Interface tbc K. Schirm (D. Schulte)4.2.1. Experiment A4.2.2 Experiment B

4.3. Experimental Area tbc K. Schirm (L. Linssen)4.3.1. Common Facilities4.3.2. Experiment A4.3.3. Experiment B

4.4. Post-collision line tbc K. Schirm (K. Elsener)4.4.1. Post-collision line e+4.4.2. Post-collision line e-

Infrastructure and Services5.1. Civil Engineering J. Osborne J. Osborne

5.1.1. Underground Facilities5.1.2. Surface Structures5.1.3. Site Development

5.2. Electricity J. Osborne (C. Jach) J. Osborne5.2.1 AC network5.2.2 DC network

5.3. Access and Communications H. Schmickler J. Osborne5.3.1. Personnel Access Control5.3.2. Global Accelerator Control5.3.3. Industrial Control5.3.4. Data Network

5.4. Fluids J. Osborne (J. Inigo-Golfin) J. Osborne5.4.1. Water systems5.4.2. HVAC5.4.3. Cryogenics5.4.4. Gas

5.5. Transport / installation J. Osborne (K. Kershaw) J. Osborne5.5.1. Surface and Vertical Shafts5.5.2. Tunnels and Inclined Shafts

5.6. Safety J. Osborne (F. Corsanego) J. Osborne5.6.1. Radiation Safety5.6.2. Fire Safety

5.7. Survey J. Osborne (H. Mainaud-Durand) J. Osborne5.8. Machine Operation tbd .

level 2

1 RF System2 RF Powering System3 Vacuum System 4 Magnet Powering System 5 Magnet System 6 Cooling System 7 Beam Instrumentation System8 Supporting System 9 Alignment system

10 Kicker system11 Cryogenic system12 Laser system13 Collimation system14 Stabilisation System15 Absorbers16 Damping system17 Electron Gun18 RF deflectors19 Installation20 Commissioning

Level 4 system

Component level

List of systems standardized

Contact experts per system

Coordinators per domain/subdomai

n

Identified for analytical costing based on level 5

description

Costing multi-MW klystronsCosting multi-MW klystrons

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Scaling klystron costScaling klystron cost

E. Jensen

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Optimizing klystron initial costOptimizing klystron initial cost

E. Jensen

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Optimizing klystron cost including Optimizing klystron cost including replacementreplacement

E. Jensen

Some issues in estimating operation Some issues in estimating operation costscosts

• Utilities & consumables– Variability of electricity costs: operation schedule needed– Include externalities in marginal cost

• Distribution losses• Heat rejection• Carbon footprint?

– Inventory losses & replenishment (fluids)• Maintenance & repair

– Periodic maintenance• MTBF of equipment• Cost of spares and scheduled replacement

– Emergency repair• Comprehensive cost impact of accidents: risk analysis• Model for down time and repair interventions

• Personnel– Staff model for operations group/team– Out- or insourcing?– Personnel stability & investment in training

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Organization for CLIC cost estimateOrganization for CLIC cost estimate

• CLIC Cost & Schedule WG established• Communication and reporting lines defined• Web node active (access protected)• PBS updated and completed for 3 TeV and 500 GeV phases,

including standardization of level 4 technical systems

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

CLIC Cost & Schedule WGCLIC Cost & Schedule WGCommunication & reporting linesCommunication & reporting lines

CLIC Cost & Schedule WG

CLIC Steering Committee

CLIC Technical Committee

Other CLIC WG

System group

ILC GDE Cost Team

Other CLIC WG

Other CLIC WG System group

System group

report

s to

PBS, developments & alternatives

Configuration

Analytical costing

Information, methodology

Technical design

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

CLIC Study Costing ToolCLIC Study Costing Tool

• CLIC Study Costing Tool developed & maintained by CERN GS-AIS• Operational, on-line from C&S WG web page (access protected)• Includes features for currency conversion, price escalation and

uncertainty• Demonstrations to users in C&S WG meetings

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy acceleratorsCost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & toolsCost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curvescurves• Elements of cost risk analysisElements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalationCoping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost drivers, models and optimizationCost drivers, models and optimization

