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Morgan Stanley13th Annual Global Electricity
and Energy Conference
Peter ScottChief Financial Officer
New YorkMarch 16, 2006
Morgan Stanley13th Annual Global Electricity
and Energy Conference
Peter ScottChief Financial Officer
New YorkMarch 16, 2006
Discussion Topics2005 Accomplishments and 2006 Priorities
Utilities
Progress Ventures
Coal and Synthetic Fuel
Financial Objectives
Plans for Reducing Holding Company Debt
2005 Accomplishments 2005 Accomplishments andand
2006 Priorities2006 Priorities
Discussion Topic
2005 Accomplishments1. Enter 2006 with projected core business EPS growth that supports
dividend growth for 18th consecutive year
2. Sustain record of excelling at the basics – generation performance, T&D reliability, customer satisfaction and employee safety
3. Implement organization and process changes to eliminate $75M to $100M in projected non-fuel O&M growth by end of 2007
4. Reduce leverage and recover stable investment grade rating at the holding company
5. Make progress on IRS tax audit of Earthco synthetic fuel plants
6. Successfully resolve Florida rate case and recovery of storm costs
7. Negotiate a reasonable bargaining unit contract
2005 Regulatory ProceedingsFuel recovery – South Carolina
Fuel recovery – North Carolina
Fuel recovery – Florida
2004 storm cost recovery
2005 PEF rate case
2006 Priorities1. Excel in the fundamentals2. Prepare for future baseload generation capacity3. Sustain earnings growth for 2006 and beyond4. Continue reducing Holding Company debt 5. Stay on track with cost savings objectives6. Successfully resolve Earthco synthetic fuel audits7. Improve Progress Ventures return on investment
UtilitiesUtilities
Discussion Topic
Utilities Overview
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
9,000 MW capacity1.6M customers
12,500 MW capacity1.4M customers
Carolinas
Florida
Service Area
A Strong Record of Growth
Annual Customers
(in th
ousa
nds)
1,2131,246
1,2761,302
1,325
1,3821,352
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Annual Customers
(in th
ousa
nds)
1,3771,407
1,4761,511
1,578
1,443
1,548
1,2501,3001,350
1,4001,4501,5001,550
1,6001,650
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CGR = 2.4%CGR = 2.2%
Progress Energy Carolinas Progress Energy Florida
Added over 70,000 new customers in 2005
Regulatory UpdateProgress Energy Florida (PEF)
Rate stability through mid-2010Base rate increase upon completion of Hines 4FL legislative session in progress
Progress Energy Carolinas (PEC)NC – rate freeze through 2007SC – no rate action expected
Fuel Clause Filings by State
$315M$40M$255MDec. 31, 2005 deferred balance
YesYes NoMid-year adjustment option?
Jan. 1July 1Oct. 1Effective date of new rates
1/1 – 12/317/1 – 6/3010/1 – 9/30Test period
SeptemberMayJuneFuel filing date
FloridaSouth CarolinaNorth Carolina
Environmental ComplianceNC Clean Smokestacks
Est. total spend: $1.1B - $1.4BExpenditures to date: $294M
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)PEF Est. total spend: ≅ $1.0B
Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR)
Utility Value Drivers
Rate stabilityRate stability ● PEC rate freeze through end of 2007● PEF rate stability through mid-2010
● Added 73,000 new customers during 2005● Increase in electric sales of 2+%
● New contracts at both utilities during 2005● Opportunities for excess generation
Cost management initiativeCost management initiative ● Timing of cost management initiative savings● Realization of benefits
Strong retail revenue growthStrong retail revenue growth
Wholesale opportunitiesWholesale opportunities
Rate base growthRate base growth● New generation at PEC and PEF● Environmental clause at PEF● NCUC to decide on environmental expenditures by 2007
Progress VenturesProgress Ventures
Discussion Topic
Progress Ventures Overview
Competitive Commercial Operations Winchester Gas
325 bcfe proven gas reserves325 bcfe proven gas reserves≅≅ 175 bcfe probable gas 175 bcfe probable gas reservesreserves+/+/-- 25 bcfe annual production25 bcfe annual production
