Pfaa Cmai Glomo-may09

8/13/2019 Pfaa Cmai Glomo-may09

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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009

Singapore Shanghai Houston New York London Dsseldorf Dubai

Petrochemical FeedstockPetrochemical FeedstockAssociation of the AmericasAssociation of the Americas

Houston !"Houston !"#a$ %& %''(#a$ %& %''(

Global Light Olefins Market Outlook

Impact Of A Global Recession

Chuck CarrDirector , Propylene StudiesCMAI !ouston, "#ccarr$c%aiglobal&co%


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Petroche%ical SupplyChain Dyna%ics

Petroche%icals'nergy Deri(ati(es

Con(ertersConsu%ers)etail


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Current MarketConditions

I%pact of 'cono%ic *

'nergy +actorsalancing -e. Capacity

* Slo.ing De%andGro.th

Cycle"rough Conditions/nder.ay

0uestions * Ans.ers


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)urrent State of the *ndustr$

#arket

Fundamental Status +hat it is !elling ,s

De%and Slow reco-er$ from ./'0 Cautious consu%ers

Supply Aggressi-e 1ate )uts Li%ited Market /pside

Capacity Ample and 23panding Cyclic Do.nturn /nder.ay

#arkets ha-e entered a structurall$ long period withmuted demand growth more capacit$ still to come4

Cash Costs #o-ing with energ$ Short ter% %argin gains

Sector Prices Protecting min margins )esponding to slo. de%and

Chain Margins #ost at 5are #inimums !igh Cost eing Pushed Out


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/&S& )etail Sales

12&2

3&2

4&2

5&2

6&2

2&2

6&2

5&2

4&2

3&2

12&2

16&2

15&2

14&2

31 37 38 39 3: :1 :7 :8 :9 :: 21 27 28 29 2:

Percent ;ear?>ear Change

)ec

ession)ecession )ecession

)ecession


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/&S& GDP (s& Manufacturing ProductionPercent ;


7/36Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009

/&S& 'thylene Supply?De%and Outlook



"rade data through Dec23

!urricane I%pact


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Current Market Conditions

I%pact of 'cono%ic *'nergy +actors

alancing -e. Capacity* Slo.ing De%andGro.th

Cycle"rough Conditions

/nder.ayOther Olefins

0uestions * Ans.ers



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!he 5ad News!he 5ad News+orse global recession since &(60 7 no one remembers+orse global recession since &(60 7 no one remembers

)onsumer ad-erse to spending8 o-erl$ indebted alread$)onsumer ad-erse to spending8 o-erl$ indebted alread$Auto *ndustr$ li-ing on in-entor$ 7 focused on sur-i-alAuto *ndustr$ li-ing on in-entor$ 7 focused on sur-i-al

*nflation likel$ to become a significant issue near term*nflation likel$ to become a significant issue near term

)redit still somewhat restricted8 high debt load might be fatal)redit still somewhat restricted8 high debt load might be fatalDe-eloped economies in decline 7 rest barel$ growing if at allDe-eloped economies in decline 7 rest barel$ growing if at all

#an$ Factors Are )urrentl$ )reating Se-ere9olatilit$ *n the :lobal #arkets


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!he :ood News!he :ood News#uch lower energ$ prices ;releases< beneficial spending=#uch lower energ$ prices ;releases< beneficial spending=

)onsumers see prices falling for food and other commodities)onsumers see prices falling for food and other commodities

,nemplo$ment benefits e3tended > foreclosures dela$ed,nemplo$ment benefits e3tended > foreclosures dela$ed)onstruction costs declining8 interests rates at historic low)onstruction costs declining8 interests rates at historic low

Ser-ices remain strong 7 especiall$ health care and ;legal


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'cono%ic Gro.th Co%parison;Constant 6229 /&S& Dollars=

5&2

6&2

2&2

6&2

5&2

4&2

3&2

:2 :6 :5 :4 :3 22 26 25 24 23 12 16 15

Percent Change

Eorld -& A%erica S& A%erica E& 'urope S' Asia -' Asia


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asic Che%icals * Plastics".o>ear )olling A(erage De%and Gro.th

Million Metric "ons

Current Log& "rend ;Current=

".o>ears 'nding in2

8

12

18

62

68

72

78

:1 :7 :8 :9 :: 21 27 28 29 2: 11 17 18


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Global 'thylene De%and Gro.th

Ma@or Setback In 6223Ma@or Setback In 6223


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6223 Global 'thylene Cash Cost Cur(e

MD'

E'P

-'A

S'A

-AM

SAM

Dollars Per "on

82

682

582

482

382

1282

1682

1582

1482

1382

Cu%ulati(e 'thylene Capacity ;Million "ons=

2 62 52 42 32 122 162 152 142 132

/&S& Gulf Coast -atural Gas F 3&::?MM turent Crude Oil F :9&81?bl ;17&14?MM tu=

Alberta C'' per metric tonad-antage in %''0

Ad(antageB Middle 'astAd(antageB Middle 'ast


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6223 "otal Production69 Million Metric "ons

Propane

19ears In Global


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ision Of "he -et +i(e >ears In Global'thylene * Deri(ati(es Markets

Global de%and gro.th suffers foranother year or %ore

-ear ter%, ne. capacity slightlydelayed but i%pact on %arkets is

una(oidable-orth A%erica retains so%e Jeport

opportunitiesK but finished goodsi%ports .ill continue to accelerate

Consolidations and closures occurreco(ery signs appear by 6216N

otto%ofcycle profitability likely topersist for 67 years


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HoustonHouston

LondonLondon

SingaporeSingapore

DubaiDubai

New YorkNew York

ShanghaiShanghai

DuesseldorfDuesseldorf

!HAN YE, )ontact an$ )#A* location to assist in $our

petrochemicals market anal$sis

Contact Infor%ation A(ailable at )#A*:LE5AL=)E#

C!'MICAL MA)'" ASSOCIA"'S, I-C&

/ S Propylene Supply?De%and Outlook


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P t h i l F d t k A i ti f th A i M 2009P t h i l F d t k A i ti f th A i M 2009

/&S& Propylene Supply?De%and Outlook

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Pfaa Cmai Glomo-may09