• Limitation of PBS/WBS-based approach: does not look at interplay between technical systems ⇒ risk of local (« mountain lake ») optimization

• Hence importance of communication among experts to develop global view– cost WG– informal discussion with system specialists,– understanding of rationale behind scaling laws– pluridisciplinary models– feedback to project team

• Cost scaling models only exist for limited number of components or subsystems

• Targeted cost studies by industrial companies important for– providing up-to-date, relevant data– establishing limits of validity of scaling laws– exploring technical alternatives & breakthroughs

Cost & efficiency optimization for CLICCost & efficiency optimization for CLIC

RF frequency

RF phase advance per cell

Accelerating gradient (loaded)

Cavity iris aperture

Cavity iris thickness

Bunch charge

Bunch separation

Surface field < 260 MV/m

Surface heating < 56 K

Power input < 18 MW/mm ns0.33

Wakefields

Emittance growth

Luminosity per input power

Cost

NY

iterate

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost & efficiency optimization for CLICCost & efficiency optimization for CLIC

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Feedback to technical design:Feedback to technical design:some cost drivers & potential saving options for some cost drivers & potential saving options for

CLICCLIC

Cost driver Cost saving impact

Cost mitigation option Alternative Risk/benefit of alternative

Specific actions

Accelerating structure stacked disc construction

H Quadrant construction Technical validation pending

Industrial cost studies, prototyping

Accelerating structure vacuum tank

M Sealed construction Leakage Prototyping

Production yield of accelerating structures

M to H Production control and testing

Industrial prototyping & preseries production

Replacement of 80 MV/m accelerating structures

M Reinstall and reuse 80 MV/m structures

Maximum energy

PETS on-off mechanism M Develop and industrialize

Drive beam quadrupoles: unprecedented number

M Automated manufacturing

Customization to position in decelerator

Allows series powering

To be developed

Specification from beam physics, industrial study

Powering of drive beam quadrupoles

M Novel powering scheme ("intelligent bus")

Series powering (plus trim windings?)

Reduce cabling, limit power consumption

Specification from beam physics

Reliability of power converters

M Hot spares Improved availability of CLIC

Specification from beam physics

Cost impact

L Order of 10 MCHF M Order of 100 MCHF H Order of 1 BCHF Ph. Lebrun - 100426

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy acceleratorsCost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & toolsCost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimizationFeedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curves• Elements of cost risk analysisElements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalationCoping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

CLIC two-beam modulesCLIC two-beam modulesComplexity, number, integrationComplexity, number, integration

CLIC 3 TeV (per linac)Modules: 10462

Accelerating str.: 71406 PETS: 35703MB quadrupoles: 1996 DB quadrupoles: 20924

CLIC 3 TeV (per linac)Modules: 10462

Accelerating str.: 71406 PETS: 35703MB quadrupoles: 1996 DB quadrupoles: 20924

CLIC 500 GeV (per linac)Modules: 2124

Accelerating str.: 13156 PETS: 6578MB quadrupoles: 929 DB quadrupoles: 4248

CLIC 500 GeV (per linac)Modules: 2124

Accelerating str.: 13156 PETS: 6578MB quadrupoles: 929 DB quadrupoles: 4248

G. Riddone

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

CLIC vs LHC components:CLIC vs LHC components:different solutions for different series different solutions for different series

numbers numbers

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1 10 100 1000

Number of variants

Max

imum

num

ber

of u

nits

per

var

iant Superconductors

Magnet components

Magnets

Power converters

Cryolines

Vacuum

Flexible cells, manual work

Flexible workshops

Automatic chains

CLIC ASCLIC PETSCLIC Quads

CLIC TBM

AS quadrants

AS discs

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Learning curve: theoryLearning curve: theory

• T.P. Wright, Factors affecting the cost of airplanes, Journ. Aero. Sci. (1936)

• Unit cost c(n) of nth unit producedc(n) = c(1) nlog

2a

with a = « learning percentage », i.e. remaining cost fraction when production is doubled

• Cumulative cost of first nth unitsC(n) = c(1) n1+log

2a / (1+log2a)

with C(n)/n = average unit cost of first nth units produced

• n = number per production line ≠ total number in project

Experimental learning curve:Experimental learning curve:LHC superconducting dipole magnetsLHC superconducting dipole magnets