3,100 MW of competitive 3,100 MW of competitive generation in servicegeneration in serviceContractual management/ Contractual management/ scheduling of 2,500 MWs of scheduling of 2,500 MWs of Georgia system generationGeorgia system generationFocus on SoutheastFocus on Southeast
Henry Hub
PV Gas Properties
Pipeline Access
Progress Ventures
Washington
WaltonRowan
Effingham
Monroe
DeSoto
Cooperatives served
History of Natural Gas Properties2000 - Acquired Florida Progress, including Mesa Hydrocarbons
2002 - Acquired Winchester to provide natural hedge for GA contracts ($150M)
2003 - Acquired 190 bcfe of proven reserves from Republic ($170M)
2003 - Sold Mesa Hydrocarbons ($100M)
2004 - Sold North Texas gas assets ($250M)
2005 - Acquired 25 bcfe of proven reserves from Enerquest($50M)
125
30 325
175
0
250
500
12/31/02 12/31/2005
Proved Probable
Creating Value in Natural Gas
Key Points
● Cash flow ≅ capex
● Production = 25± bcfe
● Low risk
Key Points
● Cash flow ≅ capex
● Production = 25± bcfe
● Low risk
Reserves in bcfe
$1.3 Billion value per year-end reserve report
Progress Ventures Portfolio Optimization
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007
Set aside for CCO Hedged Open
2006 hedged position is at prices higher than 2005
In bcfe
+/-
35%
65%
35%
30%
35%
Progress Ventures Generation Three Separate Markets
*Gas/oil capabilitiesService Territories
Plant Site Customer MWs
Rowan* CT Duke Toll (2010) 459
Rowan* CC 225 MW S.T. deals 466
Total ,925
Plant Site Customer MWs
Monroe* CT Georgia EMCs 315
Walton CT Georgia EMCs 460
Effingham CC Georgia EMCs 480
Washington CT Georgia EMCs 600
Total …….1,855
Plant Site Customer MWs
Desoto* CT FPL Toll (2007) 320
Total ,320
Progress Ventures Value Drivers
Valuable reservesValuable reserves ● Increased proven reserves by 74 bcfe in 2005● Plans to drill 70+ new wells in 2006
● 8 bcfe set-aside provides natural hedge for CCO● Hedging most of remaining production at prices
higher than 2005
● Active in Southeast wholesale market● Seeking additional market opportunities
● Opportunity for leverage● Opportunity for selective sales
Conservative risk management
Conservative risk management
● Gas hedges● Gas reserves● Off-peak hedges
Gas production of 25-27 bcfe
Gas production of 25-27 bcfe
Competitive Commercial Operations
Competitive Commercial Operations
Debt freeDebt free
Coal and Synthetic Coal and Synthetic FuelsFuels
Discussion Topic
Synthetic Fuel Audit StatusReceived Technical Advice Memorandum confirming the IRS National Office has determined our Earthco facilities met the placed-in-service criteria:
Removes uncertainty regarding the significant cash flow benefitsAnticipates receiving written confirmation from Field Audit Staff in Q2
As of Dec. 31, $1.25 billion of tax credits generated by Earthco plants
Oil Price Phaseout Scenario
NYMEX WTI prices used as proxy for EIA wellhead price, which historically has been a $5-6 spread
$55$57$59
$61$63$65$67$69
$71$73$75
2006 2007
Ave
rage
Ann
ual N
YMEX
Pric
e
Phaseout begins
Breakeven point
Full phaseout$71.56
$64.67
$58.19
$72.22
$65.26
$58.71
Cash Impact from Utilization of Synthetic Fuel Tax Credits
($70)
($35)
$0
$35
$70
$105
$140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cash operating losses go
away
Cash operating losses go
away
Increased ability to utilize synthetic fuel credits
Increased ability to utilize synthetic fuel credits
● Increase in operating cash flow post-synthetic fuel production●Unused credits at 12/31/05 ≅ $1.0 billion● Increase in operating cash flow post-synthetic fuel production●Unused credits at 12/31/05 ≅ $1.0 billion
($ in millions)
Plans for 2006Producing minimal quantities in Q1 due to oil prices
Monitoring Tax Reconciliation Bill Establishes the average annual price and phase-out prices based on previous calendar yearProvides opportunity for 12 million tons of production in 2006, if passed
Evaluating plans for other non-core businessesApproved plan to divest coal minesDivested Dixie Fuels in March for $16M net proceeds
