Peter Mayfield Director

CSIRO Energy Flagship

Future Grid Forum

Set and forget Leaving the grid

Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

Future Grid Forum scenarios

Solar panel uptake has been rapid since 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2005-06 2006-06 2007-06 2008-06 2009-06 2010-06 2011-06 2012-06 2013-06 2014-06

MW

Reported Estimated

Source: APVI

Business models evolution

• Solar panels • Solar panels with storage • Stand alone storage

What

• Small energy service companies • Electricity retailers • Financial and technological global corporations

Who

• Money upfront • Pay as you go • Leasing models

How

Battery storage costs have declined, with further potential

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

2014

US$

/kW

h

Source: Nykvist and Nilsson (2015)

Ranking of Australia’s residential electricity prices among developed countries

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Canada

United States

Australia

Germany

US cents/kWh