P. Fessia

Collared coils Cold masses

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Learning coefficients Learning coefficients

P. Fessia

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Effect of learning coefficientEffect of learning coefficienton average unit cost up to rank Non average unit cost up to rank N

Learning curve: average unit cost

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Rank N

Rel

ativ

e av

erag

e un

it co

st o

f fir

st N

uni

ts

a=0.80a=0.85a=0.90a=0.95a=0.98

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Saturation of learning processSaturation of learning processhas little impact on total cost has little impact on total cost

Learning curve: effect of saturation

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Relative rank at saturation

Rel

ativ

e to

tal c

ost

incr

ease

whe

n sa

tura

tion a = 0.70

a = 0.75a = 0.80a = 0.85a = 0.90a = 0.95a = 0.98

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy acceleratorsCost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & toolsCost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimizationFeedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curvescurves• Elements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalationCoping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Cost variance factorsCost variance factors

• Technical design– Evolution of system configuration – Maturity of component design– Technology breakthroughs – Variation of applicable regulations

• Industrial execution– Qualification & experience of vendors – State of completion of R&D, of industrialization– Series production, automation & learning curve– Rejection rate of production process

• Structure of market– Mono/oligopoly– Mono/oligopsone

• Commercial strategy of vendor– Market penetration– Competing productions

• Inflation and escalation– Raw materials– Industrial prices

• International procurement– Exchange rates– Taxes, custom duties

Engineering judgement of responsible

Tracked and compensated

Decre

asin

g co

ntro

l of p

roje

ct re

sponsib

le

Outside project control

Procurement

Contract adjudication

Technical definition

Reflected in scatter of offers received from vendors (LHC experience)

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Observed tender pricesObserved tender pricesfor LHC accelerator componentsfor LHC accelerator components

All data (218 offers)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1.25 1.

51.

75 22.

25 2.5

2.75 3

3.25 3.

53.

75 44.

25 4.5

4.75 5

Mor

e

Tender price relative to lowest bid [bin upper limit]

Fre

qu

en

cy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Frequency

Exponential fit

Adjusted to mean (1.46) and total number (218) of sample

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Sampling from an exponential PDFSampling from an exponential PDF(m=0, (m=0, =1)=1)

• In response to an invitation to tender, consider n (valid) offers distributed according to an exponential PDF: application of the CERN purchasing rule will lead to select the lowest bidder

• What is the PDF of the lowest bidders, i.e. of the prices effectively paid?

• In the following, reasoning on the integral PDF

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x

f(x)

Exponentielle

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x

F(x

)

Exponentielle

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

From distribution of offersFrom distribution of offersto distribution of pricesto distribution of prices

• Consider two valid offers X1, X2 following same exponential distribution with P(Xi<x) = F(x) = 1 – exp[-a(x-b)]⇒ m = b + 1/a and = 1/a

• Price paid (lowest valid offer) is Y = min(X1, X2): what is the probability distribution of Y?

• Estimate P(Y<x) = P(X1<x or X2<x) = G(x)• Combined probability theorem

P(X1<x or X2<x) = P(X1<x) + P(X2<x) – P(X1<x and X2<x)• If X1 and X2 uncorrelated, P(X1<x and X2<x) = P(X1<x) * P(X2<x) • Hence, P(X1<x or X2<x) = P(X1<x) + P(X2<x) – P(X1<x) * P(X2<x)

and G(x) = 2 F(x) – F(x)2 = 1 – exp[-2a(x-b)]⇒ Y follows exponential distribution with m = b + 1/2a and = 1/2a

• By recurrence, if n uncorrelated valid offers X1, X2,…Xn are received, the price paid Y = min (X1, X2,…Xn) will follow an exponential distribution with m = b + 1/na and = 1/na

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Dispersion of pricesDispersion of pricesdue to procurement uncertaintiesdue to procurement uncertainties

• For LHC accelerator components– 48 contracts– 218 offers, i.e. 4.54 offers per contract on average

• From exponential fit of statistical data on offers, m = 1.46, = 0.46• We can therefore estimate the expected relative dispersion on paid

prices = 0.46/4.54 ≈ 0.1

⇒ based on LHC experience, the relative standard deviation on component prices due to procurement uncertainties can be taken as 50/n %, where n is the expected number of valid offers

ContentsContents

• Cost of high-energy acceleratorsCost of high-energy accelerators• Cost estimate methods, organization & toolsCost estimate methods, organization & tools• Feedback to technical design & optimizationFeedback to technical design & optimization• Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning Large series, manufacturing techniques & learning

curvescurves• Elements of cost risk analysisElements of cost risk analysis• Coping with exchange rates & cost escalation

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Exchange rates and cost escalationExchange rates and cost escalation

• Exchange rate fluctuations should ideally reflect evolution of purchasing power of currencies, but– Economic parities offset by financial effects– Variety of escalation indices in each currency

• Choose « reference currency » (CHF) and apply relevant escalation indices in reference country (Office Fédéral de la Statistique)

Currency A

Time 1

Currency B

Time 1

Exchange rate 1

Currency A

Time 2

Currency B

Time 2

Exchange rate 2

Escalation

Index a

Escalation

Index b?

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Industrial price indices (CH)Industrial price indices (CH)

Indice des prix à la production, SuisseSource: Office Fédéral de la Statistique

(Indices de la construction ramenés à mai 2003 = 100)

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

Jan-

08

Feb-0

8

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct-08

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-

09

Feb-0

9

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Oct-09

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Month-Year

Métaux [mai 2003 = 100]

Machines [mai 2003 = 100]

Caoutchouc, plastiques [mai 2003 = 100]

Appareils électriques [mai 2003 = 100]

Construction bâtiment [mai 2003 = 100]

Construction génie civil [mai 2003 = 100]

Global arts & métiers industrie [mai 2003 = 100]

Global construction [mai 2003 = 100]

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Comparison of Swiss industrial and CERN materials indices (base 100 = June 2002)

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Month-Year

Cu

rren

t va

lue

CH Global Arts et Métiers Industrie

CH Global Construction

CERN Materials

Swiss vs CERN indicesSwiss vs CERN indices

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

Proposed methodProposed methodfor CLIC cost risk assessmentfor CLIC cost risk assessment

• Separate cost risk factors in three classes, assumed independent– Technical design maturity & evolution of configuration

• Judgement of « domain responsible »

• Rank in 3 levels, defining numerical values of config

– Price uncertainty in industrial procurement• Estimate n number of valid offers to be received

• Apply industry = 50/n %

– Economical & financial context• Deterministic• Track currency exchange rates and industrial indices

• Estimate r.m.s. sum of config and industry

• Compensate economical & financial effects– Choice of CHF as reference currency– Applications of compound indices from Office Fédéral de la Statistique

(CH)• Arts et métiers – Industrie for technical components• Construction for civil engineering

Ph. Lebrun - 100426

A few referencesA few references

• I. Chvidchenko, Gestion des grands projets, Cours de Sup’Aéro, CEPADUES Editions, Toulouse (1992)

• C. Roche, Government, industry, accelerators, Frontiers of Accelerator Technology, World Scientific (1996) pp. 743-757

• Ph. Lebrun, Estimation du coût marginal de l’énergie consommée par la cryogénie du LHC, LHC Project Note 92 (1997)

• S. Claudet et al., Economics of large helium cryogenic systems: experience from recent projects at CERN, Adv. Cryo. Eng. 45B Plenum Publishers (2000), pp. 1301-1308

• Management de projet: gestion du risque, norme FD X 50-117, AFNOR, Saint Denis (2003)

• Project Risk Management, in PMBOK® Guide, 3rd edition, Project Management Institute, Newton Square (2004), pp. 237-268

• P. Fessia et al., Industrial learning curves: series production of the LHC main superconducting dipoles, IEEE Trans. Appl. Superconductivity 17 2 (2007) pp. 1101-1104

• The CLIC Study Team, CLIC 2008 parameters, CLIC Note 764 (2008)• GAO Cost Estimating & Assessment Guide, United States Government

Accountability Office, GAO-09-3SP (2009)• P. Garbincius et al., Assessing risk in costing high-energy accelerators:

from existing projects to the future linear collider, submitted to IPAC’2010, Kyoto (2010)