Financial ObjectivesFinancial Objectives
Discussion Topic
PGN Financial ObjectivesProvide consistent and sustainable core business EPS growth
3% – normal wholesale5% – with excess wholesale opportunities
Increase return on Progress Ventures investmentsSeek additional electric opportunities in SoutheastContinue development of reserves at East Texas and Louisiana gasproperties
Continue efforts to reduce holding company debtImprove operating cash flowEvaluate strategic alternatives to divest non-core assets
Continue to grow the dividendTarget a long-term payout ratio post 2007 of 70%-75%Maximum payout of 85% of core business earnings post-2007
2006 Projected Ongoing Earnings
$3.15 - $3.35Ongoing EPS*$2.45 - $2.65Core ongoing EPS*
$810Total ongoing earnings175Coal and synthetic fuels (non-core)
$635Total Core(185)Corporate and Other
25Progress Ventures$795Utilities2006
• EPS based on weighted average shares of 250M• See Appendix for discussion of the 2006 ongoing earnings adjustments
($ in millions)
2006 Projected Capital Expenditures
140156Progress Ventures
502PEF CAIR
$1,770$1,366Total Capital Expenditures5017Other
$1,060875Maintenance
$1,580$1,193Total Utilities520318Growth250201Distribution and Transmission
220115New generation
70125Nuclear fuel / decommissioning320235PEC Environmental
$670$515Base capitalUtilities
20062005($ in millions)
2006 Projected Cash Flows
(520)(318)Utility growth cap ex
19517Cash Flow before growth cap ex
$(280)$163Cash flow before debt activities
(190)(219)Ventures growth and other cap ex
100208Equity issuance135475Asset sales
(515)(520)Cash flow after dividend and cap ex
(610)(582)Dividend(1,060)(875)Utility maintenance cap ex$1,865$1,474Operating cash flow20062005($ in millions)
Plans for Reducing Plans for Reducing Holding Company DebtHolding Company Debt
Discussion Topic
Divestitures and Holding Company Debt Reduction
DIVESTITURESUPCOMING MATURITIESDEBT PAYOFFS
• MEMCO Barge
• NCNG
• Mesa
• Railcar, Ltd.
• North Texas Gas
• Progress Rail
• Progress Telecom
• Dixie Fuels
• Lease
• Genco
• Holdco*
$230M
$240M
$900M
• 2007
• 2008
• 2010
• 2011
• QUIPS*
$350M
$400M
$100M
$1,250M
$300M
$1.6 Billion $2.4 Billion$1.4 Billion
* - callable Quarterly Income Preferred Securities; due 2039
Debt Reduction Plan
Complete selected asset sales or monetizationsof ≅ $1.3B by end of 2007
Accomplish in accretive manner to the core business
Payoff or buyback holding company debt
Options to Fund Debt ReductionProgress Telecom…………………..
Dixie Fuels…………………………..
Financial gas hedges at CCO……
Coal mining assets…………………
River terminals……………………..
Merchant plants……………………..
Natural gas properties……………..
Unused synthetic fuel tax credits….
$70M net proceeds
$15M net proceeds
$100M FMV
$60M NBV
$40M NBV
$1.3B NBV
$1.3B per valuation report$1.0B BV
$3.9 Billion
Post-2007 Results of Debt Reduction
Restored balance sheet
Reduced dividend requirement from subsidiaries
Created capacity for greater capital investment at utilities
Increased Core EPS
Made the Parent dividend sustainable
Financing Baseload Construction post-2010(Illustrative Example)
150Capital infusion
$ 500Increase in Utility Equity
(650)Dividend to Parent
$1,000Utility Earnings
($ in millions)
$2,000Cash Available for CapEx
500Incremental Debt
150Capital infusion
(650)Dividend to Parent
$2,000Utility Cash Flow
Key Points
● Maintains appropriate capital structure
● Provides for accretive rate base expansion
Key Points
● Maintains appropriate capital structure
● Provides for accretive rate base expansion
PGN Financial Themes:2006 and BeyondStrengthen financial flexibility and credit quality
Risk reductionHolding company debt reduction
Ensure post-2007 synthetic fuel cash flow used for corporate purposes
Provide visibility of core business strategy and financial plans
Grow Core EPS at 3-5% and sustain dividend growth
Steady Increases for 30 of Past 31 Years
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Dividends Paid
(18 years in a row)(18 years in a row)
(Ind.
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
# of
per
iods
out
perfo
rmin
g th
e fiv
e-ye
ar m
ean
A Superior Buy-and-Hold Stock 18 rolling five-year periods (1983 through 2005)
PGNPGN
Peer group includes: AEP, Allegheny, Centerpoint, Cinergy, Con Ed, Constellation, CMS, Dominion, Duke, DTE, Edison International, Entergy, Exelon, FPL, Northeast Utilities, PG&E, PSEG, PPL, Pinnacle West, SCANA, Southern, TECO, TXU, Wisconsin Energy and Xcel
Each bar = one company in peer groupHeight of bar = number of periods exceeding five-year mean return
AppendixAppendix
2005 Utility Fuel Mix
Gas/Oil33%
Coal33%
Nuclear13%
Progress Energy FloridaProgress Energy Florida
Gas/Oil4%
Coal47%
Nuclear42%
Hydro1%
Progress Energy CarolinasProgress Energy Carolinas
PurchasedPower
6%
PurchasedPower21%
Environmental Compliance ProgramsNC Clean Smokestacks
Amortization ranges from $0 - $174M annually
$395M recorded to date; $570M by 2007
Estimated total capital expenditures: $1.1B - $1.4B
$294M spent to date
PEF CAIR
Recovered through Environmental Cost Recovery Clause
11.75% ROE specified in rate settlement agreement
Categorized as growth capital
Estimated cost: ≅ $1.0B
Natural Gas Proven Reserves
247
32529
73 (24)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 ProvenReserves
Acquisitions Proved reservesduring year
Production 2005 Provenreserves
Proving up of Natural Gas Reserves
bcfe
Continuing to add value through self-funding drilling program
CCO Net Book Value of Plants
Desoto $125M
GA CT $500MGA CC $275M
Rowan CT $175MRowan CC $200M
$1.3 Billion
Synthetic Fuel and Coal Businesses
• Synthetic fuels• Coal mining• Coal marketing• Terminal operations
Strategic Advantages• Physical assets• Market presence• Operational excellence
Synthetic Fuels OverviewSection 29/45 tax credits
Basic economicsOperating loss on productionTax credit per ton soldTaxes paid at the AMT rate
Production capability up to 16M tons per year
Coal BusinessesDixie Fuels
Divested March 2005NBV: $14 million Net proceeds $16 million
Coal mining operationsPlan to divestNBV: $60-70 million
River terminalsEvaluating optionsNBV: $40 million
2006 Ongoing Earnings Adjustments
Contingent Value Obligation (CVO) Mark-to-Market - In connection with the acquisition of Florida Progress Corporation, Progress Energy issued 98.6 M CVOs. Each CVO represents the right to receive contingent payments based on after-tax cash flows above certain levels of four synthetic fuel facilities purchased by subsidiaries of Florida Progress Corporation in October 1999. The CVOs are debt instruments and, under GAAP, are valued at market value. Unrealized gains and losses from changes in market value are recognized in earnings each quarter. Since changes in the market value of the CVOs do not affect the company’s underlying obligation, management does not consider the adjustment a component of ongoing earnings.
Progress Telecom LLC Discontinued Operations – On January 26, 2006, we announced that Level 3 signed a definitive agreement to acquire Progress Telecom LLC, which is jointly owned by Progress Energy and Odyssey Telecorp, Inc. Closing is expected to occur early in the second quarter of 2006. Closing is subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of applicable state and federal regulatory approvals. Due to our plans to dispose of these assets, management does not believe this activity is representative of ongoing operations of the company.
Coal Mine Discontinued Operations – On November 14, 2005, our Board of Directors approved a plan to divest of our coal mining operations and, as a result, we have classified the coal mining operations as discontinued operations. Due to our commitment to dispose of these assets, management does not believe this activity is representative of ongoing operations of the company.
Progress Energy’s management uses ongoing earnings per share to evaluate the operations of the company and to establish goals for management and employees. Management believes this presentation is appropriate and enables investors to more accurately compare the company’s ongoing financial performance over the periods presented.
The 2006 earnings guidance of $3.15 to $3.35 per share excludes any impacts from the CVO mark-to-market adjustment and discontinued operations of Progress Telecom LLC and our coal mining operations. Therefore, Progress Energy is not able to provide a corresponding GAAP equivalent for 2006 earnings guidance figures. Reconciling adjustments from GAAP earnings to ongoing earnings are as follows: